Baseball's playoffs are always unpredictable -- just look back to last season when two wild-card teams faced off in the World Series -- but they've never been more unpredictable than this season.
For the first time in a full season since 2014, it appears no team will win 100 games. The two best teams since the All-Star break haven't been any of the current division leaders but the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves could win it all -- or miss the playoffs altogether, since they're battling for the final wild-card spot in the National League. The Kansas City Royals have the chance to become the first team to go from 100 losses to World Series champs in consecutive seasons.
With two weeks to go in the 2024 MLB regular season, let's take stock of the 13 teams currently in best position to make the playoffs in a special edition of Real or Not. We're breaking the teams into two groups: the favorites (based on proven success and 2024 record) and the spoilers. For the favorites, we'll look at what issue might prevent them from winning the World Series; for the spoilers, we'll look at why they can win it all. Then we'll make a final verdict on each team's ultimate chance in October.
Let's start with the best team in the majors.
THE FAVORITES
Philadelphia Phillies
Real or Not: The Phillies' offense will once again fail to click for the entirety of October.
The Phillies will enter this postseason in a different position than the past two: as NL East champions for the first time since 2011, and perhaps as the overall favorite. After making it all the way to the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the National League Championship Series in 2023, this is a better Phillies team. That's primarily due to a deeper pitching staff, both in the rotation with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez and in the bullpen with the addition of closer Carlos Estevez at the trade deadline.
On offense, it's the same cast of big names. In 2022, that group swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the wild-card series, upset the Braves in the NL Division Series and beat the Padres in the NLCS before taking a 2-1 lead over the Astros in the World Series. Through those 14 postseason games, the Phillies had slugged 22 home runs and averaged 5.1 runs per game. In Game 4 of the World Series, the Astros spun a combined no-hitter. The Phillies scored two runs in Game 5 and one run in Game 6. They hit .101 over those final three losses.
Last season, they beat the Miami Marlins in the wild card, once again upset the Braves in the division series and were up 3-2 on the Diamondbacks in the NLCS when heading back home for Game 6. They lost 5-1 and 4-2 the final two games of the series as the offense stumbled badly again at the wrong time. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been terrific the past two postseasons, both hitting 11 home runs in 30 games, with Harper posting a 1.137 OPS and Schwarber a .987. Those two can be streaky, however, so the Phillies will need more from the bottom of the order. Alec Bohm has hit .231 with two home runs over those 30 playoff games; Bryson Stott has hit .189 with a .552 OPS; Johan Rojas went 4-for-43 without an RBI last year; Nick Castellanos was 1-for-24 in the NLCS and went hitless the final six games. They'll need a couple from that group to step up all the way through the World Series.
Verdict: Not Real. I love Zack Wheeler and his proven big-game results as the ace. I love the bullpen. I love Harper's ability to produce in big moments. And I love the Phillies' offense just enough to think this might be their year. The odd thing about those postseason-ending losses to Houston and Arizona is they both came at home, but the Phillies have had a big home-field advantage in the regular season this year. Hold it together at home in October in front of those passionate fans and they can hoist their first World Series trophy since 2008.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Real or Not: Pitching injuries will prevent the Dodgers from winning the World Series.
Well ... and I know Dodgers fans will confirm this with sad sighs ... it's looking a lot like last season, when the Dodgers won 100 games only to enter the postseason with so many injuries in the rotation that they had to start Clayton Kershaw, who had a sore shoulder, and Lance Lynn, who had led the majors in home runs allowed. No matter how many pitchers they sign or trade for, no matter how many promising starters they call up, the Dodgers just haven't been able to get their rotation where they need it for October the past few postseasons.
On Saturday, manager Dave Roberts announced that it was "highly unlikely" that Tyler Glasnow, who has a right elbow sprain, would pitch again this season. Gavin Stone, who leads the team in starts and innings, has been out since early September with shoulder inflammation. Kershaw remains out with a toe injury. Roberts said he didn't "see how it's on the table" for Kershaw to return in the regular season, so are you going to trust him in a playoff game after not pitching in a month?
Let's see who that leaves:
Jack Flaherty: Acquired at the trade deadline from the Detroit Tigers in a deal that looks even more important now than it did then.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: He made his first start since June last week and pitched well with eight strikeouts in four innings, and then followed that up with four scoreless innings on Monday.
Walker Buehler: He has one win in 13 starts and a 5.95 ERA.
Bobby Miller: I don't know what's happened to him after an excellent rookie season in 2023, but he has an 8.17 ERA.
Landon Knack: He has had 10 starts scattered throughout the season, including two in September in which he allowed seven runs in eight innings.
It's a mess. Heck, Roberts didn't even rule out the possibility of Shohei Ohtani returning to pitch at some point in October, although given the logistics of his DH duties, it would be difficult to use him out of the bullpen and have him warm up midgame.
Verdict: Real. No matter what, even if Stone and Kershaw get healthy, the Dodgers are going to have to rely heavily on the bullpen. And as Dodgers fans will tell you, making the right bullpen decisions hasn't exactly been a strength of Roberts throughout his postseason career -- and this bullpen hasn't been as dominant in the regular season as some other recent Dodgers bullpens (the 2024 pen is 11th in the majors in ERA since the All-Star break). All this puts pressure on an offense that didn't show up last October, scoring two runs in each of the three losses to Arizona. A key guy to watch there: Mookie Betts, who has hit .079 with one RBI his past 10 postseason games.
New York Yankees
Real or Not: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto don't have enough help in the lineup for a playoff run.
Since the expanded playoffs began in 1995, 30 teams that made the playoffs have had at least two hitters with 400 plate appearances and a 150 OPS+ (three of those teams had three hitters). Using estimated runs created, we can determine what percentage of the team's overall runs scored those top two hitters were responsible for. Given their numbers, it's not surprising that Judge and Soto put the Yankees in a class of their own. On average, the top two hitters for those 30 teams created 30.7% of the offense; Judge and Soto, meanwhile, have created about 40.6% of the Yankees' offense. Only three other duos were even above 34%: the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers at 37.9% (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder); the 2012 Tigers at 36.2% (Miguel Cabrera, Fielder); and the 2004 Cardinals at 35.2% (Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds).
So, the Yankees are certainly unique to rely so much on two hitters. But does it mean anything? They have still scored the most runs in the American League and more than any NL team except the Diamondbacks. For what it's worth, 11 of the 30 teams mentioned above reached the World Series and five of them won it (the 2011 Cardinals, 2012 San Francisco Giants, 2017 Houston Astros, 2018 Boston Red Sox and 2022 Astros). Of those champions, the Yankees probably most resemble the 2018 Red Sox, who relied on Betts and J.D. Martinez for 34% of their offense.
Plus, the Yankees' offense now features Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been outstanding since coming over from the Marlins. Anthony Rizzo is back off the injured list, although we'll see if he has anything left in the tank. Austin Wells and Giancarlo Stanton have been above-average hitters. Yes, it feels mostly like a two-man lineup -- but it's also maybe the best pair since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
Verdict: Not Real. Judge and Soto are going to have to hit, end of story. They'll need somebody else to step up, just like the Red Sox had Steve Pearce in 2018, but I see no reason to conclude the lack of lineup depth is the reason the Yankees won't win. If Judge and Soto hit like they have in the regular season, they'll score enough runs. Now, if you want to bring up the closer situation or maybe Gerrit Cole intentionally walking Rafael Devers with nobody on base on Saturday, those potential issues could be reasons the Yankees don't win.
Milwaukee Brewers
Real or Not: The lineup lacks the star -- or stars -- needed for a World Series run.
You could make the same argument about the Brewers' starting rotation, but let's focus on a lineup that ranks fourth in the NL in runs scored -- but is without Christian Yelich, who had been the team's best hitter before going on the IL in late July and eventually opting for season-ending back surgery. In Yelich's absence, William Contreras leads the team with a 132 OPS+. When he gets hot -- like in April, when he hit .345, or in August, when he hit nine home runs with an OPS over 1.000 -- he's a tough out. But he's not necessarily a hitter opponents fear. Willy Adames and rookie Jackson Chourio are next in production with Joey Ortiz the only other regular with an OPS+ over 100.
Can you win without a big star in the lineup? If we set the minimum for "star" to a 130 OPS+, the answer is ... probably not. The last World Series champ without a 130 OPS+ regular in its lineup was the 1995 Braves -- but they had three pitchers named Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz (platoon outfielder Ryan Klesko fell just under our 400-plate appearance requirement and had a 158 OPS+). Most championship teams had at least two such hitters, although last year's Texas Rangers had just one in Corey Seager. Before that, you go back to the 2013 Red Sox and David Ortiz with just one (and they had seven regulars with an OPS+ between 110 and 130).
Verdict: Real. This is pretty strong evidence, especially when you also factor in a rotation that doesn't strike out a lot of batters. The Brewers have a great bullpen and catch the ball as well as any team, and I'd love to see them reach their first World Series since 1982 -- but I'm not sure they can score enough runs over multiple series. On the other hand, they've been proving everyone wrong all season.
Baltimore Orioles
Real or Not: The lack of starting pitching depth and a dominant closer will cost the Orioles in October.
Baltimore's pitching by month:
April: 3.75 ERA (13th in MLB)
May: 2.86 (third)
June: 3.73 (eighth)
July: 4.97 (24th)
August: 4.68 (22nd)
September: 3.38 (ninth)
The pitching was really good early on (perhaps surprisingly so), but then a bunch of starters got hurt and the staff has struggled the past two-plus months. There has been a little uptick in September, but the O's schedule has included the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays and Tigers (no great offenses in that group). My two questions here:
1. Has Corbin Burnes found himself again? He went 1-3 in August with a 7.36 ERA over five starts and wasn't missing a ton of bats. He got hammered in three starts against good lineups: the Red Sox, Astros and Dodgers (20 runs in 14⅔ innings). In three September starts, he has allowed four runs in 18 innings, including seven scoreless innings on Saturday against the Tigers. But those other two starts came against the White Sox and Rays. It's hard to envision a path to the World Series without the very excellent version of Burnes.
2. Do you trust Seranthony Dominguez as the closer? He has replaced Craig Kimbrel in that spot and is 8-for-8 in save chances, but he also has allowed six home runs in 19⅓ innings with the Orioles (and 12 on the season). They've all been solo home runs and two of them did give him a loss in the game (but not a blown save since it was a tie game). But I don't know -- I'm not sure the trust is there yet.
Verdict: Real. It certainly feels like the Orioles peaked in the first half -- but you can make the same argument about the Yankees. I'd feel a little better if Grayson Rodriguez were back, but he's yet to start a rehab assignment. I'm also not completely convinced Burnes is at the top of his game right now. However, Zach Eflin has been excellent with the Orioles (2.22 ERA in seven starts) and even Albert Suarez continues to produce good starts. In the end, though, it's that ninth inning that looks problematic.
Houston Astros
Real or Not: The Astros don't have enough pitching outside of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Josh Hader.
The Astros got off to a bad start as Valdez and Brown both struggled early on, but since the beginning of July, Valdez ranks third in the majors in ERA (1.95) and Brown 14th (2.78). That looks like as good of a 1-2 combo right now as any playoff team's, and Valdez has come up big before in the postseason.
Hader is a little more difficult to evaluate. I can't mention Dominguez's gopher ball problems without mentioning Hader's. He has allowed 12 home runs in 64⅓ innings, although he has managed to blow just two save opportunities all season (he does have seven losses, however). He's still hard to hit (.164 average allowed) and racks up the whiffs, with the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors among pitchers with 50 innings. Hader is certainly vulnerable, but he's also a guy with a dominant track record.
The Astros' staff isn't as deep as it was in their 2022 championship season, especially in the bullpen, but this isn't the same staff we saw the first two months. The Astros are 8-0 in Yusei Kikuchi's starts since they acquired him at the deadline, and his improvement looks legit: They've had him throw his slider about 20% more often while mostly dumping a slow curve, and now he looks like a strong No. 3 starter. Other than a recent terrible outing in Cincinnati when he got knocked out in the first inning, rookie Spencer Arrighetti has been excellent since the All-Star break, including three double-digit strikeout games. Ronel Blanco can start or head to the bullpen to provide a multi-inning arm for the playoffs. And then there's Justin Verlander.
Verdict: Not Real. There is enough pitching here to make another title run -- especially since you can compact your pitcher usage in the postseason. Not to mention these guys know how to win in October: The Astros have made a ridiculous seven straight ALCS appearances. The Verlander question, however, looms as perhaps as big a decision as any manager will make this postseason -- and it's a rookie manager in Joe Espada who has to make it. Do you dare bench a future Hall of Famer when he's not pitching like one of your top five starters?
THE TEAMS PLAYING SPOILER
Cleveland Guardians
Real or Not: The bullpen is dominant enough to carry them to a title.
The Guardians' bullpen leads the majors with a 2.65 ERA and a .202 average allowed, rank first in home runs per nine innings and second in strikeout rate and, of course, have the best closer in the game in Emmanuel Clase, who is having one of the best closer seasons of all time. It's been a dominant pen, with the likes of Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Eli Morgan and Cade Smith backing up Clase.
Is it enough for a team that projects to have the weakest rotation of any of the playoff teams?
Keep this in mind: Over the past three postseasons, relievers have accounted for 49% of all innings pitched. The past three World Series champions saw 47% of their postseason innings come from their relievers. With all the days off and a deep arsenal of relievers to pick from, manager Stephen Vogt can have extra-quick hooks on his starters and run a more aggressive bullpen than he does in the regular season.
Verdict: Real. It absolutely can work. It would certainly help the Guardians to win the division and earn one of the top two seeds, which would give them a little more rest before starting the ALDS and allow them to line up Tanner Bibee, their best starter, to start the first game in that series. And, yes, they'll have to score runs. But, you know, they have Jose Ramirez and he's awesome. In a lot of ways, this team is similar to the 2015 Royals: great bullpen, terrific defense and a lineup with just enough power to do damage. Let's put it this way: Nobody wants to face the Guardians and that bullpen.
San Diego Padres
Real or Not: Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. will turn into October superstars.
The Padres improved at the trade deadline, as general manager A.J. Preller went all-in on bullpen depth, adding Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing. Dylan Cease and Michael King give them a strong 1-2 at the top of the rotation. Luis Arraez slaps his singles and never strikes out (indeed, the Padres have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors).
Those are all positives. But I feel like the Padres' World Series hopes come down to Machado and Tatis -- after all, they are still the two who drive this team. Both have had up-and-down seasons. Machado hit just five home runs the first two months -- perhaps due to the offseason elbow surgery that limited him to DH duty in April. Since the beginning of June, however, he has hit .300/.348/.540 with 21 home runs in 87 games. That looks a lot like the Manny Machado who finished second in the 2022 MVP voting.
Tatis returned in September after missing more than two months with a stress reaction in his right thigh bone. He had played most of the season with pain in his right leg -- which helps explain why his defensive metrics that helped him win the Platinum Glove in 2023 as the NL's best overall defender were so poor to start the season. Now he's back and just homered in three straight games.
Verdict: Real. The Padres might be peaking at the right time. A healthy Machado. A healthier Tatis. Yu Darvish just returned after being out since May, giving them a potential solid No. 3 starter behind Cease and King. The bullpen is World Series-worthy. Rookie Jackson Merrill has delivered big hits all season and Xander Bogaerts -- remember him? -- is hitting close to .300 in the second half. Maybe this is the year all of Preller's maneuvering finally pays off.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Real or Not: The best offense in the majors will carry the Diamondbacks back to the World Series.
The Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs -- and it's not really close. They're averaging 5.49 runs per game with the Dodgers second at 5.00. They've been even better than that during their second-half surge, although Ketel Marte and Christian Walker both missed time. Aside from the season-long excellence of Marte and monster numbers from platoon DH Joc Pederson, Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez have been red hot. Carroll has slugged .566 with a .903 OPS since July 1, while Suarez has been even better: Since that date, he's tied for second in the majors with Judge with 22 home runs (one less than Brent Rooker), leads with 63 RBIs (one more than Rooker) and ranks sixth in OPS.
As good as the offense has been, however, the rotation remains worrisome. The big offseason signings of Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez haven't paid dividends, with Montgomery now relegated to a bullpen role due to poor performance and Rodriguez posting a 5.50 ERA in seven starts. The Diamondbacks still have Zac Gallen, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio has deteriorated from last season, and Merrill Kelly, last year's playoff hero, hasn't been particularly effective since coming off a long stint on the IL. Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 40 hits and 27 runs in 22 innings over his past five starts, so his spot in a playoff rotation suddenly looks up in the air.
Verdict: Not Real. The offense is legitimately great and can certainly pile up runs. I'm just not sure it can pile up enough runs to counter the runs the Diamondbacks might allow. After a great run through July and most of August, they've lost series to the Mets, Dodgers, Astros and Brewers -- you know, good teams. As it did last October, the bullpen looks like it will have to carry a heavy load. Rookie Justin Martinez has taken over as closer and throws 100 mph with a wipeout splitter, but he has allowed a run in seven of his past 12 appearances. This is a fun, explosive team -- better than last year's team. But I still like to bet on pitching in the postseason.
Kansas City Royals
Real or Not: Bobby Witt Jr. and maybe the best playoff rotation are enough for an October run.
Witt continues to go toe-to-toe with Judge for MVP honors, and while he has carried the Kansas City offense, it's the underrated rotation that has also fueled the team's rise from 106 losses last season to a likely playoff team this season. Only the Seattle Mariners have a better rotation ERA and more innings pitched from their starters. The Royals' top four starters -- Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha -- each have ERAs under 3.50. Lugo had a couple of rough outings in August but has righted things and allowed two runs in 21 innings over his past three starts -- facing potential playoff opponents in the Yankees, Guardians and Astros. Ragans has 211 strikeouts, which is already the third-highest total in Royals history (Dennis Leonard had 244 in 1977 and Zack Greinke 242 in 2009).
Verdict: Real. The odds are long, especially if the Royals have to come through the wild-card series, and I have doubts about the bullpen -- and we know how important the bullpen is in the postseason. We also know mediocre bullpens can get hot at the right time -- just look at last October with the Rangers and Diamondbacks. But the Royals do have a path to bullpen success: Lucas Erceg has been a huge deadline pickup, Kris Bubic has been throwing the ball well (and has a 31-to-1 strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio), Alec Marsh can move from the rotation, and Michael Lorenzen, once he returns from a hamstring injury, can pitch out of the pen as well. And the offense? It's good enough, ranking fourth in the AL in runs, with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors. The Royals might just shock everyone.
New York Mets
Real or Not: With the best record in the majors since June 12, they might be the best team in baseball.
The Mets are 54-31 with a plus-100 run differential since that date -- a couple of wins better than Arizona and Houston. Check their rankings since then:
Rotation: 3.48 ERA (fourth in majors)
Bullpen: 4.11 ERA (15th)
Runs scored: 428 (second)
Home runs: 120 (third)
The surprise here is the rotation, but Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson have all been excellent over the past three months. Luis Severino would be the fourth starter and he's fine. Kodai Senga was supposed to be the staff ace but has made just one start all season, although he could return as a reliever for the postseason. The offense has power up and down the lineup, with MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso leading the way with 30-plus home runs. The bullpen is clearly the biggest question mark.
Verdict: Not Real. You have to be careful dividing a baseball season into bits and pieces, but other than a dismal May when they went 9-19, the Mets have been pretty steady. Mark Vientos taking over at third has been a big upgrade, and Lindor has been dominant after a slow start. Still ... I have doubts about the Mets as a World Series team. Other than Manaea, it's not a big strikeout rotation, and that's a concern against the better offenses in the postseason. The bullpen hasn't exactly been locking things down -- just look at the two late-game losses this past weekend to the Phillies. And now Lindor's back might be turning into a problem.
Atlanta Braves
Real or Not: They have the pitching to pull off an October surprise -- just like in 2021.
Proof that the baseball playoffs make no sense: The Braves won 104 games in 2023 with one of the best offenses of all time and lost in the NLDS. They won 101 games in 2022 and lost in the NLDS. They won 88 games in 2021 and didn't have Ronald Acuna Jr. in the postseason but won the World Series. Just get in and anything can happen.
Verdict: Real. With Chris Sale, Max Fried and an outstanding bullpen (Sunday night's ninth inning notwithstanding), they have a chance -- after all, they're tied with the Mariners for fewest runs allowed. They have a superstar hitter in Marcell Ozuna. Even with their offensive struggles, they're tied for sixth in the majors in home runs and home runs play in October. Yes, they've also been a .500 team since the middle of May, but you can see a path where Matt Olson gets hot at the right time (as he was in August) and Ozzie Albies returns and Michael Harris II finds his stroke and they score enough runs.
Minnesota Twins
Real or Not: A healthy Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa can help them run the table.
Well, all three are finally healthy at the same time. Buxton returned on Friday and Correa returned the following day, so the three were in the starting lineup together for just the 20th time all season on Saturday. Minnesota lost 11-1. Indeed, the Twins are under .500 since the All-Star break. Yes, blame the injuries, but the pitching just hasn't been playoff-caliber either, let alone World Series-caliber. This shows up in their record against good teams: 0-6 against the Yankees, 2-8 against the Guardians, 0-3 against the Braves and Orioles, and series losses to the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets and Padres. The Twins are 37-52 against teams currently above .500. They were great against the White Sox (12-1), but they don't play them the final two weeks and they're gasping to hold on to that third AL wild card over Detroit and Seattle.
Verdict: Not Real. Lewis has finally been healthy for the most extended period of his career -- and has stopped hitting as well (.229, .675 OPS since the beginning of August). We don't have a read yet on Buxton and Correa. Bottom line: The Twins just don't beat the good teams, so it's difficult to envision them winning four series in a row against good teams. (The Tigers or Mariners, if they can catch the Twins, might actually be the better bet to pull off some playoff upsets, thanks to their pitching.)