In an unexpected twist to the MLB season, there are no superteams at the top of the standings as the postseason approaches.
There is no team on pace to win 100 games, which would make this the first season since 2014 without a club reaching the mark. Although the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged in the race for the No. 1 overall seed, there is less clarity behind them, with just four games separating the teams with the third- and ninth-best records in baseball.
With that in mind, we went to a panel of MLB execs, scouts and players to pick the team to beat between the two National League leaders, as well as the most likely threats to take them down. Which NL powerhouse is best built for October? Or which of the remaining contenders could pull out an upset? Here is what they said. (Note: Some voters asked for anonymity to speak freely about other teams.)
Which of the clubs with the two best records is the team to beat in October?
Philadelphia Phillies -- 9
Los Angeles Dodgers -- 4
Support for Philadelphia increased throughout our response window as pitching injuries continued to mount in the Dodgers' rotation. Last week, Gavin Stone went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, joining Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who returned Tuesday night) as L.A. starters with uncertainty surrounding their postseason status.
But outside of any questions about the Dodgers, there is also a growing list of observers who think this is Philadelphia's year.
"I would say the Phillies because of their starting pitching," Chicago Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon said recently. "They beefed up their pen, and they have the power to win in the playoffs. They're the team to beat in my opinion."
While the Dodgers rely on star power, our panel liked the Phillies' complete roster, with far fewer weaknesses than in the past.
"Even though there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the playoffs these days, I feel like the Phillies are going to break through," one voter from the American League said. "Their starting pitchers have thrown the third-most innings in baseball, and their relievers have the second-best strikeout percentage in MLB. Power plus a bullpen that misses bats, that doesn't have to get into games until the sixth inning at the earliest, is a good formula."
Although Philadelphia's roster might seem to have the right October mix, others among our voters believe that Los Angeles' star trio of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman will be too much for anyone to overcome in the postseason.
"I just can't wrap my head around getting those three out enough in a series to beat them," one AL scout said. "In a game? Sure. But a best-of-five or better, I still like Los Angeles -- as long as they can find someone to pitch."
Who is the biggest threat to the Phillies and Dodgers?
San Diego Padres -- 8
Milwaukee Brewers -- 5
Baltimore Orioles -- 5
New York Yankees -- 3
Cleveland Guardians -- 3
Houston Astros -- 1
Beyond the two clubs at the top of the standings, another NL contender was mentioned most frequently as the team nobody should want to face this postseason: the Padres.
"We saw the Padres after the trade deadline, after they acquired [Jason] Adam and Tanner Scott, and they can make it a five-inning game really, really fast," Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. "That bullpen is elite. And they are really explosive offensively. And you talk about trade acquisitions, they just got back one of the best players in the game in [Fernando] Tatis. That changes the dynamic of their lineup."
Since those deadline acquisitions, San Diego's bullpen ranks first in strikeout percentage and fourth in walk percentage. Given the heightened importance of relievers in October, many of our panel members believe it could be a winning playoff formula -- especially in a potential matchup against the Padres' biggest rivals.
"I do think the Dodgers are pretty darn good," one NL executive said. "But I don't know that I'd like to play the Padres in a postseason series, particularly if Tatis is fully healthy by then. That's a dangerous team that can score runs and has a solid rotation, but more importantly can shorten games and can get a bunch of strikeouts in late innings -- which is huge come postseason."
Another team mentioned by many on our panel is the Brewers, who have managed to fly under the radar for much of this season despite cruising toward a division crown. They even have an outside chance of catching Philadelphia or Los Angeles for a first-round bye.
"Milwaukee is a potential sleeper for me," one NL executive said. "I think they're a very well-rounded club from what I've seen and don't get nearly enough media attention. I think they'll be a tough out."
One pitcher from another contender agreed with that assessment of the Brewers.
"A sleeper team would be Milwaukee," said Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, who was asked to exclude his own team. "I would say don't sleep on them. They can hit. They play really well at home. They have a good, young, fast team. And [William] Contreras is pivotal in the middle of that lineup."
There was a theme among our voters that many of the most dangerous teams reside in the National League, but there was still plenty of support for the teams battling it out for the AL East crown.
Although the Orioles are trailing the Yankees in the standings, our panel sees Baltimore as the tougher matchup in October.
"I still like the Orioles' chances if they can get Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and others back for the stretch run," an AL rival executive said.
That could be a big "if" for a team that has gone 23-25 since the All-Star break and seems to have lost some of the offensive mojo that carried it to the AL East title a season ago.
"They've disappeared here and there at the plate this season," one NL scout said. "Remember that streak of not getting swept? I feel like that ended because their offense has been inconsistent."
As for the Yankees, our panel knows Aaron Judge and Juan Soto can carry them deep into October -- but there were enough questions about the rest of the lineup and their pitching staff to give some of our voters pause.
"New York is good," one AL rival scout said. "I'm not sure they have enough pitching, especially in the bullpen."
On the other hand, the bullpen of the AL Central-leading Guardians came up as one of the primary reasons to fear them in a postseason series.
"Cleveland's a tough team. Their offense is a problem. Their bullpen is really, really good, too." New York Mets reliever Ryne Stanek said. "They play the game the way you have to play it to win in the playoffs. I think a lot of it is you gotta look at the teams that do the things that win in October, and you play good defense, you don't beat yourself, you put the ball in play, you can hit some homers."
No team knows more about winning in October in recent seasons than the Astros. Although Houston is no longer a clear favorite at the top of the league and likely will not get a first-round bye, nobody is counting out another deep postseason run.
"I mean, it's hard to bet against the Astros," Stanek said. "Just the experience and pedigree that's been there for the last decade, basically."
Voters chose not to cast their ballots for either of the final NL wild-card contenders, perhaps because the race between the Mets and the Atlanta Braves is too close to call. Likewise, Kansas City and Minnesota didn't receive any support from our panel for a championship run. One voter noted that both of those teams went 12-1 against the Chicago White Sox this season and hovered around .500 against the rest of their schedules.
Of course, one doesn't have to look far for evidence that a team can make a deep run without being a popular pick ahead of the postseason -- the Arizona Diamondbacks are attempting to follow up their 2023 World Series run with another likely NL wild card.
"Look at last year with Arizona," Mets catcher Luis Torrens said. "Before that with Washington. Then Texas. I was with Seattle last year. If we swept Texas [to end the regular season], they would've been eliminated and we would've gone to the playoffs. And we won three and lost one and look at what they did. They won everything."
ESPN.com MLB reporter Jorge Castillo contributed to this story