Welcome to September, baseball fans. We're now entering the stretch drive, when the MLB playoff races are supposed to be at their most intense as teams shift into high gear. However, it's possible we already know the 12 teams that will be competing in October.
Four of the division leaders have fairly comfortable leads -- up at least five games on their closest competitors. The once-crowded National League wild-card race -- which, back on June 21, had nine teams separated by just two games for the final two spots -- is down to three teams for one spot. However, there are still things to be settled, such as the battle for the American League East, which looked as if it might start to see some separation but is as tight as ever.
So, let's rank the playoff races that will rule the final month, including the one for the top seeds in each league.
1. American League East
Standings: New York Yankees 0.5 games up on Baltimore Orioles
These two have been going at it all season. The Yankees' biggest lead was 4.5 games on June 6; the Orioles led by 3 games on a couple of occasions, most recently on July 9. The two teams haven't been separated by more than 2 games since then, with the division lead exchanging hands five times in August. The Orioles still feel like the upstarts to me, even though they're the defending division champs after winning 101 games last season -- 19 more than the Yankees. It's easy to forget how mediocre the Yankees were in 2023; still, the Orioles give off the vibe of a young, up-and-coming team, trying to knock off the mighty Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. In reality, though, they haven't been quite as good as last season.
Both teams have seen their rotations struggle after hot starts. Through June 21, the Yankees were second in the majors with a 3.13 rotation ERA; the Orioles were third at 3.21. Since then, the Yankees rank 26th with a 5.19 ERA and the Orioles 23nd at 4.87. The Orioles are still without Grayson Rodriguez, and trade acquisition Zach Eflin just returned Sunday after missing two weeks with shoulder inflammation (Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells were already out for the season). Meanwhile, staff ace Corbin Burnes is suddenly struggling with three straight losses and 20 runs allowed over his past three starts (and 28 runs allowed in 25⅔ innings in five August starts).
The Orioles are also missing position players Jordan Westburg (hand fracture), Ryan Mountcastle (sprained wrist), Heston Kjerstad (concussion) and Jorge Mateo (out for the season after elbow surgery). Mountcastle should be back soon, and the hope is Rodriguez and Westburg return before the end of the season.
Then you have the bullpen issues. Seranthony Dominguez, who was the No. 5 reliever on the Phillies when the Orioles acquired him at this year's trade deadline, has supplanted Craig Kimbrel as the closer. He has a 3.00 ERA since joining Baltimore -- but has also allowed five home runs in 15 innings, giving him 11 in 51 innings on the season. That doesn't sound like a guy to trust in October, but I also don't see manager Brandon Hyde going back to Kimbrel at this point (he lost Saturday's game when he allowed two runs in the eighth). Meanwhile, Yankees manager Aaron Boone has stuck with Clay Holmes as his closer, even though Holmes has 10 blown saves and a 4.24 ERA since May 20.
This race may come down to which closer gets the job done in September. Or maybe it's as simple as if Judge heats up again after going homerless this past week. The teams do have one series left against one another the final week of the season, with the Orioles needing just one win to clinch the season series and own the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record as New York. I don't like the way either is playing right now, but the Yankees have the slim lead, and Baltimore's bullpen issues are worrisome. I think the Yankees hold on.
2. American League Central
Standings: Cleveland Guardians 3.5 games up on Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins
In a three-team race between the Guardians, the shocking Royals and the Twins, Cleveland has held the division lead since April 14 -- with the Royals tying for first place for just one day early last week after they took the first three games of a four-game series from the Guardians. Cleveland then pulled back on top while the Royals suffered a critical injury when Vinnie Pasquantino broke his thumb on a play at first base. He'll miss the rest of the regular season, a big blow to the Kansas City lineup. The Royals just claimed outfielders Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers and acquired Yuli Gurriel, who has been in the minors all season, to add more depth.
Even if they don't win the division, the Royals can still become one of the most improbable playoff teams of all time. Remember, they lost 106 games last season -- more than the Chicago White Sox. If your favorite team is out of the playoff picture, you might consider jumping on the Kansas City bandwagon. Just take a look at the teams with the biggest single-season gain in wins in the division era (since 1969):
1998-99 Diamondbacks*: +35
1988-89 Orioles: +33
2023-24 Royals: +33 (projected)
2021-22 Orioles: +31
2008-08 Rays*: +31
1992-93 Giants: +31
(* made playoffs)
All season, it seemed as if it was only a matter of time before the Royals started to fade, but the rotation (and Bobby Witt Jr.) kept them winning. They finally lost four in a row this past week, including the first three of a four-game series to Houston. The bullpen picked up three of those losses. Kansas City also lost Michael Lorenzen, who had a 1.85 ERA in five starts since joining the team, with a hamstring strain. It's a huge week for the Royals in the division race as they host Cleveland and Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Twins have hung around despite not being in first place other than after an Opening Day win. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton remain on the injured list -- and have appeared alongside Royce Lewis in the starting lineup just 19 times. They're also limping home: 4-9 in their past 13 games, with two of those wins coming from scoreless starts from Pablo Lopez.
Each team has one series remaining with the other -- and for what it's worth, Kansas City and Minnesota are done with the White Sox while Cleveland has one series remaining against them. The edge remains with the Guardians as they continue to ride star closer Emmanuel Clase & Co.
3. National League wild card
Standings: Atlanta Braves 1 game up on New York Mets, 3 on Chicago Cubs
This isn't as messy as when nine teams were involved, as the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks pulled ahead of the field to create a little separation -- at least until the past few days. Both teams entered Sunday just two games up on the Braves and four on the Mets, so they're not necessarily the playoff locks they appeared a week ago.
The Braves, of course, have two races going, but they probably needed to sweep the Phillies, or at least take three of four, in their series this past weekend to have a chance at the division title. That didn't happen -- in fact, they lost three of four. So now it's more about holding off the Mets and surging Cubs for the final wild-card spot. The offense was much better in August, as Marcell Ozuna remained hot and Matt Olson finally did some damage with eight home runs and 27 RBIs.
But don't sleep on the Cubs, either, as they went 18-8 in August with a plus-46 run differential. They hit .260/.333/.459 on the month, with only the Diamondbacks scoring more runs. Leading the way were two players who hadn't hit all season: Pete Crow-Armstrong hit .314/.375/.558 with four home runs and 17 RBIs and Miguel Amaya hit .318/.348/.576 with 19 RBIs. Dansby Swanson had also scuffled most of the season but drove in 21 runs in August. On the pitching side, the bullpen has been much better with Jorge Lopez (0.76 ERA in 21 appearances with the Cubs after the Mets had released him), sweeper king Porter Hodge (1.80 ERA, 45 strikeouts in 35 IP), Tyson Miller (acquired from the Mariners in May) and Nate Pearson (acquired from the Blue Jays at the deadline, 1.93 ERA in August) all pitching well. Good bullpens often materialize out of nowhere; maybe the Cubs found one just in time to make a playoff push.
Still, odds are against them making up the ground and passing two teams with just 25 games remaining. The Braves won the season series against the Cubs, so really Chicago is five games back of Atlanta. The Cubs also have no head-to-head games against the Braves or Mets (and the Mets also won the season series), making it even more difficult. In the end, the Cubs will likely end up wondering why they didn't build a better bullpen from the get-go or why they gave 19 starts to Kyle Hendricks. The Braves and Mets, meanwhile, are tied on the season series with three games in Atlanta the final week. That series could decide the final wild-card team. Edge: Atlanta has the pitching, and I'll bet on the pitching.
4. Top seeds/best overall record
Standings: Los Angeles Dodgers 1 game up on Philadelphia Phillies, 2 on Milwaukee Brewers in NL; Yankees 0.5 games up on Orioles, 1 up on Guardians in AL
Is this a big deal? In one sense, not really. Last year's World Series was an all-wild-card affair between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers beat the Astros in Games 6 and 7 in Houston to win the ALCS, while the Diamondbacks beat the Phillies in Games 6 and 7 in Philly to win the NLCS. The Phillies reached the World Series in 2022 as a wild-card team -- and beat the Braves each of the past two seasons in the division series, even though Atlanta was 14 games better both years in the regular season.
Still, teams would prefer to avoid the best-of-three first round and enjoy home-field advantage if possible. The NL race is interesting, because a win or two could end being the difference between home-field advantage throughout the postseason or ending up as the No. 3 seed -- and perhaps facing a Braves team that could roll out Chris Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez in three games, which doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun. In the AL, the top seed looks likely to be decided by the outcome of the AL East race, though the Guardians aren't too far behind the Yankees and Orioles record-wise -- so they could potentially make that race a bit more interesting.
In terms of best overall records, the Dodgers are competing with the aforementioned two NL teams and the Yankees, whom they're currently three games up on.
5. National League West
Standings: Dodgers 5 games up on Diamondbacks and Padres
The Dodgers have controlled this division since the start. They were tied for five days the first week of the season but have otherwise held the lead to themselves, including as many as nine games in the middle of June. That lead shrunk to two games on Aug. 17 and was three over Arizona as recently as last week.
But then the Dodgers' offense took over. They beat the Orioles and Burnes 6-4 as Shohei Ohtani homered and stole two bases. They beat the Orioles 6-3 as they pounded out 14 hits. They withstood a four-run rally in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Diamondbacks 10-9 as Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith all homered. Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freeman each homered to start off Saturday's game and then the Dodgers scored twice in the ninth to pull out an 8-6 win. Suddenly, the lead was back to a comfortable six games (although, it shifted back to five games after the Diamondbacks beat up on Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski for 10 runs on Sunday).
With Max Muncy finally back, Gavin Lux tearing it up in the second half (OPS over 1.000) and Tommy Edman healthy after coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals, the Dodgers' lineup is now the strongest it's been all season. But pitching remains a concern. Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller haven't been sharp and Clayton Kershaw just landed on the IL with a bone spur in his big toe, although the Dodgers are hopeful he'll be back before the end of the season. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow remains out with elbow tendinitis with an uncertain return and Yoshinobu Yamamoto just made his first rehab start, pitching two innings for Oklahoma City. If the Dodgers can get two of Kershaw/Glasnow/Yamamoto back to join Gavin Stone and Jack Flaherty in a potential playoff rotation, they'll feel much better about their chances in October.
6. American League wild card
Standings: Twins/Royals 4.5 games up on Boston Red Sox, 5 on Detroit Tigers, 5.5 on Seattle Mariners
Does anyone want this? The Royals went 15-13 in August, the Twins went 14-14, the Red Sox 13-15 and the Mariners 12-14, which somehow leaves the Tigers still on the fringes of the hunt (they went 17-11 in August). The only series remaining between these teams is a three-game series at Fenway between the Twins and Red Sox toward the end of the month. In other words, Red Sox fans: You still have a chance.
7. American League West
Standings: Houston Astros 6 games up on Mariners
Since June 21, when the Mariners held a seven-game lead over the Astros, the Mariners have gone 25-35 -- even though they've allowed the second-fewest runs in the majors. They were 16-7 in one-run games at that point, 7-15 since, including back-to-back one-run losses to the Angels to close out the weekend. Given the Astros are the team that has allowed the fewest runs since June 21, this race is all but over.
8. National League East
Standings: Phillies 7 games up on Braves
With no more head-to-head games remaining, the Phillies' odds of winning the division are over 90%. The Braves did win the season series, so they win the division if there's a tie.
9. National League Central
Standings: Brewers 9 games up on Cubs
The underrated, overlooked Brewers have led the division since May 9, slowly stretching out their lead. They have a shot at finishing with the best record -- which has happened only once in franchise history, in 1982. That was also the franchise's only World Series appearance. You know, when we do get to the postseason and everyone makes their picks, nobody is going to pick the Brewers. But why not? They've been steady all season, they just had their best month at 19-9, they score runs, they play excellent defense and the bullpen protects leads. There is no dominant team this season and you can peck holes in the Dodgers, Phillies or Yankees as easily as the Brewers. This might be the year. The Brewers to win the World Series? Maybe I'll make that my pick.