The 2024 edition of the National League East race is a big turnaround from last season, when the Atlanta Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. This year, Philadelphia took control of the division early on and has held solo possession of first place every day since May 3.
As the two teams meet this weekend, let's dig into how the Phillies have turned the tables on the Braves.
How the Braves ruled in 2023
2023 offense: Braves +151 runs (Braves scored 947 runs; Phillies scored 796)
2023 pitching/defense: Phillies +1 run (Phillies allowed 715 runs; Braves allowed 716)
The Braves' big advantage came on the offensive side of the ball last season. No surprise there, as the Braves' offense was one of the best of all time. Atlanta hit an MLB-record-tying 307 home runs and became the first team to slug .500. The Phillies finished fourth in the NL with 796 runs, which was the most they had scored since 2009 -- but was still 151 fewer than the Braves.
The teams were essentially equal at run prevention, with Atlanta allowing one more run. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola gave the Phillies one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, while the Braves got expected strong performances from Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton along with a breakout by Bryce Elder.
What changed over the offseason
Interestingly, the Braves had the more active offseason despite their better record in 2023. They traded for Jarred Kelenic to replace free-agent left fielder Eddie Rosario, then added rotation depth by acquiring Chris Sale from the Red Sox and signing Reynaldo Lopez as a free agent (with the idea of moving him from the bullpen to a starting role).
The Phillies' biggest move wasn't a roster upgrade, as they re-signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. They did make a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but when the Dodgers ended up winning that bidding war, the Phillies instead spent that money on ... Whit Merrifield.
When you do the nitty-gritty math, 10 runs is worth about one win, so the Braves' 150-run differential edge explains how they were 14 wins better in 2023. How were the Phillies going to make up that ground with primarily the same roster? They would have to play better and hope the Braves would regress.
Going into the season, most of the predictions still favored the Braves and their seemingly all-powerful lineup. Twenty-four of 26 voters in our predictions picked the Braves to win the division. My colleague Bradford Doolittle's forecast pegged the Braves as the best team in baseball with 105 wins; the Phillies were No. 5 at 88 wins. FanGraphs saw a similar gap, predicting the Braves with 98 wins and the Phillies with 85.
How the Phillies have turned the tables in 2024
2024 offense: Phillies +66 runs (Phillies have scored 653 runs; Atlanta has scored 587)
2024 pitching/defense: Braves +25 runs (Atlanta has allowed 522 runs; Phillies have allowed 547)
The Phillies have a 41-run advantage in run differential this season and a five-game lead in the NL East.
The Braves have actually outperformed the Phillies when it comes to pitching and defense this year, though. Sale and Lopez have proved to be two of the best moves any team made this offseason and have made up for the loss of Strider. Sale is the clear NL Cy Young front-runner, as he's 15-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 197 strikeouts, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Lopez is 7-4 with a 2.02 ERA in 21 starts.
So, since the Braves are about two wins better than the Phillies on the pitching side of things, we need to find about 20 wins that the Phillies have made up on offense. And, yes, most of that is the Braves completely falling apart at the plate. They are ninth in the NL in runs scored, on pace to score 701 runs -- 246 fewer than last season.
The Phillies are on pace to score 787 runs, nearly identical to last season's 796. While Trea Turner and Alec Bohm have been better in 2024 (about a combined 13 runs better), others like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh haven't been as good (about a combined 24 runs worse).
So ... the Atlanta offense. Certainly, the season-ending injury to reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has been a huge factor here. He wasn't off to a good start before he tore his ACL either, so Braves right fielders have hit .235/.308/.402 with 20 home runs, compared with .332/.408/.587 with 42 home runs a season ago. Acuna created about 62 runs more than an average hitter in 2023. This season, Braves right fielders have been about a run better than average. Using our 10 runs equals one win metric, that's about six wins worse.
Matt Olson served as another superstar in Atlanta's lineup last season when he finished fourth in the NL MVP voting. He played every game again this season but has failed to come close to repeating his 54-homer performance. He's about 48 runs worse -- or another five wins.
The trend continues down the lineup, and the gap between the two teams narrows with every down year by an Atlanta hitter.
Ozzie Albies: 18 runs worse (That's another two wins)
Sean Murphy: 18 runs worse (Two more)
Austin Riley: 14 runs worse (Another win-plus gone from Atlanta's advantage)
Orlando Arcia: 14 runs worse (And another)
Michael Harris II: 13 runs worse (And another)
Kelenic: 6 runs worse than Rosario (Unlike Sale and Lopez, this move hasn't really paid off)
There have been two big improvements in Atlanta's lineup: Marcell Ozuna (12 runs better) and Travis d'Arnaud (10 runs better). But that pair has not been enough to make up for the steps in the wrong direction.
Add it all up and we get 17, when including right field and Olson. Yes, injuries to Albies, Harris and Riley (who is likely out for the rest of the season) have played a part. But none of those three had matched last year's performance when on the field either. Throw in poor performances by some bench players and that gets us to about 20 fewer wins of offense.
This isn't to discount what Philly has done, of course. The Phillies have also been a little better than last season: Entering Friday's game, they are on pace for 96 wins, a six-win improvement from last year's 90-72 finish. Most of that has come from the pitching side of things (Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez have all been better than a season ago), but Atlanta's pitching has also been better than it was.
Remarkably, however, this race isn't over. Entering Saturday's game, the Phillies are just 17-22 in the second half and 34-37 since June 9. As talented and star-laden as the Phillies are, they should have put the Braves away by now, but they haven't yet. The Braves will need to at least split this series to stay five games behind, and the teams don't meet again. The odds heavily favor the Phillies to win the division (about 90%) and it's now clear how Philadelphia has built that advantage -- but the door is open just enough to potentially make September intriguing in the NL East.