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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they pick out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
With many of the AFC's preseason favorites struggling in the early going, who is the best team in the conference? Do the Chiefs and/or Bills still hold that title, or is another franchise on the rise? Which quarterback situations have been the most surprising through two weeks, for better or worse? And which rookies have made the biggest impact so far?
It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their reporting notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 3.
Jump to a topic:
Best AFC team | QB surprise | Top rookies
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
What is the best team in the AFC right now?
Graziano: I still think it'll be the Chiefs by the end of the season, but based on what we've seen so far, it has to be the Dolphins right now. They won one game in a shootout with the Chargers, with receiver Tyreek Hill going off for 215 yards and a pair of TDs. They won another in a tight, divisional slugfest with the Patriots, leaning on running back Raheem Mostert (121 yards and two scores). The defense looked a lot better in Week 2, too. Miami has all the pieces, and if new coordinator Vic Fangio really has fixed things on the defensive side, the Dolphins are not going away any time soon.
Fowler: Miami's roster is loaded, and the Dolphins have a serious case, Dan. But I'm still riding with the Bills -- it's time to break through. The ugly Week 1 loss to the Jets was an outlier. Quarterback Josh Allen threw that game away by himself. But he played a more disciplined game in Week 2 against the Raiders, and that's the blueprint. This offense should be even better than a year ago with impressive depth at tight end and running back. Dalton Kincaid and James Cook are young players with star potential, and the already-stout defense is getting edge rusher Von Miller back soon.
Graziano: Yes, I agree it would be a mistake to write off Buffalo after everything it has accomplished over the past few years. I'm just a little concerned about Allen's YOLO tendencies and the potential fissures there in the relationship between him and receiver Stefon Diggs.
What about the AFC North? The Bengals were my preseason pick for the Super Bowl, but the 0-2 start and the calf injury that can't seem to stop bugging Joe Burrow have me very concerned. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 2-0. Quarterback Lamar Jackson looked great Sunday against that Cincinnati team. The Ravens beat the two-time defending division champs without Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum and J.K. Dobbins. If the Ravens could ever get -- and stay -- healthy, do you think they belong in this conversation?
Fowler: Firmly in the conversation. Save Dobbins (torn Achilles), those veterans should all be back in the lineup eventually. The defense under coordinator Mike Macdonald can pose problems for opponents with constant pressure. The offense under coordinator Todd Monken has produced 52 points through two games, yet hasn't even reached its potential. Rookie wideout Zay Flowers is a revelation. And while Baltimore will miss Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Co. are capable in the backfield. If I'm ranking AFC teams right now, Baltimore is top three or four right now.
What is the most surprising quarterback situation through two weeks, for better or worse?
Fowler: So many, but I'll go with Burrow in Cincinnati. Raise your hand if you had him ranking 22nd in Total QBR entering Week 3 (47.2). Sure, Cincinnati started slowly last year and was fine, but Burrow doesn't look right after missing most of training camp and the preseason because of the calf issue, which he aggravated Sunday.
In Chicago, Justin Fields' struggles are mildly surprising, but not so much when you consider his indecision in the pocket is an extension of last season.
Graziano: Fair points on Burrow, but at this point it does seem we can assume he isn't fully healthy, which could mean trouble for the Bengals all year.
I'm looking at a couple of the rookies, and frankly C.J. Stroud has been more impressive right out of the gate than I expected. Houston doesn't seem to be afraid to let him throw it behind a banged-up offensive line, which says a lot about its confidence in him. He has 626 passing yards, two TD throws and zero interceptions already. Conversely, I did not expect Bryce Young to look as overwhelmed as he has so far. Everything we heard on him from Carolina all offseason was about how poised and ready he seemed.
Fowler: Stroud has impressed many in the league with his ball placement and composure, especially with four offensive line starters out. And the Colts are elated by Anthony Richardson's start, though he left the Week 2 game early and entered the concussion protocol.
Part of the issue with Young, according to a few scouts, is the lack of juice and speed at the playmaker spots. The Panthers aren't scaring defenses there. That said, Young hasn't looked comfortable overall. He will settle in and perhaps needs some early-career adversity.
OK, last surprise that we have to mention: Baker Mayfield. He has been incredibly efficient with Tampa Bay, and while not a totally shocking development, he is clearly capitalizing on what could be his last chance as a starter.
Graziano: Absolutely. Baker and the Bucs are 2-0! They have a tough schedule stretch coming up, starting with the Eagles on "Monday Night Football," so we might find out more in the coming weeks. But Mayfield is no dummy. He can figure out what number Mike Evans wears and find him on the field, and that's working out well so far. In a similar vein, it has been very impressive seeing how good a healthy Matthew Stafford looks so far in his first two games of the season with the Rams.
Who is the most impressive rookie through their first two games?
Graziano: Rams receiver Puka Nacua is helping the team forget it's playing without injured Cooper Kupp (hamstring). Nacua is second in the league in receiving yards (266) behind Justin Jefferson and third in the league in scrimmage yards (270) behind Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey. He has been targeted 35 times in two games, showing that Stafford, coach Sean McVay and the Rams have complete trust in him. A poor 40-yard dash time at the BYU pro day helped drop Nacua to the fifth round of the draft, but he's clearly a very good, very pro-ready player -- and he's likely carving out a nice role for himself in the Rams' offense even after Kupp returns from his hamstring injury.
Fowler: Yeah, Nacua is a slam dunk. But I'll pick out Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson, who entered the league with much fanfare and has delivered. There's little doubt about his star power through two games. Something magical can happen on each carry. Making linebackers miss is a way of life for him. The Falcons might have trouble getting Drake London and Kyle Pitts the ball consistently, but Robinson has controlled the pace with 39 touches through two games, and his 255 scrimmage yards are tied for fourth in the NFL.
Flowers, the Ravens' first-round pick, is also making a compelling case that he's the top receiver of the 2023 draft class, with 13 catches for 140 yards.
Graziano: Let's also shout out a couple of rookies on the defensive side of the ball. Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has an interception and a sack already in just two career games, and Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter is making the teams that decided he was too risky a draft pick look a little bit silly so far.
What's your top upset pick for Week 3?
Graziano: Titans (+3) over Browns. I figure this one will be low scoring, because the Titans are no one's definition of a high-powered offense and the Browns' defense has looked very good so far. But Cleveland's Deshaun Watson has looked horrible (30th in QBR out of 32 qualified quarterbacks at 29.3), and the loss of running back Nick Chubb could be devastating for this Browns offense. Right now, there's absolutely no indication that their quarterback on a $46 million per year contract is ready to pick up the slack. The Titans are well coached, tough and the kind of team that could steal a game like this on the road.
Fowler: Saints (+2) over Packers. Dennis Allen's defense is playing at a high level, with a franchise-record streak of 10 games allowing 20 or fewer points. Signal-caller Derek Carr seems poised for a breakout performance, and New Orleans' offensive playmakers look formidable. Winning in Lambeau is a major challenge, but the Packers are banged up, with offensive stars Elgton Jenkins, David Bakhtiari and Aaron Jones all missing time. Atlanta (+3) over Detroit is tempting, too.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Fowler: Houston wide receiver Tank Dell should produce another strong game for Stroud. The Texans are unafraid to air it out while the running game struggles, and Dell is the most explosive receiver on the Texans' depth chart. He would have had two touchdowns last week vs. Indy if one wasn't called back by a penalty. Dell and Stroud seem to have chemistry as draft classmates.
Also watch for Arizona tight end Zach Ertz to have a good game. His 18 targets show that Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs trusts him.
Graziano: Fire up Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco this week against the Bears. Sure, he has only 20 carries through the first two games, but from talking to people in Kansas City, the Chiefs were expecting to have to ease him in because he missed some offseason time recovering from hand and shoulder injuries. They absolutely view him as their lead back, and they believe they can use him in the passing game as well as the run game.
The Chiefs' offense looked lost without tight end Travis Kelce in Week 1 against the Lions and sluggish in the Jacksonville heat in Week 2. But I say they get it going against a Bears defense that has looked terrible -- and Pacheco gets it going against the team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs so far.
What else are you hearing this week?
Graziano's notebook:
• This likely comes as a surprise, but I'm not detecting a high level of concern from inside the Bears' building on Fields. The Bears (and Fields) have looked terrible in their opening two games, but from what I have been told, the coaching staff always believed this would be another building year for Fields and the offense, especially in the early going. Outside expectations for a major leap forward this offseason were a little bit higher than the internal ones, and the Bears retain optimism that they'll see growth from their young QB as this season progresses.
Chicago was able to make midseason adjustments last season to get the most out of him and is willing to do so again. It believes the offensive line will get healthier -- that Teven Jenkins will be back in a couple of weeks, and that Nate Davis (who missed Sunday because of a personal issue) won't miss another week -- and that should will help the run game overall. It is clear, in talking with the Bears, that too many of the 10 sacks that Fields has taken are on him and that he needs to make better and quicker decisions in the pocket. But as they develop the run game, that should help him.
As for that run game, don't be surprised to see rookie Roschon Johnson emerge as the primary back before long. The Bears came out of camp feeling like he might be the most complete RB (in terms of usage in the passing game and the run game) of the group that includes Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman.
• The Jets' internal reviews on Zach Wilson's first start of the season: He played better than the stats show for the first three quarters and then ended up forcing some bad throws in the fourth when the Jets were way behind. Overall, against that fearsome Cowboys defense, the Jets' offense didn't function very well.
I asked someone with the team about running back Breece Hall's lack of usage, and it was pointed out that the Jets ran only nine normal first- or second-down snaps in the first half. Everything else was third down or in the two-minute drill. They ran only 46 offensive plays in the entire game. New York certainly isn't blowing off the result, and it'll continue to work with Wilson to make him better, but overall as an offense, the Jets believe they can be a lot more than what they showed Sunday -- even if they end up rolling with Wilson the rest of the way.
• On that note, my Jets fan "Get Up" colleague Mike Greenberg wants the Jets to trade for Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. It's way too soon for that to happen, because the Vikings surely aren't ready to give up on their season. But here are some things to know about the feasibility of such a move.
First, Cousins' salary this season is $10 million, which means any team that acquires him would have to pay him only $555,555 per week. So if a team trades for him with 10 weeks left in the season, he'll count for only $5,555,555 against that team's cap this year. Not an impediment, surely.
What could be an impediment (again, if it ever gets to the point where this is realistic) is that Cousins has a full no-trade clause in his contract and can veto any deal. He has a young family, and they like living in Minnesota, so he might not want to move. Of course, that could change if the Vikings go to him at midseason and say, "Kirk, we're out of the race and you're not in our plans for next season. Would you like us to trade you to a contender?" Cousins, who's a free agent at the end of this season, might consider it. But it's no sure thing. Again, he chose Minnesota and likes it there.
There's also the issue of whether a team would want to give up something of significant value for a two-month rental. And there's a good reason you don't tend to see starting quarterbacks traded at the in-season deadline: They likely would need a few weeks to learn a new offense, and that's precious time for a team making such a move. All in all, the Jets could be searching for a veteran QB at the October trade deadline, but don't assume they will make a move or that they'll even be able to get one if they decide to try.
• Some Commanders edge rusher is going to make some money next spring. Montez Sweat has three sacks and two forced fumbles in two games. Chase Young, who missed the first game of the season because of an injury, had 1.5 sacks in Sunday's victory over Denver.
They were Washington's first-round picks in 2019 and 2020, respectively, but because the Commanders (who are 2-0) picked up Sweat's fifth-year option and not Young's, both are slated to be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. The rules say a team can use the franchise tag on only one player per year, which means at least one of these guys will get a long-term deal in Washington or hit the free agent market as an edge rusher in his prime. Sweat turned 27 earlier this month, and Young turns 25 next April. It's a good problem to have for the Commanders at the moment.
Fowler's notebook:
• That the Giants have not ruled out running back Saquon Barkley (right ankle) for Thursday night was a bit of a surprise, and from what I'm hearing, he likely won't play. But here's why the Giants are optimistic about his overall outlook: They were able to determine pretty early Sunday he did not suffer a high-ankle sprain, which an MRI confirmed. And he was walking on the injury after the game that night. By Monday, he had less trouble walking. So while three weeks is a safe bet for his recovery, the Giants are cautiously optimistic that Barkley can make it back sooner rather than later.
New York has 11 days between games after Thursday's matchup with the 49ers, returning to the field for "Monday Night Football" on Oct. 2 against Seattle, so perhaps Barkley can make a run at that game. Matt Breida is likely to start against San Francisco, with Gary Brightwell and Eric Gray backing up. The Giants do not plan to sign a free agent running back this week.
• The Browns looked at several available options at running back in light of Nick Chubb's season-ending left knee injury. They brought in Kareem Hunt -- a top available free agent who spent four years with the franchise and is only 28 -- for a visit Tuesday. This is the most logical pairing. But they also inquired about Rams running back Cam Akers, who is available via trade (Note: He was dealt to the Vikings on Thursday), and called on Trey Sermon, who signed with Indianapolis' practice squad. Leonard Fournette is available, too, but I don't get the sense he's in the mix.
The Browns know they can't replace Chubb's premier skill set and plan to adapt with multiple options, led by Jerome Ford, who ran for 106 yards and added 25 more in the receiving game (plus a touchdown) in Monday night's loss. The Browns spent the offseason blending staples of coach Kevin Stefanski's attack -- which includes a healthy dose of play-action from under center -- with new wrinkles for Watson, including empty sets in a spread formation, like he ran in Houston. With Chubb out, the Browns must rely on Watson more than ever. And as multiple league execs pointed out Tuesday, the Browns still ran the ball well after Chubb was out.
• In other running back news, Miami's Salvon Ahmed (groin) is hopeful to return as early as Week 4. It shouldn't be a long absence for the backup.
• The Chiefs essentially gave quarterback Patrick Mahomes a raise of nearly $45 million over the next four years with his restructured deal, which pays $208.1 million in injury guarantees at signing, plus escalators to push that number further. After asking around on the deal, here's what's clear: The Chiefs didn't have to do this, but the quarterback market ballooned to the point they had to acknowledge his considerable skill set by moving money up from future years. Sides had been talking for a while, and Kansas City was comfortable giving new cash flow to Mahomes.
The Chiefs also maintain salary cap flexibility despite the increased pay. A roster bonus of $34.9 million due in May 2024 is easily prorated via restructure, for example. I'm told Mahomes is on board with the structure in part because it helps the Chiefs improve the roster around him. With Mahomes under contract through the 2031 season as part of his original 10-year extension, surely both sides will reconvene later in the deal. His cash flows in 2028 and 2029 are now $27.1 million and $34.9 million, respectively -- well below his market.
Mahomes' lengthy contract does create an interesting dynamic with how the Chiefs spend on other players. Some agents believe Kansas City has tried to use the length of Mahomes' deal as precedent in other negotiations. Those players might prefer shorter deals. That's something to keep in mind if the Chiefs try to re-sign defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner L'Jarius Sneed and others.