CINCINNATI -- Zac Taylor, I feel seen.
I was standing in the Bengals' postgame interview room at Paycor Stadium on Sunday afternoon after a 27-24 loss to Baltimore, listening to their coach talk about how an 0-2 start isn't the end of the world because they did it last year and still made it to the AFC Championship Game and yada yada yada, when all of a sudden I heard him say something that made me think he's a regular reader.
"The beauty of this team is that we know it's a 17-game season," Taylor said. "So there's no overreaction on our end. We've got to be prepared for it outside our locker room, which is natural. But this is exactly where we were last year, and this will be no different. I'm very confident of that."
I mean, I basically had to take that as an invitation, right? The only thing better would have been if Taylor had sat down and written the lead to the Week 2 overreactions column for me. But he's a busy guy, so I felt like I didn't need to put that on his plate. We are going to start this week with those 0-2 Bengals, though, as we judge a few potential takeaways from the weekend's games.
Jump to:
Burrow and the Bengals
Fields and the Bears
Mayfield and the Buccaneers
Wilson and the Broncos
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are going to miss the playoffs for the first time since the QB's rookie year
Not only are the Bengals 0-2, but both losses have come against AFC North teams -- which means the hill they have to climb to win their third straight division title is a steep one. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, Cincinnati is the seventh team since the division realignment in 2002 to start 0-2 with both of those losses being in division games, and none of the previous six made the playoffs. The Bengals were definitely very confident in their locker room after the game that they could do it, though. Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. told me, "We'll be fine. We've got great guys in here, great leaders. We were better today [than in Week 1], and we'll keep getting better."
And sure, these Burrow-led Bengals have earned some benefit of the doubt. But there was one very worrisome potential development coming out of Sunday's game in addition to the 0-2 start. Burrow limped off the field at the end of the team's final offensive possession. Afterward, he explained that he "tweaked" the right calf injury that he suffered early in training camp.
Taylor and Burrow both said Burrow would have gone back into the game if Cincinnati had been able to get the ball back. But it didn't, and after the game Burrow said he'd have to see how the calf feels over the next couple of days before knowing whether he'll be OK to play next Monday night against a Rams team that looks surprisingly good.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Again, benefit of the doubt. Cincinnati was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, and I still believe this team can get it done. An 0-2 start isn't the death sentence it used to be, now that they play 17 regular-season games and seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. And the Bengals know they can do it because they just did it.
Instead, the reason that this isn't an overreaction is that pesky calf muscle, which cost Burrow all of training camp and could be an injury he has to manage all season. If he has to miss games with it, or even if he can play but isn't all the way himself, that could be enough to keep the Bengals from three-peating in a very tough division that so far has had its way with them in 2023.
The Bears will regret trading away the No. 1 pick from this year's draft
Remember in the months before the draft when there were some questions about whether Chicago would trade the No. 1 pick to a team that wanted to move up for a quarterback or use it to find a replacement for Justin Fields? Well, the Bears decided to ride with Fields and traded away the pick to Carolina, which moved up to select Bryce Young. Their offseason was then all about building around Fields and a belief that he would take another step in his development this season.
Through two games, it does not appear as though he has taken that step. Fields was 16-for-29 with 1 touchdown pass, 2 interceptions and 6 sacks Sunday against Tampa Bay. He has taken 10 sacks in two games, which means he's on pace for 85 after tying for the league lead last year at 55. He has also rushed for only 62 yards in two games, putting him on pace for 527 after rushing for 1,143 yards last season. Simply put, Fields has not played well through two games, and Chicago is 0-2.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I'm not saying you need to be sold on Fields at the moment. Frankly, at the moment, that's a tough sell. What I am saying is that it's too soon to give up. He started slow last season and still filled the second half of the year with electrifying plays. You don't make the decision the Bears made on Fields in the spring only to pull the plug on him two weeks into September. They have to give him the year, or at least a representative chunk of it, before deciding whether he's really the guy they're going with long term. They have to decide on his fifth-year option in the first week of May next year anyway, so why not pile up the data?
Plus, if he doesn't play well over the rest of 2023, Chicago will have a high pick again in the 2024 draft, along with Carolina's first-rounder. So there's no need to jump to this conclusion at this point, and even if the Bears made the wrong decision, they'll be in a position to correct it.
Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers are legitimate contenders in the NFC
The team that beat Fields and the Bears on Sunday was the Buccaneers, who are a surprising 2-0 to start the season and are tied for first place in the NFC South with the surprisingly 2-0 Falcons. (The Saints could join that tie with a win Monday night against the Panthers.) And through two games, Mayfield has completed 69% of his passes for an average of 7.2 yards per attempt. He has thrown three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Mayfield had to win a training camp competition against Kyle Trask just to get the starting quarterback gig in Tampa, but so far, he's validating the team's decision to give it to him.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I went back and forth on this verdict. Mayfield has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his top receivers, and that's going to help anybody. It's not as though Mayfield has never had success in the league; he won a playoff game with the Browns, for goodness' sake. But two weeks ago, nobody had the Bucs as a real playoff contender. A pair of wins against struggling NFC North teams shouldn't be enough to change your mind on that.
Tampa Bay's next five games are against the Eagles, Saints, Lions, Falcons and Bills. If the Bucs are 5-2 or better when that stretch is over, I promise we will talk about this again.
The Broncos will move on from Russell Wilson and have a different starting quarterback in 2024
Denver had a 21-3 lead on Washington with two minutes left in the first half Sunday, but that lead dwindled to 21-14 by halftime. Yes, really. By midway through the fourth quarter, the score was 35-24 Commanders and the Broncos were on their way to an 0-2 start -- although they certainly made it interesting at the end of the 35-33 loss. It was not supposed to be this way. Coach Sean Payton was hired to fix Wilson and all that was wrong with the Broncos last season, and so far they've lost two games to teams you need to beat if you're going to contend.
Wilson threw three touchdown passes Sunday, but one was a Hail Mary at the end of the game. He also threw an interception, took six sacks, and generally still looked as tentative and uncomfortable with his footwork and decision-making as he looked last season. It's getting late early in Denver, and the Broncos' schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I might have misspoken earlier. The fact is, Payton was not hired to fix Wilson. He was hired to win Super Bowls as the coach of the Broncos. Fixing Wilson might be the most straight-line path to that goal, but if Payton doesn't think Wilson is the guy to get it done, then I wouldn't be surprised if Denver moves on from him. In fact, if Wilson continues to play poorly, I actually don't think it's out of the question that Jarrett Stidham could get a start or two this season.
Wilson has a guaranteed $17 million salary in 2024, and if he's still on the Denver roster when the 2024 league year opens, his $37 million 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed. It would be a heavy dead-money hit for the Broncos to cut Wilson next spring, but if they designated him as a post-June 1 cut, it would be a manageable $35 million. The Walton family certainly can handle the $17 million in cash on the guarantee, and if things don't turn around quickly for Wilson, there's a chance we could be looking at this situation at the end of this season and saying moving on is the move that makes the most sense.
The Dolphins will win the AFC East
It was a little bit of a different way to win for Miami this week. After a season-opening 36-34 shootout victory over the Chargers, the Dolphins went up to Foxborough and slugged one out with the division-rival Patriots, winning 24-17.
The Tua Tagovailoa-led offense looked extraordinarily sharp and explosive in the first half before sputtering early in the second against a good Patriots defense, but the story Sunday night may have been how well the Dolphins played on defense. After giving up 233 rushing yards to the Chargers in Week 1, they held off New England's run game (25 carries for 88 yards) and made the plays they needed to make. If the Dolphins are capable of playing offense the way they played it in Week 1 and playing defense the way they did in Week 2, they're going to be dangerous.
Miami is the only team in the AFC East that started 2-0.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Dolphins are the favorites at the moment, for sure. Both of their victories have come against better teams than the Raiders squad that Buffalo beat Sunday, and Buffalo's Week 1 outing against the Jets was a rough loss. The Dolphins have their sights set on ending the Bills' three-year division title streak, and they're set up to do it.
But there is a loooong way to go. The Bills should play better. The Jets aren't going to be a fun or easy team to play, even if their offense is limited with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Dolphins have a tough remaining schedule that includes out-of-division road trips to Philadelphia and Baltimore and home games against the Chiefs and Cowboys. And then there are the perpetual looming questions about whether Tagovailoa can stay healthy.
The Dolphins looked special early last season, too, and they didn't have enough to outlast Buffalo. It's still too early to say whether they can do it this season.