The Playbook, Week 3: Cowboys, Chiefs among most likely to win

Welcome to the Week 3 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicked off Thursday night with the Giants at the 49ers.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)

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Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr., Mark Andrews

• Anthony Richardson (head) is questionable for Week 3, but he should be in lineups if active. The rookie sits seventh in QB fantasy points despite playing on only 63% of snaps due to a pair of injuries. As expected, his rushing production has been the name of the game (13-75-3 rushing line), but Indianapolis' pass-first scheme has only helped his cause.

• Zack Moss made his 2023 debut in Week 2 and was the Colts' clear feature back, playing on 55 of a possible 56 snaps. Moss handled all 18 of the team's RB carries and added four targets. The former third-round pick played well, totaling 107 yards and a score on 22 touches. He's a borderline RB2 against a good Baltimore defense.

• If Justice Hill is sidelined this week, Baltimore will turn to Gus Edwards as its primary runner, with Melvin Gordon III and perhaps Kenyan Drake involved as well. Edwards would be in line for the bulk of the carries and goal-line work, but has never been a factor in the passing game. He'll be a flex if Hill is out.

Over/Under: 45.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 79% (5th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns -3.5

Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper

• Nick Chubb is done for the season, which sets up Jerome Ford for a big workload and a potential breakout season. Following Chubb's departure on Monday, Ford handled 15 of the team's 17 carries, deferring only two to Pierre Strong Jr. In total, Ford out-snapped Strong 40-11 and ran 17 routes to Strong's eight. Both players should be on rosters for now, but Ford is the clear top fantasy option. He'll have a very tough matchup against the Titans' elite run defense this week but can be considered a back-end RB2.

• David Njoku saw a target share of exactly 10% in both Weeks 1 and 2, which has limited him to a 6-70-0 receiving line on seven targets. In terms of snaps and routes, Njoku's role hasn't changed, so while he can't be considered a lineup lock right now, better days are likely ahead.

Over/Under: 40.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 69% (8th highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions -3

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

• Gibbs is a lineup lock with David Montgomery sidelined for 1-3 weeks. Gibbs evenly split carries with Craig Reynolds following Montgomery's departure last week, but the rookie also soaked up a team-high nine targets in the game. Gibbs will surely defer some carries to Reynolds and perhaps old friend Zonovan "Bam" Knight, but an uptick is likely, and he's assured a major passing-game role.

• There are approximately 15 borderline TE1s right now, and two will perform in this game. Unfortunately, Kyle Pitts has fallen into this category, having posted receiving lines of 2-44-0 and 2-15-0 on a total of just eight targets through two games. Pitts' 17% target share isn't good enough in Atlanta's run-heavy offense, especially since it ranks fourth on the team. Detroit's Sam LaPorta, meanwhile, is on the rise, having posted 5-39-0 and 5-63-0 lines on 11 targets.

Over/Under: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 61% (13th highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers -2

Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Chris Olave

• Michael Thomas has picked up where he left off last season. The veteran receiver has had at least five catches in all five games since the start of 2022, producing anywhere from 49 to 65 yards in all five outings. Thomas has yet to find the end zone in 2023, but he has reached 11.0 fantasy points twice and sports a healthy 24% target share. Thomas is a fine WR3.

• Jones and his ex-teammate Jamaal Williams are both in doubt for Week 3 after suffering hamstring injuries. Jones was out last week and AJ Dillon underwhelmed in his stead. Dillon was held to only 63 yards on 16 touches while playing on 68% of snaps. Dillon remains a "TD-or-bust" back, having fallen short of double-digit fantasy points in 16 consecutive TD-less games. Dillon will only be a RB2 if Jones remains out.

• If Williams is sidelined as expected, the Saints' backfield is best avoided. Rookie Kendre Miller will likely make his NFL debut, but the likes of Tony Jones Jr. (38 snaps on Monday) and Taysom Hill (30) will be big factors. Note that Alvin Kamara is set to return in Week 4.

Over/Under: 39.4 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 54% (15th highest)

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -9

Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley

• Dameon Pierce has been limited to 82 yards, no touchdowns and 12.2 fantasy points on 30 touches through two games. The Texans' offensive line is a major concern, but it's also not ideal that Pierce has played on less than 50% of snaps in both games. Note that he was over 50% in every game other than Week 1 during his rookie season. Pierce did handle 15 carries and two targets (compared to six carries and one target for Houston's other RBs) last week, which confirms he remains the clear lead back, but the lack of production has knocked him to flex territory.

• Nico Collins is off to a hot start. The 2021 third-round pick ranks no lower than ninth among wideouts in targets, receptions, yards and air yards. Houston won't continue to average 74 offensive snaps per game (which will reduce Collins' volume), but he seems to have a good connection with C.J. Stroud on a team that will be throwing often this season. Collins is averaging 9.3 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 10 last season and has found his way into the WR2/3 mix.

• Christian Kirk got back on track with an 11-110-0 receiving line on 14 targets in Week 2, but keep in mind that Zay Jones was limited by injury to 64% of snaps. Kirk was a boom/bust producer prior to Ridley's arrival in 2022, so we should expect similar results in a suddenly crowded Jaguars offense this season. Consider Kirk a flex option, at best, against Houston.

Over/Under: 42.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 75% (7th highest)

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins -6.5

Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

• Javonte Williams has underwhelmed so far this season (under 10.0 fantasy points in both games) and took a step back in Week 2, playing on only 28 snaps compared to Samaje Perine's 31. On the plus side, Williams has racked up 31 touches this season and easily out-carried Perine 12-1 in Week 2. Continuing to defer passing-down work to Perine would be problematic, but Williams does have a good matchup this week against a Miami defense that has allowed the fifth-most RB fantasy points and fourth-most RB yards and touchdowns this season. He remains an RB2.

• Jerry Jeudy made his 2023 debut last week and handled five targets while playing on 69% of snaps. Considering he was a nearly every-down player when healthy in 2022, Sunday's usage suggests he was limited in his first game back from the injury. Better days are ahead for Russell Wilson's top target, and he can be considered a WR3 this week, despite a tough matchup against Miami.

Over/Under: 48.4 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 76% (6th highest)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings -1

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, T.J. Hockenson

• Kirk Cousins is a terrific streaming option against the Chargers this week. Cousins, who currently sits No. 1 in both QB fantasy points and passing scores (6), draws a Los Angeles defense that allowed 21-plus fantasy points to both Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Tannehill. The Chargers have allowed a league-high 712 passing yards, as well as four passing scores (third most).

• With Austin Ekeler out in Week 2, Joshua Kelley played on 78% of offensive snaps (good!), but was held to just 39 yards on 13 carries and without a catch on his one target (bad!). In Kelley's defense, it was a very tough matchup against Tennessee's elite run defense, and the heavy usage suggests a better day will be in store if he's called upon to start against Minnesota in Week 3.

• Jordan Addison has scored in both of his first two NFL games, but tread carefully here. Addison has been targeted only 11 times, which trails Jefferson (25), Hockenson (17) and K.J. Osborn (12), and is barely ahead of Mattison (10). At least for now, Osborn is playing on more snaps than Addison, which will limit the rookie to boom/bust production. Consider him as a flex option in a very good matchup.

Over/Under: 54.5 (highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 58% (14th highest)

New England Patriots -2.5 @ New York Jets

Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Garrett Wilson

• The Jets pivoted to a three-headed RB committee in Week 2, with Dalvin Cook (16), Breece Hall (15) and Michael Carter (15) each handling an almost-perfect split of the workload. However, none of the backs cleared four carries or two targets in the game. Hall remains the best fantasy flier of the trio -- we saw his upside when he put up 147 yards on 11 touches in Week 1 -- but until he's no longer limited, he'll remain a very risky flex.

• Hunter Henry finished 2022 with receiving lines of 5-52-0 (on six targets), 6-42-0 (seven) and, so far in 2023, he's produced lines of 5-56-1 (six) and 6-52-1 (seven). How's that for consistency? Despite the strong start, Henry's target share is "solid" at best (14%) and he has benefited greatly from New England's unsustainable 74.5 offensive snaps per game. Henry remains a TD-dependent borderline TE1.

Over/Under: 34.4 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 52% (16th highest)

Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ Washington Commanders

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefon Diggs

• Brian Robinson Jr. currently sits third in RB fantasy points, but he's not quite in the "lineup lock" mix just yet, especially against a good Bills defense. Robinson is dominating the carries in Washington (37, compared to just five for Antonio Gibson) and, while he's playing more in passing situations than expected, he's still been limited to only five targets (an 8% share). Robinson, who barely out-snapped Gibson in Week 2 (36-30) is a bit over his skis so far and a weaker game script against Buffalo could lead to a return to earth. He's safest as a RB2.

• Terry McLaurin doesn't quite make the cut for being a lock this week either. For starters, his targets are down with only 10 through two games (a career-low 16% team share) and he has seen six or fewer targets in six straight games. He'll also need to deal with probable Tre'Davious White shadow coverage here in Week 3. McLaurin is fine to start as a WR3, but expectations should be lowered.

Over/Under: 42.1 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 80% (4th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks -6

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Miles Sanders, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

• Adam Thielen produced a strong 7-54-1 receiving line on a team-high nine targets in Week 2. He's been the team's most productive pass-catcher so far in 2023, though note that Jonathan Mingo (13), Sanders (11) and Hayden Hurst (10) all are above or near his total of 11 targets for the season. The Carolina offense figures to struggle until Bryce Young gets up to NFL speed, leaving Thielen as no more than a weak flex.

Over/Under: 40 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 66% (10th highest)

Dallas Cowboys -12 @ Arizona Cardinals

Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, James Conner, CeeDee Lamb

• Dak Prescott has yet to produce a top-15 fantasy outing this season, but he wasn't needed much in Week 1's 40-0 blowout and played well in Week 2 (19.6 points against a good Jets defense). Prescott is a good streaming option this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points through two games despite facing Daniel Jones and Sam Howell.

• Believe it or not, Zach Ertz sits tied for 17th in the NFL (and first among tight ends) with 17 targets this season. It hasn't led to much production (77 yards), but he's still nonetheless seventh in TE fantasy points. Ertz's efficiency figures to improve as he continues to get back up to speed after last season's torn ACL. His heavy usage keeps him in the TE1 mix.

Over/Under: 40.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 91% (highest)

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs -12.5

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce

• D'Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch in Week 2, which helped clear up the Chicago backfield a little bit. Khalil Herbert (seven carries, three targets on 30 snaps) still led the way, but Roschon Johnson (four carries, two targets on 22 snaps) was just behind. Both backs ran 15 routes. Johnson could eventually take control as the lead back, but should be on benches for now. Herbert gets a slight short-term edge as the preferred flex.

• DJ Moore is tough to leave out of the lineup locks, but the Chicago passing game hasn't looked good out of the gate and Moore sits 49th in WR fantasy points as a result. The ex-Panthers star posted a 2-25-0 receiving line under Jaire Alexander shadow coverage in Week 1 before rebounding with a 6-104-0 line on eight targets last week. Kansas City has been terrific against perimeter wideouts this season (only slot receivers Christian Kirk and Amon-Ra St. Brown have cleared 12 fantasy points against them). As such, Moore is best viewed as a WR3 against potential L'Jarius Sneed shadow coverage.

Over/Under: 52 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 89% (2nd highest)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders -2.5

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, George Pickens

• Pickens is a lineup lock after posting a 4-127-1 receiving line on a career-high 10 targets in Week 2. Diontae Johnson was placed on IR on Monday, which locks Pickens in as Kenny Pickett's top target for at least three more weeks. Pickens, who has found the end zone in three of his past five games, is a fringe WR2.

• The Steelers backfield has some real "2022 Cowboys" vibes, with Jaylen Warren appearing to be more effective than "starter" Najee Harris. Pittsburgh seems to be aware of this development, as Warren (47 snaps) is barely trailing Harris (62) in playing time through two games. Harris holds a 16-9 edge in carries, but Warren ranks second on the team with 12 targets and trails Harris by only one touch (19-18). Harris remains the better RB2 ... for now.

• After handling a 12% target share as a rookie and 18% in 2022, Pat Freiermuth has seen only 7% of Steelers targets in 2023. Freiermuth's role hasn't changed much -- he ran 28 out of a possible 32 routes on Monday night -- but the dip in targets is moderately concerning. For now, he's best viewed as no more than a fringe TE1.

Over/Under: 41.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 65% (12th highest)

Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Dallas Goedert

• With two weeks in the books, Rachaad White sits fifth in the NFL with 41 touches. He struggled in Week 1, but rebounded last week with 103 yards and a score on 22 touches. White has a tough matchup this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed a league-low 82 RB rushing yards (and no scores) this season, but he'll see enough volume to keep him in the RB2 discussion.

• In Week 1, Kenneth Gainwell was the Eagles' lead back, playing on 62% of snaps and handling 14 carries and four targets. With Gainwell out in Week 2, D'Andre Swift soaked up 28 carries and three targets while playing on 76% of snaps. If Gainwell remains out, Swift will presumably remain the feature back and can be considered a solid RB2. If Gainwell returns, it's anyone's guess how this backfield will shake out, meaning Swift and Gainwell should both be viewed as no more than risky flex options.

Over/Under: 46 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 68% (9th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Puka Nacua

• Yes, Williams is a lineup lock after racking up the second-most RB fantasy points through two weeks of play. Williams established himself as the Rams' lead back in Week 1, but took it to another level with Cam Akers inactive (and now in Minnesota) in Week 2. The 2022 fifth-round pick played on 75 of 78 offensive snaps, registering a 14-52-1 rushing line and a 6-48-1 receiving line on 10 targets. Williams leads the league with four touchdowns and has "league winner" potential.

• With two weeks in the books, Tutu Atwell ranks among the top 10 wideouts in snaps, routes, targets, receptions, yards and air yards. The 2021 second-round pick has yet to find the end zone but still sits 16th in fantasy points. The Rams have run a league-high (and unsustainable) 155 offensive snaps, which has ballooned the team's offensive stats, but Atwell's 20% target share suggests he'll remain in the fantasy conversation until Cooper Kupp returns. Atwell is a WR3/flex.

Over/Under: 49.4 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 66% (11th highest)