Real or mirage? Evaluating NFL trends in the first two weeks

Cincinnati Bengals

The early surprise: WR Ja'Marr Chase is averaging 4.4 yards per target

The verdict: Mirage. The targets aren't the issue for Chase, as he ranks 21st in the league through two games. But those looks haven't translated into production. At 0.93 yards per route, he ranks 66th in the league in that category among qualifying receivers, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. If quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy, and that's a big if, Chase's target depth and overall numbers should rise. He had 2,501 receiving yards in his first two seasons and is one of the NFL's best big-play threats. -- Ben Baby

Cleveland Browns

The early surprise: The Browns lead the league in pass rush win rate

The verdict: Real. Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith look like one of the league's top pass-rushing duos. Ogbo Okoronkwo is also applying pressure out of Cleveland's three-DE sets. And new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is bringing the house down early and often with a series of blitzes, so leading the league with a 69.6% pass rush win rate isn't a shock. Though Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are struggling offensively, there's nothing to suggest that Cleveland won't be able to get after opposing passers the rest of the year. With its offense in disarray, Cleveland's pass rush will have to keep making plays if the Browns are to have any chance of contending in the AFC North. -- Jake Trotter

Pittsburgh Steelers

The early surprise: The Steelers rank 31st in total offense per game and 26th in points per game

The verdict: Real. This is only a surprise if you thought Matt Canada's offense would take off in quarterback Kenny Pickett's second year. Take the preseason for what it's worth, but in five series, the offense appeared to move the ball more fluidly than in all of 2022. Through two regular-season games, though, the Steelers' offense is even worse than a year ago, averaging 247 yards and 16.5 points per game. If you remove the 14 points scored by the defense on Monday night, the Steelers are averaging 9.5 points per game on offense, the worst mark in the NFL. They're also averaging a league-low 12 first downs. Last season, they averaged 20.3 points per game. -- Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

The early surprise: The Texans' defense is allowing QBs to complete 76.4% of their passes

The verdict: Mirage. The biggest reason for the high completion rate, which is the third worst in the NFL, is injuries to starting safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward. Backup safety Eric Murray also suffered an injury during the Texans' Week 2 loss with the Colts. The Texans have generated pressure in the pass rush, as opposing quarterbacks have been pressured on 43.1% of their dropbacks, good for fifth in the league. So when Pitre and Ward return, which should be sooner than later, expect that percentage to drop. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Indianapolis Colts

The early surprise: The Colts lead the league in rushing defense

The verdict: Real. The Colts have long been solid against the run, so them giving up 2.6 yards per carry isn't a stunner. But they have been particularly stout despite their shortcomings against the pass, which is a product of their underwhelming cornerback play. The numbers here underscore the performance of interior defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, who continue to solidify themselves as one of the best duos in the NFL. Another indicator that this trend could stick is that the Colts are getting penetration up front: Opponents are averaging 1.13 yards before contact on rushes -- second best in the league. -- Stephen Holder

Jacksonville Jaguars

The early surprise: The Jags' offense ranks last in third-down conversion rate

The verdict: Mirage. The Jaguars ranked ninth last season and have nine returning starters on offense, plus the team added WR Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars' offensive line has struggled against two of the league's better defensive fronts in the first two weeks and didn't have a lot of success on first and second down, either. Of their 24 third-down conversion attempts, 14 have been 5 yards or longer -- including six of 10 yards or longer. Better work on first and second downs will help them convert more than their current rate of 25% on third downs. -- Michael DiRocco

Tennessee Titans

The early surprise: The Titans are tied for third in rushing yards allowed per game

The verdict: Real. Stopping the run is something the Titans take personally, so allowing 65 yards per game isn't shocking. Tennessee has built its roster to be stingy run-defenders. Defensive tackle Teair Tart is developing a reputation as one of the league's best run-stoppers. Tart uses a lightning-quick swim move and agile footwork to get past interior offensive linemen and tackle backs for a loss. Jeffery Simmons is also a force along the interior, with Denico Autry setting the edge. Tennessee's defensive backs also tackle well, especially the safeties. It's no coincidence the Titans are already among the top three run defenses. The Titans had the NFL's top rushing defense last year and were 0.1 rushing yards short of that spot in 2021. -- Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

The early surprise: The Broncos are tied for the league lead in accepted penalties

The verdict: Mirage. There was almost no issue Broncos coach Sean Payton was more aware of when he arrived than Denver's penalties in 2022, as the Broncos' 113 penalties were tied for second in the NFL. The Broncos are tied with Baltimore for the league lead with 19 accepted penalties through two games. They also lead the league in defensive infractions with 12. Payton promised it would be cleaned up and said, "before you talk about how to win games, you also have to understand how not to lose games.'' -- Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs

The early surprise: The offense ranks 22nd in scoring

The verdict: Mirage. The Chiefs haven't looked right in scoring 18.5 points per game. They've cost themselves with turnovers, dropped passes and penalties, making it difficult for them to get into any kind of rhythm. These types of mistakes are unusual in large numbers for the Chiefs. Look for them to clean up a lot of these, especially as All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce gets healthier and more into the offensive flow. -- Adam Teicher

Las Vegas Raiders

The early surprise: RB Josh Jacobs is averaging 1.6 yards per carry

The verdict: Real ... for now. The reigning NFL rushing leader is rounding into shape after sitting out OTAs, minicamp, training camp and the exhibition season in a contract stalemate. And the Raiders are breaking in a new right guard in Greg Van Roten, so the offensive line is taking a bit to jell. And with the Raiders never having control of the line of scrimmage at Buffalo, where the All-Pro running back rushed for minus-2 yards on nine carries, the lack of success running the ball is entirely too real. Once Jacobs gets into game shape, the O-line is able to enforce its will and the Raiders are no longer one-dimensional, the tide will turn. At least, that's what the Raiders are counting on. -- Paul Gutierrez

Los Angeles Chargers

The early surprise: The Chargers still can't close out games

The verdict: Real. In Week 1, the Chargers had an opportunity to beat the Dolphins when quarterback Justin Herbert took the field with a little more than two minutes remaining, but they faltered in a two-point loss. A week later, Herbert had another chance in overtime against the Titans, but three incompletions led to Tennessee's winning field goal. A new offensive coordinator, a veteran linebacker, a first-round receiver and a newly rich quarterback were supposed to change things for the Chargers. But big expectations, followed by immense letdowns, have always been the standard for this team, and through two games, they have continued. -- Kris Rhim

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

The early surprise: The Cowboys are averaging five sacks per game

The verdict: Mirage-ish. With star linebacker Micah Parsons, maybe anything is possible, but averaging five sacks per game seems a bit much. The NFL record for sacks in a season is 72, set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. To think the Cowboys will get 85 sacks at their current pace is mind-boggling. But the Cowboys have a pass rush that can come from "anywhere at any time," according to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. It's not reliant on only Parsons, who has three sacks in two games. The Cowboys' record for sacks in a season is 62. That seems doable, especially since the core of this defense produced 54 sacks last year. -- Todd Archer

New York Giants

The early surprise: The Giants' defense has zero sacks

The verdict: Real ... for now. That's right, the old goose egg after two games. This isn't what you expect from Wink Martindale's aggressive defense. The defensive front is supposed to be the strength of this team. But it will not last. The Giants started to blitz relentlessly and got pressure in the second half on Sunday. The sacks will come. They were in the top half of the league (13th) last season with mostly the same group. -- Jordan Raanan

Philadelphia Eagles

The early surprise: The Eagles are ranked 21st in passing offense

The verdict: Mirage. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing offense have shown some rust in averaging 162.5 yards per game, but the early struggles can be largely tied to how opponents are playing them. Defenses are dropping seven and eight men into coverage and keeping the safeties back to prevent big plays downfield. If Philadelphia continues to run the ball effectively (more than 250 rushing yards in Week 2), it'll force defenses to change their approach, which should open things up through the air. -- Tim McManus

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Washington Commanders

The early surprise: DE Montez Sweat has 1.5 sacks per game

The verdict: Real. Sweat probably won't average 1.5 sacks per game this season; that'd set an NFL record. But it speaks to him finishing more at the quarterback, as he failed to record a double-digit sack season in his first four years. Some of his improvement stems from his work with assistant line coach Ryan Kerrigan, the team's all-time sack leader. But it's also a function of the talent around him. The line has multiple playmakers in tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen and fellow end Chase Young. Sweat has been relentless more than he's been quick to the ball; he's taking advantage of passers either being flushed from the pocket or holding the ball thanks to improved coverage in the secondary. That said, Sweat is playing at a high level. -- John Keim

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears

The early surprise: QB Justin Fields looks worse than he did last season

The verdict: Real. The Bears' quarterback has a 23 QBR through two games, which is 31st in the league. Fields has thrown 66 passes in their first two games, which is not something he has shown he can handle thus far in his career, but it's not like the Bears have helped him along by injecting a heavy dose of play-action or leaning on the run game. Fields' flaws are more magnified and feel worse than a year ago. He's still holding on to the ball too long -- on 43 dropbacks where he's had at least three seconds to throw, 23 plays have resulted in incompletions or sacks. It's clear Fields isn't seeing receivers downfield. -- Courtney Cronin

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Detroit Lions

The early surprise: TE Sam LaPorta has 10 receptions in his first two career games

The verdict: Real. It didn't take long for Lions QB Jared Goff to establish trust in his rookie tight end, whom Detroit picked in the second round. Their chemistry developed in training camp and offseason workouts, where LaPorta proved himself early, which is why he has 102 receiving yards in his first two games. The chemistry with Goff could strengthen as the season progresses, so it certainly seems like LaPorta will continue to play a pivotal role as an impact player in this offense. -- Eric Woodyard

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Green Bay Packers

The early surprise: QB Jordan Love has six touchdown passes and zero interceptions

The verdict: Real. Now, let's be even more real: He's not going to finish with 51 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. But the biggest question about most first-time starting quarterbacks is whether they can take care of the ball. And Love has been unflappable in that regard. He said before the season that he was willing to take the checkdowns if necessary and not force the ball, and he's done just that. At some point, he's going to need to connect on some deep balls, but that's about the only thing missing from Love's game right now. -- Rob Demovsky

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Minnesota Vikings

The early surprise: The Vikings have committed seven turnovers and have a minus-6 turnover margin

The verdict: Mirage. They are the first team since 2003 to lose six fumbles in the first two games of a season, putting them on track to tie the NFL record for fumbles per game (36 in 12 games by the 1959 Chicago Cardinals). But there have been scores of studies that show fumble recoveries are a random event. So even if their pace of fumbles continues, history tells us they'll start recovering some of them to minimize the damage. -- Kevin Seifert

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

The early surprise: The Falcons have allowed 17.0 points per game

The verdict: Real. Atlanta spent a lot of money on its defense in free agency, bringing in new starters at safety (Jessie Bates III), linebacker (Kaden Elliss), edge rusher (Bud Dupree) and defensive line (Calais Campbell and David Onyemata). They've made a marked difference. Add in more depth at every position and an aggressive style with first-year coordinator Ryan Nielsen, and the Falcons' defense looks more formidable than the last two seasons, when Atlanta struggled to get off the field. The Falcons are allowing conversions on 34.8% of third downs compared to 45.9% last season. -- Michael Rothstein

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Carolina Panthers

The early surprise: QB Bryce Young ranks 28th in completion percentage

The verdict: Mirage. Young completed an average of 65.8% of passes at Alabama, but he completed only 58.3% of his attempts during the preseason, and a big reason was pressure. That's still an issue in the first two games, helping contribute to his 59.2% completion percentage. He's completed only 6 of 19 (31%) attempts under pressure, with four sacks in the first two games. Once he gets better protection, it's realistic to believe his numbers will shoot up dramatically. -- David Newton

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New Orleans Saints

The early surprise: The Saints have allowed eight sacks in the first two games

The verdict: Real. This seems to be a trend for the Saints in early games. At this time last season, they'd allowed 10 sacks, and they allowed seven in the first three games of 2021. The offensive line issue is certainly real, and coach Dennis Allen admitted the Saints "haven't done as good of a job at protecting the quarterback early in the game." Until the unit starts to jell, the offense will likely continue to face problems with consistency. -- Katherine Terrell

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The early surprise: New offensive coordinator Dave Canales is the answer for QB Baker Mayfield

The verdict: Real. Under Canales, who has been largely credited for helping revive Geno Smith's career with the Seahawks, Mayfield has a top-10 ranking in Total QBR (66.4), completion percentage (69.1%) and touchdown passes (three), and he hasn't turned the ball over. He'll tell you he needs to be better in the red zone, and the Bucs were 1-for-4 in that department last week, but Mayfield is a natural in this system. -- Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals

The early surprise: The Cardinals' defense has nine sacks in two games

The verdict: Real. The Cardinals' pass rush has proved to be fast, effective and mighty. Arizona is second in the NFL with nine sacks, and its sack rate of 10.8% is fourth in the league. The Cardinals' front seven is deep, and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis has been creative with his fronts, which have created mismatches in the Cardinals' favor and should be sustainable as the season evolves. -- Josh Weinfuss

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Los Angeles Rams

The early surprise: WR Puka Nacua is off to a record-breaking start

The verdict: Real. On Sunday against the 49ers, Nacua broke the NFL's single-game record for receptions by a rookie with 15 and set an NFL record with 25 catches in the first two games of his career. It's clear that even after Cooper Kupp returns from injured reserve, Nacua will have a big role in the Rams' offense. Of course, the target share will even out, but quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay have expressed the confidence they have in the fifth-round rookie receiver, who has impressed the Rams' coaches with his physicality and knowledge of the game. -- Sarah Barshop

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San Francisco 49ers

The early surprise: K Jake Moody has made all 12 of his kicks

The verdict: Real. Moody is one of five kickers since the merger to make six-plus field goals and six-plus extra points without a miss in his first two career games. He's going to miss at some point, but the early fears that came with his preseason misfires and his right quad injury have been alleviated. Moody is kicking in games like he has in practice, and his 57-yarder against the Rams is the second-longest field goal in 49ers history. If he can remain consistent, Moody will wipe away all the doubts that followed San Francisco using the No. 99 pick on him in this year's draft. -- Nick Wagoner

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Seattle Seahawks

The early surprise: The Seahawks have allowed 2.9 yards per carry

The verdict: Real. Or at least real-ish. That figure ranks third best in the NFL through two weeks. That low of an average hardly seems sustainable when you consider that no team allowed fewer than 3.4 yards per carry last season, and even the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks defenses allowed 3.7 YPC over their two Super Bowl seasons. So there's bound to be at least some regression, but there's no denying that Seattle's run defense is improved from the unit that was one of the league's worst a year ago. And they've done it without safety Jamal Adams, who figures to be a difference-maker against the run when he returns in Week 3 or 4. -- Brady Henderson