We're onto the second weekend of the 2023 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 2 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Is the Chargers' run-heavy approach concerning?
Here's a number I did not expect to see after opening weekend. Looking only at plays around the league when win probability was between 15-85% (i.e. the game was still in question), the Chargers had the lowest designed pass rate in the NFL in Week 1 at just 49%.
It's hard to be too critical, considering Los Angeles was more effective running than passing (0.28 EPA per play vs. 0.14, respectively). But with Justin Herbert at quarterback, it's safe to assume the Chargers will be better at passing than running going forward. If they're planning to be run-heavy this season, that's worrisome. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was run-heavy in Dallas last season (eighth-highest designed run rate given the win probability parameters above), so I'm not even really basing this off one game. It's something to watch in Week 2 against Tennessee and going forward.
Is Jaylen Waddle's route tree an advantage against the Patriots' defense?
Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill had a huge 215-yard Week 1, but I like the way Waddle's route tree matches up against the Patriots' coverages. Dating back to last season, Waddle has run corners (8% of his routes), deep crosses (6%), digs (11%), posts (11%) and slices/deep overs (7%) all at higher than average rates for a wide receiver. With the exception of posts, these route types all perform well against single-high coverages in terms of yards per route run. And that's relevant because the Patriots have run single-high 65% of the time since the start of last season, second-most in the league.
How does Arden Key match up with Rashawn Slater?
Key was a sneaky-nice signing by the Titans this offseason after the pass-rusher had just 4.5 sacks in 2022 with the Jaguars but with a 23% pass rush win rate, which would have ranked in the top 10 at edge had he qualified. In Week 1, Key posted a 40% PRWR at edge, tied for best at the position. Was that a function of Key or just that Key was playing against the Saints' Trevor Penning? The Chargers and Slater will be a good test. If Key has success again, it will not only help the Titans on Sunday but also indicate they got a steal in free agency.
Is Sam Howell the NFL's newest sack magnet?
I was worried about what Howell's college sack rates at North Carolina (7.9% and 10.7% in his penultimate and final seasons, respectively) meant for his NFL career heading into the season. Now I'm really worried after the Washington quarterback took six sacks against the Cardinals. Sack rates are pretty sticky and say more about the QB than the offensive line (though on paper, Washington's unit isn't great), so I think when Howell faces a team better than Arizona -- which is literally all of them -- he's going to have trouble in this department. Sunday is a pretty good chance for Zach Allen to record his first sack as a member of the Broncos.
Can Rashid Shaheed continue his incredible efficiency?
It's hard not to be impressed by Shaheed's numbers. The Saints receiver posted a remarkable 2.7 yards per route run as an undrafted free agent rookie last year, though it came over a small sample (182 routes). It was hard to know if he was for real. Well, we've got another data point in the affirmative: Shaheed posted 3.6 yards per route run in Week 1. And his route profile improved, as he ran crossers, deep outs, posts and digs -- high-value routes in terms of yards per route run -- all at higher rates than he did in 2022. Additionally, he ran low-value routes like hitch-and-go's less frequently. Of course, single-game route samples are tiny, but from both a Saints and fantasy standpoint, all I see are positives.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (45.7% rostered)
LaPorta had a solid debut in Week 1 against the Chiefs, finishing with 39 receiving yards. His five catches were the most by a rookie tight end in their debut since 2019. Since 2017, the Seahawks' defense has ranked near the bottom of the league in yards allowed and points against, and it was an excellent matchup for tight ends last season. Is the trend continuing in 2023? In Week 1, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee caught three of four targets for 49 yards against them.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (30.7% rostered)
Christian Watson did not practice on Thursday as he recovers from a hamstring injury, and even if he plays against the Falcons, his snaps could be limited. A hamstring injury has also sidelined running back Aaron Jones, who has averaged 4.2 targets per game in the past 18 games. So this positions Doubs for success this weekend, especially after his 18.6-fantasy point performance in Week 1. He's an excellent route runner who excels in contested catch scenarios. (I also like Packers tight end Luke Musgrave if you are looking for pass-catchers this weekend.)
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints (27.2% rostered)
Carr started slowly against the Titans in Week 1, but things eventually clicked with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed. He completed 69.7% of his passes for 305 yards and is well-positioned to have a strong performance against a Panthers secondary that is currently dealing with multiple injuries. Over the past five seasons, Carr averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game, and his ceiling is much higher in this matchup.
Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts (18.9% rostered)
Moss was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and is on track to make his season debut against the Texans. Week 1 starting running back Deon Jackson had 18 touches against Jacksonville, which translated to only 28 total yards. Moss should be very involved on Sunday as Indy looks for a spark in the backfield without Jonathan Taylor in the lineup. During Weeks 15-18 of the 2022 season, Moss averaged 18.3 touches and 86.5 total yards. One of those games came against the Texans, when Moss scored 21.1 fantasy points.
Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots (11.3% rostered)
Jones had his first career game with 300-plus passing yards and three passing touchdowns last weekend against the Eagles. He also had 52 pass attempts, a career-high. Jones has benefited from the offseason hiring of offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, and the third-year QB appears more calibrated with Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and his other receiving playmakers. Add in that DeVante Parker could also return -- giving Jones another playmaker to threaten the Dolphins' secondary vertically in Week 2 -- and I see some potential here. The game's 46.5 total implies a high-scoring affair, which bodes well for Jones' sleeper appeal.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Sauce Gardner will intercept Dak Prescott
The Jets played Cover 2 on 27.1% of dropbacks in the Week 1 win over Buffalo, and their star cornerback is excellent at laying in the weeds as a flat defender. So I see Gardner being able to bait Prescott and close the boundary window to steal one on Sunday. Prescott wasn't asked to do much in the Cowboys' opening-week win over the Giants, but he threw 25 interceptions over 2021-22.
Deebo Samuel will log more than 60 receiving yards
Against the Rams' single-high and split-safety zone looks, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan can scheme coverages to create open voids for Samuel at the second level. These are catch-and-run targets against an L.A. defense that played zone on 65.5% of coverage snaps in Week 1. Samuel caught five of seven targets for 55 yards in Week 1 against Pittsburgh.
New England will upset Miami
If you need an upset pick, then maybe take a look at the Patriots (+3) at home versus the Dolphins. Expect a run-heavy/play-action approach from New England here, with coach Bill Belichick's defense playing more zone shells against Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to cut crossers and limit vertical throws.
Cleveland will sack Kenny Pickett three times
Pickett was sacked five times in the Week 1 loss to the Niners, and he'll see a pressure-heavy Browns defense on Monday night. Jim Schwartz's unit registered a blitz rate of 42.1% in Week 1 against Cincinnati, showcasing multiple fronts, blitzes and stunts. And the Browns' 69.6% pass rush win rate ranked No. 2 in the league in the opening week, while the Steelers' 55.0% pass block win rate was 17th. Cleveland can heat up the pocket against Pittsburgh.
Jahmyr Gibbs will catch more than four passes
Gibbs caught only two passes in his pro debut last week, a win over the Chiefs. I think that number jumps on Sunday versus Seattle. We should see more backfield releases and flexed alignments, and Gibbs has playmaking traits in the pass game.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Rest served Travis Kelce well. The Chiefs sat their tight end last Thursday night in hopes that an extra week of rehab would give him a chance to play in Week 2 against Jacksonville. He has more than a chance. As one person with the team told me, "He looks a lot better than I thought he might. He's ready to roll."
In other tight end news, Baltimore's Mark Andrews (quad) is hopeful to play after practicing in full Friday. The Ravens were cautious with him last week, but he seems to be trending in the right direction.
The Jets, however heartbroken over Aaron Rodgers' catastrophic Achilles injury, quickly turned their attention to Dallas, with some coaches getting back to work just a few hours after the late Monday win against Buffalo. Shaking off the devastation on a short week, the Jets are rolling with their plan of Zach Wilson as the starter, while Tim Boyle was elevated from the practice squad to serve as the backup. But they will add a quarterback at some point. They showed interest in the Rams' Brett Rypien this week and will continue to look for veterans. Recently retired Chad Henne was also a name that was discussed. Both Rypien and Henne have familiarity with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's system.
After 15 targets in Week 1, Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua should be a big part of the game plan against the 49ers despite an oblique injury. He has been a revelation for L.A. (119 yards in Week 1), becoming such a fast learner that Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have spent extra film time with him. Clearly, they see something.
With no new deal for Carolina pass-rusher Brian Burns -- who had two sacks last week -- my sense is he will play out the year and figure out his contractual future after that. The Panthers could try to revisit talks in-season, but both sides already had tried for months. The Panthers made a run at it but couldn't bridge the gap. Now Burns is eyeing a big year, which could help him secure the huge deal he seeks. The franchise tag for pass-rushers will be around $21.6 million, a number Carolina is probably willing to pay given his elite skill set.