Welcome to the Week 2 Fantasy Football Playbook, which kicks off Thursday night with the Vikings at Eagles.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)
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Green Bay Packers -1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones
Tyler Allgeier joined Robinson in finishing Week 1 as a top-10 fantasy RB. The feat was achieved by the duo despite Atlanta running only 48 offensive snaps, well behind the league average of around 64. Robinson remains the better fantasy option here, but Allgeier has now produced 18-plus touches and 94-plus yards in five consecutive games. He's a flex option.
Neither Drake London nor Kyle Pitts can be considered lineup locks this week after the duo combined for just 44 yards on four targets in Week 1. In fact, London was held without a catch on only one target. Better days are surely ahead (as noted, Atlanta ran very few plays), but game script figures to again favor the run in what projects to be a close game. Pitts is a back-end TE1 and London -- who averaged 9.0 targets and was fantasy's No. 21 scoring WR in Desmond Ridder's four 2022 starts -- is a flex.
Romeo Doubs should only be in lineups if Christian Watson (hamstring) remains out this week. Doubs scored two touchdowns in Week 1, but was limited to just 26 yards on five targets in a very run-heavy Green Bay game plan. No member of the Packers saw over five targets in the game. Watson is the best bet to clear that mark, when healthy.
Over/Under: 41.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 56% (15th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -9.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs
Jakobi Meyers exploded for a 9-81-2 receiving line on 11 targets in his Raiders debut. He's now one of only two players with at least one touchdown in four consecutive games dating back to last season -- Christian McCaffrey is the other. Meyers suffered a scary head injury late in the game, but if he's able to play, he should be considered a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Dalton Kincaid was limited to only 26 yards on four targets in his NFL debut, but the first-round rookie's usage gives us reason for optimism. Kincaid played on 79% of snaps, which trailed only Diggs (84%), Gabe Davis (94%) and Dawson Knox (84%) -- and was well ahead of No. 3 WR Deonte Harty (22%). Kincaid should be on benches for now, but he certainly has back-end TE1 potential moving forward.
Over/Under: 48.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 85% (Highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews
With J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) now out for the season, Justice Hill, Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon III are expected to lead the Baltimore backfield. Hill (17 snaps, 8 carries, 0 targets) held a slight usage edge over Edwards (13, 8, 0) in Week 1 (Gordon was on the practice squad), but a near-even split among all three could be in the cards moving forward. None are recommended Week 2 plays against Cincinnati, although Hill's receiving skills make him the top deep-league flex.
Zay Flowers soaked up 10 targets in Week 1, which was seven more than any of his teammates and nearly half of the team total for the game (21). Flowers (83% snap share) actually trailed Odell Beckham Jr. (93%) in both snaps and routes, but the good news is that the rookie was well ahead of secondary receivers Rashod Bateman (38% snap share) and Nelson Agholor (40%). Flowers' 9-78-0 debut suggests he's the receiver you want in this Ravens offense. He should be considered a WR3 this week.
Over/Under: 50.6 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 61% (11th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions -5.5
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
You'd be hard-pressed to bench either David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs, but both have roadblocks to a high fantasy ceiling. Montgomery played on 77% of the snaps in Week 1, which did net him 21 carries, but he was held without a single target on 16 routes. Gibbs, meanwhile, was limited to only seven carries and a pair of targets on 27% of snaps. Gibbs is expected to see his role increase in the coming weeks, but he'll obviously have a low floor until that comes to fruition. Consider both men to be fringe RB2s.
We're not starting Sam LaPorta just yet, but the rookie played on a healthy 81% of snaps and racked up five targets in his NFL debut. The rookie translated that usage to only 39 yards, but if he remains a full-time player in a solid-to-good Detroit offense, he'll make for a viable streamer this season.
Over/Under: 49.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 60% (12th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury. If he's out this week. Joshua Kelley becomes a lineup lock. Ekeler (16 snaps, five targets) and Kelley (16 carries and one target) nearly split backfield work in what was the league's game-script-adjusted most-run-heavy offense of Week 1. Tennessee is terrific against the run, but if called on to start, Kelley would be positioned for 15-plus touches and RB2 production.
Over/Under: 48.6 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 66% (5th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
DJ Moore was limited to only 25 yards on just two targets while dealing with Jaire Alexander shadow coverage in his Chicago debut. The matchup won't always be that tough, but Week 2 could be, with probable Carlton Davis III shadow coverage on tap. Moore is best valued as a WR3 this week.
The Bears rolled with a three-headed backfield committee in Week 1. Rookie Roschon Johnson (five carries and eight targets on 26 snaps) ended up with the most usage, but Khalil Herbert (nine carries and five targets on 25 snaps) was the busiest early on and D'Onta Foreman (five carries and three targets on 21 snaps) was also involved. This is a situation best avoided. While Herbert remains the top fantasy option of the group for now, Johnson appears most likely to emerge as the long-term lead back.
Over/Under: 44.1 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 58% (13th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram
Clyde Edwards-Helaire got the start for the Chiefs in Week 1, but that wasn't a shock considering that Isiah Pacheco missed a big chunk of the offseason due to injury. Pacheco quickly reestablished himself as Kansas City's best back and ended up with eight carries and a career-high four targets on 29 snaps. "CEH" totaled only six carries and one target on 14 snaps, and Jerick McKinnon managed a pair of targets on 19 snaps. None of these backs are lineup locks this week, but Pacheco could get there if his Week 1 passing-game usage sustains. For now, consider him to be a flex.
Zay Jones registered an impressive 5-55-1 stat line on seven Week 1 targets, but he's still not quite in lineup lock territory. Jones had his share of big games last season (17-plus points in four games), but was often a bust (under 11 points in 10 games) -- and that was prior to Ridley's arrival. Jones easily out-snapped and out-targeted Christian Kirk in Week 1, so he's the superior fantasy option of the two, but neither is more than a fringe WR3/flex play.
We're avoiding Chiefs wide receivers for now. Skyy Moore disappointed in Week 1, but he paced the group in snap share (69%) and remains the best bench hold.
Over/Under: 54.6 (Highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 64% (8th highest)
Indianapolis Colts -1 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Dameon Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr.
Anthony Richardson's NFL debut was as good as you could have hoped for if you took a flier on him on draft day. In addition to piling up 223 yards and one touchdown on a hefty 37 pass attempts, Richardson added 40 yards and another score on 10 carries. Richardson's legs supply him with a high floor, and Indianapolis' pass-heavy game plan only adds to his upside. The unproven rookie remains a risky fantasy option, but he's very much on the QB1 radar in 10-plus team leagues.
Giving up on Dalton Schultz after his sad two catches for 4 yards in his Houston debut? I'd give it another week. Schultz ran 43 of a possible 52 passing routes, which was five more than any of his teammates. The targets (4) and production weren't there yet, but if he continues to run most of the routes, he'll return to the TE1 conversation in a hurry.
Over/Under: 39.6 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 50% (16th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -8 @ Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Aiyuk will be tough to bench after career day in Week 1, but keep in mind that we saw big games like this during a boom/bust 2022 campaign. Aiyuk had three 20-plus point games (including two outings with a pair of scores), but he averaged just 10.0 fantasy PPG during his other 17 games (including the playoffs).
Puka Nacua soaked up 15 targets (41% share) in Week 1 -- an impressive feat for any player, let alone a fifth-round rookie making his NFL debut. Nacua was actually third among Rams wide receivers in snaps (Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell both had more), but the usage is hard to ignore. This entire passing game is risky against the 49ers' elite defense, but Nacua is well worth considering for your WR3 slot. Atwell, who equaled Nacua's 119 yards in Week 1, is a flex option.
Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 52-26 in Week 1. Akers handled more carries (22-15), but that was mostly game-script related, as Williams held a 14-11 edge prior to Akers getting 11 of the final 12 carries once the Rams had a double-digit lead. Williams was also a mainstay in passing situations (26 routes, compared to only a pair for Akers). Neither back is a recommended start against the 49ers, but Williams' usage makes him the preferred option of the duo.
Over/Under: 44.6 (7th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 76% (2nd highest)
New York Giants -5.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Darren Waller
Can we still trust Daniel Jones after New York's atrocious showing in Week 1? I believe so. Even in a "worst-case scenario" passing effort (104 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT), Jones still managed 43 rushing yards on 13 carries. He'll continue to add value with his legs, and his matchup goes from super-hard in Week 1 (Dallas) to good in Week 2 (Arizona). Jones remains a fringe QB1.
Marquise Brown was limited to 57 yards on five touches in Week 1, and it's fair to wonder if he has much upside with Joshua Dobbs under center. On the plus side, Week 2 presents a good matchup against New York's inexperienced perimeter corners. Brown is a back-end WR3.
Zach Ertz went from uncertain to play in Week 1 after his torn ACL in last season's Week 10 to soaking up nine targets against Washington. The heavy usage translated to a horrific 21 yards, but it's tough to ignore that the veteran is now averaging 7.5 targets per game in 21 healthy games with Arizona. Ertz's hefty target share is enough to make him a back-end streaming TE option in Week 2.
Over/Under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 66% (6th highest)
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -9.5
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson
Breece Hall exploded for 147 yards on 11 touches in his return from a torn ACL last week. That's the good news. That bad news is that Hall was limited to only 17 snaps (32%), with Dalvin Cook leading the backfield as expected (13 carries and three targets on 26 snaps). Michael Carter also played a part with one carry and two targets on 12 snaps. Hall's role will progressively increase, but it will take some time, and this is a tough matchup against Dallas. Hall is tough to bench, but he and Cook are both best viewed as flex options.
Is Jake Ferguson going to slide right into the role that allowed Dalton Schultz to accrue TE1 production over the past few seasons? Week 1 suggests he may. Ferguson -- a 2022 fourth-round pick -- played on 75% of snaps. That percentage would likely have been higher in a closer game and his seven targets were three more than any other Dallas player. Ferguson turned the heavy usage into only 11 yards, but that will be a season-low mark if he continues to see 6-8 targets per week. For now, though, consider Ferguson to be a bench stash.
Over/Under: 40.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 73% (4th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Denver Broncos -3.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Terry McLaurin
Listing Williams as a lineup lock might seem silly, but the 23-year-old handled 17 touches in Week 1 despite being "limited" in his return from a torn ACL. Williams barely out-snapped Samaje Perine (28-26), but had more carries (13-8) and led the team with six targets. Williams is a candidate for an Alvin Kamara-like role in Sean Payton's offense, which provides him with RB1 upside. Fire him up against Washington.
Brian Robinson Jr. led the Washington backfield in Week 1, edging out Antonio Gibson in snaps (38-24), carries (19-3) and targets (2-1). That last number is a surprise, but not a fluke as the two all but split duties on passing plays (Robinson ran 15 routes, compared to Gibson's 16). Robinson is the better flex option of the two for now and, if his passing-down role sustains, he'll find himself in the weekly RB2 mix.
Over/Under: 39.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 64% (9th highest)
Miami Dolphins -2.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa exploded for 466 yards in Week 1 after a 2022 season in which he was seventh in QB fantasy points during his healthy games. Tagovailoa has hit for the occasional boom game (you may recall his 469-yard, 6-TD game in Week 2 of last season), though his lack of rushing contributions will limit his overall fantasy ceiling (he had only five rushing yards in Week 1 after posting a 24-70-0 rushing line in 2022). Tagovailoa is a fringe QB1 against a good New England defense this week.
Kendrick Bourne exploded for a 6-64-2 receiving line in Week 1. It was an impressive effort, but there are reasons to expect a quick return to earth. Bourne handled 12 targets, which is a new career high in what was his 92nd NFL game. The heavy usage was boosted by an extremely high volume game in which New England called for a pass on 58 out of 78 offensive snaps. The Patriots were the only team that trailed on 100% of their offensive snaps in Week 1. Expect Bourne to settle in as a fringe flex option at best, especially if DeVante Parker returns from injury this week.
Over/Under: 42.6 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 63% (10th highest)
New Orleans Saints -3 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Monday 7:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Miles Sanders, Chris Olave
Jamaal Williams is a borderline lineup lock after the veteran back handled 18 carries on 49 snaps (77%) in Week 1. The problem is that Williams was, as usual, limited in the passing game (two targets) and translated 20 touches into only 52 yards. Williams is best valued as a fringe RB2, although he'll get a slight boost if Kendre Miller remains sidelined.
Olave (112 yards on 11 targets), Michael Thomas (61 yards on seven targets) and Rashid Shaheed (89 yards and one score on six targets) all reached double-digit fantasy points during a Week 1 game in which Derek Carr threw for 305 yards. Shaheed was the high scorer of the bunch, but his 55% snap share easily trailed that of Thomas (80%) and Olave (78%). Thomas remains the better flex option, but Shaheed is a name to watch.
Over/Under: 38.3 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 65% (7th highest)
Cleveland Browns -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Najee Harris, Amari Cooper, Pat Freiermuth, David Njoku
Deshaun Watson was serviceable in Week 1 (20.7 fantasy points), but most of that was generated by a 5-45-1 rushing line. Watson is now averaging a lowly 28.4 passing attempts per game since joining the Browns last season. Brock Purdy had no trouble slicing up the Steelers in Week 1, but this is still a very good defense that is likely to rebound moving forward. Watson gets the downgrade to fringe QB1 territory and you should feel free to stream if you have a better option.
Diontae Johnson (hamstring) is going to miss a few weeks, which vaults George Pickens and Allen Robinson II into the WR3/flex discussion. Pickens had another disappointing fantasy day in Week 1 (36 yards on seven targets), whereas Robinson was only slightly better (64 yards on eight targets). Pickens' upside makes him the better fantasy start, though this is a tough matchup against a Browns defense that limited the Bengals to just 82 total passing yards last week.
Over/Under: 40.1 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 56% (14th highest)