With NFL training camps underway, the draft is long gone and free agency is essentially over. So if a team wants to make a roster upgrade in August, it might instead look to the trade market.
The trade scene has been quiet for a bit now -- there hasn't been a deal since the Jets traded wide receiver Denzel Mims to the Lions last month -- so we decided to kickstart things, play matchmaker and throw out some ideas that might make sense for both teams. We came up with five deals that would be mutually beneficial and theoretically could happen in the final weeks before the regular season.
Let's dive in, starting with giving the Buccaneers another candidate to replace Tom Brady.
Jump to a hypothetical deal:
A new spot for a young QB?
Fresh start for promising edge rusher?
Top-tier receiver in a new city?
Buccaneers trade for QB Lance
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receive: QB Trey Lance, 2024 second-round pick, 2024 sixth-round pick
San Francisco 49ers receive: 2024 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
The Bucs aren't contenders in 2023, so their moves should be focused on saving money and acquiring draft assets. But there's one exception to that framework: chasing quarterback upside. They might as well use the upcoming 17 games as a testing ground for a potential future QB -- even if he's a long shot. That precisely describes Lance. If there's a 10% chance that Lance can become a long-term solution for the Bucs, that's still a lot higher than Baker Mayfield's chances to be that guy.
In the event that Lance -- who is only 23 years old -- pans out, the Bucs would retain control in 2024 for cheap and have the right to exercise Lance's fifth-year option in 2025. Injuries have limited him to eight games over the two seasons since he was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft, so there is still a lot of unknown to his game.
The 49ers would gain a 2024 third-rounder (while giving back a seventh) and essentially trade up in the second round. (While we don't know any team's 2024 draft position yet, that could be a substantial jump given the forecasts for both teams.) This deal arms the Niners with more draft capital for next season while retaining Sam Darnold as their backup signal-caller to Brock Purdy for 2023.
Ravens trade for DE Young
Baltimore Ravens receive: DE Chase Young
Washington Commanders receive: 2024 third-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick
It's hard to imagine the Commanders will want to pay all four of defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (already paid), defensive tackle Daron Payne (already paid), defensive end Montez Sweat (on fifth-year option) and Young (final year of rookie deal). That, plus the team deciding not to pick up Young's fifth-year option, means there's a pretty decent chance that Young's time in Washington is numbered.
Assuming that's right, the Commanders could have Young play out the season. If he plays well, the Commanders will get the benefit of that performance plus a potential compensatory pick if he walks in free agency. The problem is that the Commanders currently sit with almost $82 million in cap space in 2024, the third most in the league, per Roster Management System. And they figure to be players in free agency, which could make them ineligible for comp picks.
Hence, the idea of trading Young now. This is a great time to invest in Young, and I doubt I'm alone in thinking that. His value is dramatically depressed from when he entered the league as the No. 2 overall pick in 2020 or even from after his rookie season. Since that 2020 season, Young has played in only 12 games, torn his ACL midway through the 2021 campaign and recorded a mere 1.5 sacks.
But Young's underlying numbers are solid. He had a 22.5% pass rush win rate at edge in 2020, seventh best in the league -- as a rookie. He then had an above-average 19% rate in 2021 despite limited sack production, though he had an awful 5% rate last season in a tiny sample following his return from injury.
His ability to beat blocks and get pressure is why I could see Baltimore taking a swing. The team just extended defensive tackle Broderick Washington to help solidify the interior of its defensive line, but edge rusher is a weakness, with Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo at the top of Baltimore's depth chart. Young gives the group instant upside and costs very little to the Ravens financially -- only an approximate $1 million salary, per Roster Management System.
If Young works out, Baltimore gets the value of his play and can consider re-signing him or letting him go for a compensatory pick (which it has a better shot of getting than the Commanders would if Washington kept Young this year). But even if he doesn't work out, the Ravens would probably still get some sort of compensatory pick if Young signs elsewhere next March.
Jets trade for WR Evans
New York Jets receive: WR Mike Evans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receive: 2024 fourth-round pick, 2025 second-round pick
A pretty good rule of thumb is that it's hard to win the Super Bowl without two good-to-great receivers ... unless your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. Garrett Wilson checks one box for the Jets, but neither Allen Lazard nor Corey Davis is a suitable No. 2 option.
Yes, the Jets have what looks like a great defense on paper, but offense is crucial to winning championships, and if you're all-in with Rodgers, you might as well be all the way in. Presumably, this is the kind of move that Rodgers had in mind when he took a $35 million pay cut over the next two years.
Evans turns 30 later this month and while he has maybe shown slight decline, he's still incredibly consistent. Evans is coming off his ninth straight 1,000-yard season. In fact, he has never not reached 1,000 receiving yards. Evans would cost the Jets $13 million in salary this season and is in the final year of his contract. New York will be pretty cap strapped next offseason, so it would be more likely to add a compensatory pick for Evans should he sign elsewhere.
For the Bucs, this is recognition that they need to be in rebuilding mode. Paying $13 million to put another year of wear on Evans in a season in which they are +800 to win the worst division in football (per Caesars Sportsbook) does not make sense. They can save money and gain draft capital by accepting that reality now.
Jaguars trade for OL Mekari
Jacksonville Jaguars receive: OL Patrick Mekari, 2024 seventh-round pick
Baltimore Ravens receive: 2024 third-round pick
I admit this deal is a little unorthodox. A third-round pick for a backup offensive lineman? Let me explain.
For all the good vibes the Jaguars have after reaching the divisional round of the playoffs last season on the back of quarterback Trevor Lawrence's breakout, their offensive line still ranked 31st in pass block win rate in 2022. Then their best pass-blocking tackle, Jawaan Taylor, left in free agency. Their other tackle, Cam Robinson -- who ranked 59th out of 64 tackles in pass block win rate -- is suspended for the first four games of the season. Behind him on the depth chart are a pair of unproven players in Walker Little (2021 second-round pick with a poor 81% PBWR in his 249 career pass blocks) and Anton Harrison (this year's first-round pick).
The interior isn't much better. While Brandon Scherff holds down one guard spot, the other is held by Ben Bartch, who was below average in PBWR last season in a limited five-game sample at guard. But more concerning is center, where Luke Fortner ranked last among qualifiers in pass block win rate.
The reason we're talking about the entire line in relation to Mekari? He can play everywhere, and his pass protection numbers are pretty good, too. In 358 snaps across both tackle spots last season, he recorded a slightly above-average 90% pass block win rate that would have ranked 28th had he qualified. The year before, he was slightly better in more than 700 snaps at right tackle. And across 2019 and 2020, Mekari mostly played center and guard and was well above average in PBWR at both spots in a limited sample.
Simply put, Mekari can play tackle at the start of the season if Little and/or Harrison aren't cutting it, then move inside once Robinson is back.
So why a third-round pick for a non-starter? Because I'm not sure the Ravens would do it for anything less. All the reasons I just described, plus team control for two years at around $4 million, make him pretty valuable to Baltimore. But he's a little more valuable to the Jaguars, for whom he could assuredly start at some position. I can't imagine Baltimore wants to let him go, but a third-round pick is a third-round pick.
Titans trade for WR Renfrow
Tennessee Titans receive: WR Hunter Renfrow, 2024 sixth-round pick
Las Vegas Raiders receive: 2024 fourth-round pick
The Titans looked like a potential rebuild candidate going into the offseason, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry remained on the roster, and the team recently signed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, clearly signaling its intention to win in 2023. Hopkins was a start to fixing a deficient receiving group that featured Treylon Burks, a 2022 first-round pick who was just OK in his rookie season (444 receiving yards in 11 games), and not a whole lot else.
Renfrow would likely be a significant upgrade in the slot over Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who finished with the second-worst overall score in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics (RTMs) last season, or Kyle Philips, a 2022 fifth-rounder who had eight receptions in an injury-shortened rookie campaign. Yes, Renfrow never found his footing during an injury-marred 2022 campaign, his first in Josh McDaniels' system with Las Vegas. He managed just 1.2 yards per route run. But as recently as 2021, Renfrow managed 2.0 yards per route run and had a 70 overall score in the RTMs -- 13th best among WRs.
The Titans would pay a modest $6.5 million salary for Renfrow this season and then have the choice on whether to pay him $11.2 million in 2024.
From the Raiders' perspective, I don't think they need to trade Renfrow. But the slot WR spot is a little crowded there, with free agent signee Jakobi Meyers (58% in slot last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and rookie Tre Tucker (93% of routes in slot at Cincinnati last year) added to the roster. If Renfrow isn't going to be on the roster in 2024, dealing him now gives the Raiders a little draft compensation and light salary cap relief.