What's that? You thought my overreactions column was just an in-season thing? Now, why would you think a thing like that?
The NFL offseason might be the best time of all to examine overreactions. Teams make all kinds of moves, months out from the start of the season, fully convinced they'll work out in a certain way, only to be surprised, disappointed, elated or whatever once the real games start. We can quickly find out which moves really made sense and which ones didn't.
So we're going to pick 10 offseason items -- 10 conclusions to which you might have jumped as a result of this offseason's activity -- and tell you whether they're overreactions. This way, you don't have to wait until the season to find out. You're welcome.
Jump to:
Pats last in division? | Bengals' OL fixed?
Jets to Super Bowl? | Cowboys run-heavy?
Chargers' pass game boost? | Lions' division hopes?
Jags' hype real? | Young's instant stardom?
Diggs issues in Buffalo? | Donald to be traded?
The Patriots will finish last in the AFC East for the first time since 2000
Time was, you could write "New England" in permanent ink as AFC East champion when you made your preseason predictions. But times have changed.
The Bills have won the division each of the past three seasons, averaging 12.3 wins per year while doing so. They're still the favorites, but the Jets added quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a roster that won seven games in 2022 with actively harmful quarterback play, and the Dolphins were a playoff team last season even with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing a chunk of games because of concussions. The Patriots were 8-9 in 2022, only one game better than the last-place Jets. And you can make the case that everyone else in the division got better this offseason.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I don't think it's automatic that they will. Don't get me wrong. The Patriots' offense was a mess last season, as coach Bill Belichick put former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in a practically impossible position as a first-time offensive coordinator. The plan was a flop. But this offseason, the Patriots hired former offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, and it's fair to assume things will be better organized around third-year QB Mac Jones.
The Patriots also, on paper, have a potentially elite defense. They don't appear to have the same kind of offensive firepower their division rivals have, but they still have Belichick, the defense should keep them in games, and Jones should be better under O'Brien.
So yes, the Patriots might just have a good team this season. The problem is, they could have a good team and still finish last in this stacked division.
The Orlando Brown Jr. signing finally fixes the Bengals' protection issues
Even with big extensions looming for quarterback Joe Burrow, receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Logan Wilson and (next year) receiver Ja'Marr Chase, the Bengals spent big free agent money to bring in Brown to play left tackle. Burrow has been sacked 121 times over the past two seasons, and the Bengals know that's not sustainable if they want him to be their long-term franchise quarterback (which they obviously do). Cincinnati was 30th in pass block win rate last season at 50.1%.
After spending big on the interior line in 2022 free agency, they struggled at the tackle position last season. Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round pick, has been a bit of a disappointment at left tackle, so the Bengals brought in the guy who played the position for the Super Bowl champs and gave him a four-year, $64 million contract with $31.1 million guaranteed.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Brown isn't the perfect left tackle. Part of the reason Baltimore traded him to Kansas City two years ago and the Chiefs didn't bring him back this offseason is because those teams viewed him more as a right tackle who insists on playing on the left side. But the way the Bengals operate their passing game, with Burrow's ability to move around in the pocket and get a rid of the ball quickly, should help mitigate any issues Brown might have at left tackle. He might actually be a perfect fit for what Cincinnati wants to do.
As long as Burrow's preseason calf injury doesn't linger into the season, this ought to be the best pass-protecting line he has had in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers makes the Jets legitimate Super Bowl contenders
The Jets went 7-10 last season with some of the worst quarterback play in recent NFL history. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year, a remarkable feat given his QBs, and cornerback Sauce Gardner won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Running back Breece Hall was on track to challenge Wilson for the offensive award before his season-ending injury. If there's a team with a young core to be excited about, it's the Jets, and they added Rodgers believing they were a quarterback away from the Super Bowl.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Yes, the Jets' young core is talented and exciting, but it also is very young. It's easy to make Tom Brady/Bucs comparisons and say Rodgers is the experienced veteran who can help teach the youth how to win, but Rodgers hasn't exactly been a postseason superstar recently with the Packers. He turns 40 in December and pulled a calf muscle on the first day of minicamp, a reminder that everything rests on his ability to hold up physically.
Attitude-wise, everything has been absolutely great so far. But will Rodgers be able to maintain patience with his young supporting cast if things start to go poorly? Hey, anything's possible. I just think there's a very wide range of potential outcomes for this Jets team, and I'm not ready to anoint them challengers to the Chiefs in early August.
The Cowboys are going to be a run-first offense
In one of the offseason's more head-scratching developments, the Cowboys parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose Dallas offenses scored more points over the past four years than any team in the NFL besides the Chiefs. In explaining the move, coach Mike McCarthy said he would take over as the offensive playcaller and made some oddly critical comments about Moore's obsession with "lighting up the scoreboard."
After a season in which quarterback Dak Prescott tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions (and then threw two more in the playoff loss to the 49ers), McCarthy has talked about wanting to run the ball more and keep things more controlled on offense. This has led to a lot of chatter about the idea of Dallas trying to take the ball out of Prescott's hands and run it more.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
As with everything related to the Cowboys, too much is being made of this. First off, only five teams in the league had more rushing attempts last season than the Cowboys. Second, we have a ton of data on McCarthy offenses, and absolutely none of it supports the idea he wants to run the ball more.
In McCarthy's five years as the Saints' offensive coordinator from 2000 to '04, New Orleans ranked 17th in the league in rush attempts and 18th in rush yards. In 2005, with McCarthy as offensive coordinator, the 49ers ranked 20th in rush attempts and 17th in rush yards. In 13 seasons with McCarthy as head coach, the Packers ranked 26th in the league in rush attempts and 20th in rush yards. And in McCarthy's three years so far as Cowboys head coach, Dallas has ranked 18th in rush attempts and 10th in rush yards (which indicates Moore maybe knew what he was doing with the run game). That's 22 years' worth of evidence that disputes the idea that a McCarthy team will be run dominant.
Finally, the Cowboys aren't very deep at running back, and their lead back is Tony Pollard, who has never really functioned in that role for a full season and is coming off a major left leg injury. It would be shocking if the Cowboys (who added wide receiver Brandin Cooks this offseason to complement CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup) don't throw it more than they run it. McCarthy just wants to be able to run it late in games to put away leads.
Kellen Moore will help Justin Herbert reach a new level
The flip side of the Cowboys letting Moore go? The Chargers might have caught a huge break with the ability to hire him as their offensive coordinator.
Chargers coach Brandon Staley told me this week at training camp what he liked about Moore was he "makes it easy for the quarterback, allows the quarterback to play fast. I don't think he bogs the quarterback down with things that don't matter." Staley also said he sees similarities between his offensive personnel and the group Moore worked with in Dallas. Herbert has looked incredible so far in camp and told me he's excited about the offense and working with Moore.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
As brilliant as Herbert has been through his first three years in the league, he's 25 years old and still has upside. Despite finishing just 11th in Total QBR last season (58.3), Herbert is fourth in the NFL since coming into the league in 2020 (64.1). Moore's work with Prescott indicates he has the ability to get the best out of a quarterback, and working with one as talented as Herbert should help Moore take his coaching to the next level.
Staley said the plan is to build on the things Herbert has done well under previous offensive coordinators Shane Steichen and Joe Lombardi and have Moore put his own stamp on it. The pairing of Herbert with a sharp young coordinator who has the perspective of a guy who played QB in the league not long ago has the potential to be spectacular.
The Lions are a lock to win the NFC North
Detroit finished last season on a high note, winning eight of its final 10 games and knocking the Packers out of the playoff hunt in the Sunday night regular-season finale at Lambeau Field even though the Lions themselves had been eliminated hours earlier. The league took notice, and the Lions are scheduled to play this season's Thursday night opener against the Chiefs on Sept. 7.
The strides quarterback Jared Goff made in 2022 under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson were significant. And this offseason, the Lions revamped their defense in free agency, and Johnson stuck around. Detroit is now a popular pick to win the NFC North in 2023. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Lions a 43.2% chance to take their division, the seventh-highest division-winner percentage in the NFL, and nearly 15 percentage points better than the next-highest NFC North team (Vikings, 28.7%).
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Vikings are the defending division champs, having gone 13-4 last season before losing in the first round of the playoff to the Giants, but they won a ridiculous 11 one-score games. That screams regression. The Packers, who won the NFC North in each of the previous three years, traded away Rodgers this offseason. And the Bears appear to have improved with a strong, aggressive offseason but also seem to still be at least a year away.
Yes, everything is set up for the Lions to build off last season's strong finish and claim their first division title since 1993. The thing is ... they haven't won their division since 1993! That division was called the NFC Central and included all of the current NFC North teams plus the Buccaneers. Rodney Peete, Erik Kramer and Andre Ware all started games at quarterback for that team. Barry Sanders had 1,115 rushing yards even though he missed five games. Interesting team, but for goodness sake. Detroit last won a division title during Bill Clinton's first term as president of the United States.
I like the Lions, too, but don't we need to see them win something before we're sure they're going to win something? What if the Vikings are really just that good at winning close games? What if QB Jordan Love is a solid NFL starter? What if the Bears' offseason was even better than we thought?
The Jaguars' season will be a disappointment if they don't win the AFC South
Jacksonville won six of its final eight games last season to take advantage of the Titans' fade and claim the division title in Doug Pederson's first year as coach and Trevor Lawrence's second as starting quarterback. The Jaguars went on to pull that incredible playoff comeback against the Chargers in the wild-card round before bowing out to eventual champion Kansas City in the divisional playoffs. Pederson's arrival helped Lawrence bounce back from the Urban Meyer disaster that sunk his rookie season, and the Jaguars enter 2023 with high hopes of building off last season's success and joining the conversation as one of the AFC's elite teams.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Other than the AFC West, I'm not sure there's a division that has a clearer on-paper favorite this offseason. The Titans still have Mike Vrabel as their coach, and the late-offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins suggests they still plan to contend, but last season's collapse also indicates Tennessee might be headed into a bit of a rebuild. The Colts and Texans are coming off rough campaigns and are likely to be starting rookie quarterbacks.
There's actually an opportunity for the Jaguars to take control of this division for a while. Pederson's winning history should help establish the right frame of mind to make that happen. And if Lawrence is as good as everyone said he was coming out of Clemson, he might be on the verge of a third-year leap that results in him joining the $50 million-plus club next offseason. Everything's lined up for the Jaguars, who absolutely should be expecting to repeat as AFC South champs.
The Panthers will win the NFC South behind rookie QB Bryce Young
Carolina is extremely excited about what it has seen so far from the 2023 No. 1 overall pick. The Panthers have surrounded Young with an experienced coaching staff that seems built to maximize the quarterback's talent, and Frank Reich is used to coaching teams into the playoffs. They also have a couple of veteran wide receivers for Young to lean on, along with a potentially excellent defense.
It's hard to know what to expect from rookies, but the stuff I'm hearing out of Carolina about Young reminds me a little of what I heard from the Bengals about Burrow in the 2020 offseason. They expected him to play well right out of the gate, and he did.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Saints seem like the biggest obstacle, though I know people like the Falcons' offensive skill talent, too. Tampa Bay is undergoing a major transition at quarterback and could challenge for the No. 1 pick in 2024. So can Carolina finish ahead of New Orleans? I don't see why not, if Young is as good as the Panthers think he is. The Saints have a lot of brand names on defense, but it's an aging group. Dennis Allen is still unproven as a head coach, and Derek Carr didn't do a ton of winning with the Raiders.
Every team in the NFC South is playing a soft-looking schedule, so we could see these teams win more games than expected. But I don't hate Carolina as a division-title pick -- I'm drinking the Bryce Young Kool-Aid.
The Stefon Diggs situation is going to be a problem for the Bills all year
Everyone sounds happy now, but it's hard to forget Diggs yelling at Josh Allen on the sideline during the playoff loss to Cincinnati and the receiver's odd one-day minicamp absence, which was rooted in some lingering issues he had with last season's offense. There's a lot of pressure on second-year Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to deliver, and if things don't go smoothly, no one would be shocked if Diggs lashed out again.
Diggs is their best offensive player besides Allen, catching 108 passes for 1,429 yards and 11 scores in 2022, and if his frame of mind isn't right, it could be a major problem as the Bills look to hold off the hard-charging Jets and Dolphins for the AFC East title.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
These things with Diggs tend to be short-lived. People who were with him in Minnesota say he had flare-ups but that they always seemed to get smoothed over. Allen is still going to be looking Diggs' way plenty if he's smart. The coaching and leadership in Buffalo are strong enough to manage these hiccups, and I think Dorsey will do well in his second season succeeding Brian Daboll. Even if the Bills have the occasional issue in a game, I don't see this derailing what the team has going on in the big picture.
The Rams could deal Aaron Donald at the trade deadline
The Rams won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, but right now, they project to possibly be the youngest team in the league. They're coming off a five-win season and parted ways with key veterans this offseason.
Donald is in his 10th season, openly contemplated retirement after his eighth and has nothing left to prove as a future Hall of Famer and one of the best defensive players in league history. The Rams are not looking to move Donald, Matthew Stafford or Cooper Kupp to further reduce salary and spin into a rebuilding phase, but sometimes things change.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
What would it take to get Donald for a stretch run? Whatever it is, pay it. This is a player who might be in his final NFL season, is still impossible to block and, if dealt, could qualify as the most significant trade-deadline pickup in league history. If the Rams are dead in the water by late October and Donald is again contemplating retiring after the season and wants to join a contender to see if he can bag a second Super Bowl title, why wouldn't a team accommodate him?
The Rams need high picks to help restock, as they haven't made a first-round selection since 2016. This could be a pipe dream -- Donald might want to finish his career with the Rams and is content with the title he has already won. But I'm keeping an eye on it, in large part because of how much fun it would be to watch teams pursue him at the deadline.