While those of us on the outside have only begun thinking about the NFL offseason after the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII earlier this month, the league's 32 teams have been preparing their plans for weeks, if not months.
Every organization always has one eye on the present and the other on the future, but once their seasons ended, it was full-speed ahead in preparing for March's player movement window.
Over the past two weeks, I've been breaking down the first key move each team should make before free agency begins. I hit the 16 NFC teams last week, and I'm evaluating each AFC squad this week. In some cases, it might not be the most important move of the entire offseason, with the Bears and what they do with the No. 1 overall pick as an example of where those two priorities differ. In many cases, this will be resolving a messy salary cap situation, retaining a key player or deciding whether to let a franchise stalwart leave for another team.
The Chiefs are relatively stable, but should the Bills let a critical piece of their rebuild leave? Should the Jets trade for Aaron Rodgers? And what will the Ravens do with Lamar Jackson? You can see my predicted first moves for all 32 teams, starting with Buffalo and their most difficult decision of the offseason:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Get a new deal done with Jordan Poyer.
After a frustrating end to their season, the Bills have to make a handful of significant decisions. They will likely restructure quarterback Josh Allen's deal in their efforts to clear out the $18.7 million in room they need to be cap compliant, but they have pending free agents in key roles on both sides of the football.
With all due respect to running back Devin Singletary, the most important decisions will come on defense, where both Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds are unrestricted free agents. With Buffalo already paying one player at safety (Micah Hyde) and at off-ball linebacker (Matt Milano), it would be tough for the organization to bring back both players for another season. It's more likely the Bills bring back one of those two starters, who have been regulars during the Sean McDermott era.
If the Bills can only have one, you can make a case for preferring Edmunds. At age 24, Edmunds might have his best football ahead of him, while Poyer is 31. Edmunds is coming off his best season, as he posted a career-best 69.9 passer rating allowed in coverage while missing just one tackle. The team might have started its rebuild by establishing a dominant duo in Hyde and Poyer, but its new essential combination might be Edmunds and Milano.
At the same time, Poyer has been such an impactful safety over the past six seasons. Edmunds has been far more inconsistent. The Bills allowed an additional half-yard per pass attempt when Poyer was off the field last season, a notable gap given that he missed four games via injury, with two of them coming against Kenny Pickett and Zach Wilson, who weren't exactly slinging the ball downfield.
Buffalo doesn't really have a replacement for Poyer on the roster. Dean Marlowe is a free agent and primarily a special-teamer, while Damar Hamlin's future in the NFL is uncertain after his cardiac arrest against the Bengals in January. General manager Brandon Beane used a third-round pick last year on Terrel Bernard, whose physical tools should help him step in if Edmunds leaves. With Hyde returning from his neck injury, I'd like to see the league's best safety duo ride for at least one more campaign.
Miami Dolphins
Cut Byron Jones.
Miami's spending spree from the 2020 offseason turned out to be a fiasco. Edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah did enough to stick around on a new deal, but linebacker Kyle Van Noy, running back Jordan Howard, defensive end Shaq Lawson and offensive lineman Ereck Flowers each failed to earn a second season with the Dolphins. New regimes can overturn rosters, but this wasn't even a new regime, as the team didn't fire Brian Flores and hire Mike McDaniel until after the 2021 season had been completed.
Jones was the linchpin of that class who Miami hoped would form a dynamic big three at cornerback with Jones, Xavien Howard and 2020 first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene. It hasn't worked out. Howard's play has ranged from solid to great over that timespan, but Igbinoghene hasn't emerged as a starting-caliber player and is likely about to have his fifth-year option declined.
After converting from safety to corner and impressing with the Cowboys, Jones hasn't lived up to expectations for the Dolphins. He never seemed comfortable playing under Flores and allowed a passer rating just north of 100 in each of his first two seasons. He then underwent ankle surgery in March 2022, and despite speculation at the time that the 30-year-old would return for training camp, he ended up missing the entire season. In a social media post over the weekend, he said he "can't run or jump" because of injuries he suffered.
The Dolphins are $12.7 million above the 2023 cap before thinking about new deals for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, tight end Mike Gesicki and safety Eric Rowe. I'm not sure whether those players will return, but with the emergence of undrafted rookie Kader Kohou, I can't imagine Jones returning at his $18.4 million cap hold for 2023. Designating Jones as a post-June 1 release would free up $13.6 million in 2023 space.
New England Patriots
Bring back Jakobi Meyers.
The Patriots might overhaul their receiving corps again this offseason. Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker and tight end Jonnu Smith are either possible or likely cap casualties. Nelson Agholor, the team's most expensive addition at wide receiver during the last receiving overhaul, is an unrestricted free agent. They will bring back second-year wideout Tyquan Thornton, tight end Hunter Henry and little else at receiver.
The one free agent I'd like to see return is the guy who was on the roster before any of those other players. Meyers consistently has been New England's most valuable and productive receiver when given the opportunity to play. Over the past two seasons, he has averaged 1.81 yards per route run and earned a target on nearly 24% of his routes, numbers that top those of Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson and Hunter Renfrow over that timeframe.
From the perspective of servicing embattled quarterback Mac Jones, Meyers' presence has been a significant boon. During Jones' first two seasons, he produced an even 50.0 QBR with Meyers on the field. When Meyers was on the sideline, though, his QBR dropped to 30.7. That's the difference between ranking 23rd in QBR over the past two seasons and finishing last, behind Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield.
Meyers plays the slot receiver position the Patriots value. This is the same team that once traded a 2007 second-round pick to acquire Wes Welker when the future star wasn't even a first-team receiver for the Dolphins, signed Danny Amendola in free agency in 2013 and made a run at signing Adam Humphries for meaningful money in 2019. New England also used a 2018 sixth-round pick on Braxton Berrios and signed Meyers as an undrafted free agent in 2019, with both turning into useful slot receivers. This is a spot the team can target late in the draft or with a priority undrafted player and eventually land a replacement.
For Jones, the future is now, and the Patriots need to surround him with players who actually help. Meyers is going to get a significant raise this offseason. Renfrow, a fellow slot receiver, had a career season in the red zone in 2021 and inked a two-year, $32.3 million extension with the Raiders this past June. A Meyers deal likely would come in around the same mark.
New York Jets
Trade for Aaron Rodgers.
Go for it. I've listed the reasons before. The Jets haven't had a quarterback post back-to-back above-average seasons since Ken O'Brien in the 1980s. Last season, they fielded the league's fourth-best defense by expected points added (EPA) per play from Week 3 on. They return virtually all of their key defensive contributors. I don't think their offensive infrastructure is quite as exciting as their fans do, but there's enough to believe Gang Green would have been a playoff team if it had simply started Joe Flacco all season over Zach Wilson.
Rodgers is expensive, even if his 2023 cap hit in a trade would be only $15.7 million. The Jets would owe him $108.7 million for the next two seasons or $129.6 million for the next three, at which point he would be 43. He often was ordinary in a frustrating 2022 season after winning back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, though he also was playing with one of the league's worst receiving corps on paper.
The draft capital involved wouldn't make things much easier. It's hard to imagine the Jets trading for Rodgers without giving up the No. 13 overall pick, if not more. While no team is a better fit for him in terms of desperation and closeness to the playoffs, there are enough teams lurking for the Packers to ask for a lot in return. If it's not the Jets, could it be the Commanders? The Raiders? The Panthers? The Bucs? There are teams that will look at the Russell Wilson fiasco in Denver and wince, but they always are going to find a way to talk themselves into going after Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
New York could consider holding onto the draft picks and going after one of the other veteran options. Derek Carr has never played with a defense as good as the one he would inherit here, and we've seen scenarios in which lesser quarterbacks -- Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer -- were able to win Super Bowls with great defenses. Jimmy Garoppolo, who will also be a free agent, came within one quarter of joining that group in 2019. Neither of those guys have Rodgers' ceiling, but the Jets could instead use the No. 13 pick to add an offensive tackle or a defensive lineman without missing much off Rodgers' floor.
If Rodgers drags his feet about returning to the league, the Jets might have no choice but to go for Carr to ensure they land the upgrade they need at the most important position. Better to have Rodgers than Carr, but it's absolutely essential to have somebody besides Wilson under center for Week 1, regardless of what the Jets have suggested about his future with the team.
If Rodgers is ready to return, they should make their move. Maybe it takes pick Nos. 13 and 74. I still think there's a chance they get something back for Wilson in a trade from a team looking to develop a quarterback prospect, just as the Jags did for Blaine Gabbert and the Cardinals did for Josh Rosen. New York likely would need to convert some of Wilson's roster bonuses into a signing bonus before doing a deal, but they could land a fourth- or fifth-round pick from a team in need of a backup passer.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Have serious conversations about trading Lamar Jackson ... before using the franchise tag.
The Ravens aren't going to let Jackson leave for nothing in free agency this offseason. They obviously would prefer to get a longer deal done right now, but the two sides reportedly aren't close on a new contract, and the price tag for upper-echelon quarterbacks is only going to go up as Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts all sign extensions soon. Jackson, who isn't using an agent in these negotiations, is a smart guy and hardly naive about where the market is going. If Baltimore isn't willing to get a deal done now, what's going to change when the price goes up even further?
In that universe, a departure becomes inevitable. The Ravens won't want to let Jackson leave for free, which would mean a franchise tag in 2023 to keep him around before facing the same conundrum again in 2024. By 2025, he would be essentially untaggable by any measure because of the cost, leading the team to lose him for nothing more than a third-round compensatory pick, as the Commanders did with Kirk Cousins. Avoiding that scenario behooves general manager Eric DeCosta to make a move before Jackson signs that second franchise tag in 2024, which would dissipate Baltimore's leverage in an instant.
While Jackson missed the final five games of the season for the second consecutive year after suffering a knee injury, the Ravens have more leverage in making a trade now than they would next year. As such, teams will likely be willing to offer them more this offseason than they will a year from now, when he would be only one year from unrestricted free agency.
The Ravens will have to franchise Jackson, which could help define the parameters of a possible deal. If DeCosta uses the exclusive tag, Jackson would be in line to earn about $45 million in 2023 and $54 million the following season, but no team would be allowed to negotiate with him on a long-term contract. On the other hand, the non-exclusive tag would cost $32.4 million for 2023 and $41.8 million in 2024, but other organizations would be able to negotiate a deal with Jackson. The Ravens could then match that deal or get two first-round picks in return.
Of course, all first-round picks aren't created equal, which makes the decision just that much more difficult for Baltimore. Getting the No. 29 overall pick and a 2024 first-rounder from the Saints or the No. 25 pick and a 2024 first-rounder from the Giants might not be an exciting return for a 26-year-old former MVP, especially if the Ravens don't have a replacement for Jackson. Leaving aside his bizarre trip to the Pro Bowl, Tyler Huntley has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt in 13 games over the past two seasons. Baltimore can go after a backup in free agency, but there's no long-term replacement on the roster.
With that in mind, it makes sense for the Ravens to approach teams in the top half of Round 1 about Jackson. Would the Falcons be willing to send the No. 8 overall pick and a 2024 first-rounder? Would the Panthers make a similar deal from No. 9, or the Titans at No. 11? Should the Ravens call Colts team owner Jim Irsay about the No. 4 overall pick, put the phone on hold and just play a loop of Sam Ehlinger and Carson Wentz turnovers until Irsay gives in? Even if those teams are only willing to offer a top-10 pick and a 2024 second-rounder, Baltimore might prefer those deals to getting two late first-rounders with the non-exclusive tag. Jackson would need to sign the tag to complete a trade, but if those teams are offering fully guaranteed deals, everybody could get what they want.
Cincinnati Bengals
Re-sign Jessie Bates.
While Joe Burrow said his championship window is his entire career, things are about to get much more difficult in Cincinnati. Burrow and wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase combine to make about $18.5 million per season on their rookie deals. Burrow and Higgins are due for massive raises this offseason, and Chase will follow next year. Once those three deals are signed, the three superstars will be making something closer to $100 million per year combined. All three deserve their money, but the price of doing business is about to go up dramatically.
In the process, a defense built largely through free agency will have to adapt. Four Bengals starters on defense are unrestricted free agents this offseason, and four more will follow after the 2023 campaign. Many of those investments have been successful, and players such as cornerbacks Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie are likely to receive their own significant raises in free agency. The Bengals simply can't afford to bring back all of those guys.
One player to prioritize, though, is Cincinnati's most impressive star on the defensive side of the ball. Bates is the heartbeat of the defense and excels as a communicator and post defender. For a team that loves to disguise coverages and change game plans more than most other defenses from week to week, Bates is essential.
The Bengals weren't able to sign Bates after an impressive postseason run in 2021, leading the organization to use the franchise tag. He actually struggled a bit during that 2021 regular season but was better during the 17-game campaign last season, picking off a career-high four passes. With Apple and safety Vonn Bell both free agents this offseason, Bates would afford the Bengals much-needed stability as they transition on the defensive side of the ball. The Bengals used a first-round pick on safety Dax Hill last year, and Hill would presumably move into the starting lineup in 2023. Hill can't take over for both Bates and Bell at the same time, however.
Cincinnati paid Bates a $12.9 million franchise tag in 2022 and would owe $15.5 million for a second tag this offseason. The top of the safety market is Derwin James Jr.'s deal, which is a little more than $19 million per season, but I don't think Bates would see that on the open market. A middle ground of $17 million per season seems good enough to get a deal done for both parties, but the Bengals might prefer to let him leave and use the savings to keep two or three lesser players instead.
Cleveland Browns
Create cap space.
This isn't the most exciting option, but the Browns don't have a lot of flexibility. They're $14.4 million over the 2023 cap and don't have a first-round pick. Outside of potentially linebacker Anthony Walker Jr., cornerback Greedy Williams or running back D'Ernest Johnson, most of their free agents won't be returning. Kevin Stefanski's team has 11 players with cap hits of $5 million or more, and all 11 are going to return in 2023.
For general manager Andrew Berry & Co., the first steps of a quiet offseason will likely involve creating cap space. The obvious place to go there is with the fully guaranteed contract of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was dismal after returning from his suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault, as defined by the league, on massage therapists. Watson's $46 million base salary is fully guaranteed, but the Browns can convert nearly all of it into a bonus and add a voidable year to the end of the deal to create short-term cap space.
In doing so, they can create more than $37 million in space, getting the organization well under the cap as they try to add defensive line help and roster depth in free agency. This is a tactic Cleveland likely will be unable to avoid using in the years to come, given how much Watson makes and the structure of his deal.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Release several players to keep Cameron Sutton.
While the Browns will restructure their quarterback's deal to create cap space, the Steelers need to move on from several veterans to generate room on their roster. With Pittsburgh essentially at the salary cap, it can create space by moving on from cornerbacks William Jackson III and Ahkello Witherspoon, along with quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Those three cuts would create a little more than $24 million in space. It has plenty of flexibility if it wants to create more room in targeting linebacker Myles Jack and offensive tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, but it would be a surprise if any of the three players mentioned before returned on their current deals.
I'd like to see the Steelers use those savings to bring back Sutton, their top corner from a year ago. He is a 2017 third-round pick who only broke into the starting lineup for good during his fifth year with the team, but 2022 was his best season. He allowed a 56.7 passer rating as the nearest defender in coverage at cornerback, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranked as the fifth-best mark for corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. The Steelers almost always played sides at corner, so Sutton wasn't chasing around opposing top wideouts, but the 28-year-old more than held his own on the right side of the defense.
Sutton's unique career path makes his market difficult to forecast, but we've seen corners with limited track records as above-average starters get paid in recent seasons. I'd look toward the three-year, $33 million deal D.J. Reed signed with the Jets last offseason as a baseline for Sutton, but I would expect Sutton's new deal to come in closer to $14 million per season, given his level of play a year ago and the rise in the salary cap. With second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett on his rookie contract, the team should be able to afford a new deal for their top corner.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Test the trade market for Brandin Cooks.
The Texans have hired a new coaching staff and are expected to take their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick. They have plenty of cap space and don't have any significant cuts to make. Three of their players have cap hits of more than $10 million, so they have some work to do this offseason. Two of the three are offensive linemen, but the team can wait on extending Laremy Tunsil and probably will let Tytus Howard play out his fifth-year option.
The other is Cooks, a veteran receiver who was frustrated enough by being stuck on the roster after the trade deadline that he missed a game against the Eagles. At 29, he doesn't align with the developmental timeline for this roster and hasn't for some time. The Texans extended his contract last April, but he's owed only $34 million over the final two years of his deal, which is reasonable money for a high-end No. 2 receiver in the current market.
Reasonable money doesn't always translate to significant return via trade, which is one of the reasons Cooks wasn't dealt in November. He is a useful player when healthy -- and it's natural to hope he would be more productive with improved quarterback play -- but he's not the sort of dominant playmaker Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were for the Raiders and Dolphins, respectively. Chase Claypool netted the No. 32 overall pick for the Steelers in their deal with the Bears, but Claypool is much younger than Cooks, even if he hasn't been as productive.
The Bills and Giants are teams that should be interested in Cooks, but if the return is only going to be a late second-round pick or something similar, I'm not sure the Texans will be motivated to move him. Assuming Houston drafts a quarterback, it will want to have as many playmakers in the offense for that passer as possible. Running back Dameon Pierce impressed as a rookie, and the hope is wideout John Metchie III will return after missing his debut season to undergo treatment for leukemia, but trading Cooks would put the Texans in a position in which they would desperately want to add a veteran just like him to their roster. It's worth try to find a suitor for Cooks to see what offers might appear, but the organization also can't afford to trade him for just any return.
Indianapolis Colts
Move on from Matt Ryan.
In case you haven't heard, things didn't go as planned for the Colts in 2022. After acquiring Ryan to be their most recent quarterback solution, the longtime Falcons starter failed to impress behind dismal offensive line play and was benched on two occasions. While I'm not sure many quarterbacks could have thrived given everything that was happening with Indy, he didn't do enough to earn a return engagement in 2023. The Colts seem likely to draft a quarterback with the No. 4 overall pick.
The Colts likely will cut Ryan, a move which will free up $17.2 million on their 2023 cap, though $12 million of his base salary already is guaranteed. The team will be on the hook for that amount if he doesn't sign elsewhere. I have no doubt Ryan could find an opportunity somewhere as a veteran backup for one of the many teams running a version of the Kyle Shanahan offense, but with that $12 million bringing his career earnings north of $300 million, nobody would fault the 2016 MVP if he chose to retire.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Use the franchise tag on Evan Engram.
What else could Jacksonville have asked for from Engram after it signed him to a one-year deal last offseason? He set career-highs in receptions and receiving yards and helped fuel the dramatic comeback victory in the wild-card round over the Chargers with 93 receiving yards and a touchdown. For a team that still has quarterback Trevor Lawrence making peanuts, investing in playmakers is the easiest way to help the franchise improve. Engram, a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end, might even be a bargain given the gap in salaries between the two positions.
All of that is true, but it isn't the whole story. Engram set career-highs in those categories, but it was mostly because he played a full season for just the second time in six years. Otherwise, it was a relatively normal season: He averaged 1.58 yards per route run, which is slightly above his career average of 1.46. He dropped 4% of the passes thrown in his direction. He was targeted at his usual rate and did more after the catch because the Jaguars used him more on short passes; his 491 receiving yards on passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage were nearly 200 more than his prior seasonal high. He isn't a great red zone receiver and doesn't offer anything as a blocker, so he's not a Dallas Goedert-like replacement in Doug Pederson's offense.
With Lawrence still a year away from an extension, though, Engram did enough to justify another look. It would be foolish to commit on a long-term deal, but unless the Jags want to tag offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, he's the only player who would plausibly command their franchise tag. The tag would net Engram $11.4 million after making $9 million a year ago. If he can emerge as a trusted receiver for Lawrence amid competition from receivers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley, he should earn a more significant extension next offseason.
Tennessee Titans
Try to bring back David Long.
You can usually count on one or two Titans draftees to break through and become a Pro Bowl-caliber player each season. While 2022 wasn't an ideal season, that player was Long, who has grown into one of the NFL's best off-ball linebackers. The 2019 sixth-round pick moved into the starting lineup in 2021, but his ranginess in coverage made him essential when on the field last season. He misses his fair share of tackles, but he gets more opportunities for tackles against the run than most other linebackers.
The key phrase for Long, unfortunately, is "on the field." He has missed 12 games with hamstring injuries over the past two seasons, something which led coach Mike Vrabel to refer to him as a "repeat offender" in his end-of-season news conference. One linebacker doesn't produce wins and losses on his own, but it might be telling that the Titans went winless after Long went on injured reserve last season. Over the last two seasons, they are 16-6 with him in the lineup and 3-9 without him.
On a snap-by-snap basis, the defense has been better with Long on the field. Its QBR allowed has declined by six points with him out of the lineup, but that gap has been far more pronounced on third down, where he has been difficult to replace. The Titans have allowed a 25.6 QBR on third downs with him on the field, but that mark has fallen to 44.9 when he's been on the sidelines. The run defense, on the other hand, has been better without him, posting a 66.7% success rate without the linebacker in the mix. That has dropped to 60.3% with him in the lineup.
The Titans already have cleared out cap space by releasing several veterans, including fellow off-ball linebacker Zach Cunningham. Long would seemingly stand to benefit from the vacancy at that position, but he might also be a player who slips through the cracks. Vrabel clearly didn't seem happy with Long's propensity for suffering soft-tissue injuries. The Titans might have no choice but to lose Long if the market bears an offer north of $14 million per season, but I'd like to see them try to bring Long back at anything below that figure.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Create cap space by moving on from disappointing additions.
In case you haven't noticed, the Broncos are in a bit of a quandary. After dealing multiple first-round picks for Russell Wilson and then flailing through a dismal 2022 campaign, they don't have many paths to reshaping their roster. General manager George Paton picked up a first-round pick in a midseason trade for edge rusher Bradley Chubb, but then sent that pick to the Saints to acquire the rights to new coach Sean Payton. Denver doesn't have its first- or second-round picks, although it does have a pair of high third-rounders.
The extension the team gave Wilson before the season helped keep the fallen quarterback's cap hit relatively low in 2023 ($22 million). The Broncos have a little less than $12 million in room with which to work, although they could increase that figure to approximately $30 million by releasing running back Chase Edmonds and guard Graham Glasgow. They will want to address the interior of their offensive line and secondary this offseason, and it would stand to reason that Payton will look toward some of his former pupils in New Orleans.
The other notable cut candidate on the roster might be free agent addition Ronald Darby, a cornerback who has missed 18 games over his two seasons in Denver. Rookie fourth-round pick Damarri Mathis held his own in Darby's absence last season, and the Broncos are set at the other two spots with slot corner K'Waun Williams and third-year star Pat Surtain II. Cutting Darby would free up an additional $9.7 million in space and save the team $9.5 million in cash, which it could put toward a safety to replace Kareem Jackson. Could this be a landing spot for Vonn Bell?
Kansas City Chiefs
Bring back one of the two free agent offensive tackles.
It's good to be the defending Super Bowl champs, especially when you have quarterback Patrick Mahomes under contract until 2031. The Chiefs likely will restructure Mahomes' $34.4 million roster bonus to create cap space and should release edge rusher Frank Clark, whose $30.2 million cap hold is untenable given his non-postseason level of play. They will have some flexibility this offseason.
They'll need that flexibility to help keep Mahomes upright again. Both of the future Hall of Famer's offensive tackles are free agents, and if you remember Super Bowl LV against the Buccaneers, you can recall what happens when the Chiefs roll out replacement-level linemen in front of their superstar quarterback. They rebuilt their line after that game, and with Mahomes' movement playing a huge role, the Eagles failed to sack him in the Super Bowl LVII victory.
The big name in the mix is left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who was acquired from the Ravens before the 2021 season without inking a new contract. The Chiefs used the franchise tag to keep him for 2022 but weren't able to sign him to a new deal. Brown has made four straight Pro Bowls, but he has been closer to good than great as a pass blocker. A second franchise tag would cost the Chiefs $20 million but also leave the team running the risk of losing him for nothing more than a compensatory pick after next season.
On the other side of the line, the Chiefs have one of the players who struggled in Super Bowl LV. Right tackle Andrew Wylie has stuck in that spot over the past couple of seasons after taking over for the injured Lucas Niang in 2021, and he was ever-present in 2022 after signing a one-year deal for $2.6 million last offseason. Stats LLC noted that Wylie allowed eight sacks last season, but some of those are on Mahomes, whose improvisations and penchant for extending plays sometimes make it impossible for his tackles to set and block opposing pass rushers. Wylie is not an upper-echelon tackle, but he's going to get a raise this offseason.
It's an interesting problem for general manager Brett Veach, who traded away top wide receiver Tyreek Hill last offseason and lived to tell the tale. If the Chiefs don't think they can re-sign Brown, they might franchise him for a second time, then attempt to trade him to a team in need of a solution on their quarterback's blind side. If the Jets don't trade the No. 13 overall pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers, I wonder if a Brown deal involving that first-rounder (and picks going back to the Jets with Brown) might make sense. The teams picking in the top quarter of the second round could also be candidates for a Brown trade.
Wylie might be a more sustainable option, even if the market offers him a raise in the range of the three-year, $21 million deal La'el Collins signed last season to join the Bengals. Niang could take back over at right tackle if Wylie leaves, but Kansas City will need to prioritize adding another tackle this offseason.
Las Vegas Raiders
Franchise tag Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders have a pressing decision at quarterback after cutting Derek Carr, but that's a move they likely will resolve in free agency or the draft. Before then, they'll have to make a decision about their star running back. Jacobs seemingly was on his way out of town after the team declined his fifth-year option and played him with backups early during the preseason, but the 2019 first-round pick emerged as an every-down back during Las Vegas' topsy-turvy 2022.
Jacobs had been an ordinary back for most of his first three seasons, but something clicked last season. After generating just 43 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) and coming nine first downs below expectation (FDOE) across 490 carries between 2019 and 2021, he generated 174 RYOE and four FDOE on 340 carries a year ago. He gained 10 or more RYOE 10 times after doing so just 15 times across the three prior seasons combined. He also had his biggest season in the passing game, racking up a career-high 400 yards through the air, including a 43-yard catch on a pick play to help set up a game-tying field goal late in Week 11 against the Broncos.
Should the Raiders negotiate a long-term deal with Jacobs? I wouldn't blame the organization for locking up homegrown talent, especially given how futile its top-100 selections were during the Jon Gruden era. He is still only 25, and while it's tough to count on any back to stay healthy for 340 carries on a year-to-year basis, we do occasionally see backs break through at this point of their career and continue to play at a high level for several seasons to come, with Derrick Henry and Marshawn Lynch as examples.
Pricing out that deal might be tough, if only because the Raiders have a team-friendly fallback option with the franchise tag. General manager Dave Ziegler & Co. could pay Jacobs $10.1 million in 2023 and $12.1 million in 2024 with two franchise tags, which is only a little more than what he might expect to get as the guaranteed money on a multi-year deal.
The Packers essentially gave Aaron Jones two franchise tags when they brought back their lead rusher in 2021, and a similar sort of deal would make sense for Jacobs. A four-year, $56 million contract with $24 million guaranteed in the first two seasons is where I'd expect the two parties to compromise. To get there, the Raiders might need to first use the franchise tag to keep him off the open market.
Los Angeles Chargers
Extend Justin Herbert's contract.
The Chargers understandably have made no bones about doing whatever they can to accommodate their franchise quarterback. Since drafting Herbert in 2020, they have used consecutive first-round picks on offensive linemen, retained wideout Mike Williams and signed top-of-the-market center Corey Linsley. With the offense stalling at times over the past couple seasons and fading badly in the second half of the season-ending loss to the Jaguars, the Chargers fired coordinator Joe Lombardi and went for a highly regarded replacement in Kellen Moore, who came over from Dallas.
Now, after three seasons, the next thing the Chargers can do for their franchise quarterback is pay him like one. Herbert is eligible for an extension, and the team obviously will be picking up his fifth-year option for 2024. He hasn't yet had that All-Pro season just about everybody believes is waiting in his future, but L.A. isn't getting out of the Herbert business anytime soon.
With Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts also coming due for extensions this offseason, the Chargers should do what they can to make Herbert's extension be the first of the three. None of these quarterbacks is going to offer their teams a discount (nor should they), but history tells us that whomever signs their signal-caller first will get the best price.
The number for the Chargers is $51 million per season. After his third year in the league, Kyler Murray signed a five-year, $230.5-million extension with the Cardinals, which was $46.1 million per year on a $202.8 million cap. With the cap rising to $224.8 million this season, a similar deal for Herbert would cost $51.1 million per season. Aaron Rodgers became the first to broach $50 million per season on his extension with the Packers, but that was for an extension at the end of his career. Herbert, Burrow and Hurts should all top $50 million per season on their post-rookie extensions.
Could the Chargers get the deal done in advance by fully guaranteeing $255 million for Herbert? Maybe. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don't have fully guaranteed deals, but the structure of their contracts all but ensure they'll be able to collect significant salaries for years to come, given that their guarantees lock in one year in advance of each passing season. Murray has a less expansive and expensive version of those deals, with year-ahead guarantees that the Cardinals could grit their teeth and pay after 2025.
Including the $33.7 million Herbert already IS expected to earn over the next two seasons, here's how the Chargers could structure a five-year, $251 million extension with $62 million due in Year 1 and $120 million over years 1 through 3 while simultaneously keeping Herbert's cap hits reasonable for the next several seasons:
With Herbert likely earning a significant raise, his responsibilities will grow. Burrow and Hurts, who will also get paid this offseason, already have Super Bowl appearances on their résumés. Herbert hasn't even won a playoff game, and his only appearance resulted in a dramatic collapse. I wouldn't pin that game on him -- and I'd have no qualms about paying him this sort of deal -- but most of the conversations about him during his career have been about what the young quarterback is capable of doing. Once he gets this sort of deal, though, the future is now.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Resolve the running back situation.
After years of having a clearly defined one-two punch, the Cowboys can go in several different directions at running back. Ezekiel Elliott's status is in question after he has battled injuries the past two seasons, while Tony Pollard, an unrestricted free agent, fractured his left fibula in Dallas' playoff loss to San Francisco. Both players could be back in 2023, or the team could start over.
Let's start with Elliott, who was a franchise cornerstone before signing a six-year, $90 million extension before the 2019 season. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 101.2 rushing yards per game before the extension, but he has been limited to 4.2 yards per carry and 66.9 yards per game afterward.
Over that four-year span, per NFL Next Gen Stats, Elliott's 1,013 carries have generated just 54 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), suggesting that he could be ably replaced by a league-average back. (Pollard's 510 carries have generated a whopping 446 RYOE over that same stretch.) Elliott has a popular reputation as a valuable short-yardage back, but he has generated five fewer first downs over expectation than an average back would have gained in the same situations.
The Cowboys owe Elliott nearly $11 million in 2023 as part of a $16.7 million cap hit. What is particularly notable for the team is how it handled things last offseason, when Elliott struggled through a disappointing 2021. Dallas usually restructures the contracts of its star players every year to create short-term cap space, albeit at the risk of eating more dead money when it moves on from those veterans. The Cowboys conspicuously declined to restructure the deals of Elliott and offensive tackle Tyron Smith last spring, suggesting the organization was preparing to move on from both players this offseason.
Designating Elliott as a post-June 1 release would free up $10.9 million in cap space for the Cowboys, who are projected to be $7.6 million over the cap for 2023. Releasing Smith under the same designation would free up another $13.6 million. Both moves seem likely unless either player is willing to take a pay cut.
Elliott is a great pass protector and might still be something close to an average veteran back, but that skill set would typically price out in the $4 million range in free agency, which would be a massive drop from his current deal. He might be subject to the "hometown premium," where an offer that represents market value would be insulting from a team that had been paying a player much more for years.
Pollard's situation is suddenly much trickier after his injury, which also required surgery to repair ligaments from a high ankle sprain. It's unclear whether he will be ready to play by the start of training camp, which could depress his value on the open market. I projected Pollard to land a deal in the ballpark of three years and $36 million if he got to free agency. And in hindsight, the Cowboys might have planned to use the $10.1 million franchise tag to keep him for 2023.
Now, with the ankle complicating Pollard's availability, the 25-year-old might be in position to land only a one-year deal for $6 million or so in free agency, which could cause the Cowboys to let him hit the open market and see if he lands a more significant offer. The easiest solution for the team would be to move on from Elliott, franchise Pollard and add a veteran back who can play early in the season while Pollard gets up to speed, but the Cowboys don't do easy well.
New York Giants
Re-sign Saquon Barkley.
I've written about how the Giants find themselves in a similar situation to the one the Titans faced after their unexpected playoff run in 2019. Like those Titans, the Giants enjoyed an excellent season from their running back and a surprising breakout performance from their quarterback, just as both players were about to hit free agency. Keeping them both without making a mistake was going to be a challenge.
Then-Titans general manager Jon Robinson elected to lock down his quarterback first. He gave Ryan Tannehill a contract that guaranteed the signal-caller would be on the Titans roster for three seasons. Signing that deal allowed Robinson to use the franchise tag on Derrick Henry the next day before he inked Henry to a long-term contract extension later in the summer.
In these situations, agents aren't naive. Tannehill's representation knew the Titans needed to get a deal done quickly to save the franchise tag for Henry, and vice versa. Most quarterbacks with a one-year track record of playing at a high level -- like Tannehill had in Tennessee -- would have had to settle for one or two years of guaranteed salaries on their new deals. Tannehill's leverage allowed him to land three, something Titans fans didn't love after a disappointing end to the 2022 season.
The Giants face that same issue with Barkley and Daniel Jones, who are both free agents in March. Barkley's return to health coincided with his best season since 2018, while Jones flourished in a quick passing attack under new coach Brian Daboll. Ideally, general manager Joe Schoen would keep both around for 2023, if not beyond. The Giants can use the franchise tag to keep one, but the other one will either be signed to a long-term deal or hit free agency.
The case is stronger for using the franchise tag on Jones. The number for quarterbacks is a whopping $32.4 million as opposed to $10.1 million for running backs, but Jones has a much shorter track record of competent performance. This is the same organization that (understandably) turned down a fifth-year option last spring that guaranteed Jones $22.4 million for the 2023 season.
Jones deserves another chance to prove that he can build on an impressive 2022, but do the Giants really want to commit two or even three guaranteed years to a player who was on his way out of the organization as recently as last summer? We've seen teams with high-paid, low-ceiling quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz either move on from their starter or struggle to build a roster around them. Would paying Jones put New York in that group?
Barkley's track record of health is a concern, but making a mistake with a long-term deal for a running back is much easier to swallow than making that same mistake with a quarterback, if only because the contracts are much smaller. There are also more teams that simply aren't willing to pay veteran backs significant money, noting that those deals rarely offer a good return value.
After the season-ending loss to the Eagles, Barkley admitted he wasn't going to attempt to reset the top of the running back market, which is the four-year, $64-million deal inked by Christian McCaffrey in 2020 with Carolina. There's a middle ground between the franchise tag and McCaffrey's average value of $16 million per season that would make sense for both sides.
Splitting the difference would come in at four years and $52 million for Barkley, who was one of the league's most explosive players for stretches in 2022. A deal with $28 million or so guaranteed over the first two years would reward Barkley for his return to form and still protect the Giants beyond 2024 if Barkley isn't able to stay healthy. It would also allow the team to franchise Jones.
Philadelphia Eagles
Convince Jason Kelce to return for another season.
It will be a year of transition for the NFC champs, who have a number of key free agents on the defense. Much of their defensive line rotation is out of contract, including Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn. Cornerback James Bradberry, who produced an elite season before his penalty in the Super Bowl, will need to be re-signed. Fellow starters T.J. Edwards and Marcus Epps are also unrestricted. General manager Howie Roseman will have his work cut out.
On offense, though, the most important thing will be convincing an All-Pro to return. Jason might not have won the Super Bowl battle against his brother Travis, but the 35-year-old center delivered a sterling season as the pivot for the Philadelphia rushing attack. Kelce was one of the key players in Jalen Hurts' big game on the ground against Kansas City, pulling on the Eagles' power schemes for a number of key plays.
Kelce is an unrestricted free agent, and after flirting with retirement in the past, there's a chance the future Hall of Famer doesn't return for another season. The Eagles used a second-round pick last year on Cam Jurgens, who Kelce helped them scout before the draft as a possible replacement, but he played only 35 offensive snaps as a rookie. Jurgens might turn out to be the next Kelce, but the Eagles should do what it takes to convince the current one to stick around.
Washington Commanders
Cut Carson Wentz.
One of the easiest opening moves of the offseason for any club will be Washington moving on from Wentz, whose $26.2 million compensation for 2023 is unguaranteed. The Commanders would free up the same amount of salary-cap space by releasing the quarterback, which would get them to north of $33 million in room. Update: The Commanders cut Wentz on Monday, Feb. 27.
Wentz's days as a guaranteed Week 1 starter are surely numbered after he flamed out in consecutive seasons with the Eagles, Colts and Commanders. He has struggled to stay healthy, posting a 47.9 QBR over the past three seasons. The only qualifying passers with a worse QBR since 2020 are Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. He also has developed a reputation in the league as being stubbornly resistant to coaching and self-evaluation.
Quarterbacks drafted in the top five picks usually get chance after chance to stick around the league as backups and borderline starters, so if Wentz wants to keep playing, he'll have opportunities. Having earned nearly $130 million over his career, though, is he really going to settle for a one-year, $5 million deal? I wonder whether we've seen the last of the 30-year-old quarterback, which would be shocking for a player who was regarded by many as an upper-echelon passer as recently as 2020.
The only quarterback on Washington's 2023 roster is 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell, who impressed in the season-ending win over the Cowboys. Taylor Heinicke will be a free agent and should earn a raise from the $2.9 million he earned last year, although coach Ron Rivera has seemed to want to replace Heinicke over the past couple of offseasons. Howell likely will compete with a player from outside the organization for the starting role.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Re-sign Darnell Mooney.
The most important decision for the Bears this offseason is about what to do with the No. 1 overall pick and determining whether to use it on a quarterback, a player at a different position or trading down for additional selections. That move shouldn't come until after the NFL combine next month, when potential trade candidates will have a better idea of how they feel about this quarterback class and how much they might be willing to deal to move up.
With nearly $100 million in cap space, the Bears don't need to create any room to maneuver, though they might opt to do so by releasing veteran safety Eddie Jackson. Instead, they could start solidifying their infrastructure around their quarterback, whether that ends up being Justin Fields or one of the passers in this draft class. General manager Ryan Poles traded for wideout Chase Claypool in November, but Claypool's first few months with the Bears were marred by injury.
Poles could kick off the offseason by locking up Mooney, the team's best wide receiver. Mooney has seen a quarterback shop of horrors over his first three seasons, but he still managed to generate 1.90 yards per route run in 2022, just ahead of D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Mike Evans. He is at 1.65 yards per route run over his career, virtually identical to the figure posted by Claypool, but Claypool has been on the decline after an impressive rookie season in 2020.
Mooney has gotten better, albeit in an offense in which the Bears ran the ball at the league's fourth-highest rate in neutral situations. With Mooney sidelined for most of the final five games of the season via injury, he finished with just 40 catches for 432 yards and two scores. The 25-year-old was better on a per-route and per-target basis, but this wasn't exactly a career season, either.
Kirk's four-year, $72 million extension is credited for pushing forward the wideout market, but I don't think his deal was the only one in the mix. Mike Williams, a differently sized deep threat for the Chargers, inked a three-year, $60-million pact just before free agency last year, while Moore signed a three-year, $61.8 million deal with the Panthers. With the cap rising, a Mooney extension likely would land at three years in that $60 million ballpark, even if he doesn't have the timing of Williams or the track record of Moore.
Detroit Lions
Clear out cap space.
Despite being the NFL's youngest team by snap-weighted age in 2022, the Lions don't have as much cap space as you might expect. With quarterback Jared Goff on the books for nearly $31 million next season, they have only $15.8 million in room. General manager Brad Holmes & Co. likely will want more space to work with as they try to add pieces to a defense that cost them a playoff spot.
With that in mind, the Lions likely will be looking to create cap space by moving on from a handful of veterans. The line starts with defensive tackle Michael Brockers, the longtime Rams standout who lost his role in the lineup and played just 12 defensive snaps after Week 5. Whether Brockers is cut or chooses to retire, Detroit will free up $10 million in room by releasing the 32-year-old.
Former Eagles utility lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai was signed by the prior Lions regime to start at tackle, but he spent his time in Detroit at guard and never impressed. Vaitai missed all of 2022 after undergoing back surgery, and while the Lions need someone to play right guard, it probably won't be Vaitai. Designating him as a post-June 1 release would generate about $9.5 million in savings.
The third veteran to get released might be edge rusher Romeo Okwara, who is entering the final year of the three-year, $37 million extension he signed in 2021. He has played just nine games over the past two seasons around a torn Achilles suffered in October 2021, and the Lions have Aidan Hutchinson and Charles Harris on the edge. Okwara is due $11 million in 2023, a figure he wouldn't hit on the open market. A pay cut could make sense here, but moving on from him would free up an additional $7.5 million in space.
Green Bay Packers
Resolve the quarterback situation.
Before the Super Bowl, I covered the time frame for when the Packers will need to make their decisions about Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers, and that's the first thing they need to resolve as they figure out their offseason. Rodgers hasn't committed to playing in 2023 -- in Green Bay or elsewhere. The team will need to make the call by May on whether to exercise Love's fifth-year option for the 2024 season, or it could trade him.
While the Packers could wait until that fifth-year option deadline in May, there's no sense in letting other teams fill their quarterback openings before they make their decisions.
Minnesota Vikings
Create cap space.
The hard work is just beginning for the Vikings, who are $21 million over the 2023 salary cap. That figure doesn't include the massive new deal coming for star wideout Justin Jefferson, whose $4.2 million cap hit for next season looks quaint in comparison to what's to come. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will surely structure Jefferson's deal to keep the Year 1 cap hit low with bonuses, but Jefferson is about to become the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history.
The $21 million figure also doesn't include new deals for any of Minnesota's free agents. It is likely to let cornerback Chandon Sullivan and tight end Irv Smith leave, but it could look to re-sign defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, corner Patrick Peterson, center Garrett Bradbury and running back Alexander Mattison, each of whom should have suitors in free agency. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores built his defenses in Miami around deep secondaries, but the Vikings already were weak in the back end and would get even weaker if Peterson left.
To get there, the Vikings will need to make some tough choices on franchise icons. Wideout Adam Thielen has the second-largest cap hit on the roster at $19.1 million, and the 32-year-old failed to top 75 receiving yards in a single game in 2022. Designating Thielen as a post-June 1 release would free up $13.4 million in much-needed room, although they could instead ask him to take a pay cut from the $13.3 million he's due. They also could free up $7.9 million by releasing running back Dalvin Cook, perhaps while using some of that money to re-sign Mattison.
On defense, the Vikings will take a close look at two stalwarts: linebacker Eric Kendricks and safety Harrison Smith. Both are on the wrong side of 30, although the 34-year-old Smith did manage to pick off five passes this season. Kendricks is three years younger, but he plays a less valuable position and allowed a passer rating north of 100 in coverage for the second consecutive campaign. Releasing Kendricks would free up $9.5 million, while Smith would create another $15 million in space as a post-June 1 release.
The Vikings seemed to land a much-needed secondary pass-rusher when they added Za'Darius Smith last year, as he racked up 9.5 sacks over his first nine games. From that point forward, though, he had only a half-sack over his ensuing seven contests. Smith's knee was a concern for teams in free agency and led the Ravens to back out of a move for their former player last March, and the Vikings can free up $13.7 million by cutting him.
There's also the elephant in the room: What will the Vikings do with Kirk Cousins? They owe the 34-year-old quarterback $30 million next season as part of a $36.3 million cap hit in what would be the final year of Cousins' most recent contract. They could free up that $30 million by trading Cousins, but he has a no-trade clause.
Adofo-Mensah could create cap space by extending Cousins, as he did before the 2022 season, but doing so only extends the passer's tenure with the team and delays the inevitable. The Vikings seem likely to be in the market for a young quarterback as early as this offseason. While restructuring Cousins' deal would free up room, it's probably time to leave that tactic in the past, even if it costs them some of the players above.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Franchise tag Kaleb McGary and work on a long-term deal.
McGary might be the offensive line version of the Daniel Jones story. Drafted in the first round in 2019 by a since-departed front office, McGary had struggled through three messy seasons to begin his career. The Falcons last May declined McGary's fifth-year option for the 2023 season, and it looked like he was on his way out of the organization after last season.
Instead, McGary had his best season. He allowed just 3.5 sacks in an offense that for most of the season featured Marcus Mariota, who might be the league's most sack-prone quarterback. McGary played every snap for one of the NFL's most run-heavy offenses, and the Falcons averaged 5.9 yards per play on runs to the right side, the fourth-best mark in the league.
To be fair, McGary does play alongside one of the best right guards in fellow 2019 first-round pick Chris Lindstrom, who had his fifth-year option picked up and might also receive an extension this offseason. Like Jones, McGary has only one season at his current level of play, so there's always going to be concerns that 2022 was a small-sample blip as opposed to a new level of play.
The perennially cap-strapped Falcons are finally in better shape this offseason and have more than $56 million in room with which to work, so they can afford a new deal for McGary. Unlike Jones and the Giants, though, the $18.2 million franchise tag would be an overpay for anything short of a superstar right tackle. A four-year deal in the $50 million range would suit both parties here.
Carolina Panthers
Sign Brian Burns to an extension.
In October, the Rams reportedly offered the Panthers two first-round picks in a package to acquire Burns. When Carolina said no, there might not have been anybody cheering louder than the pass-rusher's agents. What could be better leverage for a star player than his team turning down a trade offer with two first-round picks attached? L.A.'s offer suggests it thought he was one of the NFL's best young players. The Panthers' turning it down confirms it was right.
Now, with Burns entering his fifth-year option, he's in position to land a massive new deal. Burns' camp will likely point toward the four-year, $112 million extension T.J. Watt signed before his fifth season with the Steelers, which is the top of the edge rusher market at $28 million per season. General manager Scott Fitterer might instead lean toward the five-year, $110 million deal Bradley Chubb inked with the Dolphins after he was acquired from the Broncos in November, which is good for $22 million per year.
Burns' deal could come in closer to the former than the latter for two reasons. One is that Chubb was traded for only a single first-round pick, albeit a year closer to free agency. While Watt's résumé was more impressive than Burns' after four seasons, Watt's deal also came when the cap was south of $200 million. Now, with the cap up to $224.8 million, his deal could come close to matching Watt's, even if he takes up a smaller percentage of the cap. A four-year extension for Burns, who is coming off a 12½-sack season, should come in around $100 million.
New Orleans Saints
Sign Derek Carr.
On his way out of Las Vegas, Carr had few reasons to do his former employers a favor, and he chose not to. With a no-trade clause, the quarterback had the right to approve any deal that also would have netted the Raiders draft compensation. As the Feb. 15 deadline for Carr's contract guarantees came close to triggering, he told the team he wouldn't accept a trade, forcing his release and hitting the market a month earlier than other free agents.
The only reason Carr would have accepted a trade would have been to retain his contract, which guaranteed him $33 million in 2023 and at least $7.5 million (of $42 million overall) in 2024. We'll find out what happens when he signs his next deal, but in turning down a trade, he either thought he could get similar money or more guarantees in free agency or wanted to take a pay cut to save his new team the midround draft pick they would have needed to send Las Vegas. It could also be spite, but money usually talks here.
For the Saints, who need all the draft capital they can get, signing Carr would align with their philosophy of trying to win now around their veteran core. (My thoughts on that philosophy have been covered elsewhere.) The cap-strapped Saints can't afford a $34.9 million cap hit for Carr in 2023, but had they traded for him, they were going to restructure his deal to create short-term cap space by converting his base salary into a bonus and adding voidable years to the end of the deal. If they sign him, they can structure a new deal from scratch for short-term cap benefits.
Carr is probably the best-case scenario for New Orleans given its options. The organization is not in position to trade up for one of the quarterbacks in this draft class, even after getting back a first-round pick from the Broncos for the rights to coach Sean Payton. The Saints shouldn't be in the market for an Aaron Rodgers trade given his salary and the draft picks required to make that deal. Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are likely to be retained by their current teams. Would you rather have Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo? I could understand New Orleans preferring the former.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Explore trading Chris Godwin.
The Bucs aren't in a great situation at the moment. They are $55.7 million over the 2023 salary cap, in part because they owe $35.1 million in dead money after the retirement of Tom Brady. Like their divisional brethren in New Orleans, Tampa will have to restructure most of its top veterans' deals to create much-needed cap room. The front office likely isn't going to complain after the Bucs won a Super Bowl in 2020, but this team is going to struggle to field a better team than the one it ran out in 2022.
The cap situation could cost the Bucs defensive starters such as franchise legend Lavonte David and breakout cornerback Jamel Dean, who is coming off his best season. General manager Jason Licht will need to make some tough choices, especially if he wants to add a veteran quarterback to replace Brady.
One way to create cap space and improve the weaker spots on the roster would be to trade from a position of strength. Tampa's strongest position is at wide receiver. Mike Evans is 30 and entering the final year of his deal, but repeated restructures will prevent the Buccaneers from realizing significant cost savings if they were to deal him. They would create only $2.3 million in space by trading him before June 1, and while they could free up an additional $12.2 million by trading Evans afterward, this exercise is about what the Bucs can do at the beginning of the offseason.
Trading Godwin, on the other hand, is a different story. Parting ways with the 27-year-old would free up nearly $9 million in cap room and take a significant earner off the payroll in 2023 and 2024. Godwin wasn't as effective after returning from a torn ACL last season, and while he should still be in the prime of his career, Tampa should be able to get by with Evans -- who would likely end up getting a new deal out of the equation -- and Russell Gage at wideout.
The deal would also net the Bucs some useful draft capital. I'm not sure they could expect to land a Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams-sized haul, but a late-first-round pick would hardly be out of the question. The Giants sit at No. 25 and don't have a significant receiver on the roster for quarterback Daniel Jones. Would trading for Godwin accelerate their offense? I wouldn't advocate trading Godwin for pennies on the dollar, but Licht should be willing to take calls on him.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Re-sign Zach Allen.
There's a lot for new general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon to do. Three of the Cardinals' starting offensive linemen and four of the backups are set to hit free agency, while center Rodney Hudson is expected to retire. Quarterback Kyler Murray and tight end Zach Ertz both finished 2022 with torn ACLs, and Murray will not be ready for the start of the 2023 season. Defensive end J.J. Watt retired, and Byron Murphy, their top cornerback, is an unrestricted free agent.
The Cardinals have just $13.5 million in cap space before signing any of their free agents, so it's not as if they can go wild on the open market to solve their problems. One thing they should do, though, is retain one of their best defensive players. Allen enjoyed the best season of his career in 2022, racking up 5.5 sacks and 20 knockdowns despite missing four games with injuries. He moved all around the defensive line, and he's going to be a valuable contributor on teams that really use their linemen on lots of twists and games up front.
Allen is not going to get superstar money, but he's a player several teams will look at as an underrated contributor and a compelling option on the interior. It wouldn't be a surprise if his three-year deal landed somewhere around $36 million. At that price, even given their issues elsewhere, the Cardinals should pounce.
Los Angeles Rams
Bring back Baker Mayfield.
The Rams are coming off a lost season, as they followed their Super Bowl victory with an injury-riddled 5-12 campaign. Coach Sean McVay weighed retirement before agreeing to return, while quarterback Matthew Stafford missed time with various injuries, most notably a spinal cord contusion. Stafford has said he expects to return to action, but the 35-year-old also is battling an elbow issue that nagged him through the past two seasons. At the very least, the Rams have to prepare for the possibility Stafford will miss time again.
Enter Mayfield, who was claimed off waivers in December and immediately led the Rams to a victory over the Raiders. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick didn't post wildly impressive numbers in his five starts, but he was playing with backups at wide receiver and along the offensive line. He had barely learned the offense by the end of the season.
Mayfield was a disaster with the Browns in 2021 and in his brief stint with the Panthers last season, so a long-term starting opportunity won't be in the cards this offseason. He likely is looking at an opportunity to serve as a bridge starter ahead of a rookie or a high-end backup. Given Stafford's health, staying put in Los Angeles might be one of his best chances to see significant playing time. A one-year deal in the $4-5 million range would be reasonable.
San Francisco 49ers
Re-sign Mike McGlinchey.
McGlinchey's career has been a lesson in expectations. Drafted with the No. 9 overall pick in 2018, he was taken ahead of 11 different players who have since made the Pro Bowl, including fellow right tackles Brian O'Neill and Orlando Brown. McGlinchey seemed likely to be the heir apparent to longtime 49ers tackle Joe Staley, but after starting his career on the right side, he stuck there through the tenures of Staley and superstar acquisition Trent Williams.
McGlinchey is a solid, above-average right tackle who isn't going to dominate the player across from him most weeks. Viewed through the lens of a top-10 pick, that's a disappointment. Looking at him as a football player on a week-to-week basis, though, he's a useful part of the team. With San Francisco turning over the interior of its line last offseason and starting three players all season who had a combined three career starts before 2022, his steadiness was valuable.
On a team with significant salaries at running back, tight end, left tackle and wide receiver, McGlinchey might be too expensive to retain. With the 49ers saving money on the interior of their line and moving forward with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy as their quarterbacks, though, general manager John Lynch should be able to afford a new deal to keep him. McGlinchey probably can't expect to get a deal in line with those of top-flight right tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Taylor Moton, but a four-year, $56 million deal might be enough to keep him.
Seattle Seahawks
Bring back Geno Smith.
I wrote in January about Smith's next move. The Seahawks can franchise the quarterback for $32.4 million, sign him to an extension or let him hit free agency before deciding whether to retain him after his breakout season.
While the Seahawks might get the best possible deal if they choose to let Smith test the market, there's little reason for them to do that after what the 32-year-old just accomplished. After beating Drew Lock for the job during training camp, he led the league in adjusted completion percentage (75.2%). Seattle might choose to use the No. 5 overall pick on a passer, but even if it does, Smith would make sense as a high-end bridge to begin the season.
Smith's situation will be compared to Daniel Jones', but there are key differences. One is that Jones is seven years younger, which makes it more likely he will continue to develop in the years to come. At the same time, Smith was better than Jones in 2022, especially as a pocket passer. Jones added more value with his legs, but Smith was better as a more traditional quarterback.
Most importantly in terms of leverage, Jones benefits from Saquon Barkley's free agency, as only one player per team can get the franchise tag. While the Seahawks might want to retain free agents such as linebacker Cody Barton, running back Rashaad Penny and defensive tackle Poona Ford, none would justify a franchise tag. The tag seems like a more realistic threat for Smith, which counterintuitively might make it easier to do a two-year deal before the deadline on March 7.