It's good business to break out in a contract year. It's even better business to break out for a team that goes on a long NFL playoff run. Ask the guys on the 2021 Rams. Defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day parlayed a great half-season to a new deal with the Chargers. Cornerback Darious Williams left for an expensive contract with the Jaguars. Veteran pass-rusher Von Miller turned a dominant postseason into a six-year, $120 million pact with the Bills. Wideout Odell Beckham Jr, cut by the Browns earlier in the season, was two quarters away from a significant new deal before tearing his ACL during Super Bowl LVI.
There are still three more rounds of the postseason ahead of us, but I wanted to take a look at the players who have improved their stock most dramatically in advance of a likely new deal this offseason. I'll exclusively be looking at players on the 14 playoff teams, including the ones that were eliminated during the wild-card round.
The players you see below generally are going to be pending free agents, young players on rookie deals who are about to become eligible for extensions and veterans entering the final year of their current deals. Not every one of them will land new deals before the 2023 season, but many should ink contracts, either with their existing team or a new one.
I'm leaving off some players whom you might figure as possible candidates. They include:
Players who were already playing at a superstar level. As an example, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow already was going to get paid top-tier quarterback money after what he did a year ago, and nothing changed this season. The same holds for Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson and Bengals safety Jessie Bates at their respective positions.
Players who aren't eligible for a new deal in 2023. Rookie 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is on a dramatically different financial track than the league's other seventh-round picks from last April's draft, but even if he continues to amaze, the league's collective bargaining agreement prevents San Francisco from extending his contract until the end of the 2024 season.
Players who aren't about to get new contracts. Wideout Tyreek Hill had an incredible season after arriving in Miami, but he just signed a four-year, $120 million extension last spring. He's still a couple of years from realistically being in position to capitalize on a great season with a new deal.
Players who are dealing with injuries, putting their 2023 seasons in jeopardy. This fits for Bengals corner Chidobe Awuzie and Cowboys offensive tackle Terence Steele, but the most obvious example is Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose career season was interrupted by at least two concussions. It's unclear whether any of these guys will be ready for the start of next season, so while they all would have likely signed lucrative new deals if they had finished the season healthy, their future is up in the air.
Even with those constraints, there are still 20 players to break down, including how they excelled and what their market will look like this spring. Some proved themselves to be franchise cornerstones, while others might have priced themselves onto another roster. We'll group these players by team, hitting all 14 that made the playoffs. Let's start with one of the most fascinating performances of the season, from a player who is in the middle of his best stretch in the NFL:
Jump to a team's rep:
BAL | BUF | CIN | DAL
JAX | KC | LAC | MIA | MIN
NYG | PHI | SEA | SF | TB
Daniel Jones, QB, Giants
Jones' impressive run over the last month of the season continued with an excellent performance against the Vikings during wild-card weekend. He has posted a league-best 77.8 QBR since Week 14, including a 96.8 QBR in the playoff-clinching win over the Colts in Week 17, which is the single-best game by a quarterback this season. QBR includes the value a player adds with his legs, and Jones has been a difference-maker as a scrambler.
While Jones always has been a capable runner, this unquestionably has been his best season as a passer. With new coach Brian Daboll reducing his downfield throwing responsibilities and building an offense that throws the shortest average pass of any team, his completion percentage has spiked from a career average of 62.8% before 2022 to 67.2% this season. His adjusted completion percentage, which doesn't include drops and spikes and adjusts for the depth of pass, ranks fifth in the league.
The significant difference between the Jones of old and the guy we've seen this season comes with protecting the football. His interception rate had dropped across each of his first three seasons, but he threw just five picks in 16 games and posted a league-best interception rate of 1.1% in 2022. He also has dropped from averaging nearly a fumble per game across his first three seasons to coughing up just six this season.
Jones isn't perfect -- he still takes too many sacks, and the ceiling for the offense remains relatively low while he dinks-and-dunks his way down the field -- but he has taken major strides during this breakout season. Daboll & Co. undoubtedly are thrilled, but they must also be surprised, given that in April, the organization declined Jones' $22.4 million fifth-year option for 2024.
Now, while the Giants are enjoying their first playoff win since Super Bowl XLVI, general manager Joe Schoen and the rest of the front office know a complicated contract situation awaits them. Jones has played well enough to ask for more than that $22.4 million figure on a new deal. At 25, his best football should still be ahead of him, and there could be a meaningful market for him in free agency if the Giants let him get there.
One option would be to use the franchise tag, which would keep him around for another season at a projected cost of $32.5 million while asking him to prove he can play this way for another season. The only issue there is that the Giants have another first-round pick coming due for a new deal ...
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
Barkley has returned to the form Giants fans had hoped to see after former general manager Dave Gettleman used the No. 2 overall pick in 2018 to draft him. He doesn't have all of the agility back from that rookie season after he tore his ACL, but he still showed off plenty of explosiveness during a Pro Bowl year. The 25-year-old ranked sixth among all backs with 173 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He still lacks consistency, given a below-average success rate, but you saw his big-play ability on display in the win over the Vikings.
Reports in November suggested Barkley wanted to become one of the league's highest-paid backs, if not the highest. In terms of average annual salary, the top of the market at running back is still Christian McCaffrey's deal, who got $16 million per season and just under $39.2 million in cash over years one to three when he signed an extension with Carolina in 2020.
If the Giants don't need the franchise tag for Jones, they will hold plenty of leverage in a potential negotiation with Barkley. Back-to-back franchise tags would cost them a total of $22.2 million over the next two years before they'd need to make a final decision about his long-term future. In a league in which significant second contracts for running backs rarely prove fruitful and with a player who had seen each of his prior three seasons partially or mostly ruined by injuries, he might not have the sort of position-altering free agency market he wants.
And yet, at the same time, it's difficult to imagine the Giants remaining as effective on offense in 2023 without him. Schoen spent his time before the Giants in the front offices of the Dolphins and Bills, both of which preferred to go with cheaper options at running back. Neither of those franchises, however, had a ball carrier as imposing or spectacular as Barkley can be at his best.
This situation is reminiscent of the one the Titans faced after the 2019 season when both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry were about to become unrestricted free agents. Then-Titans general manager Jon Robinson kept them both, but he had to give Tannehill three seasons of practical guarantees to get the quarterback's deal done before the franchise tag deadline. Tennessee franchised Henry and later got Henry's deal done, too, but I'm not sure fans of the team were thrilled with keeping Tannehill for this season after a frustrating 2021 campaign.
Henry had another All-Pro-caliber season in 2020, but his efficiency has declined amid a foot injury between 2021 and 2022. The Titans kept both their guys and even nabbed a 1-seed in the AFC a year ago, but they haven't won a playoff game since that 2019 season. Schoen and the Giants will undoubtedly want another go-around with their starting quarterback and running back, but keeping them around doesn't guarantee future success, either.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
Let's talk about a second contract for a running back that worked out handsomely for the team involved. Ekeler inked a four-year, $24.5 million extension with L.A. before the 2020 season, and he emerged as one of the league's most productive playmakers once the team moved on from Melvin Gordon. Ekeler has led the league in touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, an impressive feat for a back whose 5-foot-10 frame doesn't typically evoke the short-yardage bruisers of the past.
In one of the league's most pass-friendly attacks, Ekeler is an essential member of the passing game. The 27-year-old caught 107 passes this season, making him just the sixth back in NFL history to top the century mark. He averages an impressive 1.84 yards per route run, in line with stars at other positions such as George Kittle and Chris Godwin. With him emerging as an efficient, explosive runner, the Chargers have to feel like they're getting a bargain.
It's time for that bargain to come to an end. Ekeler will make $5.8 million in 2023, the final year of his deal. It wouldn't be unreasonable for him to ask for a McCaffrey-sized contract, which would nearly triple his average annual salary. He'll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.
Would the Chargers do that sort of contract? They offered Gordon a contract in the range of $11 million per year in 2019 before he declined, a move that benefited the organization in hindsight. The bigger concern might be that they have an expensive room of wide receivers with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and are about to give quarterback Justin Herbert a raise to something north of $40 million per season.
Allen is 30 and has two years left on his current deal. Cutting the veteran would free up nearly $15 million in cap purposes. My guess is the Chargers will keep either Allen or Ekeler around for a third contract and move on from the other, although they might not make that decision until after next season.
Bryce Callahan, CB, Chargers
Callahan is one of the league's best slot cornerbacks when healthy, and he pieced together a career season. Signed on a one-year deal for a little under $1.3 million, he played a career-high 15 games and intercepted three passes. Throws at Callahan's direction in the slot generated minus-7.5 EPA for the offense, which was the fifth-best mark among players who primarily played slot corner.
Callahan will get a raise this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be rewarded for his work with a multiyear guarantee. He has missed an average seven games per season with various injuries, and the 31-year-old would expect to be on or approaching the downside of his career. The Chargers handed out a multiyear deal in 2020 to another impressive cornerback on the wrong side of 30 -- Chris Harris Jr. -- and ended up regretting their decision. In a league in which every team needs more cornerbacks, though, Callahan should be a tempting option.
Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
One of the key players in Jacksonville's comeback win over the Chargers was Engram, who caught seven passes for 93 yards and the team's opening touchdown. Playing with the best quarterback of his career, Engram set career highs in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766). For the season, he produced 1.58 yards per route run, which ranked ninth among tight ends.
Engram's one-year deal came in just below the franchise tag of $9 million, a surprise for a player who had been alternately injured and disappointing for most of his time in New York. An actual franchise tag for the 28-year-old would make sense for the Jags, but if he hits the open market, he should get a multiyear deal from a team hoping the improvements stick for the years to come.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings
Engram finished just behind Hockenson in yards per route run, and Hockenson also found new life after changing teams. Hockenson was traded from Detroit to Minnesota on Nov. 1, and he ranked second among tight ends in both receptions (60) and receiving yards (519) behind Travis Kelce after the deal.
Some of that newfound success is simply because of volume. Hockenson ran 349 routes from Week 9 on, and Kelce (324) was the only other tight end to run more than 260 routes over the same timeframe. He actually ranked just 13th in yards per route run over that stretch, and while he's playing alongside Justin Jefferson, the issue was mostly a product of not catching very deep passes. Hockenson's average target produced 6.0 yards, which was 26th among tight ends over that span.
His closest comparable on a per-route and per-catch basis after joining the Vikings was Tyler Higbee, which might not be as exciting as those cumulative numbers but would still represent a useful player for the Vikings. The tight end market continues to lag behind wide receivers, so while the Vikings will pick up his fifth-year option and work on an extension for him, he could still be a bit of a bargain if he blossoms further.
Garrett Bradbury, C, Vikings
Bradbury, a wildly frustrating first-round pick from the Rick Spielman regime, seemed to be finishing up his tenure with the Vikings this season. New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah declined his fifth-year option last spring, and it was unclear whether the 27-year-old would even be a part of the starting lineup.
Instead, he had his best season before suffering a back injury in early December. The injury cost him the final five games of the regular season, and the Vikings actually missed his presence in the lineup, something that would have been shocking for fans to hear before the season.
Bradbury already has suggested he wants to re-sign with the Vikings in free agency, but the team is in a difficult cap situation as it approaches the offseason. Guard Ed Ingram struggled mightily in his debut season, so having a steady hand at center might make the second-round pick's transition easier. With one year of success in four, though, can the Vikings count on Bradbury to be that steady hand?
Andrew Wylie, RT, Chiefs
It's hard for many players on the Chiefs offense to be underappreciated, but Wylie grew into that sort of role during what will likely be his final season with the organization. The former guard moved into the starting lineup during the 2021 season and spent the duration as Kansas City's right tackle. The 28-year-old allowed eight sacks, per Stats LLC, but he ranked ninth in pass block win rate, suggesting that some of those sacks were a product of Patrick Mahomes' interpretive pocket movement and extending of plays.
Good tackles are hard to come by, and the Chiefs might not be able to afford a new deal for him. Left tackle Orlando Brown will be an unrestricted free agent, left guard Joe Thuney is one of the highest-paid interior linemen in the league and second-year linemen Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith are one year away from justifying their own new deals. Wylie should hit the market, and after inking a one-year deal for $2.5 million, it would be a surprise if he didn't land a multiyear guarantee elsewhere.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs
For the second season in a row, McKinnon has become a more significant part of the Kansas City offense as the playoffs approached. This time, though, he has carved out a role I'm not sure we've ever really seen from a running back: red zone receiving back. He scored eight receiving touchdowns over the final six weeks of the season. According to Pro Football Reference, he was the first back in league history to catch seven receiving touchdowns over a six-game span, let alone eight.
Since Week 9, McKinnon has averaged 1.94 yards per route run, more than any other back. He has only averaged 5.5 carries per game over that stretch, so he's not being used as a primary back, but the 30-year-old has become a valuable player on a great offense. A creative team could find a use for McKinnon in the right role, and while he's not likely to get anything close to the ill-fated deal he signed with the 49ers before his knee troubles in 2018, he should get a raise on the $1.3 million he made this season.
Charles Omenihu, DL, 49ers
Omenihu quietly was added from the Texans at the trade deadline in 2021, but it took an offseason of working with defensive line coach Kris Kocurek to unlock the best out of him. He didn't have a single sack last season, but he had 4.5 sacks on 374 pass-rushing opportunities in 2022. More notably for analytically inclined teams, he was responsible for 16 quarterback hits and 28 initial pressures, suggesting the 25-year-old could land more sacks in 2023 and beyond.
The 49ers typically like to cycle through reclamation projects for Kocurek behind their starters, so Omenihu could be available for a team in need of pass-rushing upside as an unrestricted free agent.
Christian Wilkins, DT, Dolphins
I'm not sure there's really a player quite like Wilkins, who is a throwback to another generation of defensive tackles. Most tackles leave a modest statistical output against the run. Wilkins is a glaring exception. The 2019 first-round pick finished the season with 98 tackles, which doesn't happen in the modern game. No other interior lineman has topped 90 tackles in a season since 1996.
Tackles can be at the discretion of a generous official scorer, so let's go with another metric: tackles for loss. His 16 TFLs were the ninth-most in the league, and his 12 against the run were the most of any interior lineman. The only other defenders to match him with 12 TFLs against the run were Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby and Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu, who was one of the league's most underrated players.
Wilkins is already penciled in for a $10.8 million fifth-year option in 2023, but it would be no surprise if the Dolphins gave him a long-term extension this offseason.
Jamel Dean, CB, Buccaneers
Let's go from one Florida team to another. Dean generally was the second or third cornerback on the Buccaneers behind a more notable standout in Carlton Davis, but over the last two season, he has come into his own. He took another step forward in 2022, posting a 62.1 passer rating allowed on the outside as the nearest defender in coverage, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That figure ranked sixth among outside cornerbacks.
Dean hasn't had the sort of flashy season that might lead to award consideration, but he has emerged as an above-average cornerback on a team that typically asks a lot from its defensive backs. He suffered a foot injury in December and wasn't able to play outside of special teams in the wild-card loss to the Cowboys, which might have been his last game with the organization. The Bucs re-signed Davis a year ago and have significant free agents on both sides of the ball, so there's a chance the 26-year-old leaves for a big offer on the open market this March.
Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Bills
So many young players from the Bills are either already stars or failed to deliver on their potential in 2022. One of the few who fit neither category is Edmunds, who is still only 24 years old despite finishing his fifth NFL season. Edmunds made two Pro Bowls earlier in his career, but I don't really think people around the league perceived him to be that caliber of player. By the end of 2021, it was clear Matt Milano was the best linebacker on the team.
Well, Edmunds made some of that gap back up with an impressive season. He allowed a 71.2 passer rating and 4.9 yards per target, both of which were career-best marks. He was also credited with just one missed tackle all season, down from 10 a year ago and 12 during each of his Pro Bowl seasons. Edmunds' physical tools have never been questioned, but he was surer as a tackler and more consistent in coverage during a steadier season.
He missed four games, and the Bills pass defense was 11 points of QBR worse without him in the lineup. It's difficult to imagine the Bills letting Edmunds walk, but with Milano on a long-term deal and so much money invested in key players elsewhere, the Bills will have to get creative to keep him on their roster.
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Cowboys
From one first-round off-ball linebacker to another. Vander Esch looked like a budding star after earning a Pro Bowl nod in his rookie season in 2018, but a series of injuries over the two ensuing seasons seemed to stall his career. He returned to start 17 games for the Cowboys a year ago, but Dallas had declined his fifth-year option and only brought him back on a one-year, $2 million deal.
He'll be getting a raise. Vander Esch had his best season since that rookie campaign, with the Cowboys relying on his ranginess in coverage to help cover the middle of the field. He missed just three of his tackle attempts all season, and his steadiness as a linebacker allowed the Cowboys to unleash Micah Parsons more often as a pass-rusher. Vander Esch did miss three games with a stinger, and teams will want to give him a thorough physical if he leaves Dallas, but the 26-year-old should land a significant contract this offseason.
Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
In May, I argued the evidence from last season suggested the Cowboys should move Pollard into the primary role ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. This was controversial at the time and seems obvious now, which is a product of how impressive he has been during a breakout 2022 campaign.
Pollard didn't have the same volume as Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs, but he was a reasonable Pro Bowl selection. He generated 1.3 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt, just behind Khalil Herbert and Chubb for the best mark in the NFL; Elliott came in at minus-0.3 RYOE per attempt. Chubb was the only back to generate more cumulative RYOE, and Pollard was much more valuable than the Browns star as a receiver, racking up 371 yards and three touchdowns.
Dallas' salary-cap decisions from last offseason make it clear they'll cut Elliott this offseason to create cap space. Using that room to re-sign Pollard would hardly be a surprise, but he should see a strong market in free agency. Second running back deals rarely work out, but his modest workloads in Dallas and receiving ability make his closest comp Austin Ekeler, who turned out to be a bargain. It would be a surprise if Pollard's new deal came south of $10 million per season.
Germaine Pratt, LB, Bengals
One of several Bengals defenders about to hit free agency, Pratt has become an essential part of the Cincinnati run defense over the last two seasons. The Bengals take Pratt off the field at times on third downs, but he produced a 62.1 passer rating in coverage this season, his first year with a passer rating in coverage below 100.
Off-ball linebackers who don't play every snap sometimes struggle to get significant contracts, but Pratt continues to grow and will have a market if the Bengals don't bring him back.
James Bradberry, CB, Eagles
Bradberry was the best defensive free-agent signing of last offseason. After the Giants made Bradberry a cap casualty, he inked a one-year, $7.3 million deal with the rival Eagles. A career year followed, as he generated minus-32.8 expected points added (EPA) as the nearest defender in coverage, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the best mark for any cornerback.
Teams often are loathe to give cornerbacks on the wrong side of 30 big deals, but the 29-year-old Bradberry is still young enough to inspire hopes that he can stay at this level for a couple of seasons. The Eagles might not be able to afford the sort of deal he can get on the open market with what they're already paying Darius Slay, but it would be a huge loss if he went elsewhere.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
You had to know Hurts was going to be on here, right? The third-year sensation took a big leap for the second consecutive season, morphing from what had been one of the least accurate passers in league history as a rookie to one of the most accurate passers in 2022. Hurts has evolved into an excellent pocket passer without even considering what value he adds as a runner; the total package amounted to a 66.4 QBR, which ranked fourth in the league.
Hurts came into the season knowing that a subpar year might have pushed the Eagles to use some of their pick haul to go after a new quarterback in the 2023 draft. Now, the idea of the Eagles moving on from Hurts would be absurd. With no fifth-year option as a second-round pick, Hurts will be one year from unrestricted free agency after his season ends. He's going to be in line alongside Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert for top-of-the-line contract extensions this offseason.
Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
After leading the league in completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage, the hyper-accurate Smith is going to get a raise on the $3.5 million base compensation he took home in 2022. That shouldn't surprise anyone. His season came to an end with a wild-card loss to the 49ers, but I don't even think the Smith family could have imagined he would play as well as he did this season. His performance is a reminder that the old adage about the league lacking 32 quarterbacks for 32 teams is wrong; there are quarterbacks on the bench who would impress if they just got the chance.
Smith's next deal starts around the baseline of $32.5 million, the projected franchise tag value for 2023. If the two sides can't get together on a new deal, the Seahawks would likely use that tag to keep him. He likely would want a more significant guarantee on a multiyear pact, while the Seahawks would want cap flexibility and security in the process.
There's a middle ground that makes sense: maybe something like a three-year, $90-million pact where Smith takes home $40 million guaranteed and the Seahawks have the flexibility to get out of the deal after year one if he declines. With the No. 5 overall pick in April's draft, the Seahawks are also in position to use that selection on a quarterback of the future, which would push the 32-year-old into a bridge role.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Let's finish with the player whose value grew without stepping on the field. For the second season in a row, an injury with five games to go sidelined Jackson for the remainder of the season. In 2021, an ankle issue cost the Ravens their playoff berth. This season, a knee injury knocked him out of the lineup. While the Ravens eked out a wild-card spot, they lost out on a division title and were eliminated by the Bengals in a frustrating loss last weekend.
Jackson's performance was top-heavy and buoyed by a fantastic three-week stretch to start the season, but his 59.3 QBR was still good enough for ninth in the NFL. The offense wasn't kicking on all cylinders with Mark Andrews playing through an injury and Rashod Bateman out for most of the season, but it collapsed without Jackson; the Ravens scored just five offensive touchdowns over the final six regular-season games. The less said about that sneak at the 2-yard line in the playoff game, the better.
The Ravens face a series of difficult decisions. Going the exclusive franchise tag route, which would prevent any other team from negotiating with Jackson, would require them to pay him $45 million in 2023 and $54.3 million in 2024 before an unrealistic $78.2 million in 2025. Realistically, they would need to make a final decision on his future before the 2024 season to avoid losing him for nothing more than a compensatory pick in free agency the following season.
Would Baltimore consider using the traditional franchise tag on Jackson? Doing so would only guarantee the star quarterback $32.5 million in 2023 with a second tag for $39 million in 2024, but it would afford other teams the opportunity to negotiate a deal with him. It would get two first-round picks if a team signed a contract with Jackson and it refused to match; would that be enough of a return if a team such as the Falcons or Commanders were willing to give Jackson the deal of his dreams?
It's difficult to imagine the Ravens moving on from Jackson, but if they aren't willing to meet his contractual demands, a parting is inevitable. Is it better to make that move now and get the maximum possible return for your star quarterback than it would be to wait a year and lose more leverage? And if they do move on from Jackson, would a team with championship aspirations use its draft picks to get a rookie quarterback or go after a veteran free agent like Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency?
The most likely scenario has the Ravens franchising Jackson and delaying their decision until next season, but all possibilities are on the table after a frustrating end for the second consecutive campaign.