Derek Carr might be the first quarterback domino to fall this offseason. His release from the Raiders in mid-February makes him a street free agent, free to sign with any team at any time. The release allows him to get a jump on the market and negotiate/sign with teams before impending free agents such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett are allowed to do so.
Which is great for Carr, because right now there are lot of teams that need quarterback help. Teams in New York, Indianapolis... heck, the entire NFC South will be scouring free agency, the draft and all other possible options to find a starting quarterback for 2023.
So where should he go? Well, I'm glad you asked. Below is a list of potential destinations, complete with pros and cons and -- I PROMISE -- in no particular order. In addition to salary-cap realities for each team, we've also offered an idea of what kind of deal Carr might command in the current market:
Jump to a team:
Jets | Panthers | Texans
Saints | Bucs | Falcons | Colts
Commanders | 49ers | Titans
What kind of deal could Carr command?
It is worth noting any team signing Carr at this point would be giving him an entirely new contract. What he was making with the Raiders is irrelevant. What he'll end up getting is anyone's guess, but midrange starting quarterback money starts around $35 million a year right now, and if there are enough teams competing for Carr's services, he might be able to push it higher than $40 million. Of course, it being an all-new contract, Carr's team will be able to structure it in a way (if it so chooses) to keep the first-year cap number low by building in a large signing bonus. In terms of available comps for Carr, "Competent Starting Quarterbacks Released in February With Three Years Left on Their Contracts" is a fairly narrow category, so this will be interesting to watch.
New York Jets
Pros: Really good-looking young roster, complete with star-level talent at wide receiver, running back (assuming a successful return from injury by Breece Hall) and on defense. Heck, they have the current Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner! This team got pretty much nothing at all from the quarterback position in 2022 and was still in playoff contention in December. They're up against the salary cap right now, but there's plenty of contract fat on their roster that can be cut to make room. They might be desperate enough to outbid other teams for him.
Cons: It's a tough media market for a guy who hasn't always demonstrated the thickest skin when it comes to criticism. The offensive line (mainly due to health, yes) was a major issue this year and looms as a potential question mark. Coach Robert Saleh likely enters the 2023 season on the proverbial "hot seat," and players picking free agent destinations can sometimes be turned off by uncertainty in the leadership positions. Carr does not have a good record in cold weather, and the Jets don't have a roof on their East Rutherford, New Jersey, stadium.
Carolina Panthers
Pros: Not the highest-pressure market, and the bar has been set fairly low by the performances of his recent predecessors. The coaching staff, with Frank Reich in charge and guys like Josh McCown and Jim Caldwell in assistant roles, sounds appealing. D.J. Moore is a legit star receiver and there's good young talent on the defensive side of the ball. They'd need to make some cap room to afford him, but it's there in the form of cuts and restructures if they want it. The division is a total toss-up and the team finished 2022 strong.
Cons: They have the No. 9 overall pick in the draft and could be thinking about taking a young guy to groom for their future, which could relegate Carr to a "bridge" QB role, and that might not be what he's looking for.
Houston Texans
Pros: The rebuild could be a swift one in Houston. There are few teams more flush with cap space. They have 12 draft picks, including Nos. 2 and 12 overall, with which to build around him. His brother, David, used to play there, so he and his family know the organization and the city a bit. No state income tax!
Cons: They could use that No. 2 (or No. 12) pick on a young quarterback, relegating Carr to that bridge role. They really do need to build up their roster on offense and defense, and even with their resources that could take more than one offseason. The new coaching staff is very light on experience.
New Orleans Saints
Pros: Warm weather, legendary music scene, some of the world's best restaurants... oh, wait. Sorry. This wasn't supposed to be a list of reasons why I would want to go to New Orleans. Let's keep this on Carr. He knows Saints coach Dennis Allen, for whom he played with the Raiders early in his career. He'd be supported by maybe the best defense he's ever had. He has dynamic stars on offense in Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Also, the food, the music, the weather, etc. If that's his thing. I'm just sayin'.
Cons: As is their custom, the Saints enter the offseason eleventy bajillion dollars over the projected salary cap. And this time, there aren't a ton of obvious moves to make that would clear out big chunks. As a result, the cap-compliance moves the Saints might have to make just to afford Carr could weaken the roster significantly, and make it a less appealing destination. We'll see. The Saints' cap people are the best in the business at this, but it's going to be rough getting there this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pros: Their 2022 roster was good enough to convince Tom Brady to give it one more year, and they are two-time defending division champions (even if they were 8-9 last season). Mike Evans and Chris Godwin look like fun guys to throw to. No state income tax in Florida. Plus, Carr's record in cold weather is a bad one, and if you sign with the Bucs you know that at least 10 of your games every year won't be in cold weather.
Cons: The only team in worse cap shape than the Bucs is the Saints, which means Tampa could need to make the kinds of cuts that make this a less appealing roster than it was for Brady a year ago. How much job security will Todd Bowles and his coaching staff have if you don't win right away? Plus, it might be daunting to try and follow Tom Brady, even if this wasn't his best season.
Atlanta Falcons
Pros: A domed home stadium in a warm-weather division is appealing. They project to have more cap space than anyone outside of Chicago, so they could afford to bring him in and still add players around him. They were a competitive team for the bulk of the 2022 season, so there are already some pieces in place there. Coach Arthur Smith has a track record of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are a pair of very exciting young pass-catchers.
Cons: Picking No. 8 overall, the Falcons are another team that could sign Carr in February and draft his replacement in April. There are offensive line concerns that would have to be addressed in the draft and in free agency. With the two-time defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs up the road, the Falcons likely aren't even the most popular football team in their own state.
Indianapolis Colts
Pros: They just hired a sharp, offensive-minded head coach from a team that was in the Super Bowl. After what they've endured at the position over the past couple of years, the fan base is likely to embrace anyone who demonstrates any kind of competence, which he surely could. A fully healthy Jonathan Taylor would rejuvenate the kind of run game that any quarterback would love. The Colts are OK on cap space and could afford to pay him.
Cons: Other than Michael Pittman Jr., they don't have a ton of guys for him to throw to. The offensive line and the defense underachieved in 2022, so you'd be counting on a turnaround (not to mention, likely being asked to help engineer it). They have the fourth pick in the draft and will be tempted to use it on a longer-term option if an appealing one is there.
Washington Commanders
Pros: They have a really fun, young wide receiver group, a talented young running back and a strong defense. It's a franchise that's been looking for a quarterback answer for as long as Carr has been alive. The likely sale of the team could restore some of the luster to what was once a flagship franchise for the league. They're middle-of-the-pack in terms of cap space and would be able to afford him.
Cons: At this writing, they still don't have an offensive coordinator. Ron Rivera is another coach who'll be on "hot seat" watch going into next season (especially if the team has a new owner). It's a high-pressure market for a guy who bristles at outside criticism the way Carr does. And I don't know... maybe things will change if the team gets sold, but there's something about this franchise. It just seems like bad stuff is always going on around there. Just kind of a high "ick" factor to the place, right? Not sure a ton of guys are dying to go play there.
San Francisco 49ers
Pros: I mean, three Sundays ago in Philadelphia, if the 49ers had had literally any quarterback capable of throwing a forward pass, they might well have won the NFC Championship Game and gone to the Super Bowl. We'll never know. What we do know is that their roster and their coaching were good enough to get them to the NFC Championship Game after starting three different quarterbacks (including a seventh-round rookie) during the regular season. If I were a quarterback, of any age or ability level, I'd be very interested in going to the Bay Area (or in Carr's case back to the Bay Area) to play for Kyle Shanahan.
Cons: They might not be interested! Shanahan said a couple of weeks ago that he was comfortable going with Trey Lance and/or Brock Purdy, and that while they might need to look into adding a veteran to augment the group, it wouldn't be a big acquisition. Carr is likely to cost big money. The Niners might not be able to offer him the kind of contract or opportunity he seeks.
Tennessee Titans
Pros: Well, you can always turn around and hand off the ball to Derrick Henry... The Titans will be starting fresh on offense under new coordinator Tim Kelly and, if they decide to move on from Ryan Tannehill (as the mere existence of this blurb indicates they might), they may not be in quite good enough position to find their immediate answer in the draft. (They're picking 11th.) They drafted a wide receiver in the first round last year (Treylon Burks) who could grow into a star. They always seem to be in playoff contention.
Cons: Even if they cut Tannehill, they'd still project to be about $4 million over the cap, so they'd have to do other work just to afford Carr. Even with a healthy Henry, this offense was one of the worst in the league last year and will need a lot of work to become competitive, even in the relatively weak AFC South.