The disappointing seasons the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers are having with veteran quarterbacks who signed huge contract extensions this offseason got us thinking.
What, exactly, could the Broncos do about moving on from Russell Wilson if things don't get better? When, exactly, could they do it?
What, exactly, are the Packers' options with Aaron Rodgers if he decides to come back, if he demands a trade, if he retires, etc.? And what's the timetable on those?
Wilson's and Rodgers' deals have unique structures that make the issues thorny, but there are ways their teams can work around them if they decide they need to. I wanted to take a dive into those deals and try to explain what happens this year, next year, etc., if and when the teams decide they want out.
And then, as we got talking, we realized those aren't the only veteran QB contracts that may not look exactly as they've been presented. So we added a few more interesting veteran deals and some explanations of those.
Please understand, we aren't predicting what will happen with these teams and these quarterbacks. That depends on the results of games, the results of seasons, the wishes of the players, the health of the players, the whims of team owners... lots of stuff. This isn't one of our predict-the-future exercises.
No, this is an examination of contract structures with an eye on how flexible some of the bigger veteran QB deals are or are not. Hopefully it helps you learn something. Enjoy.
Jump to:
Rodgers | Wilson | Carr | Garoppolo
Murray | Stafford | Ryan | Goff
Prescott | Brady | Cousins | Tannehill
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million contract extension with the Packers this past offseason that technically runs through 2026. But the 2025 and 2026 seasons are basically dummy years put in there for cap purposes, so really the deal is up after 2024. And the 2024 money doesn't become guaranteed until the day after that year's Super Bowl, so really the 2023 season is all they have to worry about navigating. Rodgers turns 39 this week and has pondered retirement in several recent offseasons. The Packers are still figuring out what they have in 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love. The Packers' 2023 QB situation could go a number of different ways, which is probably why Rodgers' contract is structured the way it is.
Rodgers is scheduled to make about $59.5 million fully guaranteed in 2023. Of that, $58.3 million is in the form of a team option bonus. If the team declines the option, that $58.3 million becomes salary and the team gets hit with a roughly $75 million salary-cap charge for Rodgers in 2023. The Packers are not going to do that. If he's going to be on their 2023 team, they'll exercise the option and spread the cap hit out over several years. Their cap hit for Rodgers in 2023 would then be "just" $31.6 million.
Now here's where it gets really interesting. The deadline for picking up the option isn't until Week 1 of the 2023 regular season, which means the Packers can delay the formal exercising of the option all throughout the summer if they feel they might end up trading him or that he might retire.
If Rodgers retires, the Packers would take on a roughly $40 million cap hit in 2023, unless they waited until after June 1 to formally process the retirement, in which case the cap hit would be about $15.8 million in 2023 and about $24.5 million in 2024.
If the Packers decide to trade Rodgers, the acquiring team would take on the 2023 salary and option decision and a cap charge of $15.8 million if they picked up the option. Their dead-money cap hit would depend on when the trade took place. If the Packers trade him before June 1, they'd take on that roughly $40 million cap hit for 2023. If they trade him after June 1, the cap hits would be $15.8 million in 2023 and $24.5 million in 2024. That's why it makes sense to have the option deadline be so late -- to give everyone time to decide what to do. If you see the Packers pick up his option early in the offseason, that'll tell you they plan to have him on their 2023 roster. If not, they're leaving open the possibility that he won't be.
Releasing Rodgers would not be economically feasible, since the Packers would incur a dead-money cap hit of roughly $99 million.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Just before this season -- back when things looked so, so hopeful in Denver -- Wilson signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension with $124 million fully guaranteed at signing. The deal runs through 2028, but realistically the first chance the Broncos will have to get out of it will be after the 2023 season.
Wilson got a $50 million signing bonus, fully guaranteed salaries of $2 million in 2022, $8 million in 2023 and $17 million in 2024, plus a fully guaranteed $5 million roster bonus in 2022 and fully guaranteed option bonuses of $20 million in 2023 and $22 million in 2024. The option bonuses work the same way Rodgers' 2023 option bonus does (they convert to salary if the option isn't picked up, hence the full guarantee), except the dates for the Broncos to exercise Wilson's options are in March of the respective offseasons of 2023 and 2024.
If the Broncos wanted to cut Wilson after this season, they'd take a dead-money cap hit of $107 million in 2023 (or, if they designated him a post-June 1 cut, $61 million in 2023 and $46 million in 2024). They also would have paid him $124 million in cash for one season. This is obviously not likely. Trading him in 2023 -- especially if they could do it before exercising the option -- would greatly reduce the dead-money hit, but the trick would be finding someone to take his contract after this lousy year. Also not realistic.
The 2024 offseason is a different story. If Wilson is on the roster on the fifth day of the 2024 league year, then his 2025 salary of $37 million becomes fully guaranteed. So the Broncos would have to decide, by the fifth day of the 2024 league year (presumably based on how 2023 went), whether to commit to that or cut bait. Cutting him in 2024 before the 2025 money guarantees would cost the Broncos $85 million in dead money on their 2024 cap (or, if he's a post-June 1 cut, $35.4 million in 2024 dead money and $49.6 million in 2025 dead money). Not ideal, but with the cap expected to soar in the coming years thanks to revenue from the new TV deals, it's not impossible either. If the Broncos are done with Wilson after 2023, it would make sense to cut him before the 2025 salary becomes guaranteed -- better to have paid him $124 million for two years than $161 million for two years.
This is a huge mess, of course, for the Broncos. Wilson took a team-favorable deal in terms of the top-line average salary numbers, not insisting on matching or exceeding Aaron Rodgers' numbers. But the deal assumed he would play well, and he obviously has not. If 2023 is as big a disappointment as 2022 has been, the Broncos can move on from Wilson and start over at QB (again) in 2024. They'd probably just have to find a quarterback really cheap.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr did an "extension" last offseason that basically amounted to getting him a little boost in 2022 guarantees but otherwise was just intended to help the team spend money on other players. He got $24.9 million fully guaranteed at signing, including a $7.5 million signing bonus and a $17.4 million salary in 2022. While he technically signed through 2025, there is absolutely no guaranteed money left on his contract after this season. Moreover, the relatively small signing bonus (a rare exception for the Raiders, who historically have not liked to give signing bonuses at all) allows the Raiders to move on from Carr next offseason if they so choose without incurring much of a dead-money hit.
They will have to decide quickly. If Carr is still on the Raiders' roster three days after the Super Bowl, his 2023 salary of $32.9 million becomes fully guaranteed, as does $7.5 million of his $41.9 million 2024 salary. If they decide to cut him before those guarantees kick in, they would carry only a $5.625 million dead-money cap charge in 2023 and would owe Carr no more cash.
If Carr is on the roster three days after the Super Bowl, the Raiders still could trade him, but they'd have to find a team willing to guarantee him $40.4 million (and potentially pay him $74.8 million) over the next two years. That team could conceivably be out there, but you have to think the Raiders would want to know that before the February date on which his 2023 guarantees trigger. By that time, the Raiders will know where they're picking in the draft and maybe even what the chances are for a former Josh McDaniels protégé like Jimmy Garoppolo or Tom Brady playing for them in 2023. I'm not saying they will move on from Carr. I'm saying the contract says they can move on from Carr, if McDaniels wants to pick his own QB instead of build around the one he inherited when he took the job last year.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Speaking of Jimmy G, the pay cut he took to stay on the 49ers' roster this summer means he's making $7 million this year. But the deal included a no-franchise tag provision, which means Garoppolo will be a true free agent when the season is over. The Niners could sign him to an extension before the start of the league year if they want to keep him off the open market, but he wouldn't have to stay with them. If he keeps playing as well as he is right now and the Niners make noise in the postseason, you have to think Garoppolo will find an interesting market at age 31.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension last summer with $103.3 million fully guaranteed at signing, which felt like a lot until Russell Wilson signed his deal. Murray got a signing bonus of roughly $29 million and fully guaranteed salaries of $965,000 this year, $2 million in 2023 and $37 million in 2024, plus an option bonus of roughly $36 million in 2023 that's also guaranteed.
But things haven't gone so great in Arizona this year, so perhaps you're wondering whether the Cardinals can escape the Murray deal -- especially if there are changes on the horizon to the coaching staff and/or front office. The answer is no -- at least not anytime soon.
The key date for the Cardinals is the start of the 2024 league year, at which time nearly $31 million in guaranteed 2025 salary and bonuses becomes fully guaranteed. If the Cardinals decide to cut Murray after the 2023 season, they'll have paid him $103.3 million for two years of service and they'd incur a dead-money cap hit of about $81.5 million in 2024 (or, if they cut him post-June 1, $48.3 million in 2024 and $33.2 million in 2025).
If the Cardinals want to trade Murray after this season, and if they were able to do so before picking up the 2023 option, they would carry just a $23.228 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap. But that would require them to persuade a team to take on a contract that pays Murray a guaranteed $75 million or so over the next two years.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams paid a Super Bowl championship tax when they extended Stafford in the offseason. Yes, the deal helped them manage their 2022 salary cap, but they also structured it in a way that likely ties them to a 34-year-old quarterback who came into the season with an elbow problem and has missed time recently due to concussion and neck problems. Stafford got a $60 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed salaries of $1.5 million this year and next year, so $63 million guaranteed at signing.
If he's still on the Rams' roster at the start of the 2023 league year, then both a $26 million 2023 option bonus and his $31 million 2024 salary become fully guaranteed. So, either they cut him after this year, having paid him $63 million for one season and eat $75.5 million in dead-money cap charges, or they keep him on the 2023 roster and end up paying him $120 million over three years from 2022-24. Odds are, they choose the latter option, but who knows? A few years back we did a similar look at QB contracts where we claimed the Rams would never be willing to absorb Jared Goff's dead-money charge, but they did, and eventually won the Super Bowl as a result.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Who knows what will happen with the Colts and their QB situation after this year, but they could, in theory, bring Ryan back for one more year. He's signed through 2023, and $12 million of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. He's got another $17 million in salary and bonuses that become fully guaranteed at the start of the 2023 league year. So either they could cut him, which would require them to pay him $12 million not to play for them and cost them $18 million in dead money on their 2023 cap, or they could keep him and pay him $29 million to start and/or back up for them in 2023, depending on what else they do at the position. Note: The Colts cannot designate Ryan a post-June 1 cut, because his contract expires at the end of 2023, so there are no future years into which dead cap money can be dumped.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff is signed through 2024 and is scheduled to make $30.65 million in 2023 and $31.65 million in 2024. But there is no more guaranteed money left on Goff's deal after this year, so the Lions could cut him, owe him no cash and carry just a $10 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap (or $5 million each in 2023 and 2024, if they so chose). He does have a $5 million roster bonus due at the start of the 2023 league year, which means they'd have to decide about his status by then or pay him the extra $5 million regardless of whether he plays for them. Agents like to put March roster bonuses into deals in later years to force the team into a decision timetable that's more favorable to the player -- cutting Goff in March would give him more time to sign on with a team than if they waited until after the draft, for example.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Here's an interesting one! Prescott is signed through 2024, and his 2023 salary of $31 million is fully guaranteed. His 2024 salary of $29 million is not guaranteed, nor is his 2024 roster bonus of $5 million (which comes with a March 2024 deadline). Dak is sure to be the Cowboys' starter for at least one more year after this one and probably much longer, as they'll likely look to extend him this offseason or next. But if things were to go wrong, the 2024 season is when the Cowboys would have a relatively easy out.
Moving on from Dak in the 2024 offseason would cost them no cash, and about $40 million in dead-money cap charges for 2024. But Dak's only 29, and they love him there, so things would have to go very wrong for any of this to matter. Just pointing out that this extension, which feels so recent, was a short-term deal designed to get him to the market again sooner, or prompt a decision by Dallas on an extension in the next year or two.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady is technically signed through 2026, which is hilarious because that's the year he turns 49. But that deal is only spread out that far for cap purposes. Brady's contract voids at the start of the 2023 league year, and he will be a free agent. The Buccaneers will carry a $35 million dead-money cap charge for Brady in 2023 unless they extend him again before the deal voids. They also could spread that $35 million out over two years if he retires and they delay the official retirement beyond June 1.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins is making $30 million in 2023, and it's guaranteed money, but it's in the form of a $10 million salary and a $20 million March roster bonus. Because of signing bonus proration, cutting Cousins would incur a $48 million cap charge for the Vikings in 2023. But if they decided to trade him, and they did it before the roster bonus was due, then the full $30 million would become the acquiring team's responsibility and the dead-money charge for Cousins in 2023 for Minnesota would be $18.75 million. This is another one that likely depends on how the year ends. Certainly, from the current vantage point, it's tough to see why the Vikings would move off of Cousins next offseason. But at some point they're not going to be able to give him fully guaranteed extensions every offseason.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Tannehill has one more non-guaranteed year left on his deal. He's scheduled to make $27 million in 2023. Cutting him would bring an $18.8 million dead-money charge, which is affordable if the Titans decide to go in a different direction. They've won a lot of games with Tannehill, but if this season were to end as disappointingly as last season did, you wonder whether they'd look at other options.