NASHVILLE -- Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in the excitement. I cover sports, after all, and while sports reporters have a reputation for being jaded and immune to the emotions of the events they chronicle, I think a lot of that is overblown.
I was covering the Cincinnati Bengals-Tennessee Titans game on Sunday, for example, and while it wasn't the highest-scoring game you'll ever see, it was a nail-biter. Two AFC heavyweights in a physical fight that came down to Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins making a big fourth-quarter play, and the Bengals' defense doing just enough to contain Derrick Henry. It was a worthy rematch of their January playoff game, and it was the kind of game that makes you hope they play each other in the postseason again this year.
"That's the kind of game," said Burrow, the Bengals' brash, young quarterback, "that great teams win."
The Bengals believe they can be great. They've won seven of their past nine, and thanks to the Jacksonville Jaguars' upset of the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, they're tied for first place in the division they won last year.
The Titans ... well, they know they're going to be all right. They still have a comfy lead in their division, and it's not as if they got blown out or embarrassed. They have their issues. They need to score more points. But Mike Vrabel's bunch finds a way, and it's fair to expect Tennessee to be in the playoff picture in the AFC all year. This win meant more to the Bengals than the loss did to the Titans.
But it was fun watching two playoff-caliber teams duke it out three days before the start of December, and it reminded me of what's coming. The games from here take on a little bit more meaning, a lot more intensity, and come with enough emotions to make the weekly overreactions column a little more fun.
The Bengals will repeat as AFC North champs
As they dressed, did their interviews and packed their bags to leave the visitors locker room after the game Sunday, Bengals players were locked in on the TV showing the final minutes of the Ravens-Jaguars game. It was back and forth, but every positive Jacksonville play on the final drive elicited cheers of excitement. And when the Jaguars stopped Baltimore at the end to clinch the win, there was celebration.
The Bengals and Ravens now have the same record with six games to play. And while Cincinnati is in bad tiebreaker shape thanks to a 1-3 division record that includes a head-to-head loss to the Ravens, it is a supremely confident team that's hitting its stride at the right time. The Bengals are not to be dismissed as division contenders, or even Super Bowl contenders. No other likely playoff team reached last year's Super Bowl, and their proximity to that experience makes them as confident as anyone in the league right now.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It's not going to be easy. Baltimore's schedule looks a lot softer than Cincinnati's the rest of the way. The only team left on the Ravens' schedule that has a winning record is the Bengals, who host Baltimore in a Week 18 game that could decide this division. Meanwhile, Cincinnati goes home to play the Kansas City Chiefs next week and still has to play the Cleveland Browns (who kind of own them, and are getting Deshaun Watson back), the Bucs and the New England Patriots on the road, then the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore at home to close out the season.
The Bengals are a lot more likely to trip up once or twice on their schedule than the Ravens are. That said, Baltimore just blew another fourth-quarter lead and lost to Jacksonville while the Bengals were beating the Titans. Lamar Jackson's offense isn't exactly clicking right now. Burrow's is, and it's likely to get Ja'Marr Chase back next week. If Baltimore lets the Bengals hang around to the point where that Week 18 game is for the division, I wouldn't bet against Burrow pulling it off.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to miss the playoffs
Tom Brady's bunch came out of the bye hoping to recapture some of the post-bye magic that carried them to a Super Bowl title two seasons ago. They did not. They led 17-10 going into the fourth quarter, and they did not score again. They still almost came away with the win, but Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett's last stand did them in. Brissett threw a tying touchdown in the final seconds and led a winning touchdown drive in overtime.
After the third-quarter touchdown pass that gave them the lead, the Buccaneers had the ball seven more times. Those seven possessions included three three-and-outs, resulted in six punts (the other one ended when regulation did) and averaged 12.9 yards per possession. This is a broken offense, and it's hard to see where and how the fix is coming.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Once again, this is not a reflection of the 5-6 Bucs, but of the division in which they play. The 5-7 Atlanta Falcons, the team right behind them, failed to take advantage of an opportunity to win in Washington on Sunday. So the Bucs remain in first place by half a game over Atlanta. But the 4-8 Carolina Panthers are just a game and a half back of the Buccaneers following their easy victory over the listless Denver Broncos.
If the Bucs don't get it together, someone could sneak in and steal that division -- and its only playoff spot -- away from them. But be honest: Of those four teams, which one do you have the most faith in to get it going over the final six weeks? Yeah, it's Brady's team, despite the fact that it looks more like a late-Patriots Brady team than it does a Brady-led Bucs team.
The Broncos need to bench Russell Wilson
Seriously. My goodness. What on earth are the Broncos right now? They played a Panthers team that went 2-for-12 on third down and averaged 5.4 yards per play, and they lost, in part because they went 4-for-14 on third down and averaged 4.2 yards per play.
Wilson, the quarterback for whom they traded a treasure trove of picks and players last offseason, the guy they signed to a massive contract extension right before the season started, was a painful-looking 19-for-35 for 142 yards and a touchdown (a late, 1-yard, kind of garbage-timey touchdown toss that required a number of Carolina penalties to set up). Wilson entered Sunday ranked 30th in the NFL in QBR -- one spot behind Carson Wentz and one ahead of Davis Mills. Neither of those guys is currently the starting quarterback for his team, just sayin'.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Let me be clear: I believe there is a zero percent chance, give or take zero, of this happening. You don't sign a dude to a contract like the one the Broncos gave Wilson only to sit him down with six games left in his first season in your building. Wilson isn't going to be the one taking the fall for this. Fair or not, it's a lot more likely first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett gets held responsible, even if it takes until after the season for Denver to make that move. But in Wilson, you have a guy who's not producing, who doesn't seem interested in functioning within the structure of the offense, whose teammates are now yelling at him on the sideline and who doesn't seem to have any sense of urgency to fix anything.
It's almost as if Wilson is marking time until he's in a different offense next year, which would be terrible. I don't think Hackett, in his very unsuccessful first year, has the political capital in the building to bench Wilson, but it'd be a heck of a wake-up call in a season going nowhere. Think about this: At the time this game ended, the Broncos' first-round pick, which belongs to the Seattle Seahawks as a result of the Wilson trade, projected to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft. That's a trade that's not working out.
Lamar Jackson is playing his way out of a contract extension
Baltimore's offense is not in a good place right now. Jackson was ... fine Sunday with 254 passing yards and a touchdown, and 89 rushing yards. Fine. He has been sorta fine, but not spectacular since early in the season. And his fourth-quarter numbers all year have been eyebrow-raising. Sunday night, he was getting agitated on Twitter at people who were suggesting he wasn't worth the contract he was asking for last offseason.
The Ravens have lost three games this year in which they've led by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. They're the ninth team to do that, fourth since 2000. No other team has lost four such games. The Ravens have six games remaining on their schedule.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Remember: The reason Jackson doesn't have a contract extension already is not because the Ravens don't believe in Jackson. It's because they don't believe in fully guaranteed contracts, and by all accounts he was insisting on one. Unless his position changes or their position changes, Jackson is likely to play next year -- and the year after that -- on the franchise tag.
There are a lot of people to blame for the Ravens' fourth-quarter problems this season, and surely Jackson would tell you he'll accept his share of that blame. But those who would use this Ravens season as a referendum on Jackson's chances to get paid aren't paying attention to the reality of the situation. The Ravens were and still are willing to give Jackson a top-of-the-market QB deal. It's the fully guaranteed aspect that's the hangup, and it seems it will continue to be, no matter how this Ravens season turns out.
The NFC East will put all four teams in the playoffs
The Philadelphia Eagles have the best record in the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys have the third-best record in the NFC. The New York Giants might be leaking oil a bit, but their hot start still has them hanging on to the No. 6 seed. And the Washington Commanders, after beating the Falcons on Sunday in what could turn out to be a huge game in the playoff race, are 7-5 and a half-game ahead of the Seahawks for the No. 7 spot at the moment.
It's only the third season in which a division could send all four of its teams to the playoffs, but both East divisions have a shot. This week, in honor of Washington's surge, we spotlight the NFC East, in part because the overall weakness of the NFC field relative to the AFC makes this even more likely.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Giants actually do appear spent, and they still have two games against Philly, one against the Minnesota Vikings and two against Washington. Even if you buy the Giants' ability to pull an upset or two (which I do!), the possibility that the same team wins both Giants-Commanders games makes it unlikely that both will reach the postseason.
It could happen, but it'll require some continued Taylor Heinicke magic and the Giants to getting back to their early-season overachieving ways. There's a chance, obviously, that neither of those things continue and the NFC East puts only two teams in. Four is asking a lot.