As we turn our attention to the traditional second half of the fantasy baseball season (which begins at 2:20 p.m. ET on Friday with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Boston Red Sox), it's a performance that concluded the season's first half that should grab our focus on the free agent pickup front.
Eury Perez, the 22-year-old budding ace of the Miami Marlins, tossed an absolute gem on the first half's concluding Sunday, shutting out the Baltimore Orioles on three hits and no walks while striking out six. It was good for 26 fantasy points using ESPN scoring, matching his career high from Aug. 19, 2023.
With the performance, Perez has now posted three consecutive outings with at least 20 fantasy points, marking the second time in his career he has achieved such a feat. The underlying metrics in his seven starts since returning from Tommy John surgery have been eye-popping. The right-hander's average fastball velocity has increased by a noticeable margin, going from 97.5 mph in 2023 to 98.1 this year, and the pitch has the second-highest spin rate of anyone's four-seam fastball (2,662). He has quickly developed it into one of the game's toughest individual pitches to hit.
Statcast reflects a 2.37 expected ERA for Perez, putting him mere percentage points behind Zack Wheeler (2.37) for the lead among starters and ahead of All-Star Game starters and widely regarded Cy Young Award favorites Tarik Skubal (2.43) and Paul Skenes (2.48). Furthermore, no starting pitcher (regardless of minimum outings) has done better than Perez's .181 expected batting average against.
As play resumes, Perez should be high on your list of prospective pickups, as his raw stuff is electric. While his Marlins might opt to rein in his innings, his 56 ⅔ IP combined between the majors and minors thus far indicate that he should be able to throw without much limitation through August. Best yet, he's available in a whopping 72.4% of ESPN leagues.
Sticking with the theme of high-ceiling, widely available players to add as the season's second half dawns, here are four more options to consider in standard leagues:
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/SS, Boston Red Sox (available in 56.3%): Previously more valuable in rotisserie leagues than points leagues, Rafaela's winter adjustments have made him enough of a threat with his bat to now warrant universal rostership. He focused specifically on improving his approach against breaking pitches, and the results are stark. He is hitting .312, slugging .578 and has a .386 wOBA against them this year, after posting only .262/.380/.252 such rates in 2023. Rafaela has also vastly improved his contact against both breaking balls (a 6% reduction in whiff rate) and fastballs (a 10% reduction) -- another key skill for points-league success.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (available in 76.0%): One of the sneakiest raw power sources in baseball, Kurtz has hit 16 home runs since May 20. To put that into perspective, that's more than any other rookie has hit the entire season, and it's fourth-most among hitters of all experience levels since that date. Kurtz's bat speed ranks among the game's fastest, and again for some perspective, his 77.5 mph mark is eighth-best among any hitter who has taken a swing -- well within the range of Home Run Derby contestants Oneil Cruz (78.6) and Junior Caminero (78.0) and faster than Aaron Judge's (76.9).
Kurtz does have the look of an "all or nothing" slugger, placing second in strikeout rate among hitters with at least as many as his 235 plate appearances (33.2%), but he's also more selective than you might think. His chase rate (percentage of swings at non-strikes) places in the 76th percentile.
Noelvi Marte, 3B, Cincinnati Reds (available in 83.3%): Although he missed 80 games in 2024 due to a PED suspension and nearly two months of this year due to an oblique injury, Marte is becoming a trusted member of the Reds' regular lineup heading into the second half. They released Opening Day third baseman Jeimer Candelario in June and demoted Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Triple-A Louisville on Saturday, signaling the Reds' faith in Marte being able to handle third base.
Since his return from the IL, Marte has three homers and a .952 OPS over nine games. For the season, he has made big strides in terms of contact, slashing 5% off his whiff rate compared to 2023. If Marte could get a little more lift on the ball (48.9% career ground-ball rate) or hit breaking pitches better (.296 wOBA, 36% whiff rate), he could take off in the hitter-friendly environment in Cincinnati.
Trevor Rogers, SP, Baltimore Orioles (available in 68.1%): Featured in this space as a deeper-league pickup a little over a week ago, Rogers' progression has swiftly moved him into universal rostership territory. He has made huge strides -- especially against right-handed hitters -- thanks to a changeup that has held them to a .188 BAA and a .206 wOBA. His sinker has delivered .211/.274 such rates, and Rogers continues to pepper the strike zone (55.5% zone rate). Rogers' rotation spot also seems secure, with the Orioles expected to be active over the next two-plus weeks leading up to the trade deadline.