Assessing 2023 NFL head-coach hires: Can ex-Eagles coordinators win?

The Arizona Cardinals brought the 2023 NFL head-coaching carousel to a halt on Valentine's Day, selecting Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to the post, sources told Adam Schefter. Gannon replaces Kliff Kingsbury, who did not win a playoff game in four seasons in the desert and whose tenure ended with a 4-13 thud in 2022.

Earlier in the day, the Indianapolis Colts tabbed Gannon's fellow Eagles coordinator Shane Steichen for their top role. Like Gannon, Steichen parlayed his team's Super Bowl trip into his first head-coaching job. He'll take over a Colts franchise that sank to 4-12-1 under Frank Reich and Jeff Saturday last season.

Before the Gannon and Steichen news, Sean Payton's hire by the Denver Broncos and DeMeco Ryans' selection to the top job of the Houston Texans had been the most recent matches. Payton's name was the biggest of the 2023 NFL coaching carousel, and his upcoming work with struggling former All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson figures to be heavily scrutinized. Ryans, meanwhile, will attempt to revive a Texans franchise for which he once starred at linebacker (2006-11) before building a coaching career that included defensive coordinator duties with a top-flight San Francisco 49ers group.

The Carolina Panthers opened things up by naming ex-Colts coach Frank Reich to their head job.

NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler debated each of the five hires made during the 2023 cycle.

Jonathan Gannon to the Cardinals

NFL background: Defensive coordinator for the Eagles (2021-2022); defensive backs coach for the Colts (2018-20); assistant defensive backs coach for the Vikings (2014-17); defensive quality control coach for the Titans (2012-13); scout for the Rams (2009-11); defensive quality control coach for the Falcons (2007)

Graziano: This started to bubble up over the weekend -- that Gannon was a guy the Cardinals had their eye on and that things could move quickly after the Super Bowl. New Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort wasn't hired until after the window had expired to interview coaches on the staffs of the teams with bye weeks, so he had to wait until after the Eagles' season ended to interview Gannon, which he did Monday. Obviously, what he heard in the interview backed up the already-high opinion he had of Gannon, and things did indeed move quickly.

There's a lot to fix in Arizona, and one of the biggest problems will be that quarterback Kyler Murray is a) locked in on a long-term deal and, b) not likely to be available until late in the 2023 season due to his recovery from the injury that ended his 2022 season. This is a first-time head coach and GM who will have to work very hard to articulate and implement their vision for the franchise and stick to their plan under adverse circumstances.

Fowler: The timing of this move might seem strange to anyone taking a short-sighted view. Yes, Gannon's group struggled in the second half against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs less than 48 hours before the hire was made. But Arizona prudently put much more stock in the totality of an Eagles season where the NFC champs had historically good pass-rushing numbers than in 30 minutes against a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Gannon has the command-the-room type of presence this organization will need as it attempts to shift its culture. The big question will be Gannon's approach to handling Murray and the offense. This is a place where another candidate like Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka (who worked well with both Mahomes and Daniel Jones) might have brought stronger credentials.

The verdict on the Cardinals hiring Gannon

Graziano: Gannon is a guy a lot of people around the league believe in as a top head-coach candidate for his intelligence, his leadership and his ability to command a room. I'm not sure what success will look like for the 2023 Cardinals, but if what they're looking for is a long-term leader with the skills to manage the organization through ups and downs, they aren't the only ones who've identified that in Gannon over the past couple of years.

Fowler: Gannon, who brought together a number of disparate parts to form one of the league's feared defenses in Philadelphia, has qualities that intrigue me for a rebuilding job like the Cardinals. I'll need to see more -- particularly in the assembly of his offensive staff and his early work with the still recovering Murray (knee) -- but the early belief is that Ossenfort and owner Michael Bidwill did their homework and got a coach with a solid probability for success.

Shane Steichen to the Colts

NFL background: Offensive coordinator for the Eagles (2021-22); offensive coordinator for the Chargers (2020); interim offensive coordinator for the Chargers (2019); quarterbacks coach for the Chargers (2016-19); offensive quality control coach for the Chargers (2014-15); offensive quality control coach for the Browns (2013); defensive assistant for the Chargers (2011-12)

Graziano: Much like the Carolina Panthers, the Colts went into this offseason and this process obsessed with finally getting the quarterback position right. They interviewed a wide range of candidates. Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris got strong consideration, and obviously the owner has a strong affinity for interim head coach Jeff Saturday. But in the end, they went with one of the candidates who has had his hands on the quarterback position and has had success with it.

The fact that Steichen has some secondary connections with the Colts through guys like Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni gives them some level of familiarity with him and surely helps mitigate (in their eyes) his lack of prior head-coaching experience. The Colts might not know who their quarterback is going to be, but they knew they wanted a head coach who could get the most out of him when they do find him. So, as they did five years ago after Josh McDaniels stiffed them, they hired the offensive coordinator of a Super Bowl Eagles team and will hope it works.

Fowler: Steichen brings an innovative offensive approach to Indy. What he has done with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offense has been impressive. Get him a mobile quarterback and he can modernize the Indy attack with some read-option action. The word is Steichen did not interview well early in the circuit. He'll face questions about whether he can lead a locker room. But he's known in Philly circles as personable and engaging. The Colts know Steichen from his ties to Reich and Sirianni, the former Colts head coach-offensive coordinator pair. He understands the culture there. He's got a fiery side. No reason it can't be a fit.

The verdict on the Colts hiring Steichen

Graziano: I don't know. Maybe he'll be great. There's no way anyone can say with any certainty how this will go. I always feel like Morris, thanks to his range of experience (including experience as a head coach!) should be a stronger option for these teams than he turns out to be. The Colts are rolling the dice here without knowing exactly how Steichen will run the building and how effective he can be leading the whole roster. Hiring a guy because of his scheme or his playcalling acumen doesn't always end well, but as I said, the Colts know and trust the coaches for whom he has worked, so maybe they see something the rest of us on the outside can't.

Fowler: The Colts did what many thought they wouldn't do -- eschew Jeff Saturday and undergo a thorough process. It's clear general manager Chris Ballard was driving the search. While Morris in a second act had high potential, Steichen was one of Indy's top candidates, and with the Colts picking at No. 4, they now have a savvy offensive coach who can grow with a high-potential rookie at the game's most important position.

Sean Payton to the Broncos

NFL background: Head coach for the Saints (2006-11, 2013-21), quarterbacks coach for the Cowboys (2003-05), offensive coordinator for the Giants (2000-02), quarterbacks coach for the Giants (1999), quarterbacks coach for the Eagles (1997-98)

Graziano: Well, I'll say this: The Broncos aren't going to have a second straight year of playcalling issues and delay-of-game penalties. Payton's experience with gameday operation should be a major boost to quarterback Russell Wilson and the rest of the offense. And given what they're likely paying him and what they gave up to get him, I'm confident the Broncos won't throw Payton under the bus if Wilson has another lousy year. Payton will be charged with fixing Wilson and, if he can't, figuring out how to transition to whoever the QB is after Wilson is gone.

But my goodness, do I have questions, and the big one is about Broncos GM George Paton. Payton ran the whole show in New Orleans, and the presumption has been that he would want to do so again in his next stop. What does that mean for Paton, and how will the player acquisition and roster construction work?

Fowler: If you view this hire through the prism of giving Wilson the best chance to succeed -- which is the way to view it -- then this is the best hire Denver could have made. Wilson needs help, a career reset with a coach who demands more and provides structure. Payton is, without question, considered a top-three offensive coach and playcaller in the modern era. That fills a major void here. Denver has been stagnant on offense for much of the past decade. Time to fix it.

But there's so much going on beyond the quality of the hire. Denver gave up first- and second-round picks to make this happen, stressing its draft capital for the second consecutive year. While we don't know the details of Payton's contract yet, teams I've talked to believe Payton's ballpark was around $23 million, and that Denver wasn't quite comfortable paying that, so let's see where they end up. Either way, it's a ginormous number.

Denver's meandering coaching search leaves questions about whether Payton was actually the first choice, though complicated deals involving draft picks and high salary can take time. And then there's the Paton element you mentioned, Dan. Paton is well regarded in the building despite a few missteps, but the buzz around the league is Payton wants to reunite with Saints vice president/assistant general manager Jeff Ireland. That affects the Paton dynamic.

The verdict on the Broncos hiring Payton

Graziano: In the past two offseasons, the Broncos have basically traded three first-round picks, three second-round picks and three NFL players for Wilson and Payton. It's no stretch to say they are banking their entire future on those two men, the first of whom hasn't reached the Super Bowl in eight years and the second of whom hasn't reached the Super Bowl in 13 years. If Wilson struggles in 2023 the way he did in 2022, Payton is going to have to do a straight-up Hall of Fame coaching job to justify what the Broncos paid to get him.

Fowler: A massive bet, indeed, and one bet entirely on two styles that could take a while to mesh. Wilson isn't the precision thrower that Drew Brees was for Payton in New Orleans. Wilson brings big plays, instincts and throws on the move. Can Payton adapt? I'm guessing he's versatile enough to do it. And there's precedent for the splashy trade for a head coach working. Look no further than Bill Parcells from the Patriots to the Jets and Bill Belichick from the Jets to the Patriots. Still, Payton needs a strong plan to thrive, starting with his defense. Keeping defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is a viable option.

DeMeco Ryans to the Texans

NFL background: Defensive coordinator for the 49ers (2021-22), inside linebackers coach for the 49ers (2018-20), defensive quality control for the 49ers (2017)

Graziano: Ryans was a popular guy, and was high on Denver's list as well. At 38 years old and seven years removed from a distinguished playing career, Ryans has risen fast through the coaching ranks and is here in large part because of the job he did building San Francisco's defense into a dominant unit. Ryans was an outstanding leader as a player and seems to have transferred those skills into his coaching career, so now he'll get a chance to transfer them from the small room to the big room. The obvious questions, Jeremy, are who's going to be the quarterback and who's going to run the offense, and Ryans' success or failure will rest on those answers.

Fowler: I have to think the Texans take a hard look at Bryce Young, who might be the best pure passer in the draft. Klint Kubiak could be a name to watch at offensive coordinator. He has obvious ties to Houston through his father, Gary Kubiak. Overall, finding faults with this hire is difficult. Ryans is considered a natural leader and a dynamic coach, and his fit in Houston is seamless. He understands the culture there, and a nostalgic pick with a connection to the city is just what a sagging Texans franchise needs at the moment. It sounds like Ryans had options but chose Houston's bevy of draft capital (including 11 picks in the 2023 draft, with No. 2 overall). The Texans didn't seem to know where to aim over the past two years but zeroed in this time.

The verdict on the Texans hiring Ryans

Graziano: If Ryans was picking between this job and Denver, as some believe he was, I actually think he might have made the right choice. The Texans have the draft capital and the cap space to allow them to address the QB situation any way they want, and Ryans is a smooth leader who knows how to ride the line of communication with players -- close enough to his own playing days to identify with them but stern enough to remind them who's in charge when he needs. I like the hire, and I'm confident predicting he'll last longer than either of the past two Texans head coaches did!

Fowler: One thing I'm watching closely here is Ryans' working relationship with general manager Nick Caserio. Ryans has been a position coach or coordinator for five NFL seasons. He's a fast riser and will need an experienced GM to help him. Is Caserio that guy? He definitely has the experience after two decades in New England and restocking Houston's draft capital in two years. But the two don't have much history, so let's see how they coalesce. But Houston nailed this one.

Frank Reich to the Panthers

NFL background: Head coach for the Colts (2018-22), offensive coordinator for the Eagles (2016-17), offensive coordinator for the Chargers (2014-15), quarterbacks coach for the Chargers (2013), wide receivers coach for the Chargers (2013), wide receivers coach for the Cardinals (2012), wide receivers coach for the Colts (2011), quarterbacks coach for the Colts (2009-10)

Graziano: If you look at the list of dudes Carolina interviewed, they definitely had a type. Obsessed with, at some point, getting the quarterback situation right, team owner David Tepper interviewed offensive coordinator after offensive coordinator. We'd also heard early in the process that Tepper wanted someone with previous NFL head-coaching experience. Reich fits both descriptions, which is probably why he ended up beating out interim head coach Steve Wilks (whose background is on the defensive side).

That Wilks stayed in it until the end is a testament to the way the team performed during his tenure after the midseason firing of Matt Rhule, but in the end the focus on offense won out. It's easy to say they could have hired Wilks and then brought in a star offensive coordinator, but the fact is there are currently 11 offensive coordinator openings, so it's getting pretty tough to land a star OC without making him the HC. Lousy break for Wilks, who did what he could to earn the full-time job, although Reich is certainly qualified on a number of levels. Now, as was the case for him in Indy, the trick is to find the right quarterback.

Fowler: From your points, Dan, a few themes emerge for me. Tepper leaned into the safe, risk-averse pick after the Matt Rhule gamble backfired. Hiring Reich is like picking the sedan with good gas mileage for the road trip. It's sensible, not overly exciting. And that's OK. But it feels like Wilks never quite had a chance, because he did everything he could and remained in the background. Tepper set a tone for not hiring Wilks the minute he said in an October press conference that Wilks would need an ''incredible" interim stint to potentially get the job. Also, the young offensive coordinators that the team targeted dating back to November either didn't convince Tepper to take a risk or needed another year to develop in the coordinator spot. And I'm pretty sure 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans would have been interested in this job had Carolina pursued a little harder.

Graziano: The elephant in the room, of course, is that Reich is yet another white head-coach hired over a Black man in a league that acknowledges it has a diversity problem in its head-coaching ranks. Reich was out of work less than three months before bouncing right back into a head-coach job, while Wilks took on the very difficult task of piloting Tepper's team to the finish line and, by all accounts, did a good job with it.

The statement put out in the wake of the Reich announcement by the law firm representing Wilks and Brian Flores in their suit against the league points to an ongoing problem for the NFL. With four openings still to go, the outside world obviously will be watching closely to see if coaches who get these jobs come from a diverse pool. Two things can be true: That Reich is a good head coach who might well have been the right hire for Carolina; and that there is a significant, troubling double standard in the NFL when it comes to who gets second chances at these jobs and who does not.

The verdict on the Panthers hiring Reich

Graziano: For me, it's all about who they get at quarterback. There's more good than bad on Reich's Indianapolis résumé, but the inability to find a permanent solution at the most important position ultimately did him in. Ideally for Carolina, he'll be rejuvenated and they'll find him someone with whom he can win. I think if they get the right QB, they'll end up very happy with this hire.

Fowler: This is a B to B-minus hire, somewhere in there. Solid but a bit uninspired. Reich's Colts offenses ranked ninth in scoring in 2020 and 2021, so the offense should be solid. He's got talent around him. Players respect him. But does this hire scream championship?