NFL wild-card weekend has kicked off and still includes some intriguing games, including Baltimore at Cincinnati and Dallas at Tampa Bay. Let's dive into each matchup, focusing on specific keys that can help teams advance to the divisional round. Based on what I've seen on tape and with some help from the numbers, we can get a better feel for how coaching staffs will scheme for personnel, game situation and coverage. These are my game plans for all 12 teams.
Here are the game plan keys -- on both sides of the ball -- for the rest of the games, along with the ESPN Football Power Index projections for each matchup.
Jump to a matchup:
BAL-CIN | DAL-TB
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
When: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: CIN -8.5 (40.5)
FPI prediction: CIN by 12
How the Ravens can beat the Bengals
Run the ball out of 22 personnel.
The Ravens are another team with injury problems at quarterback, with Lamar Jackson (left knee) not practicing and Tyler Huntley dealing with tendinitis in his right throwing shoulder. They might even have to start undrafted rookie Anthony Brown, though Huntley practiced Thursday. Let's focus on the Baltimore rushing attack here. The Ravens have to go big, expanding out of 22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR). Run outside zone against the Bengals' five-man fronts, or lean on gap concepts (GT power).
In the two previous games against the Bengals this season, the Ravens rushed for 122 yards on 22 personnel runs. They have an opportunity to control the offensive tempo with running back J.K. Dobbins -- who was rested in Week 18 -- seeing heavy volume.
Trust their defensive coverage structure.
The Ravens played zone coverage versus quarterback Joe Burrow this season. Two-high shells, Cover 2 and Quarters -- with limited pressure. They had a blitz rate under 11% in both games, leaning on Cover 2 in Week 5 (48.3% of coverage snaps) and a mix of Cover 2 (33.3%) and Quarters (17.8%) in the regular-season finale. Why? To limit Burrow's ability to push the ball down the field while closing the windows on the deep in-breakers, which are staples of the Bengals' offense.
While Burrow hit some one-on-ones outside the numbers in Week 18, the Ravens forced him to take the unders with linebacker Roquan Smith running the pipe in two-deep and safeties capping the vertical routes. In those two games, Burrow had QBRs of 32.0 and 23.5, respectively, two of his three worst totals of the entire season.
How the Bengals can beat the Ravens
Execute their base pass concepts.
Given what we said about the Ravens' coverage plan above, let's focus on the Bengals' base three/five-step concepts because they run them better than any team in the league. Slant flat, curl flat, stick, smash and follow. Burrow can see it fast here, anticipating the windows and delivering the ball with rhythm.
On throws of 10 air yards or less against the Ravens this season, Burrow completed 22 of 34 passes. If the Ravens want to drop seven in coverage and play top-down in the secondary, Burrow has to take the throws that are available. And a slant ball to Ja'Marr Chase can turn into plus-20 quickly, given his high-end catch-and-run traits.
Have a plan for Mark Andrews in critical game situations.
The Baltimore tight end rested in Week 18, but he torched the Bengals in the early-season matchup. Cincinnati needs a plan to limit his production on third downs and in the red zone. Yes, Jackson played in that Week 5 game. I get it. But if we study Andrews' route tree -- he caught eight of 10 targets for 89 yards and touchdown -- Cincinnati has to account for him at all times.
Now, we know cornerback Tre Flowers is the matchup for Andrews out of dime. Flowers has a long frame and the ability to press. But if we are looking at the Bengals in base or nickel, I would like to see more dedicated doubles and brackets. Take away the over routes and the seam balls. They can't let Andrews beat them -- especially with an inexperienced quarterback targeting him.
(5) Dallas Cowboys at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
Line: DAL -2.5 (45.5)
FPI prediction: DAL by 6
How the Cowboys can beat the Bucs
Hi-Lo the Bucs' second-level defenders with CeeDee Lamb.
The Bucs played Cover 3 on 32.8% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fourth most in the NFL. It's their staple coverage. The Cowboys can cause issues here with Lamb on interior Hi-Lo concepts to create conflict for the Bucs' second-level defenders in three-deep zone.
Here, Dallas can stretch the Tampa Bay defense horizontally, giving Dak Prescott a two-level read with Lamb as a prime target on crossers and overs. Force the linebackers to squat in their drops, with Lamb now working to open grass. Catch and go.
Scheme Micah Parsons in one-on-one pass-rush matchups.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn does an excellent job with his fronts in terms of creating pass-rush matchups. We'll see this Monday night with Parsons, who racked up 13.5 sacks while leading the league with 74 total pressures. Quinn has to scheme to occupy the guard to give Parsons a matchup against Bucs left tackle Donovan Smith, or align Parsons inside as a stand-up defensive tackle to go to work on the interior of the Tampa Bay offensive line, which is not a strength.
Don't forget about the stunts that create open rush lanes for Parsons to use his top-tier short-area speed to get home. If you're Dallas, you want to put Parsons in the most disruptive alignments possible to get Tom Brady off platform on every dropback.
How the Bucs can beat the Cowboys
More power play-action concepts for Tom Brady.
Brady led all quarterbacks with 154 passing attempts over the final four weeks of the season. Even with the heavy volume, though, Brady attempted only 25 play-action passes during that stretch. In fact, for the season, the Bucs ranked last in the NFL in percentage of plays using a play-fake (15.1%).
I would like to see offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich get back to the play-action concepts, especially with a guard pulling to influence linebackers. This will open those windows for Brady to target star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at the second level, plus it creates a tight end element in the Bucs' pass game with Cade Otton running the quick seams and benders. And looking at this Dallas pass rush, play-action is an answer with Brady driving that ball once he hits the top of his drop.
Use late secondary rotation against Prescott.
Prescott threw at least one interception in each of his final seven regular-season games. That's not good enough, and the tape tells us he isn't seeing the field cleanly. This is an opportunity for the Bucs to make him work post-snap with late rotation from single-high and split-safety shells.
We know Tampa Bay is a zone-heavy defense -- 65% of its coverage snaps in the regular season -- and it will bring pressure. Send five rushers, with zone principles in the back end. Let's see if the Bucs can disguise those blitz looks and spin the secondary (at the snap) to get to Cover 3 and Quarters while putting their second- and third-level defenders in a position to steal a couple from Prescott.
Earlier games from this weekend
(5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: LAC -2 (47.5)
FPI prediction: JAX by 3
How the Chargers can beat the Jaguars
Take more deep ball shots off play-action.
Justin Herbert led all quarterbacks with 215 passing attempts off play-action in the regular season. His yards per attempt on those throws? Just 7.6, which ranked 23rd. Could we see an increase in schemed shot plays against this Jaguars secondary? This is an opportunity for offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and the Chargers to use max protection off play-action -- or boot Herbert to the edges -- with vertical reads in the pattern.
Herbert could cut it loose down the field against a defense that gave up 25 receptions on throws of 20 or more air yards during the regular season, the 10th most in the league.
Match Derwin James in coverage against Evan Engram.
The Chargers played single-high man coverage on 40.1% of defensive snaps during the regular season, second most in the NFL. And given the route traits of the Jacksonville tight end -- and how he is used on quicks, unders and second-level throws to get him the ball with open grass to attack -- I want to see this matchup with James.
The Chargers safety has the lower-body agility and coverage skills to stick with Engram, who has been targeted at least eight times in three of his past five games. Limiting Engram is the best way for the Chargers to disrupt Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing attack.
How the Jaguars can beat the Chargers
Target the Chargers' sub-package fronts in the run game.
Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has 99 carries for 615 yards out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) this season. That's good for 6.2 yards per carry. And Etienne has 13 rushes of at least 10 yards in those three-wide receiver sets. Stretch it to the edges here on zone, get downhill or run one-back power to dig out some daylight for Etienne.
The matchup fits against a Chargers defense that surrendered 5.4 yards per carry against 11 personnel this season. Etienne had only seven carries in the Week 18 win over the Titans. Expect that number to jump Saturday night.
Find Keenan Allen on third down.
Jacksonville has to account for the Chargers receiver on third down when game-planning for this matchup. He's going to line up all over the field, in reduced formations and in the stack or bunch sets. And he'll be put in motion. Allen can win one-on-one due to his savvy route running traits, and Los Angeles will scheme for him to attack zone coverage with middle-of-the-field sit routes off the mesh concept, flood and levels.
Over his past four games, Allen has caught 10 of 13 targets on third downs, converting seven of those receptions for first downs. We know the Jags can go man heavy on third downs, playing Cover 1 on over 58% of coverage snaps in their past four games. Let's see if Jacksonville matches or travels with cornerbacks Darious Williams or Tre Herndon, and I would think about using bracket techniques here, too. The Jaguars can't allow Allen to get loose and make himself available to Herbert.
(7) Seattle Seahawks at (2) San Francisco 49ers
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Line: SF -9.5 (42.5)
FPI prediction: SF by 9
Note: The 49ers won 41-23.
How the Seahawks can beat the 49ers
Expand the 49ers' zone coverages in empty sets.
Seattle has to stretch San Francisco's core zone scheme, aligning DK Metcalf as a slot target out of multiple personnel groupings. In the Week 15 head-to-head matchup against San Francisco -- a 21-13 49ers win -- Geno Smith completed eight of his nine throws out of empty sets. Smith can thrive with quick throws. With Metcalf aligned inside, the Seahawks can scheme more stick routes, speed outs and seams to their No. 1 target. Smith needs to work the anticipated voids here, moving the chains on third downs against a defense that played zone on over 65% of coverage snaps the last time these two teams played.
Challenge Brock Purdy with man coverage.
In Week 15, the Seahawks played man-to-man on 53% of their coverage snaps against the rookie seventh-round quarterback. Yes, they gave up a couple of plays to George Kittle. One on a savvy, misdirection screen concept for a score, and another on a busted look in the secondary. But Purdy was just 6-of-14 against man coverage in that game, compared to 11-of-12 against zone coverage.
If Seattle's defense tried to sit in zone against this offense, San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan would scheme up open voids for Purdy. That's what Shanahan does. Give more press-man coverage, with tighter-window throws for Purdy -- and defensive backs with their eyes on their work.
How the 49ers can beat the Seahawks
Run split-back counter schemes with Christian McCaffrey.
In addition to racking up targets in the pass game, the rushing script for McCaffrey will include a mix of inside/outside zone and gap schemes. We saw that in the December matchup, with McCaffrey logging 26 carries for 108 yards. It's the split-back concepts I'm focused on here, however, with counter action that brings Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk to the point of attack as lead blockers.
Shanahan has created the league's best run scheme because of the personnel, misdirection and gap aspects that carve out daylight for McCaffrey to push the ball up the field. And that same backfield action creates play-pass opportunities for Purdy to throw in-breaking concepts with the linebackers thinking run.
Scheme the defensive fronts to create interior pressure vs. Smith.
San Francisco defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is one of the NFL's best at scheming his fronts out of four- and five-man surfaces, with stunts to create interior rush lanes. This is where the 49ers can loop defenders to the A/B gaps, which will limit Smith's ability to step up and reset into a throwing window.
The 49ers had just one sack in Week 15, but they did have 11 quarterback hits. They have to create pressure with their front and play with zone discipline and depth in the back end. That's the foundation of Ryans' system.
(7) Miami Dolphins at (2) Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: BUF -13 (43.5)
FPI prediction: BUF by 23
How the Dolphins can beat the Bills
Manipulate coverage for Skylar Thompson.
This is going to be tough for Miami, with quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa unavailable and Teddy Bridgewater questionable. Thompson, a rookie seventh-round pick, is headed toward his second straight start. Coach Mike McDaniel has to create more rhythm throws for Thompson to simplify things for him. One possibility is to target defined windows that help with timing to try to manipulate the Bills' split-safety looks.
Against the Jets in Week 18, Thompson completed 17 of 25 passes against zone coverage, and he saw split-safety coverage on more than 69% of his dropbacks. Think three-level reads into the boundary here, with spacing concepts that force underneath defenders to widen in their drops to create that window for the quarterback. The Dolphins have to give Thompson easy throws.
Limit Cover 3 reps against Josh Allen.
The Dolphins are a heavy single-high safety defense, using a lot of man-free and Cover 3 (three-deep zone). As we saw in the Week 15 head-to-head matchup in Buffalo, Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey had answers for zone coverage, as Allen went 12-of-15 with deep overs, in-breakers and play-action concepts leading the way.
As the Dolphins countered in the second half with more man coverage (75% of snaps), Allen's numbers dipped; he completed just 5 of 13 throws against man-to-man coverage. Miami has to play some zone looks based on the game situation, but it should be in man the majority of the time.
How the Bills can beat the Dolphins
Throw the glance routes off play-action and RPOs.
Dorsey will have a deep game plan for his passing offense on Sunday, no doubt. But watch for the glance route -- sometimes called a skinny post -- with wide receiver Stefon Diggs in a reduced split. The Bills can attack the natural windows in Miami's single-high coverages. Thrown off play-action and RPOs, this allows Allen to pull those second-level defenders downhill before delivering a rocket ball to Diggs when he breaks inside. The glance route is one of the Bills' top concepts when they get into the red area of the field.
Allen went 9-of-13 on play-action/RPOs in that December game. He's tough to stop when he gets in a groove.
Lock and press Tyreek Hill to the backside of 3x1 sets.
The Bills can't give Hill a free release off the ball. Whether they're in zone, Quarters/Cover 3 or man-free coverage, this is where cornerback Tre'Davious White aligns in a press position to match against Hill to the backside of trips.
Yes, Hill won over the top in a one-on-one versus White for a touchdown in Week 15. It was a fade thrown in the high red zone. To disrupt the timing of the play -- especially if Thompson is the quarterback -- Buffalo must challenge Hill consistently with defenders in a position to reroute him at the line of scrimmage.
(6) New York Giants at (3) Minnesota Vikings
When: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Line: MIN -3 (48)
FPI prediction: MIN by 2
How the Giants can beat the Vikings
Attack the perimeter in the pass game.
This is another rematch from a December game, as the Vikings beat the Giants 27-24 in Week 16. In that game, quarterback Daniel Jones targeted the perimeter matchups against the Minnesota corners, completing 11 of 15 passes for 115 yards on throws outside of the numbers. This is where he can challenge Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley -- in man-to-man coverage or Quarters -- on both play-action and fade balls. With wideouts Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton, Jones has targets with the vertical juice to create explosive plays. They need to hit on a few of them Sunday.
Challenge Justin Jefferson at the line of scrimmage.
If you go through each of Jefferson's 16 targets in that December matchup, you won't see consistent disruption at the line of scrimmage from the Giants. I'm talking about press-man or a cloud corner in a position to reroute the star wide receiver. Jefferson, who caught 12 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown, simply got too much free access to the ball. And he's one of the quickest wideouts into his route stem -- he can easily slip man coverage and find soft voids against zone.
Let's see if Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale tries to get his guys to disrupt Jefferson's timing by limiting Jefferson's ability to get off the ball clean from both outside and slot alignments.
How the Vikings can beat the Giants
Target T.J. Hockenson against the Giants' pressure schemes.
Martindale is going to heat up Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. Just watch. In that Week 16 matchup, New York sent at least five rushers on 43.1% of the snaps. Pressure is a major part of the Giants' defensive identity. That's also why Hockenson can play a key role as a blitz outlet for Cousins, working the flats and unders. The tight end caught six of seven targets against the blitz for 47 yards in the previous matchup, converting three first downs and scoring a touchdown on a man-beater in the red zone. Get the ball out quickly to Hockenson here to beat pressure and move the sticks.
Win third downs on defense -- again.
The Vikings went more man-heavy under defensive coordinator Ed Donatell at the end of the regular season, and we saw that on third down against the Giants. Minnesota played man coverage on 90% of Daniel Jones' third-down dropbacks, in Cover 1 and 2-Man with some pressure sprinkled in. Jones struggled on those money downs, putting up a QBR of just 31.2, which is far below the league average. We could see a similar script from Donatell, with the Vikings spinning from a two-high shell to drop the weak safety as a robber -- which puts that safety in a position to cut crossers and in-breakers.