Let's preview the NFL playoffs by taking an expansive look at how the bracket could play out. I'll be using what we know about the first six matchups in the wild-card round to pick winners for this weekend's games, examine the matchups those wins would produce in the divisional round, and so on. In the end, I'm going to pick a Super Bowl LVII matchup and a champion, and I'll be sticking with the prediction I made on "SportsCenter" before the season.
Now, before we get started, let me be clear: This will not be right. Getting all six wild-card matchups correct would be a small miracle, let alone correctly picking all 13 games. If you're reading this to get mad about who I pick, you're wasting your time. Instead, I'm trying to just examine how these matchups might play out and what we would be looking for if the two teams do actually play in the real postseason bracket.
Some matchups require a lengthy, exhaustive list of possibilities of analysis. Others can be summed up in a sentence or two. As we start in the AFC, two of this weekend's three games might be decided before they begin because of injured quarterbacks.
Jump to a round:
Wild-card weekend: NFC | AFC
Divisional round: NFC | AFC
Conference title games: NFC | AFC
Super Bowl LVII
AFC wild-card weekend
(7) Miami Dolphins at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -13 (43.5)
It seems academic to discuss this matchup if the Dolphins are starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback against the Bills. Brock Purdy has been magical for the 49ers, but his fellow rookie seventh-round pick has struggled in Miami. Thompson has played like a typical rookie late-rounder, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt and posting a 57.1% completion percentage across 105 pass attempts. Barring the truly unexpected, Thompson against this Bills defense is an unfair fight.
Getting Teddy Bridgewater back would make things a little fairer, given that the journeyman passer averaged 8.6 yards per attempt across 79 pass attempts this season. He missed Week 18 with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand, which doesn't seem conducive to playing. Coach Mike McDaniel said Wednesday that the Dolphins are preparing for Thompson to start, but it would hardly be a surprise if McDaniel turned to Bridgewater if the offense struggled to move the ball early.
Either way, this is unlikely to be a competitive game, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Bills were resting their starters at some point during the second half. Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 7.
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: CIN -8.5 (40.5)
Again, the conversation here is impacted by the quarterback situation for the road team. The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since the 2019 MVP suffered a knee injury in December, and there's no timetable for his return. Jackson just missed his 16th straight practice, and it's tough to believe he would flourish without practicing or playing for more than a month.
Tyler Huntley sat out Sunday's loss to these Bengals with a shoulder injury, but even a healthy Huntley hasn't done much for the offense. The Ravens have scored four offensive touchdowns in nearly five full games with Huntley at the helm. They've averaged minus-0.03 expected points added (EPA) per play with Huntley as their starter, which would rank 24th in the league over the entire season. Jackson would obviously be an upgrade on Huntley.
With a compromised quarterback situation, the Ravens' path to winning would require a career day from running back J.K. Dobbins and something similar to what the Steelers did in Week 1 against the Bengals with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Pittsburgh forced five turnovers and didn't give up the ball. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick took a pick-six to the house and blocked the would-be winning extra point with two seconds to go. Evan McPherson missed a 29-yard field goal in overtime, and Chris Boswell hit a 53-yarder on the final snap of the game to pull off an upset for the Steelers.
A healthy Jackson would give the Ravens a shot. Baltimore beat the Bengals 19-17 in Week 5 with one of its best defensive performances of the season, holding quarterback Joe Burrow to 6.2 yards per attempt and coming up with a goal-line stand in the second half. The defense could pull off that sort of game again, but it's difficult to imagine the offense making it to 19 points without a healthy Jackson. Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 7.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: LAC -2 (47.5)
Finally, two healthy quarterbacks! Of course, it wasn't for lack of trying, as Chargers coach Brandon Staley left Justin Herbert deep into a meaningless game with the Broncos in Week 18. Staley suggested before the contest he wanted to play his starters to preserve the momentum of their hot finish to the season, but when I looked at this premise in 2012, I found that teams that got hot in December didn't play any better than teams with similar résumés who played their best football in September and October. The Chargers also lost outright to Denver, so whatever momentum they had might now be lost.
At the same time, while the Jaguars celebrated a division title with a win over the injury-riddled Titans, it would be hard to argue they played well. Jacksonville allowed backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs to march up and down the field, and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense looked sloppy.
Both of these teams are better than what we saw in Week 18. The Jags blew out the Chargers by 28 points when these two squared off in Week 3, but that came one week after Herbert suffered a rib injury late in a loss to the Chiefs. Herbert was clearly compromised and turned the ball over twice, while the Jags limited Austin Ekeler to four carries for five yards. L.A. edge rusher Joey Bosa and left tackle Rashawn Slater also exited the game with serious injuries, with Slater sidelined for the season and Bosa only just returning.
One of the key players for the Jaguars that day was running back James Robinson, who had 17 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. I'm not sure they really ever replaced Robinson as the power back in their lineup after trading him to the Jets, as Travis Etienne has been more of a threat around the edges. Jacksonville's strength is its speed on offense, but the Chargers have one of the smallest, fastest defenses in the league. With Bosa back in the lineup and Jaguars tackle Cam Robinson done for the season, I'm worried about Jacksonville's ability to protect Lawrence against a defense that ranks eighth in expected points added (EPA) per play since Week 14.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, have had the league's best defense over that time frame by EPA per play. Finishing the season with matchups against Zach Wilson, Davis Mills and Dobbs certainly helps, but Jacksonville forced four takeaways against Ryan Tannehill and two against Dak Prescott. Jacksonville has allowed fewer first downs per rush attempt than anybody else in the league, and it limited franchise torturer Derrick Henry to one first down on 30 rush attempts a week ago. Do the Jags have the best defense in football? Probably not, but they're a lot better than people think.
These two quarterbacks are capable of putting on a fireworks show, but it's more likely we will see a low-scoring game that comes down to a turnover, a fourth-down decision or special teams play. The Chargers have the advantage there, as they've committed the fourth-fewest giveaways, while Cameron Dicker has gone 19-of-20 on field goals and 22-of-22 on extra points.
I'm tempted to suggest Lawrence follows in Joe Burrow's footsteps as the second-year breakout quarterback who pushes his team much deeper in the playoffs than anyone expected, but Herbert and the Chargers have the slight edge here. Prediction: Chargers 13, Jaguars 10.
NFC wild-card weekend
(7) Seattle Seahawks at (2) San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: SF -9.5 (42.5)
This has not been a good matchup for the Seahawks, who lost twice in this series during the regular season, by a combined score of 48-20. The 49ers dominated the first game in Week 2 despite losing quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending injury in the first quarter then led comfortably for most of the sequel before a Noah Fant touchdown brought Seattle within eight points with 3:35 left.
Defensively, the Seahawks aren't a good fit to stop what the 49ers want to do, especially with how San Francisco's offense is operating now. Seattle finished the season 25th in rush defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). It allowed a league-high 7.9 yards per attempt on passes to running backs and tight ends, positions new 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has loved to target since entering the lineup, and that was mostly before losing starting linebacker Jordyn Brooks to a torn ACL in December. The 49ers generate more yards after catch than any other team, and the Seahawks allow the second-most yards after catch.
This also isn't a great matchup for Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, whose decision-making has gotten spottier as the season has progressed. He turned the ball over just four times across the first eight games, but he has added 11 more over the back nine. He threw two interceptions against the Rams on Sunday and got away with what would have been a pick-six when linebacker Quentin Lake dropped the ball.
Now, Smith goes up against a 49ers defense that intercepted 20 passes, tying them with the Steelers for the league lead. The Niners are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which is just behind the Titans for the league's best mark. Seattle's core of playmakers, Smith included, is good enough to compete with any team when it is playing well. The Seahawks might make it a closer game than the first two matchups, but they match up too poorly against what the 49ers do best. Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 17.
(6) New York Giants at (3) Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: MIN -3 (48)
The battle of "nobody believes in us!" pits two of the four teams that advanced to the postseason with a negative point differential. The Giants went 9-7-1 while being outscored by a combined six points, while the Vikings were 13-4 and outscored by three. Just one of the 53 teams that has advanced to the playoffs with a negative point differential have made it to the Super Bowl, and it's a team near and dear to this matchup: the 2011 Giants.
Point differential might undersell how pessimistic advanced metrics are on the Vikings. DVOA pegs the Vikings as the league's sixth-worst team. Football Outsiders has the Vikings playing worse on a snap-by-snap basis than the Broncos and Rams. Weighted DVOA, which places extra emphasis on how a team plays later in the season, actually has the Vikings sinking even deeper to 28th.
The Giants are just 2-5-1 in the second half of the season, so it would be tough to argue that their wins over the Colts and Commanders have them hitting their stride. They went 2-7 against teams with a winning record for the season and were outscored by more than a touchdown per game in those contests.
The third down and red zone defense that fueled New York's success during the first half of the season has mostly evaporated. Don Martindale's defense has dropped from second in third-down conversion rate to 13th and from second in red zone conversion rate to 26th. There's a chance the Giants can control the line of scrimmage with defensive linemen Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, especially now that star Vikings right tackle Brian O'Neill is on injured reserve with a calf injury, but the formula that got New York to 7-2 is gone.
Its one saving grace might be the play of quarterback Daniel Jones, who has thrived at the end of the season. Over the final four weeks, his 78.2 QBR has been the best in football, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Jones has continued to yield significant value as a scrambler. While he is generating a below-average 6.8 yards per attempt on a league-low 6.0 air yards per throw, he has done an excellent job of protecting the ball.
One of the exceptions for Jones and the Giants? Their Week 16 loss to the Vikings. Jones threw an interception, tight end Daniel Bellinger lost a fumble and the Vikings blocked a punt in the fourth quarter. Those plays led to 10 critical points in a 27-24 Vikings victory. It would be tough for Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell to count on three takeaways again, but this should be a close game. And in close games, well, you know what happens. Prediction: Vikings 26, Giants 24.
(5) Dallas Cowboys at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
Spread: DAL -2.5 (45.5)
The Buccaneers are the fourth and final playoff team with a negative point differential, and it's not in the single digits, either; they've been outscored by 45 points this season. Football Outsiders ranks them 17th in DVOA, while ESPN's Football Power Index pegs them as the league's 11th-best team.
On paper, this should be a mismatch, as the 12-5 Cowboys rank No. 6 in DVOA. Sunday's ugly loss to the Commanders, though, solidified concerns that Dallas is struggling. Over the final five games, it needed a goal-line stand to beat the Texans, lost to the Jaguars, narrowly topped teams starting backup quarterbacks (Eagles and Titans) then got blown off the field by the Commanders in rookie quarterback Sam Howell's first career start.
Dallas' offense has been dysfunctional over that stretch. Dak Prescott has thrown 11 interceptions in the past seven games. After coming into the campaign with a career interception rate of 1.7%, he has thrown picks on 3.8% of his passes this season. The offensive line started to sputter when right tackle Terence Steele went down with a season-ending torn ACL and fell apart once center Tyler Biadasz suffered a high ankle sprain. Steele was replaced by Tyron Smith, but the longtime left tackle is playing out of position. Smith has allowed 1.5 sacks in four games, which would typically be a full season of work for the future Hall of Famer.
Over the past three weeks, the Cowboys' running game has slowed to a trickle, running the ball 90 times for just 266 yards. The blocking is a problem, but the running backs have gained a league-low 1.0 yards after first contact over that stretch and produced minus-83 rush yards over expectation (RYOE). Tony Pollard has been slowed by a thigh injury, while Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed by time. Elliott is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry while generating minus-58 RYOE, the sixth-worst total in the league this season. If Pollard doesn't return to form, the Cowboys might turn into a CeeDee Lamb-or-bust offense.
The Bucs, meanwhile, might finally be getting back a key component of their offense if star center Ryan Jensen returns from his knee injury. Jensen hasn't played this season, so he would unquestionably be rusty, but even a limited version would likely be an upgrade on Robert Hainsey, who was injured in Week 18.
Tom Brady finally unlocked his connection with Mike Evans in a three-touchdown day against the Panthers in Week 17. I'm not sure the Buccaneers really did anything different outside of targeting a pair of backup corners, but I do think that's one way for them to go after the Cowboys. Dan Quinn's defense is the sixth-best unit on short and intermediate passes, but it ranks 21st in QBR allowed when teams throw deep. Brady needs to get time to throw those passes, but he can identify those matchups before the snap and get the ball out quickly to nullify Dallas' excellent pass rush.
I'm just not sure this is a great matchup for the Cowboys. You have to go back to Week 1 when Brady and the Bucs beat the Cowboys 19-3. The game was probably most remembered for Prescott breaking his finger, but even before that happened, Tampa Bay had shut down Dallas' offense. The Cowboys scored at least 17 points in each of their next 15 games.
On that September day, Leonard Fournette had his best game of the season for the Bucs, carrying the ball 21 times for 127 yards. Tampa Bay's rushing attack has been putrid since, but Jensen's return would help the Bucs on the interior. Tampa Bay isn't going to be great running the ball, but even a passable rushing attack might be competitive with what the Cowboys can offer.
If there's a reason to think the Bucs might be back, it's not the offense. It's the defense. Todd Bowles' unit forced just five turnovers over an 11-game span in midseason. It should be no surprise that the Bucs improved once they started forcing those turnovers again, having created six in wins over the Cardinals and Panthers. They could force a couple of more against the Cowboys and pull off a home upset. Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 13.
AFC divisional round
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Brandon Staley's reward for winning his first postseason game is a matchup against the Chiefs, who swept the Chargers in a pair of three-point games this season. It took a 75-yard, 69-second drive in the final minutes of the game from Patrick Mahomes & Co. to pull out a comeback victory at SoFi Stadium in November, although the September contest wasn't quite as close as the 27-24 score.
Here's my annual reminder that the old cliché about struggling to beat a team three times in the same season doesn't actually mean anything. Since 1970, teams that have swept an opponent with two victories in the regular season have gone 14-9 when they played that opponent a third time in the postseason. Admittedly, last season didn't exactly aid my case, as the Rams were swept by the 49ers before beating them in the NFC Championship Game, but history tells us there's nothing unique about beating a team a third time.
Are there reasons to think that the Chargers have a better shot this time around? Probably. Justin Herbert suffered his rib injury late in the first loss to the Chiefs. In the second game, the Chargers were without Joey Bosa and only got six snaps out of wideout Mike Williams, who aggravated his ankle injury. This season, Herbert averaged 7.1 yards per attempt with Williams on the field but just 6.2 yards per throw without him. Williams suffered an injury in the Week 18 game and had to be carted off and helped to the bus, but reports suggest he'll be able to play in the postseason.
The Chargers also have a defender who has been able to stop tight end Travis Kelce in the past, at least for a period of time. Safety Derwin James once had one of the most dramatic on/off splits I've ever seen in a game versus Kelce in December 2021:
Kelce with James on the field (26 def snaps): One catch for 14 yards
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 17, 2021
Kelce w/o James on the field (41 def snaps): Nine catches for 177 yards, 2 TD https://t.co/JCPEiNsUd3
At the same time, James was on the field when these two teams last played, and Kelce went for 115 yards and three touchdowns in a matchup in which the Chiefs didn't have JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Chargers have the personnel on defense to keep this close and tip the scales in their direction if Mahomes has a sloppy game, but I trust Kansas City coach Andy Reid's ability to find answers against a familiar rival and his 28-6 record coming off of a bye. It took four K.C. turnovers for the Chargers to win at Arrowhead Stadium last season; they won't get that sort of perfect storm again. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 24.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals at (2) Buffalo Bills
We get the full rematch of the game that was canceled after Damar Hamlin's life-threatening cardiac arrest. The Bengals led 7-3 when that Week 17 matchup was stopped in what appeared to be developing into a titanic battle of offenses. Neither team seemed capable of creating steady pressure without their key pass-rushers; the Bills were without Von Miller, while the Bengals didn't have Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson was playing with a broken wrist.
Hendrickson somehow had two sacks on 18 dropbacks in the Week 18 win over the Ravens, while Hubbard played a full complement of snaps. Miller is done for the season, which is an advantage for the Bengals. Buffalo's pass defense has actually been better without him in the lineup, a testament to its depth, coaching and improved play from the secondary, as corner Tre'Davious White has returned to the lineup. White allowed a 29-yard pass interference penalty on the opening play of the game against the Bengals; he has to hold up against Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins for the Bills to have a chance of slowing down the offense.
The Bengals are better than the sum of their parts, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has earned a reputation for having counterpunches and making adjustments after last season's stunning turnaround in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs. This is a disciplined and fast defense, and one of the ways that shows up in the numbers is how it inhibits scrambles. Despite facing Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Marcus Mariota and Lamar Jackson this season, the Bengals only allowed 18 scramble attempts, the third fewest of any team.
With Chidobe Awuzie done for the season, I'm not sure the Bengals have a cover corner who can handle wideout Stefon Diggs, so unless Eli Apple fancies his chances, I would expect them to stay away from man defense. Cincinnati also has had the eighth-best defense when playing zone coverage, so it would make sense to drop back, take away Josh Allen's running ability and force the Bills to slowly work the ball down the field before hoping it can come up with stops inside the red zone.
Allen's propensity for turning the ball over inside the 20 after starting his career with a perfect record of protecting the ball in the red zone has become a serious problem, but it also is one of the only ways to stop the Bills. I write often about how red zone performance fluctuates from year to year, and that could be the case during the postseason, but I also think Allen is just a supremely confident passer in any situation, to a fault. Sometimes, that sort of hero ball leads to spectacular touchdowns on passes no quarterback should attempt. Other times, his turnovers lead directly to Bills' losses.
Turnovers figure more heavily into this game on the other side of the ball. Cincinnati's white-hot stretch to close the 2021 regular season and through its run to the Super Bowl was driven by a drastic reduction in turnovers. After giving up the ball 21 times across 13 games through their 7-6 start, Joe Burrow and the offense proceeded to turn the ball over just twice over the ensuing eight weeks. They went 6-2 in those games; one of the losses was a meaningless Week 18 start from Brandon Allen, while the other was the Super Bowl defeat against the Rams.
While the effect hasn't been quite as pronounced, the Bengals protected the football during their eight-game winning streak to end this regular season. They are 9-2 when they either don't turn the ball over or only give it away once. They're 2-2 otherwise; the wins included 37-30 over the Steelers and 22-18 over the Patriots, after Cincinnati came up with a forced fumble of its own on its 5-yard line with 1:07 to go.
The Bills have forced 27 giveaways, the fourth most of any team this season. Leslie Frazier's defense has created two or more takeaways in 10 of Buffalo's 16 games, with the Bills going 9-1 in the process. (The only loss was that game against the Vikings.) The Bills might struggle to protect the football themselves, but they can force a turnover or two and help create some short fields for this offense.
The other factor is the one Bengals fans might dwell on for years to come. The abbreviated Week 17 game between these two teams took place in Cincinnati, but the rematch will be in Orchard Park. Burrow is a much better passer at home than he has been on the road; since the start of 2021, he ranks seventh in QBR at home but just 18th in away games. The Bengals' offense drops from fourth in EPA per play to ninth.
We know Burrow can do it in the postseason on the road because he beat the Titans and Chiefs and nearly toppled the Rams in their home stadium in the Super Bowl. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals beat Buffalo, and they deserve to be right alongside the Bills and Chiefs in the top tier of teams in the AFC. It's just easier for me to imagine a scenario in which Buffalo and frigid conditions in western New York force Burrow into an unrecoverable mistake. Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 24.
NFC divisional round
(3) Minnesota Vikings at (2) San Francisco 49ers
How did the Vikings do this season against teams that finished in the top 10 in DVOA?
Lost 24-7 to the Eagles in Week 2
Won 28-24 over the Lions in Week 3 after Detroit failed on a fourth-and-1 and missed a 54-yard field goal on consecutive fourth-quarter possessions
Beat a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa 24-16 in Week 6
Beat the Bills 33-30 in Week 10 after Buffalo fumbled away a kneel-down inside its own 2-yard line
Lost 40-3 to the Cowboys in Week 11
Lost 34-23 to the Lions in Week 14
Minnesota went 3-3, was outscored by 50 points and needed some fortuitous timing to rack up those victories. I'll keep this one simple: I don't think the Vikings stand a chance in San Francisco, even with a third-string quarterback on the other side of the field. Prediction: 49ers 34, Vikings 10.
(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Philadelphia Eagles
On paper, this divisional round game is also a mismatch. The Eagles were the NFC's best team from start to finish in 2022. They went 14-1 with quarterback Jalen Hurts in the lineup, and while they faced a bit of a late-season scare when Hurts was sidelined by a shoulder injury, they clinched home-field advantage with a victory over the Giants in Week 18. He earned another valuable week of rest for his ailing shoulder, while the Buccaneers will be forced to travel to play in front of a raucous crowd in South Philly.
While the extra week of rest will help, there are legitimate worries the Eagles won't be back to their old selves when we hit the divisional round. Hurts threw the ball perfectly fine in Sunday's win over the Giants' backups, but coach Nick Sirianni took the designed runs out of the playbook. The Eagles only used Hurts on one designed run, a sneak for a first down in the third quarter. He scrambled several times and would do so again against a blitz-happy Buccaneers defense, but if the designed runs are limited or out of the playbook when he returns, it removes a key component of this Eagles offense.
Sirianni admitted this week that Hurts was sore coming out of the Giants game and wouldn't say whether he will have to play through pain this postseason. Hurts isn't the only offensive player operating at less than 100 percent. Running back Miles Sanders has been slowed by a knee issue. After averaging 5.2 yards per carry over the first 13 games, he averaged just 3.7 yards per pop last month and lost two fumbles.
Perhaps more critically, Eagles star right tackle Lane Johnson left the Cowboys loss with an abdomen injury and missed the rest of the regular season. He is reportedly putting off surgery to return for the postseason, so while nobody doubts his toughness, it's unclear whether he'll be anywhere close to 100 percent. We've seen quarterback after quarterback decline precipitously without Johnson on the field for Philadelphia over the past decade, and the Gardner Minshew-led offense fell flat after the lineman's departure against Dallas and in the subsequent game against New Orleans.
General manager Howie Roseman has done an admirable job building this roster; the Eagles might be the best team in the league on paper, but we've seen them drop off once key contributors leave the field. The Cowboys won that Week 16 game by going after the replacements for slot corner Avonte Maddox. The Commanders ran through a defense missing first-round pick Jordan Davis. The Saints racked up six sacks on Minshew without Johnson in the lineup. If the Eagles have players who are either missing or not playing at their normal level, we've seen lesser teams beat them.
Can the Bucs pull that off? Philadelphia's core strength on defense is its pass rush, and we've seen Tom Brady neutralize that deep rotation of rushers before. He went 63-of-79 for 568 yards with four touchdowns and an interception in two victories over the Eagles last season, getting sacked four times in the process.
This Buccaneers offense isn't as good as the units in 2020 or 2021, but Brady can get the ball out quickly enough to help slow down the rush. While Philadelphia's addition of wideout A.J. Brown and Hurts' further development will make the Bucs' life more difficult, they might still present a tough matchup. Hurts is the league's third-best quarterback against four-man rushes, but he is 13th in QBR against the blitz. Todd Bowles blitzes as often as any defensive playcaller in football.
There is one big upset in every postseason. Here's mine. Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Eagles 17.
AFC Championship Game
(2) Buffalo Bills vs. (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Forget not knowing whether a quarterback is going to play; we don't yet know where this game will take place. The NFL designated a possible Bills-Chiefs matchup as a neutral-site game as a result of what happened in Week 17, but it has yet to announce a venue. Two rumored locations are already out, as the domed stadiums in Detroit and Indianapolis will both be unavailable. (Note: The NFL announced Thursday that it would play the game in Atlanta.)
I'm not sure either team would benefit from playing indoors or outdoors. The Bills and Chiefs are the most pass-happy teams in the league. They would both prefer to play at home in front of their own fans, of course, but it isn't as if the two teams play such different styles that one would gain a competitive advantage from being indoors or outdoors.
There's no big geographic difference, either, because both these teams have fans who will travel. Remember: Bills fans flocked to Detroit amid a massive snowstorm to fill up Ford Field against the Browns in Week 11. I don't think the Bills Mafia is going to stay home if the AFC Championship Game ends up in Las Vegas or Los Angeles.
Leaving all that aside, this should be another classic. Bills vs. Chiefs in the 2020 playoffs resulted in a comfortable Kansas City victory. The 2021 postseason rematch delivered one of the most exhilarating fourth quarters in league history. The Chiefs have won both playoff games and the regular-season matchup between the two in 2020, but the Bills blew out the Chiefs in October 2021 at Arrowhead and beat them again in Kansas City this past October.
Both of these teams responded to that playoff classic by shopping last offseason. The Bills, who only sacked Patrick Mahomes once in 25 dropbacks after halftime, tried to add the sort of star pass-rusher who could blow up plays immediately by signing Von Miller. Likewise, after futilely chasing Josh Allen around on a series of key plays in the second half, the Chiefs supplemented their pass rush by signing Carlos Dunlap and using a first-round pick on George Karlaftis.
Unfortunately, you know what happens to best-laid plans. Miller is out for the season with a torn ACL. Micah Hyde, the team's star safety, has been sidelined for most of the campaign by a neck injury. Damar Hamlin was his replacement, which has forced the Bills to team up Jordan Poyer with third-string option Dean Marlowe. Marlowe started the season with the Falcons before returning to Buffalo for a second stint; 68 of his 69 defensive snaps with the Bills came in the Week 18 win over the Patriots. Hyde's window to return to the team was activated this week, but if Hyde can't go deeper into the postseason, Marlowe would be an obvious target for Andy Reid.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are relatively healthy; their most prominent player on injured reserve is running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who lost his role in the lineup to Isiah Pacheco before suffering a high ankle sprain. Frank Clark strained his groin in Week 18, but the edge rusher is expected to return after the bye week. A lot can happen between now and a would-be AFC Championship Game, but the Chiefs will probably enter the postseason as the healthiest team.
One other move the Chiefs made, at least in part as a response to their playoff loss against the Bengals, was to diversify their receiving corps. They traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and replaced him with a few players. In addition to Travis Kelce, they can call on Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and the returning Mecole Hardman at wide receiver. Jerick McKinnon has become the receiving back Edwards-Helaire never turned into, scoring eight receiving touchdowns over the final six games. Tight ends Noah Gray and Blake Bell are threats to catch passes when they enter the lineup.
The Chiefs have adapted on offense by going to larger personnel groupings. They played two or more tight ends on 41% of their dropbacks this season, up from 28%. It has worked, but it's not a great fit for a matchup with the Bills. Buffalo has the league's second-best defense by QBR when teams line up with two or more tight ends. It ranks 13th with one tight end on the field.
The Bills almost always play out of nickel looks, so the Chiefs aren't going to force Buffalo to change its personnel, but they need to use the added size from those groupings to run the ball effectively. One of the reasons the Chiefs lost to Cincinnati last postseason was their refusal to simply run against light boxes in short yardage during the second half. Reid is a genius -- and Kansas City throws the ball as often as it does for a reason -- but he can help keep his defense fresh by controlling the clock on offense. Edwards-Helaire had nine carries for 33 yards the first time these two teams played; Pacheco's ability to run between the tackles and punish lighter boxes is going to be important if they play again.
Allen, meanwhile, forces Steve Spagnuolo into a difficult quandary. The Chief's defensive coordinator loves to blitz, but that typically means man coverage behind, and Allen is the league's best at scrambling for easy gains when teams play man. Defenses can play fire zones -- Allen ranks 29th in QBR when teams blitz and play zone coverage behind -- but that leaves huge swaths of space for an inexperienced secondary to cover and significant opportunities for yards after catch.
The other quandary for the Chiefs is that their pass defense simply hasn't been very good. They rank 22nd in QBR allowed and 26th against the shotgun formation, where Allen will spend plenty of time. They're the league's best pass defense when they blitz and create pressure, but they have the NFL's worst QBR when they don't pressure the opposing quarterback. Buffalo's offensive line has been inconsistent this season, but the team did get back center Mitch Morse from a concussion for the win over the Patriots in Week 18.
I don't think either of these teams will have trouble moving the ball, which turns this into a battle of how each performs in the red zone. The variance of what happens in three or four trips there in a single game is incredibly high, but while the Bills rank in the top 10 in conversion rate on both offense and defense inside the 20, the Chiefs have the second-worst red zone defense in football. I don't think the Chiefs can make Allen pay for his occasional transgressions near the goal line, and that will end up being the difference. Prediction: Bills 35, Chiefs 27.
NFC Championship Game
(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (2) San Francisco 49ers
This would be a pretty fun story, wouldn't it? Tom Brady returns home to play the team he grew up rooting for as a child in what might be his final NFL game. A player who was the ultimate out-of-nowhere story as a late-round draft pick forced into the starting quarterback spot by injury before unexpectedly leading his team to a Super Bowl now gets to face Brock Purdy, who would be one win away from doing that same thing as a rookie.
This would be a tougher matchup for the Tampa Bay offense. Like the Cowboys and Eagles, the 49ers have a great pass rush that Brady might be able to mitigate with his ability to get the ball out quickly. When the Niners don't get pressure, though, they are better in coverage than either team, ranking sixth in QBR allowed; the Cowboys are ninth, and the Eagles are 11th.
The stats I mentioned earlier as problems for the Eagles aren't issues for the 49ers. DeMeco Ryans' unit is the third-best defense against both short passes and throws between the hashes. The Niners finished the season No. 1 in defensive DVOA outright. If they have a weakness, it can come off of play-action, where Fred Warner & Co. rank 17th in QBR.
Even with the scuffling running game, Brady has been the sixth-best passer when using play-action this season. Ryans noted that teams have been able to create opportunities by attacking safety Talanoa Hufanga's eyes and distracting him; Brady would certainly try to move the defense around to create throwing lanes in a rematch.
At the same time, Purdy and the 49ers are an even worse matchup for the Tampa Bay defense. I've mentioned that Todd Bowles loves to blitz, and while he isn't sending extra pressure as often as he has in years past, the Bucs' 30.6% blitz rate is the ninth-highest mark in the league. They have the third-best defense when they send pressure, but that falls to 16th when Bowles sends four or fewer.
Since Week 14, the No. 1 quarterback against the blitz has been ... Purdy. Teams only have been able to get him for two sacks on 45 dropbacks against the blitz, as the first-year passer has typically had a plan for getting rid of the football against pressure. And when he does get the ball out, the 49ers are full of nightmare matchups for Tampa Bay defenders in open space. The Bucs are rangy and fast, though, which has helped them limit opposing offenses to just 4.6 yards after catch, the NFL's second-best mark.
The difference between the two might come down to two small factors. One is home-field advantage, which the 49ers will have, although I suspect there will be more than a few people rooting for Brady. The other is special teams. The 49ers have league-average special teams by Football Outsiders' numbers, but the Bucs' rank 31st. A kickoff out of bounds helped open the door for Brady to win his second Super Bowl with a late drive against the Panthers. Here, a similarly frustrating special teams play could end Brady's season. Prediction: 49ers 17, Buccaneers 13
Super Bowl LVII
(2) San Francisco 49ers vs. (2) Buffalo Bills
There are so many fun matchups in this game. Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds vs. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. Fred Warner vs. Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs vs. Charvarius Ward. We'll miss out on Von Miller vs. Trent Williams, but this would be a Super Bowl full of fascinating battles.
The one player who might not have a dance partner is potential Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Dion Dawkins is a solid left tackle, but the right side of the line is a weakness for the Bills, and right tackle Spencer Brown would be a mismatch against the league's most productive edge rusher. Bosa might not be able to single-handedly chase down Allen as a scrambler, but he can make it harder for Allen to get out of the pocket in the first place. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest scramble yards of any defense this season.
On the other hand, San Francisco's biggest advantage also would face a tough matchup. The Bills blitz at one of the league's lowest rates and limit teams to an average just 4.6 yards after their catches, putting them just behind the Buccaneers in third. With Milano and Edmunds leading the way, they allow just 4.9 yards per attempt on throws to running backs and tight ends, the second-best mark. With Kittle becoming San Francisco's top threat to score touchdowns after Brock Purdy took over, it's worth noting the Bills have allowed only two touchdown passes to running backs and tight ends all season. Only the Cowboys have allowed fewer.
The Bills would be better positioned to attack some of San Francisco's relative weaknesses. Allen has been able to win with play-action this season. He ranks fourth in QBR off play-action, and his 78% adjusted completion percentage with play fakes ranks fifth-best. Allen can use play fakes as part of RPOs or in more traditional play-action concepts to open up throwing lanes, and few quarterbacks can fit passes into tighter windows.
Buffalo's weakness this season has been defending deep passes, which makes sense when you remember it has been without safety Micah Hyde for most of the season. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan might want to push the ball downfield in the idealized version of his offense, but I'm not sure Purdy is that guy as of yet. He attempted just 11 deep passes across five games, completing four for 121 yards (11 yards per attempt). The league as a whole averages 13.2 yards per deep attempt.
The Bills also field the league's best special teams, which would give them an advantage over San Francisco's league-average unit. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott has been more apt to get aggressive on fourth down with Allen, while Shanahan has typically gotten conservative in key moments, including the Super Bowl LIV loss to the Chiefs.
A 49ers victory would probably require two or more takeaways, a great day in the red zone and a big play or two from McCaffrey in the passing game. It's hardly impossible to rule out that scenario, but there would be more paths toward Buffalo winning the game. I picked the Bills over the 49ers before the season, so I'll stick with that now. Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 17.