Predicting NFL Week 16 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

The 2022 NFL playoff race has reached full throttle, which means the usual complementary storylines are also at the forefront for those who won't reach the postseason. One centers around positioning for the 2023 NFL draft -- the Houston Texans are in the clear pole position for the right to select No. 1 as Week 16 begins. Another is about potential leadership changes for those who have experienced disappointing seasons, and that's where ESPN's NFL insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler come in.

Graz and Fowler this week size up the current state of the coaching carousel, sharing names who might need strong finishes, discussing the interim coaches who are vying for the permanent roles and identifying who's next from the prospective pool of NFL head-coaching candidates. Our duo also dispenses upset picks and fantasy advice ahead of a critical week for both the real postseason and fantasy postseason.

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Coaching hot seat | Interim hopefuls
Top coaching candidates | NFL's top exec?
Upsets | Fantasy start/sit | Weekly buzz

It seems at this moment like it could be a light head-coaching carousel, though we know surprises abound in each cycle. Which spots do you have your eye on right now for potential coaching changes?

Graziano: Yeah, this time last year there was talk of it being a light year and then 10 teams ended up changing head coaches. So I'll believe it when I see it. But other than the two teams that already have fired their coaches, I have my eye on Denver, Arizona and Houston for a potential change at head coach. I think Brandon Staley could be in trouble with the Chargers if they don't make the playoffs, but it's starting to look as if they will. Anything other than that, I think at this point would qualify as a surprise, though I am wondering whether we could see some non-firing changes, such as Bill Belichick deciding to move into a different role with the Patriots or Sean McVay taking one of those TV offers he didn't take last year.

Fowler: With Carolina and Indy already making coaching moves, Dan, those three listed above would put us at five. So for all the talk about high-profile candidates wanting the Chargers' job (hello, Sean Payton), Brandon Staley has done a nice job this year, considering all the injuries. He has the Chargers' defense, in particular, showing up in big and creative ways. Anything is possible, of course, but I could see a path where he solidifies his status there.

McVay taking the golden parachute via the booth seems plausible, but I've talked to a few people around the Rams who have a hard time thinking McVay would walk away on a down year. If we're looking at NFC West surprises, Pete Carroll turned 71 this season. He probably wants to see the post-Russell Wilson era through multiple years, but he's a name people around the league are at least watching due to age. I believe the Saints and GM Mickey Loomis had more than one year in mind with Dennis Allen, but there have been rocky moments, to be sure. So, in all, I'm probably in the same spot as you -- five jobs open, plus the possibility of a few wild cards that haven't crystallized yet.

Both Steve Wilks (Panthers) and Jeff Saturday (Colts) have had some encouraging moments as interim head coaches. What's the current likelihood that either man ends up with the permanent job?

Fowler: Support for Wilks getting the Panthers' job full time is building in some league circles after his 4-4 start. As one AFC executive told me, Wilks should be a "slam dunk" to get the job because he has improved morale in the locker room, reenergized the staff and promoted a physical style of football. At the very least, he has positioned himself well as owner David Tepper charts a direction for the franchise. Many around the league believe Tepper wants to solve his quarterback room once and for all, so whether it's an offensive-minded candidate, Wilks or somebody else, their plan for the offense will loom large as a selling point.

In Indy, owner Jim Irsay has a clear affinity for Saturday, who will most likely get to interview for the job and state his case. It seems like Irsay can go a number of directions here, and he told reporters at the NFL owners meetings last week that he would cast a wide net, college included. Remember, teams need to interview at least two external minority candidates regardless of having an interim coach in place. Despite Jim Harbaugh's claim that he will "enthusiastically" coach Michigan in 2023, some around the league are wondering if the Colts' interest in him could change that.

Graziano: Yeah, Harbaugh is always an interesting wild card, right? We heard him connected with the Raiders around this time last year, and he ended up interviewing with the Vikings but not getting the job. I think his name will always come up, whether it's realistic or not, and maybe Irsay places a call (or already has). Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as the 49ers' head coach, and there just aren't any other candidates who can list that level of NFL success on their résumés.

As for Saturday, you're right, the relationship between him and Irsay is a close one, and I'm sure there will be some temptation to keep him in the job. They do have to interview others, though, and my sense is that it'll be a wide-net situation. I'd call Saturday a candidate but probably not the most likely one to end up with the job.

In Carolina, what I've heard consistently is that Tepper is looking for someone with previous head-coaching experience, which Wilks has. If the Panthers win the division -- which they absolutely could -- you'd have to think Wilks' chances of keeping the job are strong, though I agree with you that quarterback has to be that team's top priority and the decision about the head coach could ultimately depend on what they think they're going to be able to do at QB.

Let's talk candidates. Who will be atop the list for teams seeking to make a change at head coach? What new names have picked up momentum in recent weeks?

Graziano: The momentum guy is probably Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who's only going to get more attention if the Lions keep winning and end up in the postseason. Top candidates whose names you'll hear include 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, Eagles coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and former Saints head coach Sean Payton, who could be the "white whale" of this cycle for one or more teams.

Titans defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey are of interest to teams from an interview standpoint at least. The Bengals' success could result in more interview attention for their coordinators, Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo. Former Colts coach Frank Reich should be of interest if he wants back in right away. Former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is always an interesting name, given the amount of head-coaching experience he has. And could this finally be the year for Eric Bieniemy?

Fowler: Still expect Bieniemy to hit the interview circuit, Dan. A few teams probably will want to talk with him. On one end, it seems like his window has passed, but the Chiefs' offense has improved this year, with Patrick Mahomes pushing for another MVP. Perhaps that helps Bieniemy's cause. Lewis has been out of the game for four years now, so it's hard to say he's a magma-hot name, but I do sense some interest still exists. Cowboys OC Kellen Moore should be a fixture in this cycle. Seahawks OC Shane Waldron, Commanders OC Scott Turner and Giants OC Mike Kafka have caught attention with their work.

On defense, enough execs see Patriots assistant Jerod Mayo as potential head-coach material that he'll be involved. Same with Ravens DC Mike Macdonald, and there still could be an interview spot for Lions DC Aaron Glenn, as the Lions have improved defensively. Do former head coaches Raheem Morris (Los Angeles Rams) and Vance Joseph (Arizona) get another chance? Or does a team try to get ahead of an ascending non-coordinator, such as Rams assistant Thomas Brown? Lot of wild cards here. And here's another one: David Shaw. The former Stanford coach once had heavy NFL interest and is now available.

We've talked a lot about head coach and player of the year candidates in this space. Who's on your shortlist for NFL executive of the year?

Fowler: There are plenty of good options here. It's hard to ignore what Howie Roseman has done in Philadelphia. The Eagles' roster is among the league's best, and the pre-draft trade with the Saints is looking really smart right now, with Philadelphia owning the rights to the Saints' projected No. 9 pick, along with their own first-rounder.

Kansas City's Brett Veach helped reimagine the Chiefs' offense, which has been more productive this year despite the loss of Tyreek Hill. The offensive line is loaded, and picks acquired in the Hill trade give him ammunition to improve the defense. Buffalo's Brandon Beane is always in this mix, but he recently won exec of the year honors. Other strong candidates include Miami's Chris Grier, Seattle's John Schneider, Cincinnati's Duke Tobin and Dallas' Stephen Jones.

Graziano: Man, it'd be hard not to give it to Roseman if the Eagles end up with the best record in the league. The roster he has built is a testament to the right combination of short-term aggressiveness and long-term contingency planning. Remember that they drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round just months after giving Carson Wentz a long-term extension. All bases always covered in Philly. He went after A.J. Brown aggressively, knowing he was exactly what Hurts needed to help take him to the next level. It seems like he has traded high draft picks for win-now players a bunch, but somehow the Eagles still have two first-round picks in next year's draft. You list a lot of worthy names, but I would have to put Roseman at the top of it. The only name you didn't list who I'd say at least deserves a mention here is the Vikings' Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, whose team is 11-3 in his rookie year as a GM.