The NFL quarterback carousel spins every year, and the 2023 offseason will be no exception. While there's still plenty of football to go this season, there are plenty of teams that have one eye on their present and another on their future. Some of those organizations are in position to make the playoffs, but unless they're one of the teams clearly in the mix for the Super Bowl with a quarterback any other team would envy, they're just getting by under center.
Going through the league's quarterback situations and where they stand right now, I counted 19 teams that have a reasonable chance of starting a new quarterback in Week 1 of next season. Let's run through those 19 and look into what happened to each team in Week 15, what their quarterback situation might look like in 2023 and who they could add this offseason. Some might only make an addition if their team craters over the final few weeks of the season. Others have been spending the entire season scouting new quarterbacks, knowing they'll be in the market for a replacement this spring.
I'll go through these teams alphabetically, beginning with a team that gave a rookie his first start on Sunday:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BAL | CAR | DET | GB | HOU
IND | LV | LAR | MIN | NE | NO
NYG | NYJ | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Atlanta Falcons
Current starter: Desmond Ridder
What happened in Week 15: Ridder, making his first career start, wasn't able to spark a moribund Falcons passing attack. He went 13 of 26 for just 97 yards, 70 of which went toward first-round pick Drake London. Ridder contributed 38 yards on six carries, but 18 of those came on the final snap of the game, when he ran the clock out despite trailing by three points as Atlanta lost 21-18 to New Orleans.
How has it gone in 2022? Atlanta's offense has been excellent on the ground, with the league's sixth-best rushing DVOA heading into Week 15. With the Falcons running at one of the highest rates in football, they ranked 12th in the league in offensive DVOA, which was shocking for a unit which didn't look great heading into the season and never really got star tight end Kyle Pitts untracked before his season-ending knee injury.
Most of that came with Marcus Mariota at the helm. Mariota struggled for consistency and continued to take too many sacks, but he averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt and ran for just under 34 yards per game. The Falcons got more than what they paid for after giving him $6.8 million for the 2022 season, but after coach Arthur Smith benched Mariota for Ridder, he left the team to undergo knee surgery.
Contract for 2023: Mariota is owed $12.5 million in the second and final year of his deal, but none of it is guaranteed. It certainly feels like the two sides are heading for a breakup in 2023, especially if the Falcons end up believing that Ridder can take over starting duties in 2022. The rookie will enter Year 2 of a four-year, $5.4 million pact next season.
Other internal candidates: Former Titans backup Logan Woodside is the No. 2 quarterback behind Ridder. Converted tight end Feleipe Franks, who was a quarterback in college, took two snaps under center during Sunday's loss. Neither player is likely to figure in the quarterback conversation in 2022, let alone 2023.
Ties to any likely free agents: Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone was the quarterbacks coach in Chicago under John Fox and then Matt Nagy, when the Bears were trying to develop Mitch Trubisky into a starting-caliber quarterback. I don't think the Falcons are going to look toward Trubisky as their answer under center, but if they choose to move forward with Ridder and want a backup, Trubisky could be a player they target.
Ryan Tannehill isn't a free agent, but as he enters the final year of his contract, the Titans could go in a different direction. Smith helped unlock a new level of play from Tannehill after the Titans acquired him on a salary dump from the Dolphins, so it stands to reason that he might be interested in reuniting with his former charge in Atlanta. After years of cap constraints, the Falcons have more than $74 million in cap space next season, so they could afford to bring Tannehill in on his existing deal if so inclined.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A young quarterback in the first round. The Falcons project to pick No. 7 overall, per ESPN's Football Power Index, and with Ridder in the fold, a late-season burst of victories seems unlikely. They used a third-round pick on Ridder, which suggests it sees him as a possibility as their quarterback of the future as opposed to an inevitability.
Plenty of teams have used similar midround selections on quarterbacks and then taken another a passer toward the top of the draft the following year, including the Jets with James Morgan and Zach Wilson, the Browns with DeShone Kizer and Baker Mayfield, and the Panthers with Jimmy Clausen and Cam Newton. If the Falcons don't have a passer they love in this rookie class, they'll draft the best available defensive lineman, sign a veteran and give Ridder a chance to start in 2023. If there is a young quarterback they admire, though, I don't think the organization lets Ridder stand in the way.
Baltimore Ravens
Current starter: Tyler Huntley
What happened in Week 15: With Lamar Jackson sidelined by a knee injury, Huntley filled in and struggled for the second consecutive week. He completed 17 of 30 for 138 yards and threw an interception in the red zone in the 13-3 loss to the Browns. I would argue that an offense forced to throw slants to a 36-year-old DeSean Jackson in the red zone isn't setting its quarterbacks up for much success, but it wasn't a great day. Huntley also ran the ball six times for 15 yards.
How has it gone in 2022? Even before suffering his knee injury, Jackson had been struggling through two months of inconsistent play. From Week 4 on, he has completed just under 62% of his passes and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns against seven turnovers. The former MVP continues to be effective as a runner, but the hot start to begin the season has not held up.
The Ravens haven't exactly fielded a legendary set of playmakers, owing to organizational decisions and injuries. Baltimore didn't replace Marquise Brown after trading him to Arizona. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have missed time while recovering from torn ACLs. Star tight end Mark Andrews was out for the better part of two games in midseason and hasn't looked the same since, while 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman is out for the year with a Lisfranc injury.
Contract for 2023: Jackson is an unrestricted free agent, although nobody expects the Ravens to let him skip town. They are expected to use the exclusive franchise tag to keep him, which projects to come in north of $45 million for the 2023 season. If Baltimore chose instead to use the nonexclusive franchise tag to save about $14 million, it would run the risk of losing him at the cost of two first-round picks.
Would there be a market for Jackson at that price? There aren't many opportunities for teams to acquire 25-year-old past MVPs at any cost, let alone when they're quarterbacks. There aren't many organizations picking in the bottom half of the first round without a settled quarterback situation, but would a team like the Titans be willing to make that sort of investment as a replacement for Ryan Tannehill?
The real moment of truth for Jackson and the Ravens won't come until 2024, when the team would be forced to pay more than $54 million to keep him for a second franchise tag. They likely would need to make a decision at that point, given that there's no way they can countenance a $77.8 million franchise tag in 2025. If the risk is losing Jackson for nothing, they would have no choice but to trade him during the next offseason.
Other internal candidates: Huntley hasn't been much better than a replacement-level passer. He's a restricted free agent after the season. Anthony Brown, who was featured briefly in the win over the Steelers in Week 14, is a developmental passer. Former Packers quarterback Brett Hundley is on the practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman was running that side of the ball in San Francisco during Colin Kaepernick's peak with the 49ers, but the Ravens have never shown significant interest in adding the now-35-year-old quarterback. The entire organization is familiar with Joe Flacco, who spent 11 years with the Ravens between 2008 and 2018 and won a Super Bowl. Flacco will be a free agent after the season and has been solid across four spot starts with the Jets over the past two seasons.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Marcus Mariota. I support the logic of pursuing a backup quarterback who plays in similar ways to your starter, but Huntley hasn't been good enough to consistently move the ball when Jackson has been out. Mariota probably won't be looking at starting opportunities after an up-and-down season in Atlanta, and he can serve as a hybrid quarterback if Jackson misses more time with injuries.
Carolina Panthers
Current starter: Sam Darnold
What happened in Week 15: After winning his first two starts this season, Darnold finally took a loss in a 24-16 defeat to the Steelers. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and completed more than 60% of their passes for the first time in three starts, but it's clear the Panthers don't want to ask him to throw the football much. He has now thrown 19, 24 and 23 times across his starts.
How has it gone in 2022? Darnold is the third quarterback to start for the Panthers this season. Then-coach Matt Rhule began the year with Baker Mayfield under center, but Mayfield melted down and averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt before being waived in December. Carolina gave PJ Walker five starts and got one very memorable Hail Mary against the Falcons before turning to Darnold, who has been the best of the bunch without meaningful passing volume.
Contract for 2023: Mayfield already has been released, and Darnold is an unrestricted free agent. Walker is a restricted free agent and could return in 2023, although the 27-year-old was brought into the organization by Rhule, his former college coach at Temple. Rhule was fired in midseason and is now the coach at Nebraska. I would expect the Panthers to start over at quarterback next season.
Other internal candidates: The only remaining passer in the mix is rookie third-rounder Matt Corral, who missed the entirety of the season with a Lisfranc injury. Corral should figure in the conversation next season after the Panthers traded up to grab him in the 2022 draft, but with Rhule out of the organization, there aren't any guarantees Carolina's next coach will be particularly inclined to give him a chance.
Ties to any likely free agents: It remains to be seen whether the Steve Wilks-led interim staff will be back in 2023. General manager Scott Fitterer spent the vast majority of his NFL career in Seattle and was in a meaningful role when the Seahawks brought in Geno Smith to backup Russell Wilson, but Smith might not make it to free agency.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: One of the rookies in the 2023 draft class. The Panthers have unsuccessfully tried to land veterans Matthew Stafford and Wilson, and they could go into the mix again if someone such as Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins is on the trade market. Carolina is projected to have the No. 9 overall pick in the draft, and it could make a meaningful attempt to get its long-term solution under center.
Detroit Lions
Current starter: Jared Goff
What happened in Week 15: Goff and the Lions continued their white-hot stretch of football by avoiding turnovers in yet another victory. He averaged 6.6 yards per attempt against a fierce Jets defense, but he didn't turn the ball over for the fifth consecutive Lions victory and hit Brock Wright on a fourth-and-1 busted coverage for the game-winning touchdown with 1:49 to go. The Lions won 20-17.
How has it gone in 2022? After a difficult 2021 campaign, Goff has looked much more confident this season. Despite being without the services of first-round pick Jameson Williams for most of the season, Goff's 63.5 QBR ranks as the sixth-best mark in football, ahead of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. He has turned the ball over just once since the end of Week 7, with Detroit going 5-2 over that span.
Contract for 2023: Goff is owed just over $26 million in 2023, but none of that money is guaranteed. The team could theoretically free up nearly $21 million by releasing him, but Goff is playing too well for the Lions to make a serious change in direction.
Other internal candidates: Backup quarterback Nate Sudfeld hasn't thrown a pass since that disastrous night against the Commanders in Week 17 of the 2020 season. Joshua Dobbs, who threw 17 passes during his time with the Steelers, is the No. 3. They'll both be free agents after the season.
Ties to any likely free agents: Dan Campbell was with the Saints when they imported Teddy Bridgewater and then Jameis Winston. Under any circumstances, there's not a huge chance the Lions go after another veteran passer.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Goff has been too good to justify any sort of immediate shift because of talent, but if the Lions want to capitalize on landing a top-five pick from the Rams in the Matthew Stafford deal, they could use that selection to take a quarterback of the future to play behind Goff. It would take a stunning turn of events in December and January for the Lions to dump him.
Green Bay Packers
Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
What happened in Week 15: The Packers will attempt to stave off their first losing record since 2018 by beating the Rams on "Monday Night Football."
How has it gone in 2022? It has been ugly. The offense has struggled for consistency without star wideout Davante Adams. Rodgers & Co. typically have been the best offense in football at avoiding giveaways, but the Packers already have topped their 2019, 2020 and 2021 totals by racking up 17 turnovers with four games to go. Rodgers, who averaged 8.0 yards per attempt across his MVP campaigns in 2020 and 2021, is down to just 6.8 this season.
Jordan Love, the 2020 first-round pick whose selection inspired so much tumult, threw a 63-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson while filling in for an injured Rodgers against the Eagles in November. As was the case for Rodgers, who spent his first three seasons backing up Brett Favre before getting significant time, we just don't know much about Love after just 80 career pass attempts. It would behoove the Packers to get Love a start or two before the end of the season.
Contract for 2023: It's complicated. Rodgers' new deal still has $129.6 million in practical guarantees remaining, leaving the Packers in a position in which they really have no choice but to keep him on the roster if he wants. They will get out of those guarantees if he retires, although they would owe $40.3 million in dead money on their 2023 cap.
The Packers would eat that same $40.3 million if they traded Rodgers before the start of the 2023 season, although they can wait to make a move until after June 1 if they want to spread that dead money over their 2023 and 2024 caps. A deal before then is more likely if they want to trade him, given that most teams don't want to wait until the summer to fill their void at quarterback.
At the same time this offseason, Green Bay will have to decide on Love's fifth-year option, which is projected to land just below $20 million. That mark would be guaranteed for 2024, and if the team retains Rodgers, it would be nearly impossible to trade away its legendary quarterback after the 2023 season begins because of how his contract is structured.
Other internal candidates: Danny Etling, a 28-year-old journeyman, is on the Green Bay practice squad. He has been with seven different organizations without taking a regular-season NFL snap.
Ties to any likely free agents: Tim Boyle was the backup behind Rodgers in 2019 and 2020, throwing a total of four passes. If the Packers move Love or Rodgers, Boyle could return as the No. 2 quarterback. Brett Hundley, who was drafted by the team and followed quarterbacks coach Tom Clements to Arizona in 2019 before the veteran coach returned to Green Bay, is also likely to be a free agent.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A backup to take the place of one of these quarterbacks. Given the deadlines imposed by Love's fifth-year option and Rodgers' option bonus, the Packers realistically need to make a decision this spring about their 2024 and 2025 quarterback. Trading one of these passers would open a spot on the roster for another one to take his place.
Houston Texans
Current starter: Davis Mills
What happened in Week 15: In another no-lose game against the Chiefs, Mills and Jeff Driskel continued to rotate in at quarterback with some success. Mills went 12 of 24 for just 121 yards, although he did throw two touchdown passes and run in a third on a 17-yard scamper for Pep Hamilton's team. Driskel, used in a change-of-pace role last week, turned four pass attempts and four carries into a total of 16 yards. The Texans lost 30-24 in overtime.
How has it gone in 2022? Mills hasn't lived up to the hopes the Texans had after his hot finish to end last season. After a 10-game stretch with as many touchdown passes (11) as interceptions this season, the Texans benched Mills for Kyle Allen, only to restore Mills to the starting job two weeks later. Driskel should continue to factor in as a hybrid passer/rusher, but nothing about what the Texans have done this season suggests their 2023 starter is on the roster.
Contract for 2023: Mills will be entering the third season of a four-year, $5.2 million rookie deal. None of the remaining $2.5 million on his deal is guaranteed, so the Texans could move on from him if so inclined, although it's more likely that he settles in as the backup. Allen and Driskel will both be free agents.
Other internal candidates: No other quarterbacks are on the roster.
Ties to any likely free agents: Lots! Owing to his time in New England, general manager Nick Caserio is quite familiar with the two most prominent quarterbacks on the market: Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. It would take a truly spectacular pitch to get the 45-year-old Brady to join the Texans, who don't look close to contention. Garoppolo might be a more realistic target, although other teams will be able to offer him more competitive rosters.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A rookie with the No. 1 pick. The Texans have an 88.3% chance of landing the top selection in April's draft, per ESPN's Football Power Index. While they have needs at other positions, it would be a shock if they didn't use that selection on a quarterback. Caserio could also pursue a veteran to serve as a steady hand behind that rookie, although Mills also seems capable of serving as the team's No. 2.
Indianapolis Colts
Current starter: Matt Ryan
What happened in Week 15: Ryan completed 19 of 33 for 182 yards with a touchdown in Saturday's epic defeat at the hands of the Vikings. Gifted points by defensive and special teams touchdowns, his most notable contribution might have been coming up short on a fourth-and-1 sneak that would have sealed the win for the Colts with 2:31 left in regulation.
How has it gone in 2022? Not great. Ryan was benched earlier this season, and while interim coach Jeff Saturday was able to restore him to the starting role after arriving in Indianapolis, it certainly doesn't feel like the welcome mat will be open in 2023. Ryan's 43.9 QBR ranks 25th in the NFL, and at 37, it's difficult to believe he would take a big step forward next season.
Contract for 2023: Ryan has a $35.2 million cap hit in 2023. The Colts guaranteed $12 million of his $29.2 million compensation when they traded for him in April, so they would be on the hook for that amount, minus whatever he might get elsewhere after being released. If he signed for the minimum to chase a ring, the Colts will have paid Ryan about $35 million for one year of middling work. Not ideal.
Other internal candidates: Sam Ehlinger was thrust into an impossible situation during his two starts, one of which came against a Patriots defense that sacked him nine times. The second-year quarterback wasn't an embarrassment, but as a sixth-round pick, he was drafted as a project. It's unlikely the Colts would go back to Ehlinger as their starter next season.
Veteran Nick Foles is also on the roster, and $1.5 million of his 2023 base salary is guaranteed. Foles pushed to join the team because of the presence of coach Frank Reich, who worked with the Super Bowl MVP during their time in Philadelphia. Reich was fired in early November, and the Colts didn't promote Foles into the starting role when Ryan was benched. Foles has gotten white-hot for stretches during his career, but the organization seems to value him in the backup role.
Ties to any likely free agents: It's unclear who will be serving as the team's coach in 2023. General manager Chris Ballard's last stop before taking over in Indy was in Kansas City, but I don't believe Patrick Mahomes is headed to Indianapolis.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: One of the rookies in the 2023 draft class. The organization has cycled through veteran options since Andrew Luck's stunning retirement in 2019, and it's become clear that team owner Jim Irsay has grown tired of the rotating quarterbacks. The Colts project to pick No. 7 overall in April's draft, which should line them up for one of the class's top signal-callers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Current starter: Derek Carr
What happened in Week 15: In a season full of bizarre endings to close games, the Raiders came up with a unique finish by even their lofty standards. Trailing the Patriots 24-17 with 1:54 to go, Carr converted a fourth-and-10 to extend the game, completed three more passes and then hit Keelan Cole for a 30-yard touchdown (which might have been out of bounds) to tie the game at 24-24. The Patriots then followed by running the worst Scott Van Pelt "pitchy pitchy woo woo" play at the end of regulation, with Chandler Jones taking a gift from Jakobi Meyers to the house for a game-winning touchdown.
It was an uneven game for Carr, who came up big late after helping the team blow an early lead. With the Patriots taking Davante Adams out of the contest, Carr struggled to find his secondary receivers and threw a pick-six on a screen to Kyle Dugger. He finished 20 of 38 for 231 yards with three touchdowns and the pick-six on a day in which the much-maligned Raiders defense held Mac Jones to 112 yards on 31 pass attempts.
How has it gone in 2022? It has been a frustrating season for the Raiders, who have alternated crushing defeats with emotional victories. They blew their fifth double-digit lead of the season on Sunday and came within a single play of losing all five of those contests. Carr and the offense have gotten off to hot starts and struggled to move the ball as the game has gone along, leading to long stretches where the opposing team's offense fuels a comeback.
As usual, Carr isn't the problem with this team. He has settled in as the league's 10th-best quarterback by QBR, even if his raw numbers aren't quite as impressive as they were 2020 or 2021. As the Raiders search for solutions to the other holes on their roster, though, it's inevitable to wonder whether the sort of team that gets the most out of having a veteran quarterback making a market value salary as opposed to a younger, cheaper option.
Contract for 2023: The three-year, $121.5 million extension Carr signed in April isn't quite what it seemed at the time. In reality, the deal paid him about $5 million up front to lock in the right to pay him $116.3 million between 2023 and 2025. The Raiders don't have to decide whether they want to make that move until February 15, when $40.4 million of his base salaries guarantee for the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Carr has a no-trade clause on this deal, but it's unclear whether he would be willing to accept a deal to another team if that organization appealed to the 31-year-old. The Raiders could also cut him outright and free up $29.3 million in cap space, although they would surely prefer to get something in return for the veteran quarterback.
Other internal candidates: Coach Josh McDaniels & Co. traded for former Patriots draftee Jarrett Stidham, who was briefly supposed to be the replacement for Tom Brady in New England. Stidham has posted a 52.8 passer rating on 61 career pass attempts, including an 8-for-13 performance in spot duty with the Raiders this season. His rookie contract expires at the end of the season. Chase Garbers, who started for four seasons at Cal, is on the practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: Yep. McDaniels is intimately familiar with both Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo, both of whom are expected to hit the open market this offseason. The Raiders have plenty of playmakers, although their defense is a disaster and their offensive line has been a work in progress for most of the season. Nevada's lack of a state income tax also gives them a financial advantage relative to most of the league's other teams in what they can offer a traveling quarterback.
You could argue Carr is a better player at this point of his career than either Brady or Garoppolo, and I wouldn't disagree. At the same time, McDaniels might very well believe he can coax more out of the two passers he helped develop in New England than he can out of a veteran in Carr. It might be a lateral move, but McDaniels might prefer to move forward with one of his old charges, even if it means cutting Carr.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: I think they'll make a serious run at Brady. The Raiders don't need a splashy hire to sell out games in Las Vegas, but adding the greatest player in league history is an economic boon for any team. Brady's familiarity with McDaniels and the offense and the impressive group of playmakers are only a bonus. McDaniels already was fired once for getting his quarterback situation wrong in Denver. On top of all that, Brady would probably come at a lower cost than Carr over the next couple of seasons.
Los Angeles Rams
Current starter: Baker Mayfield
What happened in Week 15: The Rams play Monday night against the Packers.
How has it gone in 2022? Not great. The defending champs couldn't afford to lose many of their star players to injury, but just about every one of their key contributors on offense has gone down. In addition to losing wideouts Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson and tackle Joe Noteboom, the Rams eventually lost quarterback Matthew Stafford to a series of injuries. The most significant one, a spinal cord contusion, is likely to end his season.
Coach Sean McVay gave starts to backups John Wolford and Bryce Perkins before acquiring Mayfield off waivers from Carolina. While Wolford started the Week 14 game against the Raiders, McVay quickly turned to Mayfield, who sparked an unlikely comeback by leading touchdowns on each of Los Angeles' final two drives for what would eventually be a 17-16 victory.
Mayfield was a disaster for the Panthers during his brief spell in Carolina; he was the league's worst quarterback in most statistical categories. The win over the Raiders might kick-start his career. He should have the rest of the season to prove himself, although he'll be throwing to a group of backup receivers and playing behind a below-average offensive line.
Contract for 2023: Mayfield will be an unrestricted free agent after playing out his fifth-year option this season. Wolford and Perkins are restricted free agents, so the Rams should be able to bring one or both back for 2023 if so inclined.
Stafford is very much under contract, although his professional future appears to be in some question. If he were to retire, the Rams would be forced to account for $49.5 million in dead money, which would put them in an impossible cap bind and prevent them from spending significant money on his replacement. At the very least, given that Stafford was already managing an ongoing elbow injury before suffering a concussion and the spinal contusion, the Rams need to think about investing more behind him.
Other internal candidates: Case Cookus, who averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt during his time in the USFL, is on the practice squad. That number doesn't translate well to the highest level of football.
Ties to any likely free agents: Sean Mannion served as the backup to Jared Goff during the early days of the McVay era.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Assuming Stafford is able to return, it would make sense for the Rams to make backup quarterback a priority for their 2023 roster. A reunion with Mayfield could make sense for all parties involved if he plays well over the final month of the season, assuming he doesn't draw offers to start elsewhere.
Minnesota Vikings
Current starter: Kirk Cousins
What happened in Week 15: Just about everything happened at one point or another in the Vikings' 39-36 overtime win over the Colts, which was one of the most entertaining games of the season. Cousins finished 34 of 54 for 460 yards with four touchdown passes and two picks, including a pick-six in the second quarter. The other interception wasn't his fault, as Jalen Reagor stopped running on a deep crossing route. Cousins mysteriously chose to try and scramble for a first down on fourth-and-15 in the fourth quarter, but the Vikings managed to overcome his mistakes and clinch a division title.
How has it gone in 2022? Cousins has won a lot of games while posting relatively ordinary numbers. He ranks 19th in QBR (51.4) and he's averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt. The chunk plays he would hit off play-action in years past have mostly gone away, as new coach Kevin O'Connell has him throwing deep less frequently than the league average.
Of course, the Cousins saga in Minnesota has gone on for several years now, and I suspect most people have picked their side long before 2022. It would take a Super Bowl run to convince Cousins skeptics to reevaluate their opinions, and even that might not be enough without a victory. In a league in which teams typically want unquestionable superstar quarterbacks or passers on rookie deals, he doesn't fit into either box. He's an average to above average quarterback making above average money.
Contract for 2023: In extending Cousins' contract this offseason to create cap space, the Vikings guaranteed him $30 million for the 2023 season. Cutting the 34-year-old is not really an option. Minnesota could trade him before his $15 million roster bonus comes due on March 23 and free up $17.5 million in cap space, but he again has a no-trade clause on this most recent deal.
Even with the no-trade clause, the Vikings could still trade Cousins if they find a deal that would satisfy him. In addition to approving his new destination, he would also have the leverage to get a new contract as part of any deal. I'm not sure the Vikings are desperate to deal him, but if the organization plans on drafting a quarterback in April, a trade would be ideal for all parties involved.
Other internal candidates: The only other quarterback on the roster is former 49ers passer Nick Mullens, who is a free agent after the season. The prior regime used a 2021 third-round pick on Kellen Mond, but after being publicly dismissed by then-coach Mike Zimmer as a rookie, he was cut in August.
Ties to any likely free agents: General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was in San Francisco for the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo during the 2017 season. He was also vice president of football operations for the Browns during the 2020 and 2021 campaigns, although I'm not sure Baker Mayfield will be desperate to link up with any members of the Cleveland organization any time soon.
O'Connell was the offensive coordinator for Jared Goff during the latter's final season with the Rams in 2020. Goff isn't going to be a free agent -- and teams don't often make trades within their own division -- but the Vikings have proved to be an exception to that rule. Having said all that, I'm not sure there's much of a point to trading Cousins to install a similar player in Garoppolo or Goff.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A backup. Cousins is the most likely starter for the Vikings in 2023.
New England Patriots
Current starter: Mac Jones
What happened in Week 15: Even before the second-year quarterback was run over by former Patriots edge rusher Chandler Jones during that incredible end to the game against the Raiders, Jones was laboring through another brutal performance. Facing the league's worst pass defense by DVOA, he went 13 of 31 for 112 yards. While those numbers were influenced by a number of drops or narrow incompletions on 50-50 balls, he continues to look frustrated and overwhelmed in Matt Patricia's offense.
How has it gone in 2022? Jones has taken a step backward in just about every major statistical category. His body language has been horrific, as he seems to spend most of every NFL game he plays angry at his coaching staff, his receivers or some combination of the two. It's difficult to find anything he has done well in his second season.
Contract for 2023: Jones will be in Year 3 of his rookie deal, which is fully guaranteed. The Patriots are on the hook for $2.1 million in 2022 and $2.8 million in 2023. Bailey Zappe, who briefly usurped an injured Jones earlier this season, will be entering Year 2 of his own rookie contract. Jones and Zappe will make about $3 million combined in 2023, and though they've collectively struggled, it's better to be cheap and mediocre than expensive and mediocre.
Other internal candidates: Longtime veteran Brian Hoyer is on injured reserve, but he's under contract in 2023. Former Rams draftee Garrett Gilbert picked up spot starts for the Cowboys in 2020 and the Commanders in 2021, but that streak appears to be coming to an end in 2022.
Ties to any likely free agents: They might have Tom Brady's most recent phone number. The Patriots could also try to pursue a reunion with Jimmy Garoppolo, although much of the offensive infrastructure from McDaniels' era with the team is elsewhere.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: The Patriots have to at least call Brady's people to inquire whether he would like to return to New England to finish out his career. It would be uncomfortable to bench Jones for a 45-year-old quarterback who already has one retirement under his belt, but they can't let a dominant defense wait for Jones or Zappe to catch up and improve. They could also pursue Garoppolo, who was traded by New England to the 49ers just before the trade deadline in 2017.
New Orleans Saints
Current starter: Andy Dalton
What happened in Week 15: In a divisional game with the rival Falcons, Dalton went 11 of 17 for 151 yards and two touchdowns. He got some help from the occasional quarterback, as Taysom Hill threw a 68-yard score to Rashid Shaheed in the first half. The 21-18 win somehow took the Saints, who have been decimated by injuries and whose fan base is furious with its coach, within a game of the first-place Buccaneers in the NFC South.
How has it gone in 2022? New Orleans began the season with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback, but after he suffered a back injury, the team was forced to turn to Dalton in the lead role. Dalton, 35, has exceeded expectations, as his 53.0 QBR ranks 18th in the league, nestled comfortably between the two bastions of veteran competence in Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins.
Contract for 2023: Dalton is a free agent. The cap-strapped Saints likely will cut Winston, who is owed $12.8 million next season. Even though it'll force them to eat $11.2 million in dead money, they would free up $4.4 million in much-needed room by moving on from Winston, who hasn't returned to the starting role after recovering from his back issue.
Other internal candidates: Hill will be under contract in 2023 and should continue to figure in his hybrid role as a part-time passer, although any plan to use him as the team's primary quarterback seemed to go out the door with former coach Sean Payton. Jake Luton, who has bounced between the Jaguars and Seahawks, is on the New Orleans practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: Teddy Bridgewater will be a free agent after his lone season with the Dolphins, and he was a beloved member of the organization during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. After losing a spot start with backups in Week 17 of the 2018 campaign, he went 5-0 while filling in for an injured Drew Brees the following season.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Without their first-round pick in the 2023 draft as a product of their trade with the Eagles, the Saints won't be in position to add the premium prospect they need. Cap issues will likely limit them to a low-cost veteran option or two at quarterback, with a Bridgewater reunion as one obvious path to pursue.
New York Giants
Current starter: Daniel Jones
What happened in Week 15: The Giants got their playoff hopes back on track with a 20-12 victory over the Commanders. It took a stop on the goal line and a no-call from the referees on what appeared to be a textbook case of pass interference, but Saquon Barkley & Co. will take a win any way they can get it. Jones also helped, going 21 of 32 for 160 yards. Averaging an even 5.0 yards per attempt isn't going to blow anybody away, but he ran for 35 more and held onto the football in a game in which the Giants won the takeaway battle 2-0.
How has it gone in 2022? Jones has improved, particularly with regards to protecting the football. His interception rate has improved for the fourth consecutive season, and the fumble issues that plagued him early in his career have subsided. Jones is a weekly threat to run for 50 yards and a handful of first downs, and in quarterback-friendly game scripts, he has looked confident and in control despite playing with a perpetually changing receiving corps.
Outside of those scripts and once Barkley slowed down in the second half of the season, Jones hasn't been able to push the Giants toward victory. New York's passing attack ranks 22nd in win probability added since Week 8. Over the entirety of the season, his average pass has traveled just 6.1 yards in the air, the third-shortest distance in the league. There's nothing wrong with throwing lots of short passes if you're moving the chains, but he also has a below average first-down rate (32.5%).
Contract for 2023: Jones will be an unrestricted free agent after the Giants declined his fifth-year option last April. General manager Joe Schoen could use the franchise tag and retain Jones for a projected $31.5 million, but with Barkley's contract talks stalling in midseason, the Giants might need to use that tag to keep their star running back. Most teams would value locking up their starting quarterback before their running back, but Barkley is understandably a priority in New York.
Jones has been fine while making about $4.2 million this season, but even if he doesn't get the franchise tag next year, he would expect to see a meaningful raise in free agency. He has been too good for backup money, but it's difficult to imagine many teams valuing the 25-year-old in the ballpark of that franchise tag at $30 million. The Giants are more invested in seeing Jones succeed than any other team, and the brain trust which drafted Jones -- Dave Gettleman and Pat Shurmur -- is long gone.
The closest situation that is comparable to Jones might be Jameis Winston, who had an effective half season for the Saints in 2021 before tearing an ACL. Winston signed a two-year, $28 million pact. Jones should top that mark if he stays healthy, and a two-year deal in the $36 million to $40 million range would likely be his best-case scenario. I'm not sure there would be a huge market for him at that price, which is why the Giants might be willing to let Jones test the waters in free agency before bringing him back.
Other internal candidates: Tyrod Taylor was signed to play behind Jones. He has thrown eight pass attempts across a pair of games. Half of Taylor's $5.4 million base salary in 2023 is guaranteed, so it's likely he'll be back next year. Given that he has posted a 74.3 passer rating since leaving the Bills in 2017, though, he shouldn't be in line to start for an extended period of time. Journeyman Davis Webb will also be out of a contract next year.
Ties to any likely free agents: Schoen and coach Brian Daboll arrived from Buffalo, where they had Mitch Trubisky last season. Trubisky threw only eight passes during his lone year there, and the Giants didn't make any sort of significant effort to sign him in free agency this offseason. The Steelers will likely cut Trubisky this offseason, so the Giants could target him as a Jones replacement if they want a short-term solution.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: One of the rookies in the 2023 draft class. When Bills general manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott arrived in Buffalo in 2017, they inherited Taylor and made an unexpected trip to the postseason in their debut campaign. They still went out after the season and traded up for Josh Allen. Schoen and Daboll likely will try to find their own Allen in the draft, either in 2023 or 2024. Daboll spent a year as the offensive coordinator at Alabama, so I suspect he's getting all the intel he needs on Bryce Young from former boss Nick Saban.
New York Jets
Current starter: Zach Wilson
What happened in Week 15: In his return to the starting lineup, Wilson went 18-for-35 for 317 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in a 20-17 loss to the Lions. While he made a nice throw on a 40-yard touchdown pass to C.J. Uzomah I'd argue he didn't play as well as those numbers indicate. It took some spectacular catches on contested balls and some desperate heaves to get Wilson over 300 yards, and that came against one of the league's worst pass defenses.
How has it gone in 2022? Not exactly as the Jets had planned. Wilson tore the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason, and after returning, the Jets' defense masked his struggles in a series of victories. Wilson was benched after a loss to the Patriots and a disastrous postgame press conference, and he was only restored to the lineup after Mike White fractured a rib in last week's loss against the Bills.
White posted a nearly flawless game in his season debut before battling through a pair of difficult losses to the Vikings and Bills. His game against the Bears was exciting, but White completed 57.4% of his passes and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt over the ensuing two starts, with his raw numbers inflated by averaging more than 50 passes per contest. White might be an upgrade on Wilson, but he hasn't been a starting-caliber passer.
Joe Flacco started three games to begin the season and also inexplicably averaged more than 50 pass attempts per game. His completion percentage (58.2%) and yards per attempt (5.7) are both well below average, although he did throw four touchdowns in a dramatic comeback victory over the Browns. Over his past several seasons, Flacco has consistently been a middling passer who protects the football, which would be a great fit for this current iteration of the Jets, if not a particularly exciting option.
Contract for 2023: Flacco and White are both unrestricted free agents. Wilson will enter Year 3 of a four-year, $35.2 million deal that is fully guaranteed. The Jets could get out of the remaining $9.3 million if they trade Wilson this offseason. They won't have to decide on his fifth-year option for 2025 until April 2024, so they could choose to kick the can down the road for one more season and wait to see if Wilson turns things around next season.
Other internal candidates: CFL export Chris Streveler, who threw 25 passes over two seasons with the Cardinals, is on the New York practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: With several offensive coaches from Kyle Shanahan's staff in San Francisco, the Jets should be familiar with several of the quarterbacks who suited up before Trey Lance's arrival in the Bay Area. In addition to backup options C.J. Beathard, and Nick Mullens, the most notable option of the bunch should be Jimmy Garoppolo. All three will be unrestricted free agents after the season.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Garoppolo makes too much sense for a team with a championship-caliber defense and plenty of young offensive playmakers. The organization was committed to Wilson, but after starting his career with two disastrous seasons, the Jets shouldn't sacrifice competing to see whether Wilson can turn things around. And likewise, they are the perfect landing spot for Garoppolo if he wants to compete for playoff berths every season.
The Jets could choose to keep Wilson on as the backup for the oft-injured Garoppolo or trade him for draft capital. They won't get anything close to the No. 2 overall pick in return for him, but a midround pick could be possible if a team picking toward the end of the round wants to take a shot at a former top prospect. The Buccaneers and Vikings come to mind as possible landing spots in a Wilson deal.
San Francisco 49ers
Current starter: Brock Purdy
What happened in Week 15: The rookie seventh-round pick posted his second consecutive quality start in two tries, going 17-of-26 for 217 yards with two touchdowns in a 21-13 victory over the Seahawks. Purdy now has as many starts with a 100-plus passer rating in his debut season as every other rookie seventh-round pick in league history combined.
How has it gone in 2022? It has been only two starts for Purdy. We've seen two solid starts from plenty of other replacement-level quarterbacks in the past. Dallas' Cooper Rush comes to mind earlier this season. Purdy has been ahead for the vast majority of his snaps so far, so he hasn't been stuck in situations where he needs to throw the ball for the 49ers to get back into a game. He's getting help from coach Kyle Shanahan and an excellent group of playmakers, but he also has found the likes of Jauan Jennings and Tyler Kroft for conversions and big plays, too.
Purdy doesn't offer the rushing ability of Trey Lance or the veteran nous of Jimmy Garoppolo, but if he continues to play the way he has over these past three games, the 49ers are going to be in a fascinating position. Lance didn't get enough time to prove anything about his professional viability before suffering his ankle injury, but Purdy has looked confident and competent. He's also playing on a cheap contract, which is a major factor for a team that wants to fit as many expensive pieces around its quarterback as possible.
Contract for 2023: Purdy will be entering Year 2 of a four-year, $3.7 million deal. He'll make a little more if he plays regular snaps as time goes on, but he would be the league's least expensive starting quarterback. If Shanahan can approximate Garoppolo's production from Purdy at that cost, Purdy would also be one of the most valuable players in the league, generating about $30 million in surplus value per year.
Lance will be entering Year 3 of a four-year, $34.1 million contract, all of which is fully guaranteed. The 49ers will have to decide on Lance's fifth-year option at the end of the 2023 season, which makes the utter lack of information we have about him after his first two years in the league even more frustrating. Even if Lance is the Week 1 starter next season, there's a chance he gets injured again, leaving the 49ers to make a decision about guaranteeing his deal through 2025 after just a handful of NFL snaps.
Garoppolo will be an unrestricted free agent. The 49ers are projected to hold about $13 million in cap space before addressing their free agent class, which includes Garoppolo, cornerback Jimmie Ward and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey. Franchising Garoppolo would be difficult to justify, and Purdy's emergence as a viable passer makes it tougher to bring back Garoppolo in case something goes wrong with Lance again next season. I would expect Garoppolo to leave during the offseason, which would put the Niners in position to net a third-round compensatory pick if they play that game correctly.
Other internal candidates: Veteran journeyman Josh Johnson was added to back up Purdy; he will become a free agent and then inevitably return to the 49ers sometime in 2024. Jacob Eason, a fourth-round pick in 2020, threw five passes for the Colts and five more for the Panthers before hitting the San Francisco practice squad. He'll likely return to the practice squad again in 2023.
Ties to any likely free agents: Lots, but they might not need to add another quarterback with Lance and Purdy in the mix. Then again, given how injuries have impacted this quarterback room over the past few years under Shanahan, you would forgive general manager John Lynch & Co. if they want to go five or six deep at the game's most important position.
C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens -- all former 49ers quarterbacks -- are unrestricted free agents this offseason. I wonder if Matt Ryan might make his way here if (or when) he's cut by the Colts, given that he knows the Shanahan offense from their time together in Atlanta and would probably be in the best possible situation to try to win a Super Bowl ring. Ryan could also choose to retire.
Oh, and then there's the small matter of Tom Brady and the possibility of the game's most legendary quarterback returning home to play for his favorite childhood team. It wouldn't be the easiest financial fit for the 49ers -- and they've already sent three first-round picks away to acquire Lance -- but if Brady shows up and says he wants to play, how can they say no?
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A veteran to serve as the third-stringer behind Lance and Purdy.
Seattle Seahawks
Current starter: Geno Smith
What happened in Week 15: Smith struggled against the fearsome 49ers defense, going 31 of 44 for 238 yards, an average of just 5.4 yards per attempt, in the 21-13 loss. He didn't turn the ball over for the first time in six weeks, but the Seahawks didn't score a touchdown until 3:35 remained in the game. They have now lost four of their past five and fallen to 7-7.
How has it gone in 2022? Do you remember the 2020 season, when we all spent the first half of the season wondering how Russell Wilson had never received an MVP vote and were sure Wilson would get one? And then, in the second half, he struggled and wasn't in the MVP consideration? This feels like a less dramatic version of that season with Smith in the starting role.
Over the first nine weeks of the season, while we weren't having the same conversation, Smith was a legitimate MVP candidate. He was completing 73.1% of his passes and posting a plus-7.1% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), with 15 touchdown passes and four picks. He was responsible for just five giveaways through nine games, and that was a winning formula for Seattle
Across the five ensuing games, Smith's 54.6 QBR ranks 16th. His CPOE is still above average, but it's dropped to plus-3.4%. He is averaging nearly 8 yards per attempt, but he has turned the ball over seven times. He hasn't been the problem for the Seahawks, but he has gone from playing like a superstar to falling more into the pleasant surprise category.
Contract for 2023: Smith will be an unrestricted free agent, as will backup Drew Lock, who was acquired as part of the Wilson deal. The closest comparable for a stunning breakout season after years of serving as a backup for Smith would be Case Keenum's 2017 season with the Vikings. Adjusting for the rise in the salary cap over that time frame, Smith could be looking at a two-year deal approaching $50 million.
The Seahawks could use the franchise tag to keep Smith on a one-year deal for $31.5 million, and that might be the most obvious path for a team without many other significant free agents this offseason. I'm not sure there's a more significant deal waiting for him on the open market, though, so they might be willing to let him explore his options.
Other internal candidates: Lock hasn't played a single regular-season snap since joining the organization, and barring an injury to Smith, it seems unlikely we'll see Lock before the end of 2022. General manager John Schneider reportedly chose to make a trade with the Broncos specifically to target Lock, so given their prior interest, it wouldn't be a surprise if the team brought him back on a new deal to serve as their backup next season. Journeyman Sean Mannion is on the practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: None I could find.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: A rookie with the top-five pick from the Broncos. Smith has been extremely valuable and should get an opportunity to start again in 2023, but he's already 32 and will be much more expensive next season. It would make sense for the Seahawks to both bring him back and draft their quarterback of the future in April.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current starter: Tom Brady
What happened in Week 15: After arguably their best first half of football all season led to a 17-3 halftime lead over the surging Bengals, the Buccaneers collapsed in the second half of a 34-23 loss. Brady turned the ball over four times, marking his first game with four turnovers in a half since Oct. 28, 2001, in the legendary quarterback's fifth career start. Joe Burrow, who rode a series of short fields to four second-half touchdown passes, was four years old in October of 2001.
How has it gone in 2022? The Buccaneers have fallen apart as a product of injuries, missing roster depth and a lack of adjustments from their coaching staff. Brady looks physically capable, but amid a weekly inability to get on the same page with Mike Evans, inconsistent pass protection and a woeful running game, the offense has failed to launch at any meaningful level. They rank 22nd in EPA per play on offense this season, down from third a year ago.
Brady is still physically capable of making throws and picking teams apart in quick game, but the stuff outside of his core competencies is fading. He ranks 26th in QBR on deep passes. His 6.5 QBR against pass pressure is 30th, ahead of only Carson Wentz, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. I don't think Brady trusts his pass protection, and it would be hard for anybody to blame him.
Contract for 2023: Brady will be an unrestricted free agent on a team that currently projects to be $40 million over the salary cap. Brady is responsible for $35 million in dead money, which the Bucs can restructure if he re-signs with the team before the new league year begins in March. Tampa will need to go on a Saints-style restructuring spree to get under the cap, but it has constraints which weren't there when Brady arrived three years ago.
Blaine Gabbert and practice squad passer Ryan Griffin, famous for guiding an intoxicated Brady through the team's Super Bowl celebration, are also free agents after the season.
Other internal candidates: The only quarterback under contract next season is 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask, who has been underwhelming during his preseason reps. Trask is yet to play a regular-season snap, but nothing out of Tampa Bay suggests the organization is enthused about Trask's development behind Brady through two seasons. Trask could still figure into a competition, but he's not just going to inherit the starting job without any challengers.
Ties to any likely free agents: The organization is familiar with Jameis Winston, who spent five years with Tampa and worked underneath Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator in 2019. Winston is likely to be released by the Saints. Quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen was in that role under Adam Gase in Miami with Ryan Tannehill, who could also come available this offseason.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: The Buccaneers have a veteran core on both sides of the ball, so I would be surprised if they went for a long-term project at quarterback. I suspect they'll make a serious effort to bring back Brady, but they'll be in the running for one of the other veterans in the market if he retires or heads elsewhere. This would be the perfect landing spot for Derek Carr, although a more realistic option might be Geno Smith or Jacoby Brissett.
Tennessee Titans
Current starter: Ryan Tannehill
What happened in Week 15: Tannehill appeared to become the latest Titans player to suffer a serious injury, as he was carted off after hurting his ankle in the first quarter against the Chargers on Sunday. He surprisingly returned to the game and went 15 of 22 for 165 yards, even sneaking in the game-tying touchdown from a yard out on Tennessee's final possession. The Titans kicked the extra point to tie and then never saw the ball again, as Justin Herbert drove the Chargers downfield for a game-winning field goal.
How has it gone in 2022? Tannehill was blamed for Tennessee's offensive struggles during the second half of the 2021 season and their subsequent postseason loss as the No. 1 seed at home to the Bengals. He deserves some of the blame, having thrown interceptions on 2.6% of his passes in the regular season before tossing three picks in the Bengals loss, but the Titans offense also suffered from a distinct lack of Derrick Henry during that second half.
With Henry back in the fold, Tannehill has been better. His interception rate has dropped back down to 1.7%, and his yards per attempt is back up from 7.0 a year ago to 7.8 this season. The Titans still don't ask Tannehill to throw the ball very often, as he's averaging just over 27 pass attempts per contest, but he has been the quarterback they expected in 2022.
Third-round pick Malik Willis has been forced into five games, including a pair of starts, by injuries to Tannehill or the arrival of garbage time. He's not ready to play quarterback at the NFL level, having gone a combined 17 of 38 for 177 yards with an interception. The expectation was that Willis would need more time than the average rookie to adapt to the professional game, so I don't think what we've seen writes Willis off as a future solution, but the Titans can't just assume Willis will be ready to take over as their starter next season.
Contract for 2023: Willis will be in the second year of his rookie contract. Tannehill will be entering the final season of his four-year, $118 million deal, but after guaranteeing the first three years of his extension, the Titans actually have flexibility in Year 4. They can free up as much as $27 million on their 2023 cap by releasing him, or they can create cap room by giving the 34-year-old a new deal. Both scenarios seem plausible, and the decision to fire general manager Jon Robinson earlier this month might hint at some disagreement in the building about which path the Titans should take.
Other internal candidates: Kevin Hogan, a 2016 fifth-round pick who started a game for the 0-16 Browns in 2017, is on the practice squad.
Ties to any likely free agents: Coach Mike Vrabel is old friends with Tom Brady from their time as players in New England. Ten of Vrabel's 12 receiving touchdowns as a pro came on passes from Brady, so they have a rapport that Brady simply doesn't have with other coaches around the league. Brady would be an upgrade on Tannehill, although the Titans don't have much in the way of playmakers at receiver.
If the Raiders do move on from Derek Carr, Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing worked with Carr when he was coaching in Oakland as the quarterbacks coach and eventual coordinator. If the price was right for a trade, Carr would also be an upgrade on Tannehill, and he's three years younger than his Titans counterpart.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: The final three games might weigh more heavily in Tennessee's future than they do for other teams around the league. If the Titans continue to collapse and blow their massive lead in the AFC South to the Jaguars, I wonder if that spurs more changes, which could include starting over at quarterback with Willis and a veteran passer. If they hold on and right the ship and even win a playoff game, they seem more likely to stick with their core and give Tannehill an extension for cap relief.
Washington Commanders
Current starter: Taylor Heinicke
What happened in Week 15: With some questionable pass interference calls in the mix, Heinicke and the Commanders' offense disappointed in a 20-12 loss to the rival Giants. He went 17 of 29 for 249 yards with a touchdown and added three carries for 33 yards, but he and his pals were able to muster only seven points on three trips to the red zone.
How has it gone in 2022? Surprisingly well! The Commanders traded for Carson Wentz to avoid another year with Heinicke as the starter, but after Wentz went down with a fractured finger in Week 6, Heinicke has kept winning. Outside of his sack rate, his numbers haven't been appreciably different from those of his predecessor's, but the results have been dramatically different. Wentz went 2-4 in his six starts, including a loss to the Titans in which he threw an interception from the 2-yard line down three points in the final few seconds of the game.
Heinicke has gone 5-2-1, and while I don't think teams should be using win-loss records as a meaningful gauge of quarterback performances, I'm not sure this organization feels the same way. He did enough to win the job away from Wentz while he's injured, and if the Commanders continue to push into the postseason, coach Ron Rivera might be more open to keeping Heinicke in the starting role in 2023 than he was a year ago.
Contract for 2023: Wentz is under contract, but probably not for long. He has two years and $53.4 million remaining on the ill-fated extension he signed with Philadelphia in 2019, but none of that money is guaranteed. The Commanders have to be planning to release the 29-year-old, and he will be looking at backup money if he chooses to continue playing. Something in line with Marcus Mariota's two-year, $18.8 million deal with the Falcons is probably where Wentz's next contract would land.
Heinicke's two-year, $4.8 million extension expires after the season. He's in line for a raise to upper-echelon backup money, either in Washington or elsewhere. That market comes in around $7 million per year. The Commanders will have $45 million in cap space if they release Wentz, so they shouldn't have any trouble affording a new deal for Heinicke if he continues to win games.
Other internal candidates: The two young quarterbacks on the roster are 2020 fifth-round pick Jake Fromm and rookie fifth-rounder Sam Howell, neither of whom have seen the field this season. Rivera didn't believe Howell was ready to step in as recently as a few weeks ago, so it still seems as if Howell is on the developmental track as the team's third quarterback.
Ties to any likely free agents: Quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese served in that role for the Browns in 2018, when they used the No. 1 overall pick on Baker Mayfield. Mayfield played some of his best football as a rookie and declined after Zampese left the organization the following offseason, but correlation isn't always causation. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner was also the quarterbacks coach in Minnesota when Teddy Bridgewater started his career.
Most likely QB they'll pursue: Tom Brady. Remember that the Commanders tried to trade for Russell Wilson before coming up short and landing Wentz instead. Bizarrely, while Wentz has struggled, missing out on Wilson has been one of the best things to happen to this franchise. I would expect Rivera to look toward veterans who represent significant upgrades on Heinicke, and he can pitch Brady on an excellent defense and a burgeoning group of offensive playmakers. The idea of Brady in burgundy seems bizarre, but then again, who thought the greatest player in league history would wear pewter?