We're five weeks into the 2022 NFL season. That's enough games for us to start looking at some trends, both around the league and with specific teams playing particularly good or bad. We can't be sure these trends will stick in a month from now -- since it is still early -- but through a month of games, we've seen some things worth exploring.
I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. Offense is down, but for some unexpected veteran quarterbacks, offense is actually up. There has been a good amount of parity across the league in 2022, as well as lopsided teams with a good offense and a bad defense (or vice versa).
Let's look through some interesting numbers here, from the best units (San Francisco's defense) to the worst (Indianapolis' offense).
Note: Numbers above do not include the Thursday night's Commanders-Bears game.
1. Offense is down across the league -- so far
NFL teams are averaging 21.8 points per game so far, down from 23.0 points per game last season and 24.8 in 2020. If this continues, it will be only the second season since 2010 in which teams averaged less than 22.0 points per game -- the other was 2017, when the average was 21.7 points.
Looking at other offensive numbers, it's hard to figure out where the drop is coming from. Passing touchdowns per game are down to their lowest level since 2008, but otherwise, passing numbers are similar to last year. Net yards per attempt is almost exactly the same (6.21 yards this year vs. 6.22 last year). Completion rate, sacks and interceptions are also similar. And running games are more efficient than in recent years; the league is averaging 4.48 yards per carry right now, which would be the highest average since at least the AFL-NFL merger.
Given that the underlying numbers are similar to past years, don't be surprised if scoring goes up in the next few weeks, before the inevitable decline in scoring that comes with bad weather games in December and January.
2. This season has parity
No matter how you want to measure it, the theme to the season is parity. The best teams are not as good as the best teams usually are after a month, and the worst teams are not as bad as usual either.
Let's start with the fact that 20 of the league's 32 teams were somewhere between 2-3 and 3-2 entering this week's games. Only Philadelphia (5-0) is still unbeaten, and no team is still winless.
We've seen parity in individual games as well. Through five weeks, 61 out of 80 games have been within one score at some point in the fourth quarter, which is an NFL record.
Our advanced stats at Football Outsiders show further just how closely packed this year's teams are.
We have 42 years of DVOA data, going all the way back to 1981, and this year's standard deviation of DVOA for the 32 teams is the lowest ever after Week 5. Indianapolis, currently in last place overall, has the second-highest rating ever for the team in last place after Week 5. Seattle, our top-rated offense, has the second-lowest rating ever for a top offense after Week 5.
3. Geno Smith is among quarterbacks playing surprisingly well
Let's start with Smith, quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks, our No. 1 offense according to DVOA. The Seahawks are currently ahead of better-regarded offenses such as Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo.
Smith is ranked fourth in QBR, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. It is not hyperbole to say that this season has truly come from out of nowhere for Smith. His 74.8 QBR is shocking as he has never put up higher than a 51.8 QBR in a season with more than 50 pass attempts.
I've taken a look at other teams similar to Seattle who have dramatically outplayed preseason projections on offense over the last dozen years. The 2011 Bills with Ryan Fitzpatrick started strong; so did the 2014 Browns with Brian Hoyer and the 2018 Broncos with Case Keenum. For the most part, teams similar to the Seahawks -- hot starts from veteran backups -- have faded away over the rest of the year.
On the other hand, a further look into the stats doesn't suggest that Smith is doing anything fluky. He still ranks fourth in QBR if you remove play-action, for example. Seattle is near the bottom of the league in its use of screen passes. While some backups who succeed as starters are taking advantage of situations that allow them to play conservatively -- Cooper Rush of Dallas, for example -- Smith is not playing conservatively at all.
The Seahawks have spent more game time behind or tied than ahead this year. And Smith isn't living on dinks and dunk -- by Football Outsiders' DYAR numbers, Smith leads the NFL in value on deep passes of 16 or more yards through the air.
Smith isn't the only veteran backup who has succeeded as a starter early in the 2022 season. Rush, in his sixth NFL season but receiving his first extended playing time, is fifth in QBR. Jacoby Brissett of Cleveland, filling in for the suspended Deshaun Watson, is currently sixth in QBR.
4. There are some good offenses paired with lousy defenses
If Smith is playing so well, why does Seattle have a losing record? Well, one problem is that the defense has been terrible this year. Seattle currently pairs its No. 1 DVOA offense with the No. 31 DVOA defense. Do you prefer standard stats? Seattle's defense ranks 31st in points allowed and dead last in yards allowed.
The Seahawks are only the sixth team in the past 20 years to rank in the top three of offensive DVOA and bottom three of defensive DVOA through Week 5. (The others: 2011 Patriots, 2013 Packers, 2013 Chargers, 2017 Patriots and 2021 Chiefs.)
Seattle is just one of a number of teams that pairs a strong offense with a bad defense. Cleveland has the best running game in the league and ranks fourth in offensive DVOA, but is 30th on defense. Miami is still sixth in offensive DVOA, despite playing a game with third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson, but is also 29th on defense.
If you are curious, the 1996 Baltimore Ravens are the only team to ever finish a season with the No. 1 offense and also the last-place defense in the league, according to DVOA.
5. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been good
There's one more interesting offense to talk about from the early part of the season, and that's the Falcons. Most of us penciled the Falcons in as having one of the league's worst offenses for this season, and we figured the only things to watch for were Kyle Pitts racking up fantasy points and how long it would take for the team to pull Marcus Mariota and give rookie Desmond Ridder a shot under center.
Well, surprise, the Falcons rank 10th in the league in both offensive DVOA and points scored. And an even bigger surprise is that the Falcons are doing this without a big contribution from last year's No. 4 overall pick Pitts, who has just 150 receiving yards and no touchdowns in four games.
Instead, this offense is driven by a much-improved offensive line. The Falcons have gone from 26th to third in pass block win rate and from 29th to 18th in run block win rate. Success beyond that initial blocking has helped the Falcons build the No. 2 running game in the league according to DVOA. Cordarrelle Patterson, though currently injured, is second in rushing DYAR (total value) in the NFL behind only Nick Chubb.
The problem for the Falcons? It's the same as for the Seahawks, Browns and Dolphins: Their defense currently ranks 27th in the league.
6. The Indianapolis Colts offense is extremely bad
Now we turn toward an offense that is not hitting on cylinders, and the veteran quarterback who left Atlanta and is having all kinds of problems in his new home: Matt Ryan.
The Colts offense has been terrible this year, dead last in DVOA. What really stands out is that the Colts are dead last in both passing and rushing. Given the ridiculously good season that Jonathan Taylor had a year ago, that's as big of a surprise as the good seasons that Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett are putting up -- just in the other direction.
The Colts are 28th in offensive success rate, 31st in EPA per play and 31st in yards per play (once you take out kneels and spikes). Another issue is fumbles, as the Colts have fumbled the ball a league-leading 13 times on offense. No other team has over 10 offensive fumbles. The Colts have been a bit lucky to recover nine of those 13 fumbles, as well as three fumbles on special teams.
In a mirror image of Ryan's old team in Atlanta, the Colts' decline is led in part by the decline of their offensive line. Last year, the Colts ranked seventh in run block win rate and 20th in pass block win rate. This year, those numbers are 25th and 31st, respectively.
7. We're seeing some breakout receivers
We're seeing some really good performances from young receivers, and not necessarily the names you were expecting before the season. For example, Baltimore's Devin Duvernay currently leads all qualifying receivers in receiving DVOA. He has caught 17 out of 20 targets for 226 yards and three touchdowns. The Cowboys' Noah Brown is another good young receiver, taking advantage of Michael Gallup's absence in the first month to catch 19 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown (ninth in DVOA).
Mack Hollins isn't a young player -- this is his sixth year in the NFL -- but he's another surprising wide receiver having a strong early season. He currently ranks 10th in receiving DVOA and has caught 17 out of 28 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown, plus he drew a 47-yard pass interference flag for the Raiders.
The only asterisk on all these performances is that it is still early in the season. We'll have to see more games to see if these breakouts are for real. None of the receivers mentioned above are currently among the top 30 in targets.
8. The San Francisco 49ers defense ranks No. 1, but injuries are piling up
The 49ers are 3-2 with the best defense of the year so far by DVOA. They rank first against the run and fifth against the pass. They have a very low variance, meaning that they've been extremely consistent from week to week. The question now is whether they can continue to play this well going forward after a number of injuries to important defenders.
Starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is done for the year with a torn ACL. Safety Jimmie Ward has dealt with hamstring injuries and now has a broken hand. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is on the injured reserve with a knee injury. And the defensive line is dealing with a number of injuries: most importantly, a groin injury that could cost Nick Bosa time, but also a foot injury for Arik Armstead and a knee injury for Javon Kinlaw.
The good news is that underlying stat trends suggest even more success for the 49ers defense in the future. For example, third-down defense tends to be less consistent than defense on early downs. And the 49ers happen to be just 20th in defensive DVOA on third downs, compared to ranking first on first downs and second on second downs. San Francisco also ranks 30th against runs in the red zone, and that's not likely to continue.
9. The Philadelphia Eagles are shutting down wide receivers
Another defense that has played well this year belongs to the Eagles. They are fifth in defensive DVOA right now, including third against the pass. And what stands out from their pass defense is the way they have shut down the opposition's top receivers.
Overall, the Eagles lead the league in DVOA against all passes to wide receivers. They rank first against No. 1 wide receivers, including a game where they held Justin Jefferson to just 48 yards. They also rank second against No. 2 wide receivers. None of those five players have gained more than 52 yards against the Eagles. Washington's Jahan Dotson caught just two of eight targets for 10 yards.
Other defenses have allowed fewer catches or yards to wide receivers, but when it comes to per-target efficiency, nobody can beat the Philadelphia secondary this season.
10. The Arizona Cardinals defense has collapsed
The Cardinals are 2-3 and would be 1-4 if not for a fumble recovery touchdown in overtime against Las Vegas back in Week 2. The offense has been a disappointment, ranking just 23rd in DVOA so far, but at least that side of the ball has hope with DeAndre Hopkins coming back in a week from a six-game suspension. The defense has been an even bigger disappointment, ranking 26th so far.
You may not realize it, but the defense has seen a bigger drop than the offense compared to last season. The offense was only 15th and 19th in DVOA over the last two years. The defense, however, ranked sixth last year and 10th the year before. It's been quietly very good in recent seasons. This year, it is not.
Mostly, the problem is pass defense. The Cardinals are 12th against the run but 27th against the pass. Arizona has actually been very good against opposing No. 1 wide receivers, third in DVOA, but they're getting gashed to bits by tight ends, giving up an average of 84 yards per game. And they aren't getting to the quarterback at all, ranking last in the league in sacks as well as adjusted sack rate.
The good news here might be that there's more pass rush than the raw sack totals indicate. The Cardinals are seventh right now in pass rush win rate, and ESPN Stats & Info charting has them 13th in pressure rate.
But they don't affect the quarterback enough when they get pressure: Arizona is dead last allowing 6.3 yards per dropback when they pressure the quarterback. If the Cardinals can get that pressure home, their pass defense may improve and give them a chance to make a run at a playoff spot.