Predicting NFL Week 6 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

Jeremy Fowler
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Jeremy Fowler
senior NFL national reporter
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Dan Graziano
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Dan Graziano
senior NFL national reporter
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Oct 12, 2022, 06:55 AM ET

Welcome to NFL Week 6, where we've waved goodbye to our final remaining winless team (the Houston Texans), are still closely monitoring our final undefeated squad (the Philadelphia Eagles) and have just fired our first coach of the 2022 NFL season (Carolina's Matt Rhule).

The drama is certain to continue this week, as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills visit Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle of MVP -- and Super Bowl LVII -- contenders. Might someone other than the Bills or Chiefs represent the AFC on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? It's among the topics ESPN's NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler tackle in this week's roundtable.

As the mid-October schedule beckons, Graz and Fowler are also here to assess the best offseason transaction of 2022, the teams that have improved the most in one specific personnel area, and whether resurgent Geno Smith, Daniel Jones or reeling Baker Mayfield might have the best chance to remain an NFL starting quarterback in 2023. There's also some chatter on Russell Wilson's contract, top game predictions and fantasy predictions, and all of the most interesting tidbits from the Graziano and Fowler notebooks.

Who is the biggest challenger to the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC?

Graziano: The Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah, I know, they just lost to the Ravens and are 2-3 and the line still doesn't look good ... I know all of that. But their losses are by three, three and two points. They're playing good defense. An offensive line gets better the more the guys get used to one another. Joe Burrow is still the quarterback, they're still loaded on offense and they have the experience of last year to convince them that, (A) they can finish strong, and (B) they can beat the Chiefs head-to-head.

I'm not saying they repeat, but I agree with the premise of the question (that Buffalo and Kansas City are the class of the conference), and you asked who I thought could challenge them. Give me the defending conference champs.

Fowler: Strong to the hole, Dan! I'm still riding with the Los Angeles Chargers here, and I'm uneasy about the pick because of the team's uneven start and injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa. But the roster was built for contention, and the team will get Keenan Allen and Bosa back eventually. Save the lapse in Jacksonville, the defense has improved. Justin Herbert is the quarterback I'd take over all but maybe a few. And Los Angeles can win in different ways, which it showed with a power running game against Cleveland last week. Baltimore is a close second for me.

Through five weeks, what has been the best offseason transaction?

Fowler: The Bills' signing of Von Miller. Miller's production (4.0 sacks through five games) stands on its own, but his value transcends individual numbers. Buffalo's defense is pacing for 54 sacks on the year, well above last year's total of 42. His presence opens rushing lanes for Buffalo's young, talented defensive linemen beside him. Plenty of receivers deserve the nod, too.

Graziano: Hard to argue with that one, but how about the Philadelphia Eagles' trade for wide receiver A.J. Brown? They believed Jalen Hurts needed a No. 1 wideout, and more importantly one who could make plays in the middle part of the field where Hurts had struggled in the past. The pairing has been sensational so far, and the Eagles look like as complete a team as any in the NFL.

What's the biggest improvement you've seen from a team in a specific area from last season?

Graziano: The Baltimore Ravens' turnover differential. Baltimore was minus-11 in turnover differential in 2021 -- the Bears, Jets, Panthers and Jaguars were the only teams worse. Through five games this year, the Ravens have a plus-5 turnover differential. Only the Eagles (plus-9) are better.

Baltimore has eight interceptions already this season after collecting only nine all of last year. And while they're still too high in the giveaways department (six), the fact that they're tied with the Eagles and Bills for the league lead in takeaways (11) has offset that so far.

Fowler: The Detroit Lions' offense moving the ball with efficiency. Last week's shutout vs. New England was a curious case, but even with that dud on its résumé, Detroit ranks third in points (28) and yards (411.8) per game. The Lions' attack was unwatchable at times last year on the way to a 25th-ranked finish (19.1 points per game).

Quarterback Jared Goff raved about offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the preseason, praising his organization and playcall sequencing. That has shown up in a big way in the passing and running attack. Not sure how many more games Detroit will win, but the Lions will be a threat each week.

More likely to be a starting NFL quarterback in 2023: Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith?

Fowler: Gotta go with Smith, who's playing like a guy who has waited seven years for another opportunity to show he has the talent and acumen to start in the NFL. Seattle has structured a good offense around him, but these aren't manufactured yards -- he's making impressive downfield throws while ranking fourth in QBR (74.6). Mayfield, at least early in the season, looks overmatched without the backing of the Browns' top rushing attack.

Jones makes this interesting because he was due a winning stretch like this. He has worked hard and never complained as the team cratered around him. He's flawed, yes, and not overly prolific, but he has also shown real resolve and made some key plays in late-game victories vs. good teams such as Tennessee and Green Bay. He has a chance to start somewhere next year.

Graziano: I agree with everything you say here about Smith. I just wonder whether the Seahawks, armed with two first-round picks in next year's draft, would use those picks to find an upgrade -- and if said upgrade would be expected to play right away. In that case, could Geno start for someone else? If he keeps doing what he's doing, I don't see why he couldn't.

But Jones is interesting to me here, because I think he's shown the Giants a little something so far this year. They're 4-1 with basically no receivers, and Jones played on a bad ankle and beat the Packers in London last week. I don't know whether the Giants would consider re-signing Jones after this year. My sense is that the decision hasn't been made yet. But especially considering how little help he has around him outside of Saquon Barkley, Jones is so far making a strong case to be considered as the long-term option in New York.

Are you buying or selling the Vikings as better than the Packers right now?

Graziano: Selling. They're 4-1 and beat the Packers in Week 1, but I don't think the Vikings are without their problems. A few hours after Green Bay blew that 17-3 lead to the Giants in London, Minnesota blew a 21-3 lead to the Bears. The Vikings just happened to come back at the end to win it. Which isn't nothing, I grant you, but I still say the Packers have the better overall roster and of course the better quarterback. I'm sticking with Green Bay.

Fowler: Yeah, I'm selling, but it's close. Green Bay's defense looks more unsettled than I expected -- a unit this talented shouldn't have one interception through five games -- and the passing game looks inexpensive, which it is. But Green Bay's run of three straight 13-win seasons doesn't fall apart because of the absence of Davante Adams. I'm guessing the Packers' attack will look much different later in the year. Love what the Vikings are doing under Kevin O'Connell, but Aaron Rodgers wins the tiebreaker over Kirk Cousins, and the Vikings' defense is allowing nearly 370 yards per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the league.

From 1 to 10, how worried should Broncos fans be about Russell Wilson's contract?

Fowler: Let's say 6, which means mildly concerned. Five games of poor play, however, is a small sample against the backdrop of nearly a decade of excellence in Seattle. There's plenty of track record to suggest he'll turn it around. Wilson, for all his greatness, has a few deficiencies: He's 5-foot-11, and some league execs don't consider him an elite processor from the pocket. Seattle supported him with a running game, good defense and orchestrated throws on the move. Denver will need to do the same in its own way.

And the contract has give and take: The next three years are guaranteed but at reasonable cap hits ($17, $22 and $35.4 million). That number balloons to $55.4 million in 2025, but the guarantees in that year don't lock in until the fifth day of the 2024 league year.

Graziano: 5. I mean, it's not the fans' money, right? And I do think the salary cap is going to skyrocket in the next few years, meaning those cap hits won't be as onerous as some might think. I also think we're seeing the Wilson offense in Denver look as bad now as it ever will. I believe it'll get better, and that over the long haul the stability that Wilson brings will be a benefit to the organization. He has just had the misfortune of starting very badly in a year in which it seems all of their games are in prime time.

What's your top upset pick for Week 6?

Graziano: Patriots (+3) over Browns. We know Cleveland lives to run the ball. Well, guess what? So do the Patriots. These teams are very similar in their philosophies, and whether Mac Jones is back or not, the Pats know they have something going right now in the ground game. They'll have to lean on second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson, because it seems as if Damien Harris will have to miss a game or two because of his hamstring injury, but Stevenson looks up to the task and they have enough to fill in around him. I say New England beats Cleveland at its own game.

Fowler: Cowboys (+5) over Eagles. Dallas has allowed 12 points per game over the past three weeks with a flurry of a pass rush. The Cowboys appear to relish the challenge of continuing to win with a backup quarterback. The Eagles are probably the better team, but going 6-0 is incredibly tough, and the Cardinals nearly knocked them off last week.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Start Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie. Manning the slot in the Bills' offense has proved fruitful. McKenzie produced three touchdowns and 153 yards before entering the concussion protocol in Week 4, and rookie Khalil Shakir held it down with 75 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Assuming McKenzie is cleared for the Chiefs game, he should return to open patches of grass and yards.

Graziano: A George Kittle breakout game for the 49ers. Kittle has been a huge disappointment so far this year, even since coming back from injury. He has being asked to do a lot of things in the Niners' offense that aren't helpful to his fantasy numbers. But I'm betting he's a bigger part of the pass-catching game plan this week against an Atlanta team that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

I asked flat out Tuesday morning if a suspension (as opposed to just a fine) was within the range of potential outcomes for Raiders WR Davante Adams for shoving a cameraman in anger as he left the field Monday night in Kansas City, and I was told yes. The league is reviewing the matter for potential discipline, and it's entirely possible Adams has to miss time in addition to being fined for his actions. The Raiders are on a bye this upcoming week, so any decision on discipline, or any subsequent appeal, might not have to be expedited to the extent it would on a normal week. But keep an eye out for the potential, at least, of Adams not being available to the Raiders when they return from their bye in Week 7.
Teams are keeping an eye on the Carolina Panthers in case they decide to trade away players ahead of the Nov. 1 trade deadline. And while it's easy to focus on and get excited about the potential of running back Christian McCaffrey joining a contender like the Bills, the truth is McCaffrey is not likely to fetch enough in return to make it worth the Panthers' while. Trading him would leave them with a dead cap hit of about $8 million this year and about $18 million in 2023. Plus, teams don't tend to pay big prices for the running back position. The guy I have my eye on is edge rusher Brian Burns, who is just 24 years old and making about $2.3 million this year and about $16 million next year on his fifth-year option. The Panthers' 2019 first-round pick does play a position for which teams pay a premium price, and it's not unreasonable to imagine a contending team giving up a first-round pick for Burns if it's desperate enough for pass rush. And that's the key. There are currently four teams -- Houston, Philadelphia, Seattle, Detroit -- that have multiple first-round picks in next year's draft, and it's likely at least three of them will be looking for a quarterback. The ability to package picks and move up would give any of those teams an advantage right now on Carolina (unless, of course, Carolina secures the top pick), so the potential of having more than one first-rounder surely would get the Panthers' attention.
Two high-profile roughing the passer calls have generated attention early this week. And it's certainly worth having a conversation about how these rules are officiated and whether it could be done better. But there does not appear to be evidence of any kind of roughing the passer epidemic. Through five weeks, there have been 29 roughing the passer penalties called. This time last year (through Week 5), there had been 54 called. For the entire 2021 regular season, there were 161 roughing the passer calls. This year, the league is on pace for just 99. Either the players are following the rules better, the officials are letting more of these go or a combination of both. It's worth noting that, of the 29 called so far this year, six were called in Week 4 and nine in Week 5. This supports the notion that officials are more inclined to call roughing the passer in the wake of the Tua Tagovailoa concussion situation. But that's just a two-week sample, so it remains to be seen whether it becomes a trend. Overall, though, outside of Sunday's Bucs game and Monday's Chiefs game, there hasn't really been too much for the "football's getting too soft" crowd to complain about this year.
The competition committee report teams received in the offseason identified roughing the passer as a point of clarification, specifically reinforcing the parts of the rule that address forcible hits to the head or when a player on the ground swipes at the quarterback's legs. The report concluded that the league believes officials are officiating the "body weight" calls properly and that defenders are doing a better job of landing to the side of the quarterback instead of landing with their full body weight on him.

Fowler

Sean Payton's name will continue to buzz as the coaching cycle turns, and here's my understanding of his situation as it pertains to the Saints: Interested teams must request permission to speak with Payton, who is still under contract in New Orleans through 2024. If the Saints grant permission, then both sides must agree to compensation for a contractual release. It's an obligation similar to most contracts, and it wouldn't surprise if teams already have contacted New Orleans to get a feel for what it would take. So, yes, Carolina owner David Tepper pulling off a trade with an NFC South rival seems far-fetched. But ... every front office has its price. Trading him to an AFC team would be the most plausible option.
Expect the post-Matt-Rhule Panthers to take a two-tiered approach to the next few weeks of roster-building. Acquiring draft capital and shedding salary will be a strong consideration for the team, multiple rival front offices expect, especially with a quarterback-heavy draft looming. The Panthers could be in play for a top pick. And the Panthers have just nine total draft picks in 2023-'24. They would like to increase that total. But a few other factors are in play, I'm told: Carolina would like to bring more competition to the roster (particularly on the back end), and the NFC South is pretty wide-open. No team has taken a firm lead. Carolina's roster, as it stands, is good enough to win games, quarterback uncertainty notwithstanding. How to toe this line is something Carolina is working through this week. Unloading multiple pieces -- such as Robbie Anderson or even Christian McCaffrey if the right taker comes along -- without tearing down the roster might be the prudent move.
Pass-rusher Brian Burns and defensive tackle Derrick Brown are among the names garnering the most interest from teams. But keep in mind: The new coach will want to inherit a good defense, and players such as Burns and Brown are attractive pieces.
Mac Jones is improving his chances to play this week against Cleveland. One source classified his chances as "decent" but much depends on how the week of practice goes, and doctors will likely be involved in the decision. I'm told Jones has progressed each week and even made last week's decision to go with Bailey Zappe interesting. Jones is dealing with a high ankle sprain but appears to have avoided long-term issues or the need for immediate surgery. If Jones is healthy, I expect him to be the quarterback, even though the Zappe Hour is a great story that might not last long.