Predicting NFL Week 4 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

If high-level quarterback matchups are your thing -- and of course they are -- allow us to draw your attention to NFL Week 4. That's where you'll find MVP candidates Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills scheduled for a head-to-head meeting in Charm City. It's also where you'll find the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Tom Brady and Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes offering up an encore of their Super Bowl LV showdown, this time from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Beyond the biggest names are a quartet of younger guns -- the Bengals' Joe Burrow and Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa squaring off on Thursday night in Cincinnati, and the Eagles' Jalen Hurts and Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence battling Sunday in Philadelphia. Lawrence, who struggled as a rookie last season under the misbegotten Urban Meyer regime in Jacksonville, has seen his star rise in the early stages of 2022 with a Jags team that leads the AFC South.

ESPN Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler talked all things quarterback this week, also making their upset picks, offering fantasy advice and emptying their notebooks of all the latest chatter.

Jump to:
September mirages | Bad preseason picks
Sophomore QBs | Star QB matchups
NFC East contenders | Upset picks
Fantasy start/sit | Everything we're hearing

Which team's September performance will look the most like an aberration by the end of the season?

Graziano: I think the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be just fine. They've been in all three of their games at the end. They're still loaded at key positions on offense and defense. Joe Burrow's protection is not sustainable at its current level, but I don't think it'll stay at its current level. When I spoke earlier this season with Chiefs left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., he told me it took about six or seven weeks into the 2021 season before Kansas City's rebuilt offensive line felt it was jelling. It's not out of the question that Cincinnati's line will be playing a lot better by midseason than it has so far. Will the Bengals hold off the Ravens and repeat as division champs? Not as certain there, but I do believe Cincinnati will be a strong playoff contender before it's all said and done.

Fowler: Speaking of Thursday Night Football opponents, Dan, I'll go the other way and peg the Dolphins' 3-0 start as at least a slight aberration. This is a solid team but not No. 1-in-the-power-rankings good. The offense is relying heavily on two speedsters, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, manufacturing much of the offense, occupying 59 of the team's 101 total targets. Good defenses will make that reliance more difficult on a week-to-week basis. The running game is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, which is odd for a 49ers-based system.

Mike McDaniel has been able to surprise defenses early in the season because he doesn't have tendencies (Kyle Shanahan ran the offense in San Francisco), so opponents' adjustments are coming. Tua Tagovailoa has been great but also benefited greatly from a disastrous performance by Baltimore's secondary in Week 2. Anyway, I have the Dolphins as a fringe playoff team but not a true contender -- at least until I see more.

What's a preseason prediction you're already regretting, and what changed?

Fowler: Well, picking San Francisco as a favorite to win the NFC isn't looking great right now. I was counting on a more explosive offense under Trey Lance, and instead we get more Jimmy G and Trent Williams out for four to six weeks. George Kittle is once again in and out of the lineup. There is still plenty of time for San Francisco to regroup, and that defense is looking stout, but I'm not sure what the 49ers' identity is at this point. And I keep buying high on the Colts, and they remain too erratic to prove me right.

Graziano: I thought the Raiders were going to be a factor in the AFC West, even as tough as that division looks, because of the work they did in the offseason and because of the valuable experience so many of their players gained by rallying under difficult circumstances to reach the playoffs last season. Their 0-3 start, and the way it has unfolded with few answers on the offensive line and a surprisingly anemic pass rush, has me concerned.

How would you rank the sophomore quarterbacks right now?

Graziano: Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Justin Fields, with Zach Wilson and Trey Lance getting "incompletes" because of their health situations. Look, I don't know how you can watch Fields right now and not be at least a little concerned about (A) his ability to throw the ball and (B) the level of trust his team has in his ability to throw the ball. I expected him to be much better than he has been so far this year, given everything I was told about his leadership and commitment. Please understand: I'm not questioning either of those things. But they really didn't let him throw it against Green Bay when they were trailing the whole game, and when he threw it against Houston, it didn't look great. Very interested to see whether he can get something going with his arm against the Giants this week.

Fowler: Yeah, there's no choice but to start with Lawrence, whose 71.1 QBR ranks seventh in the NFL. Really impressive three-game stretch. From there, I'll go Mills, Jones, Wilson and Fields (with Lance as incomplete). Mills gets the nod at No. 2 because he has shown poise and pocket presence. As Chicago is clearly limiting Fields' passing opportunities, Houston is doing the opposite with Mills, who has 107 attempts, second on this list to Lawrence. The Texans clearly trust him, though a sluggish running game plays a part. Mills has two interceptions, but I don't put the late-game pick vs. Chicago on him. The ball was tipped. You could argue Wilson should be high on this list despite not playing. That's how uninspiring the two-through-five list is. I'm still waiting on Chicago to scheme Fields up some easy throws to get him going.

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady this week ... which of those four QBs most needs to beat his star counterpart?

Fowler: Mahomes. The Chiefs' offense has scored 17 points in back-to-back games after Mahomes' five-touchdown season debut against Arizona. It's time to see Mahomes punctuate his season against a top-shelf defense such as Tampa's. Plus, Brady ruthlessly trolled Josh Allen during summer golf outings, and as a fellow young superstar QB, Mahomes should pay Brady back for that (the Bills don't play the Bucs this year).

Graziano: Of those four, I say Brady is the one most in need of a win. Coming off a tough loss at home to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, still shorthanded in the receiver corps, Brady and the Bucs are at risk of sinking into an injury-related malaise that could cost them in the standings. Beating the Chiefs, even though they're an out-of-conference opponent, would be just what they need to feel like they can keep the ship afloat until everyone comes back.

Do you give the Cowboys a real chance to threaten the Eagles in the NFC East?

Graziano: No, because I believe completely in the obviously nefarious curse that has prevented any team from repeating as NFC East champ since the Eagles in 2003 and 2004. But you're not here for my analysis of the supernatural, you want the football stuff. I think the Eagles have the better roster overall, and if Hurts is going to play the way he has so far, the advantage everyone believed the Cowboys had at the QB position is obviously less significant. The Cowboys did crush the Eagles twice head-to-head last year, so I'm eager to see them play each other to figure out how much (if at all) the gap has closed. But the Eagles look like the better team overall, and they have the distinct karmic advantage of not being the defending champ in a division in which no one can repeat.

Fowler: Heck yes. Fans and media hyperventilated about the Cowboys' lack of depth on offense, but here they sit at 2-1 without Michael Gallup, Dak Prescott, Dalton Schultz and Tyron Smith. The first three should be back in the next two weeks. Not everyone wants to admit it, but Dallas drafts and develops well. The Cowboys have four double-digit-win seasons since 2014. They will be right there. And Prescott is still the division's best quarterback. Sure, the Eagles' overall roster is slightly better right now, and Jalen Hurts has played lights out -- he's improving by the game. So Philly is my favorite, but Dallas is poised to close the gap.

What's your top upset pick for Week 4?

Fowler: Seahawks (+4.5) over Lions. I love how Detroit is improving but still don't trust the Lions to finish games just yet. Seattle's run defense has been shaky, so expect Pete Carroll's staff to address that issue with changes this week. D'Andre Swift's absence hurts Detroit's big-play potential out of the backfield. With Detroit averaging nearly 32 points per game, the Seahawks must be prepared to win a shootout if necessary. I think they are up for it.

Graziano: Jaguars (+6.5) over Eagles. Look, I don't understand in what universe the 49ers should be favored over the Rams on Monday Night Football, but assuming that obvious error corrects itself by the time that game kicks off, I'm going to roll with Trevor Lawrence in the Doug Pederson revenge game in Philly. I like everything about what the Eagles are doing and the way Jalen Hurts is playing, but they're obviously not going undefeated, and the Jaguars come in hot. Lawrence is playing well, the Jags have a defensive front that could give Hurts and the Philly offense some trouble, and I say they keep it rolling Sunday.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Start Khalil Herbert, if you weren't already. David Montgomery's ankle issue jeopardizes his Week 4 status, and Herbert looked at ease in last week's lead role with 157 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. The Bears are running the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive downs. A massive workload is all but promised against the Giants.

Graziano: Keep the faith on Broncos RB Javonte Williams. The Raiders are allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. Vegas should be able to move the ball and score against the Denver defense to an extent the feeble San Francisco Garoppolos could not in Week 3, so the Broncos might need to run and throw to keep up. As good as Melvin Gordon III still looks, Williams is clearly the better player, and they've used him more in the passing game. I'd fire up either or both Broncos backs this week, but if you're worried about the time share and it's shaking your faith in Williams, I say give it at least this week before you consider moving off him.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• Odds seem good that Patriots QB Mac Jones will have to miss some time because of his high ankle sprain, but as of Tuesday morning, the Patriots were still holding out at least some hope he wouldn't miss much time, even suggesting they haven't yet ruled him out for this week. Jones was scheduled to undergo more testing Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, and in the meantime the coaching staff is preparing two plans for Sunday's game against the Packers -- one that has Jones at quarterback and another that has Brian Hoyer as the starter. Depending on the news that comes back on Jones in the next 24 hours, it's possible they won't be without him for long.

• One of the under-the-radar stars of the early part of the season has been Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who struggled as a rookie and dealt with a significant injury issue in his second season. Under the guidance of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant, Okudah has taken a big step forward this year. In Week 1, he held Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith without a catch on four targets. Smith has 15 catches for 249 yards in the two games since. In Week 2, Okudah was on Washington's Terry McLaurin, who had four catches for 75 yards on eight targets. And in Week 3, Okudah drew Minnesota superstar Justin Jefferson, who finished the game with three catches for 14 yards on seven targets. It's early, but Okudah has so far played up to his draft position and could be a sneaky extension candidate next offseason if he keeps it up.

• The NFL and the Buccaneers continue to monitor Hurricane Ian with an eye toward its potential impact on Sunday night's Chiefs-Bucs game in Tampa. The league is maintaining contact with both teams and with local officials to stay updated on the conditions. The Bucs have already relocated to Miami for the practice week -- an arrangement made easier by the fact that the Dolphins have a Thursday night game in Cincinnati and therefore aren't practicing Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. And Bucs players and staff were told they could bring their families with them to get them out of harm's way. As for the game, unfortunately, the NFL has a lot of recent experience with issues like this, and depending on what happens with the storm, it is possible they'd have to move the game out of Tampa. A league official said they can make a decision as late as Friday, but they don't want to speculate at this point on where the game might take place if not Tampa. Both the Dolphins and Jaguars are on the road this week, but those don't seem like the most likely options, because the State of Florida could need all available resources to deal with the storm impact, even if that impact isn't felt in Jacksonville or Miami.

Fowler

• Jaylen Waddle has taken a massive Year 2 leap for the Dolphins, pushing for the league lead in receiving yards at 342, two behind Stefon Diggs. But Waddle says receiving crowns are not on his radar. "I'm about wins -- Ws," Waddle told me in an interview previewing the Bengals-Dolphins Thursday night matchup. Tyreek Hill's speed has elevated the Miami offense, but if the Dolphins' 3-0 start has shown anything, it's that Waddle's first step doesn't take a back seat to anyone. Waddle says he and Hill "go back and forth on the GPS" in practice on who's the fastest. "We all complement each other really well -- with me and Tyreek getting open and the running game," Waddle said. "Not being one-dimensional helps us make plays all over the field."

• Saints quarterback Jameis Winston is determined to play through the four fractures in his back, despite the discomfort. From what I'm told, completing basic tasks such as getting in and out of a car has been painful for Winston. Sitting a week was at least discussed. After all, other quarterbacks who have experienced similar injuries -- from Derek Carr to Cam Newton and Tony Romo -- missed game time. But Winston wanted to push through it to be there for his team. He wears protective padding, but his play has suffered since the injury, with a passer rating from 111 in Week 1 to 55.8 and 76.6 in Weeks 2 and 3. Winston's hope is to continue to heal up this week in London and help the Saints' offense start faster. New Orleans has three total points in the first three quarters of the past two games.

• The Steelers' offense is searching a bit after mustering 272.7 yards per game through three weeks, next to last in the NFL, and Mitch Trubisky appears frustrated, as do the receivers. But perhaps Pittsburgh found a spark late in last week's Browns loss, via the no-huddle offense. After three consecutive three-and-outs, the Steelers turned to the no huddle for a 63-yard drive that ended in a field goal. The quarterback typically has more influence on the playcalling in that setting, and I'm told that was the case with Trubisky late in the game. It could be something Pittsburgh tries once again if it needs a boost.

• The NFLPA and NFL management council don't have a firm timeline on wrapping up the investigation into Tua Tagovailoa's return to Sunday's game against Buffalo despite appearing woozy. I'm told the investigation will include interviews with parties involved and review of available video from all angles. The goal is to determine whether Tagovailoa's struggle to gather himself after taking a hit was neurologically based. The Dolphins maintain Tagovailoa's hindrance was solely based on a back injury, and the NFL-NFLPA will hope they are right.