All right, Week 3, you had a few tricks up your sleeve, didn't you?
You took down the Bills, which it looked as if no one was going to be able to do, and now we have to wonder whether they'll actually be playing from behind in their division this year.
You took down the Chiefs, who looked like world-beaters back in Week 1 but might actually have some legitimate concerns on that post-Tyreek Hill offense after all.
You gave us a matchup between two of the best quarterbacks of all time, a game that finished 14-12 and was decided on a pass breakup on a 2-point conversion. The Packers are winning with defense and special teams while the offense tries to come together around Aaron Rodgers. Just like they said they would.
Week 3 made the Bears 2-1 somehow, and it left the Raiders 0-3. It gave us significant reason to worry about the Saints, who were a preseason darling in some circles, and to wonder whether this really could be Mike Tomlin's first losing season as head coach of the Steelers. It left us to gawk in awe, once again, at Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts and even for a little bit ... Jacoby Brissett?
Yeah, Week 3 was good to the overreactions, that's for sure. And the Cowboys haven't even played yet!
Here's a sampling of what we saw and how we feel about it as Week 3 comes to a close.
The Miami Dolphins are now the favorites to win the AFC East
To fully appreciate what the Dolphins did Sunday, you have to remember the Bills, through two weeks, looked like the dominant, unbeatable team in the league. On offense and defense, they pummeled their first two opponents, which happened to be the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and a Titans team that earned the top seed in last year's AFC playoff field. To even play the Bills close would have been the kind of thing that announced the Dolphins as a true AFC contender. But they did one better. They won the game 21-19.
It wasn't easy. Buffalo smothered the Dolphins on Miami's own goal line -- to the point where Miami punter Thomas Morstead kicked the ball off his own teammate's rear end and out of the back of the end zone for a safety -- and the game ended when the Bills couldn't get the snap off in time after Josh Allen moved them into field goal range in the final seconds. But the standings don't ask how, they just ask who won. And the Dolphins, not the Bills, are alone in first place in the division and the only undefeated team in the AFC through three weeks.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
But don't get mad, Dolphins fans. I'm not downgrading this victory or your 3-0 start. It's one of the cooler stories of the young season so far, and coach Mike McDaniel appears to be in complete control of his offense on a level that should make some first-year coaches envious. It's just too soon to declare the Dolphins the favorites. What Buffalo did the first two weeks shouldn't be discounted just because one game didn't go its way, and if you had the Bills as your AFC favorites before Sunday, your faith should not be shaken just yet. Buffalo was about as shredded, injury-wise, as a team can be at this point in the season, and the Bills still came a couple of seconds from having a shot at a game-winning field goal.
Miami deserves to be in the conversation, and it would no longer qualify as a major surprise if the Dolphins kept this going. But the Bills will get healthier, these teams will meet again in Buffalo on Dec. 18, and things could look a lot different in a couple of months. What we know through three weeks is that the Dolphins are a true AFC contender with a scary, quick-strike offense that's not going to be any fun for anyone to play. If you can beat the Bills, you can beat anyone in the league.
Jalen Hurts is the MVP front-runner
The first team to get to 3-0 in the other conference was the Philadelphia Eagles, who dominated division-rival Washington with a 24-point second quarter that was more than the Eagles needed. It was 24-0 at the half thanks to six sacks of old friend Carson Wentz by the Philadelphia defense and a ludicrous 156 receiving yards from DeVonta Smith. Hurts finished the game 22-for-35 for 340 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He didn't even need to use his legs in this one, rushing nine times for 20 yards. No, this Hurts looks like everything the Eagles hoped he would become this year and more, picking teams apart with his arm in all areas of the field. Through three weeks, he has four passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns and a 67.3 completion percentage on a team that has played better than any other in the NFC. That's MVP conversation stuff, for sure.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
As with Miami above, it's just too soon. If the season ended right now, would Hurts have a chance to walk away with the MVP award? Of course he would. But so would Lamar Jackson, who has won the award before and has been at least as dazzling a two-way player as Hurts so far this year. The struggles of Baltimore's defense so far might even help Jackson's case.
Sunday's loss aside, Josh Allen has been a rock-solid MVP candidate since this season started and would surely get some votes. Patrick Mahomes is always a threat to win this thing. If Aaron Rodgers wins 13 games again with this collection of receivers, he'll get a look for his third MVP in a row. Lots of candidates, which is why it's too early to call Hurts (or anyone!) a clear front-runner. But Hurts is building a case, and the Eagles have one of the easiest remaining schedules of any team in the league. If they cruise to a division title with Hurts playing like this, he'll be in the mix for sure.
The Raiders' season is over at 0-3
Somebody was going to be 0-3 after Sunday's Raiders-Titans game, and only one team since 2000 has made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Yes, there are 17 games now instead of 16, and there is one more playoff spot in each conference than there used to be. But 0-3 is still a heck of a tough place to be when you play in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
The Raiders have been in every game they've played. They lost by five to the Chargers in Week 1, lost in overtime to the Cardinals in Week 2 after blowing a huge lead, and were a late 2-point conversion away from tying up the Titans on Sunday. But the offense hasn't clicked for a whole game yet, the defense isn't stopping anybody when it matters and Josh McDaniels' first year as Raiders coach is in danger of ending almost as soon as it began.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Full respect for what this crew did last year to make the playoffs when everything was falling apart, but this year's AFC is just going to be too tough to allow a 10-7 wild-card team. Miami has joined the contender party. Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore have all (with small exceptions) looked like the contenders we expected them to be. Cincinnati likely will be heard from yet. The Chargers have one of the league's best rosters. Jacksonville looks spunky. The Browns, for goodness' sake, are 2-1 under Jacoby Brissett and would be 3-0 without a miracle comeback by the Jets in Week 2. The field is loaded. The Raiders haven't played the Chiefs or the Broncos. They also have some tough out-of-division road games, including one against the Rams in L.A. I don't think anybody in the AFC West could really afford a slow start, and the Raiders are the ones who have started the slowest. Things aren't looking good in Vegas.
Doug Pederson is going to win Coach of the Year
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1 and alone in first place in the AFC South after a 38-10 waxing of the aforementioned Chargers on Sunday. This on the heels of a dominating 24-0 victory over the division-rival Colts in Week 2. Some team goes from worst to first pretty much every year, and the Jaguars look like a strong candidate to do just that. No team in the league underwent a bigger upgrade at the head coach position than the Jaguars, who suffered through the Urban Meyer experiment in 2021 only to land Super Bowl champion Pederson in the January 2022 coaching cycle. Trevor Lawrence is playing up to his No. 1 overall pick pedigree, the team loaded up at receiver and offensive line in free agency, and the Jaguars are one of the fun early stories of the 2022 season.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Miami's Mike McDaniel surely plans to have something to say about this before it's all said and done. At this point you'd have to at least nod in Eagles coach Nick Sirianni's direction a little bit. If Kevin O'Connell steals the NFC North from the Packers in his first season with the Vikings, he'll be a candidate. And if the Browns' Kevin Stefanski makes the playoffs with Jacoby Brissett starting 11 games, you're going to have to think about him, too. But a worst-to-first rebound is always going to get the attention of the Coach of the Year voting bloc, and Pederson looks to have changed just about everything in a very short period of time in Jacksonville. I mean, it's not a huge surprise that a Pederson-coached team with a No. 1 overall pick at QB can score points, but holding the high-powered Chargers offense to 10 points? That says a lot about the team as a whole. It's early yet, but you obviously can't rule this one out.
Aaron Rodgers has a better chance to reach the Super Bowl than Tom Brady does
To be fair, both of these great veterans looked sharp in the first half of their Sunday matchup in steamy, sweaty Tampa. Rodgers built a 14-3 halftime lead that could have been even bigger if Aaron Jones had scored instead of fumbling at the goal line. Then, much the same way it did last week against the Bears, the Green Bay offense stalled out in the second half against Tampa's stout defense. But the Packers' defense was up to the task and kept the Bucs out of the end zone until the very last seconds, when Brady marched down the field and threw a touchdown pass to cut the lead to two points. The Pack had to break up a 2-point conversion pass and recover an onside kick to preserve the victory, leading coach Matt LaFleur to proclaim, "This game was won on defense and special teams," and do so proudly.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Both of these teams, I truly believe, will look better in November and December than they do right now. The Bucs will get much healthier -- they have only one way to go in that department. Rodgers will grow more comfortable with his new receiving corps. The fact that they're both 2-1 so far is a testament to the quality of the quarterbacks and the quality of their defenses. But give me Rodgers and the Packers as a stronger favorite right now, since they still do have multiple ways to beat you with their run game and their defense. Plus, those special teams, which were such a thorn in their side last year (not to mention responsible for their playoff loss) look to be shored up significantly under special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia. Finally, because the Packers won this game down here in the 90-degree September swelter, they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Bucs. Which means, if they have to play again in January, there's a decent chance it'll be in Green Bay.