When I used to grade every NFL free-agent signing, my average grade tended to be somewhere between a C-plus and a C. Why were my grades so low? Well, the reality is that most of the prominent signings or veteran trades you see during the first 72 hours of the window typically don't work out.
For every Trent Williams, there's typically a Kenny Golladay and a Bud Dupree. The Bills would make their Stefon Diggs trade 10 times out of 10 again, but they nearly ended up making a move first for Antonio Brown, who didn't work out quite as well for the Raiders. Guys struggle in a new location. They get injured. They age out of the players they used to be. This stuff is hard.
Today, though, we're going to focus on the positive. I've selected nine players acquired in the 2021 offseason who have turned out to be relative bargains for their respective new teams. I've also tried to identify a player expected to hit free agency or the trade market in 2022 who might represent a similar sort of appealing bargain for a different organization this upcoming offseason. I'll start in Wisconsin, where the 1-seed in the NFC has been able to get through a rash of injuries with a series of surprisingly valuable additions (these are in no order):
De'Vondre Campbell, LB, Packers
Campbell's path from frustrating Falcons linebacker to Pro Bowl snub has been stunning. I wrote about his emergence when I covered my All-Underrated Team earlier this season. He has always been a good athlete and rangy against the run, but his improvements in coverage this season have been dramatic.
The Packers signed Campbell to a one-year deal for $2 million, just a single season removed from him signing a one-year, $6 million contract with the Cardinals. Both teams used voidable years to bring the size of his cap hit down, which has led to a universe in which the 28-year-old is taking up nearly four times as much on Arizona's cap in 2021 ($4 million) as he does on Green Bay's ($1,192,000). After settling for two consecutive one-year deals, Campbell should have no trouble finding a significant multiyear deal this offseason.
2022 example: Jarrad Davis, LB, Jets
Davis was a highly regarded player coming out of Florida in 2017, but after Matt Patricia took over in Detroit, the Lions didn't get much out of their first-round pick. Davis signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Jets last offseason, but he missed the first half of the season because of an ankle injury and has allowed a passer rating of 127.8 in coverage this season. He won't get that much money this offseason, which would make him an interesting buy-low option for teams at linebacker.
Rasul Douglas, CB, Packers
Douglas' emergence as a playmaker for the Packers might even be more surprising than Campbell's. A 2017 third-round pick by the Eagles, Douglas didn't play at all as a rookie and never seemed to consistently gain the trust of his coaches. After allowing a 114.2 passer rating across six starts in 2019, Philadelphia cut him and let him go to Carolina, where he started 11 uninspiring games for a team that was desperate for cornerback help.
The league was not impressed. Douglas was cut by the Raiders and Texans this offseason before joining the Cardinals' practice squad. The Packers snapped him up in October and he almost immediately became an impact player. He has allowed a 44.8 passer rating in coverage and intercepted five passes, taking two of them to the house for touchdowns. He has helped the Packers get by without the injured Jaire Alexander, and while he wouldn't stand in the star corner's way when Alexander returns, he has helped push the oft-frustrating Kevin King out of a starting role. It's pretty incredible for a veteran making just under $1 million this season.
2022 example: Sidney Jones, CB, Seahawks
Jones was selected one round before Douglas by the Eagles in the 2017 draft. He played only 29 snaps as a rookie as he recovered from a torn Achilles, and while there were high hopes that he would emerge as an impact corner, he never delivered on that promise. He was waived in 2020 and spent a year toiling for the Jaguars.
Back in the Pacific Northwest, a desperate Seahawks team turned to Jones this fall. He struggled in his first pass at the job, but after getting a second chance over the past six weeks, Jones has been much better. He's allowing an 87.3 passer rating in coverage this season, so there's some evidence that he might be better than his reputation.
Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals
This one is only tangentially related to the Packers! (I could also mention Dennis Kelly and Corey Bojorquez here, too.) A few years ago, I didn't love Za'Darius Smith's deal with Green Bay, which paid an edge rusher with one year of production like he was a superstar edge rusher. Smith has missed virtually all of 2021 because of a back injury, but as he racked up 26 sacks between 2019 and 2020, the Packers would happily do that deal again. I was wrong about Smith.
Fast-forward to 2021 and I was similarly underwhelmed by the Bengals guaranteeing $20 million to Hendrickson after one impressive season with the Saints. I might need to start being more optimistic about impressive pass-rushers in small samples, because Hendrickson has been great for the Bengals. He has 14 sacks, 27 knockdowns and 12 tackles for loss this season, serving as the primary pass-rusher for one of the league's most improved defenses. He was a second-team All-Pro when I compiled my roster last week.
2022 example: Harold Landry, Edge, Titans
Landry was more productive across his first three seasons than Smith or Hendrickson, but he has broken out in 2021, racking up 12 sacks and 22 knockdowns for the Titans. Tennessee signed Bud Dupree last offseason to serve as the primary pass-rusher, so there's a chance it lets Landry leave in free agency. Some team is going to pay him like he's going to be the guy from 2021 throughout his new deal, and while I would have been skeptical of that possibility in the past, I'm going to be more open-minded this time around.
Charles Harris, Edge, Lions
Harris, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2017 draft, failed to impress during his first three seasons in Miami. The Dolphins declined his fifth-year option and dumped him to the Falcons in 2020. Harris signed a one-year, $1.8 million deal with the Lions last offseason, and given a chance to play regularly, he has been one of their best players.
He has 7.5 sacks, 15 knockdowns and 10 tackles for a team that has faced the third-fewest pass attempts in the league. He often pops up in Detroit's best moments, like when he had a sack and a half and made three tackles on one drive in December's upset win over the Cardinals. He might not be a superstar, but Harris has gone from looking like a bust to playing like a valuable part of an NFL team.
2022 example: Takkarist McKinley, Edge, Browns
Unfortunately, this one might have to be a 2023 example, as McKinley ruptured an Achilles in December and might not be ready to start the 2022 season. I liked the comparison up to that point, as McKinley was the No. 26 pick in the same draft who flashed early in his career but never launched in a larger role. McKinley was having a competent season as a backup pass-rusher for the Browns before going down; I wonder if he'll catch on with the 2022 version of the Lions (who might be the Lions themselves) this offseason.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots
Another member of the All-Underrated Team, Bourne represents the best value from New England's offseason spending spree at receiver. I don't doubt that quarterback Mac Jones has been helped by all the veterans -- and tight end Hunter Henry has nine touchdowns -- but Henry, Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor have a combined average annual value of $36 million on their deals and have 1,261 total yards this season. Bourne's three-year, $15-million deal, on the other hand, has been a bargain.
The former 49ers wideout has been the poor man's Deebo Samuel, racking up 776 receiving yards while adding a quietly impressive 117 rushing yards on 11 carries. He doesn't have Samuel's ability to make an impact as a traditional running back, but when you're averaging 11.8 yards per target, you're doing something right. His mark there leads the league, just ahead of the guy with 11.6 yards per target in second place ... Samuel. In a league in which signing a successful free-agent wide receiver is virtually impossible, Bourne has been the exception to the rule.
2022 example: Cedrick Wilson, WR, Cowboys
Like Bourne, Wilson has been a useful player on a team that has plenty of exciting options ahead of him at wide receiver. Given opportunities by injuries to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, he has been productive with the Cowboys, averaging 8.8 yards per target this season. He's also a valuable trick-play quarterback, as he threw one of the best passes you'll see from a non-quarterback in this casually flipped 35-yard pass to CeeDee Lamb against the Vikings earlier this season. You know Bill Belichick appreciates that.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Falcons
If we're going to talk about lesser versions of Samuel, I have to bring up Patterson, who carried the Falcons' offense for most of the first half of the season. Signing a one-year, $3 million deal, it would have been fair to expect him to resume his role as one of the league's best kick returners while serving as an occasional option on offense. We had seen him flash as a receiver earlier in his career, and the Patriots and Bears had both given him reps as a running back, but he had never been the focal point of any offensive attack.
Well, on 200 touches from scrimmage this season, Patterson has scored 11 touchdowns. He has scored touchdowns on fades and run them in as an I-formation tailback. Ironically, it has actually been one of his worst seasons as a kick returner, but I'm sure the Falcons don't mind. Arthur Smith's team won't make the playoffs, but Patterson has been one of the biggest reasons Atlanta has made it to seven wins.
2022 example: Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Falcons
The closest comparison might be the Jaguars' Tavon Austin, another former first-round pick who was a great (punt) returner early in his career and who also has spent time in multiple roles on offense. If you aren't as concerned about physical skills or the ability to play running back, you could look toward the Jets' Braxton Berrios, who just completed his most impressive game as a pro.
With all due respect to those guys, there's not really anybody else like Patterson in football. With his performance being touchdown-heavy and mostly coming in the first half of the season, I'm not sure everyone will believe that he can be an impact player on offense again in 2022. The Falcons have every reason to bring him back, but he might end up needing to prove himself again next season.
Carson Wentz, QB, Colts
The price wasn't exactly cheap, as the Colts will end up sending first- and third-round picks to the Eagles for the privilege of acquiring their quarterback, but Wentz has returned to his 2018-19 form since joining Indianapolis. I'm not sure we'll ever see the 2017 Wentz again, and the 2016 No. 2 overall pick has been lucky in terms of dropped interceptions, but he ranks eighth in Total QBR, 12th in passer rating and 12th in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Wentz has also been healthy for the entire season after undergoing foot surgery during the summer. Getting a top-12 quarterback in his late 20s for a first- and third-round pick is a great deal for the Colts, who had no path to a solution under center after losing Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers to retirement. With the Eagles eating more than $45 million in bonuses before dealing Wentz, the Colts have him under contract for just over $25 million per season through 2024, which is reasonable in a league in which the going rate for veteran quarterbacks is north of $40 million per year.
2022 example: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns
Mayfield won't be signing an extension this offseason, which makes the calculus different, but I wonder if there's some upside in going after Mayfield in the hopes of buying low on a young starter. Public sentiment on him has fluctuated more wildly from year to year than it has in league circles, and I don't think many teams perceive that he has the same sort of upside Wentz has, but the 2018 No. 1 overall pick is coming off a season marred by a serious shoulder injury.
Like Wentz, we know that Mayfield is more dependent on his offensive line playing well than other quarterbacks. When his line has played at a high level -- notably in the second half of 2018 and during 2020 -- he has been a viable starting quarterback. I suspect that the Browns will let him play out his $18.9 million guarantee in 2022 and make their final decision at quarterback after that season, but if general manager Andrew Berry & Co. do decide to take a swing on one of the superstar passers this offseason, Mayfield might represent a useful option for the right team.
Morgan Moses, OT, Jets
When the Bears franchised Allen Robinson last winter, they probably weren't expecting their star wide receiver to be thrilled with his $17.9 million tag. Once it became clear that the top of the wideout market was generally settling for one-year deals, though, he signed his tag. The Bears were forced to make several moves to clear out cap space, first cutting cornerback Kyle Fuller before designating OT Charles Leno as a post-June 1 release. Washington signed Leno and then cut its own tackle in Moses, who caught on with the Jets on a one-year, $3.6 million pact.
Leno has been an excellent addition for Washington -- and he just got a contract extension -- and Moses has done just fine for himself with the Jets. Expected to be the swing tackle behind Mekhi Becton and George Fant, the Week 1 injury to Becton led the Jets to move Fant to his old spot at left tackle and promote Moses into a starting role. Moses has held his own, as he has allowed only 2.5 sacks without committing a holding penalty across 15 starts. In a league in which teams are always desperate to get their shopping done immediately, the success of Leno and Moses on the cheap are a reminder that you can find useful players hitting free agency in May and June, too.
2022 example: Billy Turner, OL, Packers
If we're looking for a veteran lineman who might become a cap casualty, an option who came to mind was Turner, who has a cap hit of just under $9 million for a Packers team projected to be $37.5 million over the expected 2022 mark. I would expect that number to change as they either re-sign or trade Aaron Rodgers -- and the 30-year-old Turner has been a useful lineman during his time in Green Bay -- but they could move forward with Dennis Kelly or Yosh Nijman on the right side on a much smaller salary.
Bryan Anger, P, Cowboys
Let me finish by throwing a punter on the list. Anger was cut by the Texans halfway through a multiyear extension and then signed a one-year deal for $1.2 million with the Cowboys. Dallas actually cut him briefly in September in a bit of guarantee manipulation before immediately bringing him back. He has been brilliant for the Cowboys, who have fielded the league's best punt unit this season. And to be fair, while it's easy to criticize the Texans for letting go of a player who turned out to be valuable, Houston is just behind Dallas in second place for punt value this season.
2022 example: Brett Kern, P, Titans
Anger's numbers were right around league average in 2020 by the measures at Puntalytics, and while the Texans created cap room by releasing him, we saw the 33-year-old excel elsewhere. Kern has been about league average this season, and the Titans could free up $3.2 million in cash and cap space by releasing their longtime punter. As one of the league's best punters in 2019 and 2020, though, I still think he has plenty left in the tank.