NFL Week 18 buzz: Head-coaching carousel rumors, upset predictions and matchups to watch

Welcome to Week 18, the final week of the 2021 NFL regular season. There are several key matchups Saturday and Sunday, and we asked insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the hottest topics of the week and for their picks on the games with playoff implications.

They first discuss the coaching carousel and which jobs are most likely to come open. We know Jacksonville and Las Vegas already are open, but could Rich Bisaccia remain the Raiders' coach given what they've accomplished down the stretch?

Graziano and Fowler then address the winner-is-in game between the AFC West rival Raiders and Chargers before picking games that have nothing on the line but still hold intrigue for them. There are also a few newsy nuggets and notes at the bottom. Here we go:

Jump to:
Coaching carousel | Upset picks
Raiders-Chargers | Games to watch
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

What's the latest you've heard on potential head-coach openings?

Graziano: If I were making odds, I'd say we have five openings next week. Raiders and Jaguars are already open (though if Rich Bisaccia gets the Raiders into the playoffs, are we 100% sure he can't keep the job?). My crystal ball projection says there are likely to be openings in Chicago, Denver and Minnesota. If I had to bet on the situations with the Panthers and Giants, I'd say their coaches remain in place for 2022. I'm not 100% certain on either one, though, and I don't think it would qualify as a major surprise if either or both of those organizations decided to make a change. How's that line up with what you're hearing/thinking, Jeremy?

Fowler: That's about right on those five, Dan. I'm in the same spot. The feeling from early in the season was that Joe Judge would get a third season in New York, and barring an unexpected plot twist, that should remain the case. That roster is quite bad, so it's not all on him. In Carolina, Matt Rhule appears safe based on my conversations with people around the league, but team owner David Tepper hasn't exactly tipped his hand, either, so this one to me is more of a wild card. Some folks in the league believe Rhule wouldn't mind going back to college. The transition hasn't been easy. But Rhule, like Judge, has lacked enough healthy playmakers to put together a respectable offense. And Rhule's third seasons at Temple and Baylor marked breakthroughs, so might as well see if he can follow his own formula in the NFL. In Las Vegas, Bisaccia is, at the very least, in the mix there.

Curious where you are on Denver because of the layers that deepen the intrigue: I'm told Vic Fangio's future is solely general manager George Paton's call, and Paton has had a positive experience working with Fangio. But is that enough to overcome three losing seasons?

Graziano: That's the thing in Denver. I don't think it's that Paton doesn't like Fangio. My sense is that maybe there's a coach, or a list of coaching candidates, he had in mind when he took the job a year ago and he decided to give Fangio one year to show what he could do. If that's the case, maybe the new GM wants to get on with his own vision for the future of the franchise. Paton is probably the only one who knows for sure what's going to happen next week. I just wouldn't be surprised to see that one open, is all.

Fowler: There's usually one wild card. I once thought Houston would be one, but people there are giving off the vibe that David Culley is in good shape. I still have a hard time believing Seattle would part with Pete Carroll after one bad year in nearly a decade. Though Carroll probably needs to make some changes operationally.

Graziano: The people I talk to in Seattle definitely aren't expecting seismic change there, so we will see. My understanding is Carroll is under contract for several more seasons, and I think when his time there is done, he'll have a lot of say in that. The big question there is what happens at quarterback, whether Russell Wilson wants to leave and whether that would signal enough of a change to prompt Carroll to rethink how big a rebuild he wants to undertake. But so far, everyone has made good on their word to keep offseason issues to the side and keep their focus on the season. Which isn't a big surprise, given the track records there.

What's your top upset pick for Week 18?

Fowler: 49ers (+4) over Rams. This spread is surprising, considering San Francisco's dominance over a five-game stretch vs. Los Angeles. The 49ers have outscored the Rams 132-84 during that winning streak. There's something about this matchup that brings out the best in Kyle Shanahan's crew, which needs a win to strengthen playoff positioning.

Graziano: I like yours a lot, but give me the other NFC West matchup: Seahawks (+6.5) over Cardinals. Arizona looked great taking apart the Cowboys on Sunday, but I'm loathe to believe all of their problems are solved, and Seattle does seem to have found a formula on offense here late in the season with Rashaad Penny running the way he is. I'm banking on Russell Wilson to finish strong in what could -- could -- be his final game as a Seahawk.

Fowler: The Seahawks won't go out with a whimper, especially as Wilson recognizes the symbolism that this could be it. And Arizona could be susceptible after an emotional win over Dallas. But the Cardinals are eager to disprove the perception they are soft when things get tough late in the season, so I'm expecting an inspired performance.

Where are you at with Ravens-Steelers? Two teams with slim playoff hopes and quarterbacks in different spots -- Ben Roethlisberger enjoying the ride, Lamar Jackson trying to get back inside of it.

Graziano: Gonna take the Steelers here. The Ravens are out of dudes, and Pittsburgh still has something to play for in addition to sending Roethlisberger off with a win. T.J. Watt looks like he'll set the single-season sack record. Could be a big day for Pittsburgh in Baltimore, even though the Ravens always do seem to be right in it at the end of their games.

Which team are you taking in the Chargers-Raiders winner-gets-in matchup?

Graziano: Raiders. I'm in, man. I thought this was a dead team a month ago when I watched it get annihilated in Kansas City, but it has won three tough games in a row since then, and going into Indy and beating that red-hot bunch was a real eye-opener. The Raiders are tough, they have strong leadership, they're playing hard for an interim coach they really like, they're at home -- I'm just a believer.

The Chargers look like the better team on paper, but they've laid more than their share of eggs this season, and I don't know, I just think the Raiders have something going on that could be just enough to lug them into the postseason.

Fowler: Chargers. Los Angeles had a strenuous two weeks, with a thrilling overtime loss to Kansas City with the division at stake, losing nine starters to COVID-19/injuries and an ugly loss at Houston. But the Chargers got past all that and looked like themselves in a commanding win over Denver. If both rosters are relatively intact, the Chargers have more firepower. They believe they possess the game's best quarterback, Justin Herbert, whose instincts and skill should command big games. They can win with the run, with the short passing game or with the vertical passing game.

But, then again, so can Las Vegas. It's hard to discount what QB Derek Carr and the Raiders are doing. Feels like their moment, no?

Graziano: Yeah, that's kind of my point. I'm sure I'm supposed to be doing some kind of deeper analysis on the matchup, and I think such analysis might point to a Chargers victory. I really do think there's a lot to the way a team feels about itself this time of year. And the Raiders have this us-against-the-world thing going at the tail end of a season in which everything imaginable (and some unimaginable) has gone wrong and they're somehow still standing. Don't give Carr the ball back with a chance to get Daniel Carlson in field-goal range to win it at the end is all I'm saying.

Fowler: Carr quietly keeps strengthening his place in the quarterback pantheon. Over the summer, several well-respected personnel evaluators classified Carr as a top-10 quarterback, and he's at least making his case. He's not perfect, but he has made some impressive throws in big moments all year. Carr vs. Herbert is a better matchup than advertised.

What's the other Week 18 game you're most interested in?

Fowler: Bengals at Browns. Cleveland is eliminated from the playoffs, Baker Mayfield is done for the year and the once-high-powered Browns offense looks battered and confused. A response is overdue. With Mayfield due for shoulder surgery a week earlier than expected, turning to Case Keenum should refocus the running game, which pumped 153 yards on Cincinnati in a 41-16 early-November win. Sweeping the division's hottest team with the hottest quarterback is an ideal way to stop a three-game slide.

Graziano: Colts at Jaguars. I know, this is a weird one. The Colts are favored by 15.5 points, and the Jaguars have nothing. There is not one single good reason to expect this game to be competitive, and the Colts should get the win they need to get them into the postseason without breaking a sweat. But there's this one troubling little item: The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014. They play there literally every year. They've lost the past six times they've done so. I would venture to say with some degree of certainty that they've been the better team in at least five of those years. Weird things happen in the final week of the year, there could be something in the water down there in Jacksonville, and the Colts are coming off a surprise loss to the Raiders at home. I'm just saying I have my eye on this one until it looks like the Colts have it put away.

Fowler: That's a wild stat, and a bit shocking considering Indy's ascension aligning with Jacksonville's decline. But this Jaguars team doesn't appear ready to tap into any sort of mental edge. Players look checked out. I'm hoping for purposes of playoff theatrics that I'm wrong.

Speaking of lack of inspiration, Bears at Vikings features coaches limping to the presumed finish lines of their tenures. Which teams will actually play inspired football? Matt Nagy's locker room has continued to play hard for him, resulting in back-to-back wins. Let's see if Minnesota does the same for Mike Zimmer, who seems fed up with his unvaccinated quarterback room.

Graziano: I almost went with Bears-Vikings. Minnesota has the feel of a team that is cooked, and you have Bears players playing for jobs. And anyone who knows their history has to have at least one eye on a Patriots finale in Miami. Some wild late-season stuff has happened to Belichick down there. We didn't mention Miami in the first section up there, but I'm very intrigued to see what kinds of changes happen with that roster and/or organization if they end the season on a two-game losing streak after failing to cash in on that hot streak they had.

Fowler empties his notebook: What he's hearing this week

• The consensus among a few NFL personnel evaluators I talked to is that WR Antonio Brown will not get another NFL job in the short term. His immense talent might seduce a team eventually, but as one exec pointed out, he had a limited market before signing with Tampa Bay twice -- once during the 2020 season, then again in free agency -- and that's largely because of the off-field issues. Despite his body holding up well at age 33, he's not the same player. ... The feeling out of Tampa Bay is the Bucs won't aggressively tap into the free agency pool to replace Brown, relying on several role players (including Cyril Grayson, who has improved rapidly of late) to play opposite Mike Evans. The Bucs have Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller and a talented group of tight ends.

• As Trey Lance remains the likely starter for Week 18 -- barring a swift recovery of Jimmy Garoppolo's sprained thumb -- San Francisco's goal for the rookie is the same as last week: improved mastery of team passing concepts and accuracy. The 49ers acclimated Lance in waves, tweaking throwing mechanics in the offseason, implementing offensive packages in camp, and refining nuances of the position throughout. They've wanted all three phases to come together in Weeks 17-18, and Lance largely delivered Sunday against Houston, completing 16 of 23 passes for 249 yards, two touchdown and one interception along with 31 rushing yards. I'm told Lance's improvements in footwork and command/activity due to increased confidence has shown up over the past month behind the scenes. The 49ers need that to pay off in a big way Sunday vs. the Rams.

• With the good vibes coming out of Green Bay -- communication between Aaron Rodgers and the front office has been solid, with the locker room feeling a renewed spirit as soon as he reported to camp -- Rodgers' $46 million cap hit for next year comes into focus. If -- and it's a massive if -- Rodgers wants to return, the team will probably need to address his deal, which voids seven days before the 2023 new league year. I asked a few NFL salary-cap folks about it, and they said an easy way to lessen the hit would be to convert much of his $26.5 million salary (let's say $16 million) into a signing bonus, adding dummy/voidable years to reduce the cap hit by at least $12 million. The Packers don't have to do this, but they have options if both sides decide to keep the party going. Or, they could just give him another mega-extension.

• The Vikings are fairly optimistic QB Kirk Cousins will be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Bears game. If not, it's unclear if rookie Kellen Mond would get a shot, even if some in the building wouldn't mind seeing it. The Vikings internally discussed the merits of playing Mond last week in Green Bay, with veteran Sean Mannion ultimately getting the start with Cousins out. But two themes prevailed: Mannion has more experience in the offense, and the Vikings don't want to disrupt the long-term plan for Mond. Minnesota is keenly aware of the struggles of rookie quarterbacks all over the league. So a true redshirt year might still be in order.

• The Titans remain optimistic that RB Derrick Henry can get back for the playoffs -- especially if Tennessee lands a first-round bye. Tennessee's plan all along has been to manage the injury storm and play its brand of football in January, with Henry as the catalyst.