Race for No. 1 pick in NFL draft 2022: Jaguars or Lions? Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux? 13 big questions

We're heading into the final week of the 2021 NFL season, and the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft is down to just a couple of teams. All signs are pointing toward the Jacksonville Jaguars landing the top selection for a second consecutive year, and a loss or tie on Sunday would secure it for the two-win team. (The Jags could even get it with a win if things break the right way.)

But it isn't your standard year for the top of the draft. As of now, it looks like a non-QB will be the first prospect off the board for just the fifth time in 21 years, and it's tough to predict what will happen at the No. 1 spot. So we called in NFL insider Jeremy Fowler and draft expert Jordan Reid to bring some clarity to the first pick. Will it be the Jaguars, or could things change up in the final week of the season? Who are the candidates to go first overall, and what makes them elite talents? Are there any other players who could rise into the mix, and why isn't there a quarterback worthy of the top selection this year?

Fowler and Reid answer 13 big questions about the No. 1 pick, weaving in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) predictions, what the game tape says about the class' best prospects and what NFL execs think could happen when the clock starts on April 28. Let's jump in, starting with which teams are still in the running to have the first overall pick.

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Jags or Lions? | Hutchinson or Thibodeaux?
No QB in the mix? | Jaguars' offseason
Predicting the top two picks

ESPN's FPI gives Jacksonville an 83.1% chance to pick No. 1 overall, with a home game against the Colts remaining. No way the Jags win that, right?

Fowler: Well, I watched the Jaguars beat the Bills two months back, so I won't take it completely off the table. But ... yeah, no way. The Colts are pushing toward the playoffs, and the Jaguars are pushing toward the draft. And the Urban Meyer firing never galvanized the team, which came out flat in back-to-back losses under interim coach Darrell Bevell. Add in the fact that Jacksonville is generally bad in multiple areas of the game, and a win seems unlikely.

If the Jaguars do somehow win, what other teams are still in the running for the top pick?

Fowler: The Lions (2-13-1) are the only other contender here. Three or fewer wins is typically the sweet spot for No. 1-pick contention, so the Texans and Jets left that shameful room upon reaching four wins in Week 16. ESPN's FPI is giving Detroit a 16.9% chance to jump the Jaguars in the final week. The Jaguars would need to win, and the Lions would need to lose to the Packers. Jacksonville would win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker if it finishes with the same record as Detroit, which is unlikely because of the Lions' tie.

OK, so the Jags it is. Who could they target at the top of the draft?

Reid: There is still a long way to go until April, but it looks like there won't be a quarterback competing for the top spot in the 2022 class -- though the Jaguars wouldn't be interested in one anyway after taking Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 in 2021. That means it's all about the edge rushers. There are clear leaders for the top two picks: Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson and Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux, who are Nos. 1 and 2 in Mel Kiper Jr.'s and Todd McShay's rankings.

Hutchinson and Thibodeaux will be debated closely over the next three months, particularly at the NFL combine in March. The pre-draft process will do a lot to determine which pass-rusher ends up above the other. But here's an outside possibility to watch for, particularly if the Jags do get the No. 1 pick: Alabama left tackle Evan Neal, who would provide immediate protection at either tackle spot for Lawrence.

What are people in the league saying about Thibodeaux and Hutchinson?

Fowler: It's the classic convergence of upside and explosion vs. the sure thing with a slightly lower ceiling. One NFC exec put it this way with Hutchinson: He might not be a home run, but he's, at worst, a stand-up double. In other words, people around the league believe Hutchinson has virtually no risk of being a bust, a clean prospect in every way. He will be productive. A team picking first or second might want that -- especially Detroit, which could sell the promise of a famed Michigan product.

Thibodeaux has more flashes of brilliance, but as an AFC exec cautioned, "I watched several of his games, and I barely saw him make a play. Hutchinson at least shows up every week." Now, some give Thibodeaux grace in this area because of injury (a left ankle sprain cost him snaps) and lofty expectations dating back to his high school days. Perhaps he paced himself a bit, to which teams are more sympathetic as players try to get to the draft fresh and healthy. An AFC exec said, "Explosion and range ... I would take him. He scares you more."

What makes each edge rusher so good?

Reid: Hutchinson had a dominant 2021 season on the way to finishing second in the Heisman Trophy race. At 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, he is a lean athlete who operates off build-up speed. His acceleration off the line of scrimmage helps him take advantage of pass-blockers, but it's his quick counter step back inside that has helped him rack up most of his production, including 14 sacks this season. He has been highly disruptive crossing the face of pass protectors, and he's reliable against the run, too, as he has the length and power to close the door on perimeter runs. Hutchinson has infectious energy and goes all-out on every play.

The 6-foot-5, 258-pound Thibodeaux is a toolsy edge rusher who has shown flashes of dominance in his Oregon career. He took another step in his development in 2021, racking up seven sacks and two forced fumbles. The keyword with him is "potential," as the feeling is that Thibodeaux still has a ways to go to reach his ceiling. He is an underrated run defender and is still learning how to use his traits to turn those flashes into more consistent production.

Thibodeaux is not as polished as Hutchinson right now, but he could finish as the better pro if he's able to unlock all of his untapped potential.

Is there any way Jacksonville doesn't take an edge rusher? Or could a team try to trade up to No. 1?

Fowler: Alabama's Neal will likely be in the mix. Jacksonville's offensive line underachieved big-time in 2021, and the Jaguars need help along both lines. Neal wouldn't fit in, say, a San Francisco scheme that prioritizes a tackle with Trent Williams-level traits. But as a veteran NFC scout said, Neal is so long and big that NFL pass-rushers will have a hard time getting around him, making him friendly to offenses with traditional passing sets.

As for trading down, Jacksonville would love to move out for more draft assets. And several teams in the top 10 will try. But supply and demand will be an issue because of the weak quarterback class.

Yeah, so why isn't there a QB worthy of the top pick? And if not at No. 1, when will the first QB come off the board?

Reid: It's just one of those classes. Look at 2000, when a quarterback didn't get drafted until No. 18 (Chad Pennington to the Jets), and 2013, when a QB didn't get drafted until No. 16 (EJ Manuel to the Bills). Those years are rare, but there just haven't been huge risers like Zach Wilson, Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield, let alone signal-callers like Lawrence and Justin Fields who we knew would be drafted early. The 2022 class doesn't have a surefire top-10 quarterback with early-starter physical traits.

And after polling scouts and executives throughout the NFL, there's a mix of opinions on who exactly is the top quarterback in this class. Some say Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett, while others say Ole Miss' Matt Corral. Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, Liberty's Malik Willis and North Carolina's Sam Howell have fans, too. The general feeling is that the first QB is likely to be drafted outside the top eight picks, which would make it the latest that the first one has been picked since that 2013 draft. Again, there's a lot that could change over the course of the next three months, but this is not a stellar QB class at the top.

Regardless of where Jacksonville picks, what's its biggest need?

Reid: A strong argument could be made for offensive tackle, wide receiver or edge rusher. With Cam Robinson likely headed elsewhere after playing on the franchise tag, and 2019 second-round pick Jawaan Taylor's inconsistency, Walker Little remains the only potential depth player at offensive tackle. Jacksonville needs a dependable player at the position.

And beyond the line, the pass-catching cupboard remained bare after receiver DJ Chark Jr. was placed on injured reserve. Lawrence's top targets were Laquon Treadwell, Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Tavon Austin. I wouldn't be surprised to see wide receiver atop the team's list of needs as it searches for a true No. 1.

The Jags' other big offseason decision is picking a new coach: What's the latest there?

Fowler: Jacksonville has met in-person with two former head coaches: Doug Pederson and Jim Caldwell. The Jaguars will also meet virtually with several candidates this week, including Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Nothing is imminent. Jacksonville will likely remain patient. It has to get this right after the Meyer debacle.

And should we be worried at all about Lawrence's rookie season?

Fowler: Mild concern is understandable. You want your franchise quarterback to show late-season promise, and Lawrence has two touchdown passes and eight interceptions since the Jaguars last won a game in early November. But he largely gets a pass here. Jacksonville failed in supporting Lawrence's development, thanks to Meyer's toxic approach to NFL culture and a lack of offensive talent around him. Lawrence's skill set is enormous and will be properly showcased with an inspired coaching hire and positional upgrades via free agency and the draft.

Would the Lions be making the same decision at No. 1 if they land it?

Reid: Yes. It seems whichever team lands the top overall pick will be deciding which defensive end it prefers between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Each has the potential to be a productive pro, and Detroit needs help all over. Besides, the Lions are tied for the second-fewest sacks in the NFL (with the Jaguars) at 26.

It's also important to remember that Detroit has a second first-rounder this year. It has the Rams' selection, which is currently projected to be in the late 20s.

Who else could rise into the No. 1 pick conversation over the next few months?

Reid: Neal could certainly be in play, given Jacksonville's glaring need at the tackle position. But as of now and based on what evaluators in the league have told me, it seems to be a two-man race between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. That's surprising, but don't expect a quarterback to rise that high.

LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton and Alabama receiver Jameson Williams are prospects who could go in the top five, but it's unlikely that any of them rises to No. 1 based on positional value. While things could change -- again, there's a lot of time left in the pre-draft process -- this pick could already be down to two prospects.

Prediction time: Who will be the Jags' and Lions' picks at Nos. 1 and 2?

Fowler: The Jaguars take Thibodeaux at No. 1, the Lions take Hutchinson at No. 2. I asked some NFL team personnel around the league to break the tie between the two players, and Thibodeaux won by a slight margin. The Jaguars will try to trade out, and if there are no takers, they should take Thibodeaux for his high-end traits. Hutchinson would be a dream pick for Detroit.

Reid: A three-sack performance against Ohio State in November made Hutchinson the consensus top prospect, but when it's all said and done, I still believe that the Jaguars take Thibodeaux at No. 1, and the Lions take Hutchinson at No. 2. However, we don't know who the Jaguars' next head coach will be, and that will play a part.