With their dramatic victory over the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon, the Bengals became the latest NFL team to go from worst to first in its division.
If anything, Joe Burrow & Co. earned a few bonus points; the Bengals were in the AFC North basement for three consecutive seasons before turning things around. The Eagles, another last-place team in 2020, will join Cincinnati in the postseason, while the 49ers have a 60.2% chance of joining them, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
We could see three of the eight last-place teams from 2020 playing postseason football in two weeks. That's more than usual, but it's a reminder of how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Let's look at the eight last-place teams from the 2021 season and rank their chances of going worst-to-first in 2022.
Before we get started, here's a quick glance at how the Bengals turned things around. What changed?
They got a full, productive season from Burrow. The former LSU star missed 6½ games in 2020 after tearing his left ACL, but he has been healthy for all 16 games this season. The Bengals actually had a better record without Burrow in 2020 than they did with their first overall pick, but let's be realistic and suggest that a full season of him was better than relying on Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. After two spectacular games, Burrow is 11th in the league in Total QBR, up from 24th a year ago.
They nailed their first-round pick and free agency. With all due respect to Penei Sewell, the Bengals don't regret passing up the offensive tackle to take Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow's former LSU teammate is finishing up one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen from a wide receiver, peaking with his 266-yard performance against the Chiefs. Swapping in a superstar for an incredibly inefficient season from A.J. Green was a massive upgrade.
On top of that, they were able to land a difference-maker in free agency by signing pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson. I wasn't a fan of the deal when it happened, but after a 14-sack, 27-knockdown season, it's hard to argue with the results. Cincy also imported contributors Mike Hilton and Larry Ogunjobi and got D.J. Reader, one of their big additions from the 2020 offseason, back from a serious quad injury. The Bengals improved from 27th to 14th in defensive DVOA this season.
They were luckier. The Bengals were better than their record a year ago on a snap-by-snap basis, but they went 1-5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, owing to some well-timed aggressiveness, they are a much more reasonable 4-4 in those same contests.
It would have been reasonable to expect the Bengals to improve, but I don't think anyone saw them as likely winners in the AFC North, myself included. These eight teams won't feel like future division champs as we watch them finish in last, but let's run through what it might take to get them to follow in Cincinnati's footsteps. I'll start with the last-place team I think is least likely to win its division next year and work toward my most likely pick: