NFL Week 16 upset picks, bold playoff predictions and league buzz: Who will win Coach of the Year? Is David Culley on the hot seat?

Welcome to Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season, which with any luck won't take as long to complete as Week 15. But such is the nature of changing COVID-19 protocols and virus outbreaks. We asked insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the hottest topics of the week and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

They first delve into the postseason and which teams could upset the apple cart before we get there. They then make their predictions for 2021 Coach of the Year, which features a few familiar faces and some new ones.

Graziano and Fowler also look at the future for the teams that will miss the postseason. Which will be ready and able to change their fortunes in 2022? They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week.

We'll start with bold playoff predictions and then hit upset picks of the week:

Jump to:
Playoff predictions | Coach of the Year
Upset picks | Playoff bounce-backs
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

The NFL postseason picture is muddled: Give us a bold playoff race prediction for down the stretch:

Fowler: Three AFC North teams sneak into the playoffs. Anything can happen in a division with all four teams stuck between seven and eight wins. No one seems ready to go away, so let's watch them play their way into the dance. The percentages are not far off, with ESPN Football Power Index projecting a 57% chance for the Ravens, 49.3% for the Bengals, 18.7% for the Steelers and 16.4% for the Browns. At least two AFC teams from other divisions would need to falter late, but the way this season has played out, that's entirely possible.

Graziano: The Colts run down the Titans and steal the AFC South. This is bold because Indy is a game back and lost both games to Tennessee, so they have to pass them to avoid losing out on the tiebreaker. If the Titans win two of their remaining games, this cannot happen. But man, I just watched the Titans fumble away a game they absolutely should have won Sunday in Pittsburgh, and I could absolutely see them losing Thursday to the 49ers and again next week to the red-hot Dolphins. Not saying I'll pick the games that way, but both results are certainly feasible. The Titans are banged up on offense at a terrible time, and the Colts are playing well behind sudden MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor. If they can beat the Cardinals on the road on Christmas night, their final two against the Raiders and Jaguars look winnable.

Fowler: It feels like Taylor is fully capable of chasing down an entire team! And I haven't buried Seattle yet, which is now 5-9 after a loss to the Rams on Tuesday. The Seahawks have a slim chance to sneak into the wild card, but there's a lot of pride on the line for a team that is facing its first losing season since Russell Wilson took over the starting quarterback job in 2012. The defense has settled down of late and Rashaad Penny is giving the running game some juice. The schedule is manageable enough that they could win their final three games: Lions, Bears and Cardinals down the stretch.

Graziano: Yeah, I'd never rule out Pete Carroll and Wilson from making the playoffs. And the way the NFC is shaking out, it's not impossible that the No. 7 seed will have an 8-9 record. (The Bears were a wild card last year at 8-8.) What we know for sure about the Seahawks is that they'll scrap right to the end.

What's your top upset pick for Week 16?

Graziano: Dolphins (+3) over Saints. I'm buying into the resurgence of Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Not sure they got going in time to make the playoffs, but it looks like it'll be close. And as gutty as the Saints looked shutting out the Bucs 9-0 on Sunday night, I just think they're still way short on the offensive side of the ball. Miami keeps it rolling on Monday Night Football.

Fowler: Bills (+2.5) over Patriots. Some teams that you value as a contender are hard to let go. Maybe that's the case with Buffalo, which looks like a good team this year -- not a great one. But I'm still sold, and the Bills will bring an edge Sunday after the Patriots ran all over them in Week 13. If Buffalo finds a semblance of a running game that doesn't include Josh Allen getting pummeled downfield, it can secure the win in Foxboro.

Graziano: That's my game this weekend for Sunday NFL Countdown. Boy, would it be something to see the Bills turn it around after all this time in their most important game of the year. It would change the entire conversation about their year, the Patriots' year and the power structure of the AFC. Buffalo is a preseason favorite that hasn't played like one, but there's still time -- if it can win this game.

Who's your pick to win NFL Coach of the Year?

Fowler: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers. The "but he has Aaron Rodgers" crowd needs to consider the big picture with LaFleur. He's a ridiculous 37-9 since taking over in 2019, winning at an 80.4% rate. In the decade before LaFleur's arrival, Green Bay won 62.5% of the time. Rodgers is finishing his best two-year stretch since 2011-12. The lineup is short several Pro Bowl players due to injury, and it hasn't mattered.

Graziano: LaFleur is a good pick for all the reasons you state. I probably would pick him, too. But so as not to be boring and repetitive here, I'll give you another really strong candidate: Bill Belichick. Did anybody have the Patriots winning the AFC East this year? If they beat the Bills on Sunday, that's exactly what they'll have done. This race is loaded with good candidates this year, though their candidacies are in flux over the final few weeks. John Harbaugh, for example, has navigated some of the toughest personnel waters of any coach all year. If the Ravens win the AFC North, he has to get strong consideration.

Fowler: Can't argue with Belichick. He has won nine games, groomed a rookie quarterback and even apologized to the media. Oh, the range! Agree on Harbaugh, but his team has to shark those two losses on failed two-point conversions. Like the boldness, but the decisions might cost Baltimore a playoff spot.

Which team likely to miss the playoffs this season would you bet on to make the playoffs in 2022?

Graziano: How about the Denver Broncos? It's hard to find a lot of teams that are definitely out of the race because the field is so jumbled. But if the Broncos miss, they have a strong enough roster that they can plug in one of the potentially available veteran quarterbacks and become an instant playoff team in 2022.

Fowler: What I often hear in league circles about Denver: If only they had a franchise quarterback. That's not a knock on Teddy Bridgewater, who has been solid, but he's widely considered a backend No. 1 in the league. Overall, the roster is largely stacked. I'm staying in the AFC West with the Las Vegas Raiders. The defense is slowly accumulating talent, Derek Carr has moments of brilliance, and the offense can replace Henry Ruggs III in the draft to put the passing attack over the top.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• Chris Godwin's ACL tear less than four months before free agency isn't ideal, but he should remain well-positioned for a long-term deal in March. The Bucs wideout was having a career year with 98 catches for 1,103 yards. He's 25 years old. Some execs believe his damaged knee could affect his market slightly, but as one pointed out, "Bud Dupree. All it takes is one team." Dupree got a five-year, $82.5 million deal with Tennessee despite tearing his ACL in early December 2020. The pass-rusher started the season slowly but looked explosive on a sack of Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday. A separate exec said the only issue is whether Godwin will need to start 2022 on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which could affect how a contract is structured. Any team signing Godwin as a No. 1 receiver will likely be thinking long-term.

• Sam Darnold could have a role this week as Carolina tries to spark its offense. He is trending toward being available for Week 16, and though he isn't cleared for contact yet, that could happen soon. Don't be surprised if Darnold is on the field in some capacity, as the team has told both Darnold and P.J. Walker to stay ready. Cam Newton, the starter over the last month, is still in the mix, and the Panthers will see how practice goes this week. Carolina ranks 29th in total offense and needs a spark in the worst way. Darnold struggled mightily before his Week 9 shoulder injury, but he did start off hot. And with his 2022 salary of $18.58 million already guaranteed, giving him another chance to create positive momentum makes sense.

• A productive week of practice could earn quarterback Jake Fromm his first-career start for the Giants. Mike Glennon will compete with Fromm this week, but he has had three weeks to prove he could move the ball and the Giants remain stagnant. Fromm, drafted by the Bills in the fifth round in 2020, should be in line for playing time against the Eagles.

• One-and-done head coaches are rare, but there is at least some chatter in NFL circles about David Culley's future in Houston. This has been going on for a few weeks now. The Texans are immersed in a lengthy rebuild and will need to sort out who will lead it. Culley has shown promise, to be sure, and let's be honest -- a 3-11 record with this roster is an overachievement. So maybe he gets a second year to get comfortable. But this job might be one to watch in January.

Graziano

• To follow up on Jeremy's point about Culley: The sense I've gotten the past couple of weeks is that Houston will in fact give him another year, in part because the team thinks it might be tough to lure a top coach there this offseason when things are still looking so unsettled for 2022. If you're going to fire the guy you hired a year ago, you want to make sure you're upgrading. If general manager Nick Caserio has a difference-making head-coaching candidate in mind, he might be better off waiting until after the 2022 season, when the direction of the franchise has a little more clarity, if he wants to attract the best possible candidates.

• It was tough watching Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill try to hold off the Steelers on Sunday once Julio Jones went out because of a hamstring injury. Tannehill just didn't have many places to go with the ball. And with the Titans playing on Thursday this week, it could be too tight a turnaround for Jones to be back in time. As for fellow star wideout A.J. Brown, he's eligible to return from injured reserve this week, and people I spoke to about this situation say Brown is close to being ready, though they weren't sure he'd be ready in time for Thursday night. The sense I get is that if the game were Sunday this week, Brown might have made it back in time, but instead he's a question mark. Regardless, it sounds like Brown will be healthy and back in the lineup Week 17 at the latest.

• The NFL had 47 players test positive for COVID-19 on Monday, which prompted me to ask when the new testing protocols (no longer testing asymptomatic, vaccinated players or personnel weekly) were going to take effect. The answer was that they took effect Monday, which then prompted me to ask why so many positives. The answer to that was that symptomatic vaccinated people still will be tested, and that the move away from regular weekly testing is accompanied by procedures for stricter symptom checks. Basically, if you have the sniffles, you're probably going to get tested. Yes, they will rely to some extent on players to report their own symptoms, but it's also possible that a team doctor or trainer who observes you and thinks you have symptoms could pull you in to get tested.

• Sunday night's shutout of the Buccaneers was a strong showcase for Dennis Allen, the Saints' defensive coordinator who replaced Sean Payton as acting head coach for the game, and Ryan Nielsen, whose title is assistant head coach and defensive line coach. Allen is a former Raiders head coach who got some interviews last year and could be on teams' radars next month when the coaching carousel begins to spin. Nielsen is a prospect who'd probably take over as defensive coordinator if Allen were to leave and could be a head-coaching candidate down the road. Allen isn't the only former NFL head coach with a shot to get back in the league this offseason. Former Eagles coach Doug Pederson is expected to be a candidate of interest in several places, including Jacksonville. Out of the league this year, Pederson has the advantage of being able to interview any time he wants, and he has been able to have conversations with assistant coaches he'd want to bring with him. Former Colts and Lions head coach Jim Caldwell is in a similar situation and of interest to teams with openings and potential openings. Other former NFL head coaches whose names you're likely to hear a lot in a few weeks on the interview circuit are Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.