On Thursday night, we'll see the third game of a burgeoning rivalry between two of the most talented young quarterbacks in football. Justin Herbert made an unexpected debut in Week 2 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last season, taking over the Chargers' starting job with no advance notice after Tyrod Taylor's lung was punctured by the team doctor before the game. Herbert gave a good accounting of himself in a narrow 23-20 loss, but while the Chiefs pulled this one out in 2020, Herbert & Co. roared back with a 30-24 victory in Week 3 this season.
More than any other combination of young quarterbacks in the league at the moment, this feels like it has the chance to turn into a classic rivalry in the years to come. All of the criteria you would look for are there. These are two of the best signal-callers, playing for successful teams, in a division in which they'll get to face off twice per season. Mahomes might end up getting pitted against guys such as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but until the Broncos and Raiders land on someone as good as Herbert, this is going to be his closest rivalry.
Of course, what seems like a classic rivalry early in a pair of young careers doesn't always go that way. It looked like Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott were going to play each other for a decade, but that ended when Wentz was dealt to the Colts earlier this season. Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota were No. 1 overall picks playing each other in the AFC South, but neither is there any longer. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers seemed like a perfect match of antagonists, but Cutler was traded away by former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels after three seasons. The Brett Favre-Steve Young-Troy Aikman triangle match in the early 1990s didn't see one another often enough. You get the idea.
As I thought about it more, I realized that I needed to take a step backward. What actually qualifies as a significant, long-term rivalry in the NFL? How many times do two quarterbacks have to play each other before it stands out as historically significant? And is there a rivalry from history that might look like what we'll hope to see from Mahomes and Herbert in the years to come?
To answer these questions, I looked at every quarterback matchup since 1970 in which the starter threw at least two passes. I tracked each passer's record against every other starter he faced over the course of their respective careers. There have been a total of 12 quarterback rivalries over that timeframe in which two passers matched up against each other at least 16 times. Let's run through those 12 matchups and what happened over the course of their rivalries. There are two quarterbacks who appear more than once on the list, and I would be surprised if you could guess either of them without cheating. I certainly couldn't.
And one final thing before we start: Let's not be pedantic. Saying one quarterback won a game over the other is recounting history. It's not a stat measuring the quality of their play. Mahomes and Herbert will happily trade an impressive performance for a victory on Thursday night. Let's see how the most substantial rivalries in modern league history went down:
12. Cam Newton vs. Matt Ryan
Ryan 10, Newton 6
We start with a rivalry that just qualified for this list last week. These two had plenty of opportunities to play each other in the NFC South, and while a matchup between two bad teams on the fringes of the playoff race last week didn't exactly attract national attention, Ryan and Newton have had plenty to battle for in years past. These guys won consecutive MVP awards in 2015 and 2016, and you could argue that the Newton-Ryan rivalry played a key role in the former's campaign.
In 2015, Newton's best performance of the season by passer rating came in a 38-0 win over the Falcons, as he went 15-of-21 for 265 yards and three touchdowns before coming out in garbage time. Ryan and the Falcons responded two weeks later in Atlanta by ending 14-0 Carolina's bid for a perfect season, as Ryan threw for 306 yards and a touchdown in a 20-13 game.
While the Falcons pulled out the upset victory that day, the Panthers made a habit of sealing their postseason bids in Atlanta. In Week 17 of the 2013 season, Carolina clinched its first NFC South title in the Newton era with a 21-20 overtime victory over the Falcons, sacking Ryan nine times in the process. The following year, in a winner-take-all game for the NFC South, a 6-8-1 Panthers team blew out the Falcons at the Georgia Dome. The 34-3 defeat led the Falcons to fire Mike Smith.
Ryan holds the overall lead in this rivalry, but Carolina's victories have been more memorable.
11. Roger Staubach vs. Jim Hart
Staubach 11, Hart 5
In a battle of two quarterbacks who competed in the NFC East despite playing their home games west of the Mississippi, Hart's Cardinals were some of the stiffest competition Staubach typically faced from year to year. Going 5-11 (.313) against Staubach might not sound impressive, but consider that the rest of the league went a combined 24-74 (.245) against the future Hall of Famer and his Cowboys.
The best years of the rivalry started in 1974, when Hart managed his first significant victory over Staubach. (He beat the Cowboys in 1970 in a game in which Staubach threw only six pass attempts.) Staubach's Cowboys managed a split in '74 and again the following year, but the Cardinals won the division both times, marking their first division titles since 1947, when they were the Chicago Cardinals. Hart & Co. faded after three competitive seasons, with Staubach winning five of the final six matchups before retiring.
10. Boomer Esiason vs. Warren Moon
Moon 10, Esiason 6
It's incredible that Moon managed to start 16 NFL games against anyone, given that the CFL star didn't make his NFL debut until he turned 28 in 1984. Esiason was five years younger than the Oilers star, but he took his NFL bow that same year. With the Oilers and Bengals competing twice a year in the AFC Central, 15 of their 16 matchups took place on those two teams. The one exception came in 1994, when a 38-year-old Moon threw for 400 yards and four interceptions as a member of the Vikings in a loss to Esiason's Jets. The 400-4 club has only 12 members, but Moon and Esiason are both in it.
I can't speak to the relationship between Esiason and Moon, but their two teams certainly did not like each other. Things came to a head in 1989, when the Bengals blew out the Oilers 61-7. Esiason was bloodied early in the game by a hit, and Cincinnati spent the rest of the game trying to run up the score and embarrass its rivals. Bengals coach Sam Wyche gave the sort of news conference that would break Twitter today. "We don't like their team. We don't like their people," Wyche said after the game. "They've got their tails tucked between their legs and they're going home, which is just the way it should be. They're the dumbest, most undisciplined, stupid football team we've ever played."
For a dumb, undisciplined football team, the Oilers still managed to go 10-5 against the Bengals with Moon facing Esiason.
9. Ken Anderson vs. Terry Bradshaw
Anderson 8, Bradshaw 8
Another classic rivalry from the Central, this is the only even matchup on our list. As you might suspect given their dynasty, Bradshaw and the Steelers dominated this game in the '70s, with the Steel Curtain defense leading Pittsburgh to seven division titles in eight years. The Bengals broke up that streak with a title in 1973, and they played the Steelers closer than the rest of the league, but Pittsburgh won six of the first eight matchups between these two quarterbacks.
Things changed around the turn of the decade into the 1980s. Anderson looked like he might have been on his way out of the league, but the arrival of coach Forrest Gregg turned around the Bengals. Anderson swept the Steelers in 1980 and then blew out Bradshaw in 1981 in a season in which Anderson won MVP and the Bengals made it to the Super Bowl. Bradshaw got his revenge during the strike-shortened 1982 season and then played one more game before retiring.
8. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning
Brady 11, Manning 6
It's only the most storied rivalry between two quarterbacks in league history. What I do find at least a little ironic, though, is that the original story between these two ended up flipped on its head. In the early debates comparing Brady and Manning, the arguments revolved around the idea that Manning posted better numbers, while Brady was the one who came up big in the postseason and kept blocking Manning's path toward a Super Bowl. In the long run, while Brady posted the better overall record, Manning was the one who actually won the postseason battle, beating Brady in three of their five playoff matchups.
While there are several legendary games between these two, the game that stands out is the one that seemed to put this rivalry on equal footing. Brady won six straight games to start this rivalry, including two postseason contests. Manning and the Colts won back-to-back regular-season games in 2005 and 2006 to finally break their schneid, but in the way that we move the goalposts back for quarterbacks who struggle to win in the postseason, it didn't count until Manning beat Brady in the playoffs.
Later in the 2006 season, Manning got his revenge in spectacular fashion. In the AFC Championship Game, a Manning pick-six put the Colts down 21-3 halfway through the second quarter. He brought the Colts back to tie the game at 21-21 in the third quarter, at which point the two teams traded touchdowns. The Patriots kicked a field goal to go up 34-31 with 3:53 to go and stopped Manning, but Brady couldn't seal the game on the ensuing possession and went three-and-out, nearly throwing a pick-six in the process. Manning drove the Colts 80 yards in just over a minute for a winning touchdown. Brady drove the Pats to midfield and then threw an interception, sealing the game up for the Colts. Two weeks later, Manning had his first Super Bowl win. Brady didn't win another Super Bowl until 2014.
Of course, Brady has done just fine. He holds flawless, undefeated records over Ryan (8-0), Philip Rivers (8-0) and Andrew Luck (6-0). The only signal-callers who have played Brady more than three times and posted a winning record against him are Drew Brees (against whom Brady is 3-5) and the guy in our next pairing, whose 3-2 record against Brady includes a pair of Super Bowl wins.
7. Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo
Romo 10, Manning 7
The other Manning brother had his own rivalry, and while the games between the Giants and Cowboys aren't quite as legendary, they did not lack for drama. Romo started this rivalry by winning the first three matchups and ended it by winning his final five against Manning's Giants. In just over a full season of work, Romo threw for 4,613 yards and 40 touchdowns against his division rivals.
As a microcosm of both their careers, while Romo won more frequently and posted better numbers, Manning won the games that were most consequential. The Cowboys swept the Giants during the regular season in 2007, scoring a combined 76 points across two games. The Cowboys won the East and hosted the Giants in the postseason, but Romo was battered by a dominant Giants pass rush and went just 18-of-36 for 201 yards in a 21-17 loss. The Giants would eventually follow their upset win over Dallas with a slightly more famous upset in the Super Bowl.
That was the only playoff game between these two, but they would hook up for a de facto playoff game in 2011. The final game of the regular season was a prime-time matchup between the Cowboys and Giants in which the winner would take the NFC East. Romo played well, but he turned the ball over twice. Manning had one of the best games of his career, throwing a 74-yard touchdown to Victor Cruz while going 24-of-33 for 346 yards and three touchdowns. A Giants team that had lost five out of six games weeks earlier won the East at 9-7 and ran off four straight playoff wins to claim the other Super Bowl of the Manning era.
6. Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford
Rodgers 13, Stafford 4
Well, this is slightly more one-sided. Rodgers went 12-4 against Stafford's Lions, and one of those losses was a Week 17 game in which Rodgers started and threw only five passes before leaving a 31-0 Lions rout. This doesn't even include the more famous Week 17 game against the Lions that Matt Flynn started and threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns. Stafford threw for 520 yards and still lost, coming within 1 yard of the NFL record for most passing yards in a defeat.
Rodgers also holds a victory over Stafford in his new digs, with the Packers beating the Rams 36-28 in Week 12 this season. While Rodgers could get traded out of the NFC before the 2022 season begins, there's still a chance of Stafford getting one final shot to overcome his tormentor on a significant stage. The Rams are huge favorites to finish with the No. 5 seed in the NFC by ESPN's Football Power Index, while the Packers are in close to a dead heat with the Bucs for the No. 1 seed. If Green Bay finishes with the top seed and the Rams pull an upset in the wild-card round, there's a decent chance these two would get one final shot against each other at Lambeau Field in the divisional round.
5. Terry Bradshaw vs. Dan Pastorini
Bradshaw 13, Pastorini 5
Well, this was one-sided. The Steelers weren't exactly throwing the ball around the field all day, as Bradshaw threw 20 passes or fewer in nine of these 18 matchups, but they didn't really give Pastorini's Oilers much of a chance in the Central. The Steelers won these games by an average of more than 10 points. The Oilers didn't win the division once in Pastorini's nine years with the organization. Unlike the rivalry between Romo and Eli Manning, Bradshaw won most of the regular-season games and then cleaned up in the postseason, too.
The Oilers made playoff runs in 1978 and 1979, with the combo of Pastorini and running back Earl Campbell beating the Dolphins, Patriots and Broncos. Guess who ended their run both times? In 1978, the Oilers lost 34-5 to the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, with Pastorini throwing five interceptions. The following year, Campbell could muster only 15 yards on 17 carries, while Pastorini posted a 74.0 passer rating in a controversial 27-13 loss. It was his last game with the organization, as the Oilers traded him to the Raiders for Ken Stabler the following offseason.
4. John Elway vs. Dave Krieg
Elway 10, Krieg 8
While the first 14 matchups between these teams came in the AFC West rivalry between the Broncos and Seahawks, Krieg actually ended up starting for four different teams against the future Hall of Famer. After leaving Seattle, he took up the fight for the Chiefs in 1992, the Cardinals in 1995 and the Bears in 1996. Elway finished with a winning record and is certainly the more notable quarterback, but Krieg battled Elway to a 7-7 draw in 14 games as the starter in Seattle.
These two never met in the playoffs, but they had a habit of meeting at the end of regular seasons. Six of their matchups in the AFC West took place during the final three weeks of the season. There, Krieg also held the upper hand, as his Chiefs and Seahawks went 4-2. Elway beat Krieg in the final week of the 1984 season to earn the Broncos a division title, but Krieg responded by winning four straight late-season matchups, including one that helped push the Seahawks ahead of the Broncos for a wild-card spot in 1988. This was a fairer, closer fight than you might have guessed from the names involved.
3. Joe Flacco vs. Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger 12, Flacco 7
While there's a slim chance we could get a 20th matchup between these two quarterbacks in 2022, the rumors surrounding Roethlisberger's potential retirement and Flacco's diminished level of play suggest this might be the final season for both. The Ravens-Steelers matchups of the past decade weren't exactly the most stylish passing battles of their generation, but they were often dramatic in their own way. Surviving might have qualified as winning against some of those defenses.
This was another series that started as a one-sided streak. Roethlisberger won the first six matchups between these two, including an AFC Championship Game victory in 2008 and a dramatic comeback win in the divisional round two years later. The Steelers made it to the Super Bowl both seasons. Flacco responded by sweeping the Steelers in 2011 and beating Roethlisberger in the 2014 playoffs. They even had a bizarre shootout in 2017, with Roethlisberger throwing the ball 66 times for 506 yards as the Steelers clinched the AFC North title with a 39-38 win.
2. Jim Kelly vs. Dan Marino
Kelly 14, Marino 7
When I think about the possibility of a Herbert-Mahomes rivalry stretching a decade, this is the best-case scenario that comes to mind. Marino was the Mahomes of his generation, a quarterback who immediately emerged in his first full season as league MVP while molding the sport into something different and new with his arm. Herbert isn't as obvious of a parallel for Kelly, who excelled in the USFL before making the move to the NFL, but the Bills were one of the most modern, pass-friendly schemes in the league running the "K-Gun" at their peak. Herbert's Chargers are more creative on the defensive side and with their fourth-down decision-making, but just as modern football looks more like those Bills, football teams 20 years from now might look and play more like these Chargers.
As good as Marino and the Dolphins were at times, they just weren't much of a match for the Bills. Marino swept Kelly and Buffalo in 1986, but after Marv Levy took over as the permanent coach the following year, Kelly won 12 of these next 15 matchups. The Bills proceeded to run off six division titles in eight years, with the Dolphins claiming the other two.
Crucially, Kelly's Bills knocked the Dolphins out of the playoffs three times. The most heartbreaking of those losses for Miami came in 1992, when the Dolphins won the division and advanced into the AFC Championship Game. Marino threw two interceptions, and the Dolphins turned the ball over five times in a 29-10 home loss; the Dolphins haven't made it back to the AFC Championship Game since.
1. Drew Brees vs. Matt Ryan
Brees 14, Ryan 9
I have to admit that I didn't know the most frequent matchup of two quarterbacks in the post-merger history was between Brees and Ryan. We should have made a bigger deal about this last year! Of course, think about it for a minute and it makes a little more sense. Brees and Ryan were in the same division for more than a decade. Neither player has a track record of missing much time due to injuries before Brees went down over the past couple of seasons, with injuries costing him two more matchups against Ryan in 2020. If anything, it's a surprise that these two never matched up in the playoffs.
Given how often they played, though, it's hard to compare this rivalry to what we saw between, say, Brady and Peyton Manning. Those two were almost always quarterbacking very good football teams. In this matchup, as heated as Falcons and Saints fans can be, one or both of the teams were often bad. There weren't many games late in the season in which both Ryan's Falcons and Brees' Saints had everything to play for in the NFC South.
There are a few late-season games that are close. In 2010, the 11-4 Saints beat the 12-3 Falcons, although Atlanta still went on to finish as the top seed in the NFC. A 45-16 blowout win over the Falcons the following season clinched the division for the Saints, although they lost in the playoffs at San Francisco in one of the greatest games in league history. In 2017, with a shot to take the division lead in Week 16 after beating the Saints two weeks earlier, the Falcons were manhandled in a 23-13 loss.
Of course, as frustrating as their teams could be at times, Falcons and Saints fans got to see a Hall of Fame quarterback and a borderline Hall of Famer duke it out 23 times over the course of 12 seasons. Given how bad quarterback situations can get around the NFL, that's a victory in its own right. We can hope that Herbert and Mahomes end up having a spectacular, Brady-Manning-esque rivalry, but we'll be lucky if they end up playing each other twice a year for the next decade, too.