While the NFC playoff picture has pretty clearly separated into two tiers of teams, the AFC is much more of a muddled mess. No team has more than nine wins, but 10 have at least seven victories so far. As many as 13 teams in the AFC can still realistically look themselves in the mirror and think they can win their way into the playoffs with four games to go.
Three of those teams are in danger of falling off the postseason guest list. The Bills, Ravens and Steelers all came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations. Despite getting off to solid starts, things haven't worked out in recent weeks.
The Bills have lost three of four, the Ravens three of five and the Steelers have won just once over the past month. These teams were 36-12 last season and a combined 17-8 before hitting their respective rough patches this season. They're not supposed to collectively fall apart in November and December.
Let's look into what has gone wrong for these three AFC contenders and figure out if they can turn things around. I'll use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to note their current playoff chances, starting in Buffalo, where the hopes were the highest they've been in 25 years heading into 2021. The Bills seemed on the cusp of living up to those expectations, only for a slip to turn their season in a drastically different direction:
Jump to a team:
Bills | Ravens | Steelers
Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Chances to win the AFC East: 24.5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 76.7%
When the Bills lined up to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the 3-yard line with 22 seconds left to go on Monday Night Football against the Titans in Week 6, it felt like they were about to ascend to the top of the AFC. A win over the Titans would have followed a blowout victory over the Chiefs and taken Buffalo to 5-1. The Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets -- a combined 3-14 at the time -- loomed after the upcoming bye. The arch-rival Patriots were floundering at 2-4. Josh Allen, who was about to try to convert in short yardage, was 13-of-14 on fourth-and-1 sneak attempts in his career. The Bills felt inevitable.
Their chances of winning Super Bowl LVI might have peaked as they broke the huddle for that play. Allen slipped and was stuffed on his sneak attempt by Tennessee's Jeffery Simmons, starting a stretch in which the Bills have gone 3-5. The same team that went 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer a year ago is 0-5 in those same games this season. The Patriots have reeled off seven straight wins, including a victory in the wind against Buffalo last Monday. The Bills might have been Super Bowl favorites with a win over Tennessee; now, there's a 23.3% chance they'll miss the postseason altogether, per ESPN's FPI.
The Bills go for it on 4th down and the @Titans stop 'em! #Titans pic.twitter.com/1Uqz4mguSJ
— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2021
The biggest problem for the Bills is right in line with the play that seemed to start this stretch of frustrating play. While the failed sneak was part of a disappointing running game, we can expand things further. The Bills simply aren't winning consistently at the line of scrimmage on either side of the football, and it's putting their key players away from the line in impossible positions.
Let's start with the running game, since it drew serious attention over the past two weeks. The Bills were criticized for throwing the ball against the Patriots, who contrasted things by running on 46 of their 49 snaps. Buffalo followed that up by not handing the ball off to a running back even once during the first half of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, with Devin Singletary and Matt Breida only begrudgingly getting seven carries after halftime. The Bills throw the ball a league-high 64% of the time on early downs in neutral game scripts, so it shouldn't be a surprise that their offensive struggles are being blamed on not running the ball effectively or frequently enough.
And yet, in 2020, when they were one of the league's best offenses, they threw the ball 61.9% of the time in those same situations, which was the third-highest rate in the league. The second-most pass-happy team in the league in those situations this season is the team they were playing on Sunday, the Bucs. The Bills ranked 22nd in rushing DVOA a year ago; they were 21st in the same category heading into the Bucs game. There's not an appreciable difference between how frequently or effectively they were running a year ago versus what they're doing this season.
I would characterize the past two games as unique situations. The wind game against the Patriots made passing virtually impossible for New England, whose offense typically only wants to throw short, accurate passes. The difference between the two teams on the ground was almost exclusively the rushing volume and one long touchdown run by Damien Harris. The Bills ran the ball 25 times for 99 yards (4.0 yards per carry) and five first downs (20% first down rate). Excluding Harris' 64-yard carry, New England's 45 other rush attempts produced 158 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and nine first downs (20% first down rate). Harris' run played a huge role -- and the Bills would have loved to have popped a long score on the ground -- but they were more effective moving the ball for the majority of that game than the Patriots.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a dominant defensive front and induce teams to throw more frequently than almost every other team. We saw the Bills go with an incredibly pass-heavy attack in a game like this last season, when Allen threw the ball 28 times against just two Zack Moss carries in the first half of a game against the Seahawks. It worked (and was lauded for working) then, as the Bills scored 24 points in the first half of a 44-34 victory.
The problem is that when the Bills do throw, the success we saw a year ago or even earlier in the season has not been there. And while they are running the ball about as frequently and effectively as they were in 2020, it's true that teams are devoting more resources to stopping the pass. Last season, the Bills faced two-deep coverages 33.4% of the time. That number moved up to 35.5% through the first five weeks of 2021 and up further to 40.7% from the Tennessee game forward.
The increase isn't as noticeable as the one the Chiefs have dealt with, and it hasn't stopped Allen from throwing deep; he leads the league in completions (20) and his plus-21.1% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on throws traveling 25 or more yards in the air ranks second this season. Instead, we've seen teams move from heavier doses of man coverage to more zone looks. Teams have gone from playing man 50.2% of the time against Allen last season to 39.3% of the time in 2021, which is the league's sixth-lowest man coverage rate. Allen ranks second in the NFL in QBR against man coverage, but he's only 13th in the league against zone.
Teams have been able to regularly pressure Allen in Buffalo's losses, most notably the stunning 9-6 defeat to the Jaguars. Turnovers have become a problem for both Allen and the team as a whole since the start of November. After turning the ball over just five times through the first six games, they have 13 turnovers in the past six contests. Six of those have come with Allen under duress, including an ugly interception to Richard Sherman during the Bills loss to the Bucs.
The consistent play of the line from a year ago just hasn't been there, owing in part to injuries. The team has essentially given up on 2019 second-rounder Cody Ford and moved natural tackle Daryl Williams inside to right guard to open up a spot for rookie third-rounder Spencer Brown, who then missed the better part of two months. Starting left guard Jon Feliciano has been missing for five games with a calf injury, and while he returned to the active roster for the Bucs game, he didn't play a single offensive snap. The depth that was present in years past up front isn't as significant these days, a product of the Bills spending money to extend their core pieces.
Running the ball more might help take some of the load off Allen and the passing game, but the Bills will have to do so effectively to justify the more balanced offense. As we saw from Matt Rhule's Panthers on Sunday, running the ball for the sake of having a large carry count at the end of the game doesn't solve anything. The Bills still generate 0.11 expected points added (EPA) per pass and 0.04 EPA per rush, and the latter figure includes Allen's scrambles, which come off called pass plays.
Overall, I'm less concerned about the Buffalo offense than I am by its defense. It had the best defense in football through the first five weeks of the season, generating minus-0.24 EPA per snap. That same defense is 20th in EPA per snap since and 25th over the last four games, when it has gone 1-3.
We've seen teams begin to beat the Bills down on the ground over the last month. Jonathan Taylor was the one who really kicked this off, of course, as the Colts ran the ball 46 times for 264 yards and four touchdowns. The Saints were a reprieve, but the Patriots ran for 222 yards on 46 carries, while the Bucs carried the ball 29 times for 137 yards. The Bills have allowed opposing teams to rush for a league-high 42 first downs over the last month, and their 28.8% first down rate ranks 25th.
Most disconcerting is how many big plays we've seen on the ground. The Bills have allowed three gains of 40-plus yards over the past month when no other team has given up more than one. They have granted four such gains over the full season when no other team has more than two.
During Sean McDermott's first four years as head coach, the Bills allowed teams to produce a 40-plus yard gain just 21 times (including passes). No other team was below 30, and the league average was 43. This season, the Bills have allowed eight 40-plus yard plays, including two long touchdowns on Sunday, most notably the game-winner to Breshad Perriman in overtime.
We're seeing sloppy mistakes from them on defense on some of those plays. Micah Hyde got caught over-pursuing on the long Harris touchdown. Nobody was in the gap Derrick Henry hit on his 72-yard touchdown run. The Bills tried to pass off crossing routes on the Perriman catch in overtime and accidentally left him free, with the speedy wideout able to outrun linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the end zone.
On the other hand, the Bills have stopped generating their own big plays on the defensive side of the ball. They created 15 takeaways during their 4-1 start. They generated five more in a win over Mike White and the Jets. Across the other seven games they've played during this stretch, though, they have only six takeaways.
Furthermore, the team's focus on adding pass-rushers over the past two years through free agency and in the draft is not paying off. The early returns were exciting, with the Bills posting a 6.8% sack rate over the first five games, which ranked seventh in the NFL. From the Titans game on, though, their sack rate has fallen nearly in half; their 3.5% takedown rate is fifth-worst over that timeframe. Buffalo has created pressure by blitzing 31.1% of the time, but only the Falcons have been worse at turning their pressure into sacks over the past two months.
On top of all that, the Bills are now dealing with injuries to their stars. The line is banged up. Tre'Davious White, the team's star cornerback, is done for the year with a torn ACL. Allen has been hit 156 times as a passer or runner this season, which is third-most in the league behind Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Allen helped bring back the Bills in the second half against Tampa, but the 25-year-old left the stadium on Sunday with a walking boot on his foot. While he said he wasn't concerned about the injury, it's tough to imagine that he's about to get healthier as the year goes along.
Still, I wouldn't give up hope on the Bills. Few teams have the sort of upside on both offense and defense that they have shown, even this season. They are likely to force more takeaways and turn more of their pressures into sacks over the rest of the season. They still have remaining home games against the Panthers, Falcons and Jets. While acknowledging that they lost to the Jaguars, it would be a shocker if the Bills lost any of those contests.
I haven't found any evidence that getting "hot" heading into the postseason is a real thing or has any predictive value, but Buffalo is certainly going to be more confident going into the playoffs after beating up on some bad football teams over the next month. The reduced degree of difficulty might be enough to help solve some of its problems.
The other remaining game is a road trip to play the Patriots, though, and that one will be trickier. Losing to New England would lock up the division for the Pats and send the Bills on the road throughout the postseason. They would be a scary matchup for anybody in the AFC, but winning three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl is much more difficult than taking two games at home. The season isn't lost for the Bills, but after ascending for two-plus years, it's fair to wonder whether they're still on the rise.
Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Chances to win the AFC North: 51.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 72.9%
It's tempting to just write the word "injuries" and finish this section, but that wouldn't be fair. You already know that the Ravens were dealing with a catastrophic season full of injuries even before the last two weeks, when they added their best defensive player (Marlon Humphrey) and best offensive player (Lamar Jackson) to the injury pile. Humphrey is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, while Jackson left Sunday's loss to the Browns with an ankle injury, the severity of which remains unclear.
For as unlucky a team as they've been in terms of keeping people healthy, the Ravens might feel blessed to be sitting here at 8-5 with four games left. They've lost close games over the past two weeks, but remember some of their wins? Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled away the game with the Chiefs entering field goal range late in Week 2. They needed a 66-yard Justin Tucker field goal to avoid losing to the Lions the following week. They scored twice in the final 10 minutes and hit a pair of two-pointers to tie up the Colts in Week 5 before winning in overtime. In Week 11, they blew a lead against the Bears with 1:48 to go, only for Tyler Huntley to drive them the length of the field for a game-winning score. This could easily be a lost season, just like the one we saw in 2015.
The good news for the Ravens is that they've probably done enough to make it into the postseason. Even if Jackson misses Sunday's game against the Packers, they would still be in good shape by winning two of their final three contests. The bigger question for me is whether there's a threat of them doing something if they get there. Can this team, given all its injuries, make any sort of serious postseason run?
It's difficult to imagine the Ravens doing anything of consequence without Jackson. Even with him in the lineup, though, they have not been an effective offense for several weeks. Since they returned from their Week 9 bye, Jackson's 36.0 QBR ranks 23rd in the NFL. He has posted a minus-6.7% CPOE and thrown eight interceptions against six touchdown passes. Only Tyrod Taylor and Joe Burrow have been sacked more frequently over that stretch. While the run includes a healthy dose of Huntley, the Ravens have averaged just 1.6 points per possession over the past month, which ranks 25th in the NFL.
Baltimore's solution, at least in the short-term, might be getting back to what helped it excel over the past few years and attempting to physically overwhelm opponents. As you might remember, it went out and invested in receiving weapons for Jackson this offseason. After making an attempt to sign away JuJu Smith-Schuster from the Steelers, general manager Eric DeCosta inked Sammy Watkins and then used a first-round pick on wideout Rashod Bateman. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews have been ever-present, and the Ravens have given steady playing time to 2020 third-rounder Devin Duvernay, who has been on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps this season.
The Ravens have used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wideouts) as their most frequent personnel package each of the past three seasons. Despite the additions, it hasn't been a successful grouping for Baltimore in 2021. By NFL Next Gen Stats, they either stayed on schedule or got ahead of schedule 53% of the time when they used 11 personnel in 2019. That success rate dropped to 48% in 2020, and even with the new blood at receiver, they are still at 48% out of 11 personnel this season.
They're actually using 11 personnel less frequently than they did in 2019 or 2020, owing to an expanded role for Patrick Ricard, and the fullback has generally justified his role. The Ravens have a 60% success rate when they've operated out of 21 personnel, up from 52% a year ago. They've also used 21 personnel more than twice as frequently as they did in 2020. Improving an offense isn't as simple as using a more successful personnel grouping all the time, as the context for how and why those groupings are used matters, but the Ravens might want to consider relying even more on that 21 personnel grouping in neutral situations.
The other player whom the Ravens need to play a meaningful role down the stretch is an underrated core component of their 2019 team. Nick Boyle suffered a serious knee injury last season and missed the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021. The elite blocking tight end made his season debut against the Bears in Week 11, but then only played nine snaps in Week 12 against the Browns while dealing with knee issues. The knee and an illness have kept Boyle out the past two games.
The Ravens desperately need Boyle -- or someone like Boyle -- to be the second tight end in their 22 personnel package. They were able to use two tight end sets on 43.7% of their snaps in 2019, that's down to 23.3% this season. When they've faced a first-and-10-plus situation in 2021, they have been much more successful operating out of 21 personnel (61%) and 11 personnel (54%) than they have out of 22 personnel, where their success rate is a mere 42%. It's clear that Boyle isn't healthy, and the Ravens can't magically make that so, but if he can play 30 snaps per game, that would be a huge boon for Greg Roman's offense.
Playing with bigger personnel groupings might not be the best long-term thing for a team that wants to develop its young receivers, but given where it stands in the playoff picture, John Harbaugh's team probably needs to focus on what's going to get their offense clicking now. The Ravens have gone from throwing the ball 43.2% on early downs in neutral game situations between 2019-20 to throwing 53.8% of the time in those same spots this season. I don't think the solution for the Bills is some version of offensive balance, but I do think that would help the Ravens get back on track.
As for their defense, it's more difficult to find a way back to their usual selves. It's one thing to have a world-class secondary covering for one weak spot in the lineup, but the Ravens on Sunday rolled out Anthony Averett, Brandon Stephens and Chris Westry around starting safety Chuck Clark. Averett and Westry each committed pass interference penalties on the opening drive. A blown coverage led to a long Donovan Peoples-Jones catch. Westry was beat on a double move by Peoples-Jones, while slot corner Tavon Young struggled against Jarvis Landry. There's no safe harbor on defense where they can rely on a corner to consistently win.
Could the Ravens adjust by playing more conservative coverage? It would be a major departure for a team built on creating pressure with their blitzes for seemingly decades now, but I'm not sure they have an alternative. They've blitzed on 35.3% of opposing dropbacks this season, the third-highest rate in the league. The problem is that they only create pressure 25% of the time when they send four or less, which is below the league average. They might not have the pass-rushers to create pressure without blitzing or the cornerbacks to play coverage when they do send extra defenders. It's an impossible situation to resolve, and with Humphrey and Marcus Peters both done for the year, it's not going to fix itself.
If anything, I wonder whether the Ravens might head in the opposite direction. If they can't hold up over the big picture drive after drive, is it better to get even more aggressive? Don Martindale's defense has forced just 11 takeaways in 13 games, a remarkably low total for a team that averaged more than 25 per 16-game season over the prior five campaigns. Some of that is subpar luck, as they have only recovered five of 12 opposing fumbles on defense this season, but they can't count on Peters to pick off a pass every month. Getting more aggressive with their blitzes might create one-on-one opportunities for opposing receivers, but it could also create the takeaways Harbaugh's defense is missing. Unless something changes, though, it doesn't feel like the Ravens have enough in the tank to do more than make a token visit to the postseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Chances to win the AFC North: 4.9%
Chances to make the playoffs: 10.3%
The Bills and Ravens are still comfortable favorites to make it into the postseason. The Steelers are not. After losing to the Vikings on Thursday, Mike Tomlin's team has just a 10.3% chance of making it to the postseason, per ESPN's FPI. They're one Mark Andrews bobble away from being winless in five straight games, which hasn't happened to Pittsburgh in more than a decade.
Like the Bills, what's going wrong for the Steelers starts at the line of scrimmage. During this 1-3-1 stretch, they have not been able to stop the run. Opposing teams have generated 12.2 EPA on the ground, the most of any team over the past five weeks. Their defensive line is getting blown off the ball; they've allowed an average of 3.6 yards before even contacting opposing rushers, the third-worst mark. They looked totally lost at sea for most of the game against the Vikings, with Minnesota generating the third most rushing EPA we've seen in a single game by any team all season.
When the Steelers have the ball, they're not getting much on the ground, either. They rank 25th in rushing EPA over this five-game stretch and 21st in rushing EPA per attempt. Najee Harris & Co. are only averaging 1.7 yards before being first contacted by a defender, which ranks 31st. Only Texans backs are getting hit quicker than Pittsburgh's ball carriers.
This comes despite the fact that teams are committing less to stopping the Steelers on the ground than virtually any other team. Over this five-game stretch, they have run into boxes with six defenders or fewer a league-high 67.3% of the time. They've had a numbers advantage in terms of blockers vs. box defenders on 85.1% of their carries, which is the second-highest rate in the league. There have been tumbleweeds running through the boxes they have faced, and they've been taking Harris down for two-yard gains.
ESPN's win rate models don't look favorably on the rebuilt Pittsburgh line, either. Over this five-game stretch, the Steelers rank 28th in run block win rate and 30th in pass block win rate. As Nate Tice pointed out, they repeatedly busted protections when the Vikings sent exotic pressures. They eventually got things settled and launched a furious late comeback, but don't think teams won't have noticed their issues dealing with pressure on tape.
What the Steelers have done, oddly enough, is hit a ton of big plays in the passing game. They have had nine passes generate at least 30 yards from scrimmage over the last five weeks, which is one behind Green Bay for the most in football. Three came against the Vikings, and they were all on deep pass attempts. While it's easy to watch Ben Roethlisberger and get lulled to sleep by an offense that can't run and seems to throw a steady stream of short passes, he still has enough left to throw deep. Those completions should theoretically dare teams to play two deep safeties and improve Pittsburgh's box count in the run game, but I think defenses are still happy to let Roethlisberger take his chances throwing deep down either sideline.
The Steelers are creating pass pressure, but the takeaway factory we saw them turn into after acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2019 hasn't shown up this season. The 2019 Steelers forced an unholy 38 takeaways in 15 games, and while that was never going to be sustainable, the 2020 Steelers still managed to force 27 takeaways, which ranked second.
This season, they have only managed to force 13 giveaways in 13 games, which is tied for 25th. The same team that forced three or more takeaways in seven different games in 2019 hasn't done that once this season. Pittsburgh's special teams have chipped in by blocking a punt for a touchdown against the Bills and giving the Steelers another short field with a block against the Chargers, but it's shocking to be nearly done with the 2021 season and see Fitzpatrick & Co. without a single defensive touchdown to their name.
Defensive takeaway rates can fluctuate dramatically from year-to-year, and if the Steelers want to suddenly improve and get hot heading into January, a sudden burst of turnovers is probably their best chance of getting there. With four games to go against the Titans, Chiefs, Browns and Ravens, they will basically be in a series of playoff games the rest of the way. They'll make the playoffs if they win all four of those games, miss the playoffs if they lose any two of them and be in the hunt at 3-1. They probably need to sweep the season-ending divisional games against the Browns and Ravens to have a meaningful shot, which means they need no worse than a split over the next two weeks against two of the three top seeds in the AFC.
Of course, the Steelers are different than the Bills and Ravens in another way. Allen is 25. Jackson is 24. If the Bills and Ravens don't live up to expectations this season, they're going to get a few more cracks with their star quarterback at the helm before needing to rebuild or retool. The Steelers have a 39-year-old quarterback, and ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported that Roethlisberger's told friends and teammates that this will be his final season with the organization. There's no time like the present for Pittsburgh. It's playoffs or bust for one of the league's most storied franchises, and unless they can get back into form quickly, the latter looks more likely.