Predicting NFL Week 15 upsets and fantasy football sleepers, plus league buzz: Aaron Rodgers' 2022 team, DPOY picks, more

Welcome to Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season, which features two Saturday games with playoff implications and a Sunday slate of exciting matchups. We asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the hottest topics of the week and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

They first look ahead to a big question mark on the 2022 quarterback market, making early projections on where Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be playing next season. They made their predictions for a tight Defensive Player of the Year race, which features a rookie for the first time in years.

Graziano and Fowler also discussed the situation in Jacksonville, where Urban Meyer is firmly on the hot seat. What could the Jaguars do to improve this offseason? And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves in the playoffs, they named their must-start sleepers. Graziano and Fowler get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week.

We'll start with Rodgers and Meyer and then hit upset picks of the week:

Jump to:
Improving JAX | DPOY
Upset picks | Underrated gems
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Get out your crystal ball: Where will Aaron Rodgers be playing in 2022?

Fowler: Denver. Extending the Packers marriage feels like a real possibility based on the way this season has gone -- good vibes, more synergy with the front office and more wins. But the money usually tells the story in the NFL, and Rodgers' contract restructure leaves a $46 million cap hit in 2022. I just don't see the Packers carrying that number for any player, though perhaps they could do a new deal if they really wanted. Denver has a ready-made roster, with a top-10 defense, good line play, good running backs and plenty of playmakers. Rodgers could follow Peyton Manning's late-career playbook.

Graziano: Denver's my pick, too, for all of the reasons you state there and because Green Bay will surely want him out of the NFC if it does (as I still expect) decide to move on. Other interesting potential AFC destinations, to me, include Cleveland (if it decides Baker Mayfield isn't good enough), Las Vegas (if a new administration decides to move on with a different quarterback from Derek Carr, which they might or might not) and Pittsburgh, who will need someone to replace the likely retiring Ben Roethlisberger. Any of those make sense to you if Denver doesn't get him?

Fowler: Those all make sense for different reasons. Rodgers seems to have a public affinity for Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, who appears partial to a veteran quarterback in the post-Roethlisberger era. The Raiders are such a wild card, as you mentioned, because we don't know what a new coach or general manager would want. And they have a good starter in Carr. But, if Rodgers' priorities are being on the West Coast and having control over the offense, perhaps Vegas would slide into contention.

The Browns are a fascinating option that probably hasn't been explored enough. From the Odell Beckham Jr. saga to countless injuries, Mayfield has been involved in so many subplots that have distracted from the season. Not all of that is his fault, of course. But he did, in a recent interview with NFL Network's Kurt Warner, allude to "internal things" being an issue for him. That leads to questions about offensive cohesion with coaches or teammates. You just wonder where the Mayfield-Browns marriage will stand at season's end, and if Cleveland, with a talented roster, will pursue Rodgers.

Graziano: The Mayfield situation is fascinating. Current general manager Andrew Berry was in the Browns' front office (though not in his current role) when the team drafted Mayfield at No. 1 overall. But then-GM John Dorsey really made that pick almost on his own from what I understand, and either way the current coaching staff wasn't there at the time. It's not unreasonable to think that two years with Mayfield has or will convince coach Kevin Stefanski he's not the guy who can take them where they need to go. And if they reach that conclusion, you're right, they need to keep all options on the table to maximize the talent elsewhere on the roster.

Let's fix the Jaguars: What's a move you'd make this offseason to get them back on track?

Graziano: I don't think anything is going to matter if they don't fire Urban Meyer, so obviously let's start there. Replace Meyer with ... well, literally any actual adult and they're better off than they are right now. As an example, let's say Leslie Frazier, a former Vikings head coach who's well-respected and well-liked and treats his people well. The question of course, because Frazier's background is defense, is who he brings with him as offensive coordinator to help shepherd Trevor Lawrence's development. Frazier could bring QBs coach Ken Dorsey with him from the Buffalo staff he's on now, but that's just me putting two and two together. You got any ideas for the right move to make for Lawrence? Because to me, Lawrence needs to be priority Nos. 1, 2 and 3.

Fowler: Yeah, Dan, you almost have to go with an offensive-minded coach who can maximize Lawrence's skill set with a strong supporting cast, quality run game and effective play-action. It's not just about Lawrence. He doesn't have complementary pieces a rookie should, from an underachieving offensive line to lackluster speed on the outside. All of this plays into the direction of the general manager, too, whether it's Trent Baalke staying put or a new voice.

As for a head coach, plenty of candidates would help with that. You've gotta think Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who quarterbacked four largely successful seasons with the Jaguars, would get a look. Cowboys OC Kellen Moore or Bills OC Brian Daboll could be on the radar. Someone who understands the intricacies of the NFL game -- mainly, how to deal with millionaire adults in the locker room -- would be helpful.

Graziano: Good call on Daboll. Not to cherry-pick Buffalo's staff, but that would be a good landing spot for Daboll if he's getting a head-coaching job this time around. You're not exactly starting from scratch with Lawrence, but you would have the chance to really take charge of his development as an NFL quarterback before it's too late. He'd be the main reason the job would be an appealing one, I think. As bad as his rookie year has gone, plenty of folks out there still want to bet on Lawrence's talent.

What's your top upset pick for Week 15?

Fowler: Seahawks (+5) over Rams. Records and momentum are irrelevant in the NFC West, and Seattle is playing better as it treads water at 5-8. Rashaad Penny looked explosive as the lead back against Houston. Maybe the offense found something. The Rams will be coming off an emotional Monday Night Football game with Arizona and will have six days to regroup.

Graziano: Washington (+5) over Eagles. There were some tempting choices here. I have no idea why the Patriots aren't favored in Indianapolis, for example. I like Cincinnati to beat Denver, and I honestly wouldn't be stunned to see either Baltimore or Pittsburgh pull off upsets at home. But man, Washington almost came back from the dead to beat Dallas on Sunday without its best receiver. I just think they're playing well right now and have shown more consistency (especially on defense) than the Eagles.

Fowler: Yeah, 6-7 Washington is still dangerous despite the Dallas loss, and it currently sits at the No. 7 spot in the NFC.

Who's going to win Defensive Player of the Year?

Graziano: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett. I get the hype around Cowboys rookie Micah Parsons, and all of it is deserved. But Garrett (15 sacks) is just so consistently great and dominant, and I think that's going to get noticed as the Browns make what I expect to be a playoff push. Garrett is likely to end the season with more sacks than Parsons (12 now), which surely matters in the voting for this award. whether you think it should or not. T.J. Watt (16 sacks) belongs in the conversation, and so does J.C. Jackson (seven interceptions) and a bunch of other dudes, including seemingly perennial winner Aaron Donald (10 sacks). But I think this is the year Garrett breaks through.

Fowler: I'll take Parsons off your hands. Garrett might be the planet's best athlete, but Parsons has been a revelation. He defines positionless football, rushing the passer as efficiently as he can cover in open space. Watching him strip-sack Taylor Heinicke, then drop deep into the middle of the field for a near-pick showcased his new-age range. Couple all of that with 12 sacks, 75 tackles and three forced fumbles and Parsons is poised to become the first rookie DPOY recipient since Lawrence Taylor.

Watt can't be ignored thanks to 16 sacks, four forced fumbles and four pass deflections in just 11 games, but Pittsburgh's defensive struggles might hurt his case. That's not his fault, of course. He has missed some time with various injuries and COVID-19 protocol. Also not his fault. Parsons has a slight edge as of now.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 13?

Fowler: Vikings wideout K.J. Osborn. My sense is that Adam Thielen (ankle) might be a long shot to return for Monday Night Football against the Bears. Osborn acquitted himself well as a Week 14 starter with 83 yards and a score. The Vikings have committed to going vertical this season, so any WR2 in that offense has a chance to break out.

Graziano: 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo doesn't get anyone excited, but he has been a reliable fantasy performer over the second half of the season, and the Falcons allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If you have Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or someone else whose Week 15 status is in question, you could do worse for a waiver-wire replacement than Jimmy G.

Fowler: Garoppolo has San Francisco looking like a playoff contender, and at least three of his weapons are viable fantasy plays -- George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk -- with Jauan Jennings as an intriguing wild card. He got five targets last week in Cincinnati and is growing in trust with Garoppolo. San Francisco is high on him.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• This year's front-office carousel likely won't produce six general manager openings like 2020's unprecedented cycle, but there's usually at least one surprise. Pittsburgh's situation with GM Kevin Colbert bears watching, as we noted last week. Colbert is finishing out another one-year, as-you-go deal through the 2022 draft. If Ben Roethlisberger retires, Colbert could go out with the player he helped draft in 2004. Colbert, one of the most accomplished general managers of the past decade, is 64 and hasn't done a long-term deal for a few years now. Perhaps the Steelers, when Colbert decides it's time to walk away, keep him in the fold in an advisory role while shepherding a new general manager, similar to what the Ravens did with Ozzie Newsome a few years ago.

• The Chargers are still holding out hope that star rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday morning, can play Thursday in the divisional matchup with the Chiefs. The chances are slim, but two consecutive negative tests could help him get back. ... On Kansas City's side, the Chiefs are bummed to see Josh Gordon enter COVID-19 protocol, because he just caught his first touchdown pass in Week 14, and I'm told from numerous people he's been "really good" in Kansas City's locker room in his return to the NFL from an indefinite suspension for violating the league's policies on substance abuse and performance-enhancing substances.. He has been above the fray and has patiently waited for his chances on offense.

• Baker Mayfield's non-displaced fracture in his left shoulder has healed on schedule, per source, and with the bye week allowing him to rest other injuries, he can hit the final month of the season feeling fresher. The torn labrum isn't going away, but he has been wearing a harness for the past few months. He's used to it. And with contract talks largely unexpected from now until the end of the season, this is a big month for the fourth-year QB. As for the "internal things" Mayfield referenced in the Kurt Warner interview, my understanding is that criticisms from, say, teammates' relatives (Beckham's dad) have a lot to do with that. Sure, Stefanski has called a few cautious second halves to secure tight wins, so Mayfield would like to be more aggressive at times -- he called the team's offensive attack late in Sunday's win over the Ravens "conservative" -- but this isn't as much QB-coach discord as it is quarterbacks liking to throw the ball more. Mayfield's 344 passing attempts are a league low among passers with more than 10 starts. That's tough for an aggressive passer with a lot to prove.

• Jets left tackle Mekhi Becton has been eyeing a Christmastime return, possibly Week 16 against the Jaguars, but New York could choose to rest him for the year coming off knee cleanout surgery. George Fant has played well on the left side, and with the Jets officially out of the playoffs, Becton could get a fresh start for 2022.

• Interesting quote from an NFL exec regarding the Buffalo Bills: "Josh [Allen] is a great talent. Hope they don't break him!" Allen is pacing for his third consecutive season with 100-plus rushing attempts, and he left Tampa Bay with a foot injury. Frequent runners Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have suffered similar fates this season, too. Something to watch with quarterbacks who often take off from the pocket.

Graziano

• The NFL on Monday announced COVID-19 booster requirements for Tier 1 and Tier 2 staff, but those requirements don't apply to players (who are all Tier 1) because anything involving players has to be negotiated with the NFL Players Association (NFLPA). If you're expecting the league and union to announce booster rules for players, don't hold your breath. A significant group of players was annoyed about the fact that the league created such strong incentives to get vaccinated initially, feeling they were strong-armed into getting the vaccine. But many of them did it under the (misguided) belief that they wouldn't need to engage in any further COVID-19 mitigation efforts. If the league goes to the players and says vaccinated players need to get boosters to retain their "fully vaccinated" status, it is likely to meet resistance. Remember, vaccinated players who have to miss games for COVID-19 reasons still get their contracted per-game roster bonuses. So a lot of players who are vaccine-shy or anti-vaccine could decide the booster isn't worth it if they're going to get their money whether they play or not.

• File this under the "Did You Know?" contract files: According to a person who has viewed the contract, Odell Beckham Jr.'s deal with the Rams is technically a five-year deal. Beckham got a $1.5 million salary (prorated down to about $750,000 because he signed halfway through the season) and a $500,000 signing bonus, but the deal includes four years beyond 2021 that automatically void 23 days before the start of the 2022 league year. So it's really just a salary-cap trick that allows the Rams to float $400,000 of the signing bonus into next year for accounting purposes (even though Beckham will get his money sooner). Why does the deal void 23 days before the start of the league year? The Rams do this with a lot of their contracts because that date falls before the opening of the franchise-tag window and allows them time to decide whether to use that tag on the player in question.