TEMPE, Ariz. -- Arizona Cardinals general manager Steve Keim was about to hit the practice field for his daily walk when a top lieutenant, Mike Disner, entered his office with an unexpected gift. Keim held up a tan-and-silver-rimmed frame with three words displayed: "Trust. Your. Gut."
Disner, the Cardinals' former director of football administration and now a Detroit Lions vice president, knew Keim became compromised when he forced or overanalyzed personnel decisions but could be unstoppable when he swung hard and followed instincts. That was the case when Keim -- who started as a Cardinals scout in 1999 and became GM in 2013 -- traded for an aging Carson Palmer in his first year on the job, a decision that led to a 29-9 regular-season record when Palmer started for coach Bruce Arians in their first three years together. Keim now displays the frame on a mantle in his office, a reminder he definitely needed in late 2018.
Keim knew then, in the short term, what he had to do: move on from coach Steve Wilks after a 3-13 season, a decision in conjunction with ownership and fueled by a desire to improve on offense. Firing a coach after one year was hard enough. What Keim did over the next four months would shake him at his core. He would not only hire Kliff Kingsbury, a fired college coach with a 35-40 record at Texas Tech, but also task him with making Kyler Murray, the smallest NFL quarterback since Doug Flutie, a viable starter after making a similar one-and-done decision at QB.
"Looking back at it now -- hiring a fired college head coach, taking 5-foot-10 quarterback with the first pick -- you should be in a straightjacket," Keim said. "But it's a challenging business. If you don't take the risk, I don't think you'll ever have the ultimate amount of success."
Risk, meet 10-2. In less than three years, the Cardinals have gone from worst to first entering their Monday Night Football clash with the Los Angeles Rams, who have long been a study for NFL risk tolerance. And it feels like the Cardinals are just arriving to the party with their own favors.
Rams coach Sean McVay already had concocted a Super Bowl cocktail the same year Keim and Arizona owner Michael Bidwill were resetting standards after a three-win season. Los Angeles' willingness to part with high draft picks to land elite players still shocks many around the league. And while the Rams entered the year as a perennial contender, Arizona still had to sell its fan base on Kingsbury, who went 13-18-1 through his first two years. The game's best division will leave the tentative behind, so Arizona embraced its paradox: turning up the heat in the desert.
We took a closer look at how Keim and the Cardinals took some massive swings in their roster construction, betting big on Murray and Kingsbury and adding key players through free agency and the draft -- and how it's all working to plan. Here's how Arizona built the top team in the NFL through an unconventional strategy.
A losing college coach
It's 7 a.m., and Kingsbury pops out of a meeting for about 23 minutes, until the next film session awaits. Before the sun rises is when Kingsbury gets comfortable, less flash and more football. He admits he has to "pull out" the command-the-room persona. Most of the time, that's not him.
"I'm pretty much [an introvert] outside of this building. Inside here, you can't be," said Kingsbury, sunk low in a small desk chair in the media relations office, hands clasped. "Certain days you want to go sit in your office and watch film, but you can't do that as a head coach."
What he can do aligns with the Cardinals' intuitions in making the unpopular but intriguing hire in 2019. The Cardinals wanted Wilks to work but felt they were reeling, among the league's worst in several statistical categories. They also believed the NFL pendulum was swinging toward offensive coaches, observing the Rams (McVay), Chiefs (Andy Reid) and many others winning with a skilled offensive mind at the helm.
Kingsbury had made quite an impression two years earlier, when Keim and Bidwill visited Texas Tech to take a closer look at the Red Raiders' Patrick Mahomes ahead of the draft. As they left Lubbock, Keim thought Kingsbury had strong people skills and might make a good NFL head coach one day. He told Bidwill, who agreed, and they made a mental note. (Arizona, picking 13th overall in the 2017 draft, was poised to select Mahomes if the Chiefs didn't trade into the 10th spot to take him.)
After moving on from Wilks, Arizona ultimately interviewed six candidates, including Adam Gase and Dan Campbell. But Kingsbury quickly established himself. The Cards liked everything about Kingsbury. His dad, Tim, was a decorated Marine, Purple Heart recipient and Texas high school football coach, breeding discipline and football pedigree. And from 2008 to '17, Kingsbury worked with five future NFL quarterbacks, including first-rounders Mahomes, Johnny Manziel and Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum (who took Minnesota to the NFC title game in 2017) and journeyman Davis Webb. Keim noted those quarterbacks ranged from 5-foot-10 to 6-foot-5, showcasing Kingsbury's ability to maximize a player's skill set. Plus, Kingsbury had been losing to Big 12 powerhouse teams, but he was losing 55-45 or 60-48 while playing with mostly two- to three-star recruits. The man could coach offense.
The team's strategy was clear: Pair an innovative playcaller with an experienced staff and see what happens. And when the playcaller is also the head coach, he won't get recruited to be a head coach elsewhere like a hot offensive coordinator would. He can build with the quarterback.
"If you just sort of look at those headlines, that he was a fired college coach, you miss the really good stuff," Bidwill said. "You have to peel the onion. ... He came in right away and the locker room immediately started to connect with him. He keeps it simple and doing things at a high level and very positive."
After the Texas Tech firing, Kingsbury was slated to coordinate USC's offense but moved off that job after a month to take Arizona's offer. He saw the possibilities as endless at the pro level. Keenum having success with Minnesota inspired him, reminding what can happen when a team tailors an offense around a passer's strengths. Plus, he wanted another try at the pros.
"Just getting in the NFL, I didn't take advantage of the opportunities like I should have, whether working as hard as I should have, playing as well as I should have," said Kingsbury, a sixth-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2003 who threw two career passes before fizzling out. "When that goes away, you have to start at the bottom. ... That means being a quality control in Houston living on Dana Holgorsen's couch. So I said, 'Hey, I'm going to work really hard and see where this goes.' I said I wouldn't make the same mistakes."
And so Keim and Bidwill bet big on Kingsbury, who knows that wasn't easy for the franchise.
"He basically got mobbed for the decision to hire me," Kingsbury said. "Kyler and I were saying, 'All right, we're going to run this college offense with a 5-10 quarterback.' There's definitely an us-against-the-world mentality that comes from that."
A 5-foot-10 quarterback
Keim swears he didn't originally want to select Murray at No. 1 overall, and Kingsbury took the head-coaching job assuming Josh Rosen was the guy. Rosen had been a top-10 pick the prior year, but he struggled in his rookie season, leading the Cardinals to a 3-13 record and throwing 21 interceptions. And though Kingsbury felt strongly about Oklahoma's Murray -- he told reporters in October 2018, while still at Tech, that he'd "take him with the first pick in the draft if I could" -- he never pressed Keim on Murray's potential.
"[Kingsbury] has always felt that way about my game," Murray said. "Ever since high school, he came and visited me, always hit me up on Twitter, recruiting me, stuff like that. I always knew how he felt about my game. Even when I was at Oklahoma and he was at Tech watching me, talking to my pops, stuff like that. He definitely did a lot when he said that."
Then one morning Keim threw on the tape, promising he'd watch Murray with a "BPA" -- best player available -- mindset. In OU's playoff game with Alabama, Murray dropped back, moved to his right, then darted back up the middle and leapt off one foot for a 49-yard touchdown pass, which was thrown 55 yards on a rope.
"I'm like, 'Holy f---, I've never seen anything like this,'" Keim recalled. "Threw it like he's a shortstop off one foot. I got a hot feeling because I'm like, 'I'm going to have to take this kid No. 1.'"
Pre-draft, Kingsbury and Keim had dinner with pass-rusher Nick Bosa, another top prospect in the class, and agreed they could totally take this guy and be satisfied. But Keim couldn't shake Murray's tape. Kingsbury admitted to trepidation due to Murray's stature, but he considers Murray a player "you've got to see with your own eyes." And his eyes told him he's the most dynamic player he'd ever seen. With Murray and talent around him, the Cardinals could have a chance. Plus, Bidwill had seen Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who is 5-foot-11, up close for much of the past decade. Murray's stature didn't scare him. He drafted Murray with the top pick, effectively admitting the Rosen mistake but opening a new door for the Arizona offense.
Murray has rewarded that faith with an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award in Year 1, 819 rushing yards in Year 2 and polished passing in Year 3, including a 65.6 QBR (No. 4 league-wide) and a league-leading 72.7% completion percentage. He was atop the MVP race to begin this season before an ankle injury cost him three games.
No one denied Murray's ability to throw from any platform or zoom up the open field for easy yards. But fair or not, pre-draft whispers persisted that Murray could be closed off. Over time, Murray assuaged any perceived concern. Keim recalls Murray throwing a football with Keim's kids in the Cardinals' cafeteria for about 15 minutes during a team visit, laughing about video games and football. He was relatable in his own way -- not loud but a clever personality refined through competition.
Each Friday after practice, Cardinals quarterbacks throw fade balls into a net about 20 yards away. Backup Colt McCoy calls this "as competitive as anything we do." And Murray doesn't take losing well.
"It's like going to play poker with all your boys, and he keeps buying himself in until he wins," McCoy said.
Kingsbury knows he can give Murray "s--- every now and then," creating constructive tension off which the two thrive, like a director giving his actor space to create in the moment.
"We've been in this foxhole together knowing everybody's doubting us and knowing that everybody wants us to fail," Kingsbury said. "That's been a situation that's really bonded us.'
A different kind of culture
The Cardinals had the quarterback-coach combo but needed to set a culture.
Kingsbury is friendly with Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel, but this is hardly Patriots West. Kingsbury's rules are plainly stated: Be on time, be a professional and do your best every day. His philosophies are built on adaptability and autonomy. The former is largely up to him. The latter is up to everyone, which is good news for assistant coaches who don't want to be micromanaged.
"I believe in autonomy," Kingsbury said. "I want to hire really good people who want to be head coaches and want to do it at a high level and don't need somebody with a thumb on them to be here at such a time, stay this late, do it this way. And I think that's why our culture here, as far as staff goes, has been really good."
That applies for Vance Joseph, the former Broncos head coach who runs the defense while serving as a sounding board for Kingsbury. Arizona's defense ranks top five in yards and points allowed under Joseph, who should get NFL head-coaching consideration this cycle. Veteran NFL cornerback Prince Amukamara was with Arizona last season and described Kingsbury's involvement with the defense as limited but timely. Kingsbury might tell the cornerbacks during the week about, say, a tendency of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce he picked up on tape and how to attempt to jam him at the line.
Kingsbury also isn't afraid to admit mistakes and move on from them. Early in his first year, Kingsbury came out hot with his college offense -- "real spread out, 10 personnel every snap, looked like the Mike Leach Air Raid," he said -- but quickly realized NFL pass rushes are too good. So he got with his staff to craft a more balanced attack, and now that soft Air Raid ranks tied for second in rushing touchdowns (19) and sixth in rushing attempts (372).
"One of his best traits is humility -- to be able to say I didn't do a good enough job," Keim said. "Kliff's constantly like that. Zero ego."
Kingsbury asks his players to hold one another to a higher standard, with veterans making sure nothing slides. And in turn they get certain freedoms.
"I want to create an environment they feel they can be themselves," Kingsbury said. "I want them to dress the way they want to dress, to do what they do. I don't ever want them walking on eggshells."
The Cardinals' vets get ample rest, with receiver DeAndre Hopkins following an Allen Iverson-inspired practice schedule. If players are hurt, as Murray and Hopkins were over the previous month, they are sitting with limited hesitation. But playing for Kingsbury means you're constantly on the practice field, even if you're not practicing.
"I've done more walk-throughs and on-field instruction here than I have in every other place I've been," said McCoy, a 12-year vet who went 2-1 as the starter in place of Murray, completing 68 of 90 passes for 684 yards and three touchdowns. "He likes for us to see it, understand, it, walk through it, walk through it some more, walk through it again."
Calculated risks in free agency
The Cardinals needed more toughness and leadership after a late-2020 collapse, losing five of their last seven games to finish 8-8. Kingsbury said the team probably got "a little lax" with penalties and lacked an overall edge. And when Houston released J.J. Watt in February, Keim had tried everything to land the edge rusher. He got friends Frank Caliendo and Blake Shelton to make recruiting calls, and former Texans teammate Hopkins got involved. The Cardinals sold Watt on an ascending team with a stable power structure, prime golf weather and a strong locker room.
Stressed after dozens of calls, Keim took his kids to dinner on a Sunday night. One of Watt's agents, R.J. Gonser, called with the news that one change to the contract structure would get a deal with Arizona to the finish line. Gonser told Keim that Watt appreciated the Cardinals not leaking their involvement to the media, a detail that helped seal it. Keim now had permission to tell his owner but no one else until Watt released the news on his social media the next day, March 1, wearing a Cardinals shirt with the caption, "source: me."
"'Are you f---ing kidding me? We just signed J.J. Watt,'" Keim told himself before giving Watt a two-year, $28 million deal. "I almost broke down in tears. Because it was exhausting in trying, and the kid finally says yes."
It meant more than signing a marquee player. It meant progress and a plan coming together. The Cardinals prioritized a handful of established veterans who could improve the leadership quotient and still produce on the field for at least two years. The 2020 trade for Hopkins -- sending Houston a second-rounder and running back David Johnson for one of the game's premier receivers -- was an easy call. So was Watt, despite extensive injury history. But then Arizona doubled down on calculated risks.
Rumors persisted during the offseason that the Raiders' Rodney Hudson, who is widely considered one of the game's best centers and turned 32 in July, wanted out. In March, the Cardinals gave Las Vegas a third-round pick for Hudson and a future seventh-rounder. Arizona then gave him a new three-year, $30 million deal.
Wide receiver A.J. Green was coming off his worst season as a pro, with 47 catches for 523 yards in Cincinnati. He turned 33 in July and has a history of foot issues. Arizona gave him a one-year, $6 million deal in free agency, anyway, in part because Cardinals research indicated that nearly one-third of his targets were uncatchable. And through 12 games, Green has surpassed last year's yardage total with 552.
Running back James Conner has parlayed a one-year, $1.75 million deal into a 14-touchdown season with Arizona. And while giving up a fifth-round pick for tight end Zach Ertz at the deadline was partly out of necessity, because Maxx Williams tore an ACL, Ertz fits the Cardinals' leadership-production metric. He has 31 catches for 279 yards and three touchdowns in six games with the franchise.
"[Keim has] done a tremendous job of locating guys late in their careers with something left to prove that come out here, like the nice weather, practicing on grass -- all of that can kind of be rejuvenating," Kingsbury said. "Guys that have done it at a high level, who are first class in all regards. That was a positive for our locker room."
Keim said, "We had to set a model in place of what we wanted, a common understanding in that building of what they are looking for. And there's a degree of patience from time to time that sometimes places don't exert."
Managing draft pick cost
When talking about the functionality of the Cardinals, Keim refers to a "checks and balances system" with the Bidwill, Kingsbury and himself accounting for one another's viewpoints. And Bidwill felt comfortable making big moves this offseason in part because of healthy budgeting. Arizona has $6 million in 2021 cap space after the aggressive moves, with around $37 million slotted for 2022.
"Because Steve had managed the cap so well in the past, we weren't put in the kind of pinch some of the other teams were," Bidwill said. "We knew there would be more free agents out on the street because teams that didn't manage the cap well were needing to make tough cap cuts. That gave us the ability to go out and take advantage of that."
Having a franchise quarterback still on a rookie deal is a boon for Arizona, which has Murray under contract for 2022, plus the fifth-year option in 2023. (The Cardinals could extend him before then.)
"This is a great window for us," Bidwill said. "It becomes a little harder when that window is done. You put a lot of emphasis on the fact that the quarterback has to be a great young quarterback and leader and performer for you."
The Cardinals often weigh aggressiveness with draft-pick conservation, hoping for a sweet spot. After all the trades, Arizona still has picks in the first, second, third, sixth and seventh rounds in April. Save the Hopkins deal, the Cardinals want to avoid moving off Day 1 or early Day 2 picks whenever possible. High-caliber defensive draft picks like safety Budda Baker and linebacker Isaiah Simmons give Joseph plenty of sideline-to-sideline range with which to work, while receivers Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore provide Murray with dynamic targets.
No, Arizona hasn't hit on every pick. Rosen didn't work, and he is now an NFL journeyman on his fifth NFL team. Second-round receiver Andy Isabella is a backup. But NFL scouts say Arizona's roster talent is overwhelming. And of the nine players drafted by the Cardinals in the first or second round over the past five drafts who are still on the roster, seven of them are currently starting.
The Rams, Monday night's opponent, follow an inverse model of sorts, banking on compensatory picks and mid- to late-round hits to balance the roster built around star players acquired with high picks. They haven't selected in the first round since 2016 and won't again until 2024 thanks to a series of trades for veterans such as Jalen Ramsey and Matthew Stafford. And they doubled down this fall by acquiring Von Miller for multiple Day 2 picks and signing Odell Beckham Jr. Bidwill says the Rams are right to believe in those stars, but added, "Those are pretty big decisions to give up those picks."
Keim, meanwhile, admires the Rams' approach.
"I love the aggressiveness," he said. "Each organization is in a case-by-case situation. What the current roster looks like, the contract situations -- a lot of things play into it. I think they've done a good job. Obviously, the whole thought process of, 'We're going to build this thing the right way,' that's subjective. You can't use the excuse to fans anymore. You have to get this turned around and turned around quick."
The winner Monday night will create momentum in an NFC West division that can't be survived without it. If it's the Cardinals, they have a playoff berth locked up for the first time since 2015. After all the trade calls, all the internal debate about short quarterbacks and inexperienced coaches and all the trusting of guts, Arizona expects these new results to live. And it expects old perceptions of these decisions to die.
"I would like to think it's viewed a little differently now," Keim said.