KANSAS CITY -- If you were looking for drama on this particular NFL Sunday, Arrowhead Stadium was the wrong place. Moments after the visiting Raiders held their pregame huddle on the Chiefs' midfield logo, Josh Jacobs fumbled their first play from scrimmage and the Chiefs ran it back for a touchdown.
Things did not get better from there for the Raiders, who got blown out 48-9. It was the second time in five weeks the Chiefs blew out the Raiders, and this one delivered Kansas City's sixth victory in a row -- a victory that tied it atop the AFC standings with the Patriots and the Titans at 9-4.
The Chiefs' defense has been the story of its season. This was the third game in a row in which it allowed only nine points, and it has allowed just 65 points total during the Chiefs' win streak. That's their lowest six-game total of points allowed since before the AFL-NFL merger. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has his side of the ball playing at a high level, while Patrick Mahomes and the offense keep working to find their old, dominant form. Sunday, the Chiefs put it together on both sides of the ball, and they looked like ... well, the Chiefs.
So let's start the Week 14 overreactions right there, shall we?
The Chiefs' offense is back!
Again, 48 points (even if one of the touchdowns came on defense) is nothing to sneeze at. Mahomes was a tidy 20-for-24 for 258 yards and two touchdown passes. Three different Chiefs running backs scored, including Clyde Edwards-Helaire twice. Perhaps most importantly, they didn't turn the ball over. They've turned it over only six times, total, in their six-game winning streak. In their first seven games of the year, they turned it over 17 times.
The offense has definitely improved in key areas as the season has gone along. Kansas City's coaches have been telling the offensive players that they needed to cut down on penalties and turnovers before the old explosiveness could return, and they seem to have gotten the message.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Because let's see it against someone besides the Raiders! Look, let's be absolutely clear here: I definitely believe the Chiefs are capable of looking like their old selves again before this is all over. For that reason, and because of the way they're playing defense, I consider them the most dangerous team in the AFC playoff race. I will not be accused of doubting them, because I don't.
But the fact of the matter is that 89 of the 166 points they've scored in their past seven games have come in the two games against the Raiders. That's 53.6% of all the points the Chiefs have scored over the past two months. They do not play the Raiders again unless it's in the playoffs (and the Raiders have a lot of work to do to get there).
If Kansas City wants us to believe it's really back back, let's see it go out and hang 48 on the Chargers in Los Angeles this Thursday night. Until then, let's hold off on assuming everything is going to be as it was. Believe if you want. I do. But don't assume.
Derek Carr is playing his final month as the Raiders' quarterback
Carr is doing what he can to keep the Raiders in the playoff race during a year in which incomprehensible stuff has gone wrong. He's a fine NFL quarterback having a strong season. But the 6-7 Raiders -- who have lost five of their past six games -- are a month away from an offseason rife with uncertainty. They're likely to be in a search for a new coach and general manager come January, which tends to mean rebuild time.
Carr has just one year left on his contract at a non-guaranteed $19.9 million. He's a bargain at that price, but if the team is going to bring him back, it probably has to give him an extension. It's no slight against Carr to wonder if a new regime might decide it would rather start over with a different quarterback. There is no question about the future of the Raiders' roster that should be considered out of bounds at this point.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Could team owner Mark Davis decide to extend Carr before the end of this season and commit to him as the guy going forward? Sure. But you do that only if you're sure the new coach believes in him. And unless Davis knows who his next coach is going to be, I don't see how he can be sure of that.
This offseason quarterback market is going to be completely bonkers, with the likes of Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson potentially available in trades. Not every team that needs a veteran QB is going to get one of those guys, and Carr certainly would have some appeal as a second choice in such cases. Basically, the reason this isn't an overreaction is because you have to put everything on the table for the Raiders at this point, and there would surely be a market for Carr if they decided to move on from him.
He has been very good for the Raiders this season and for most of his career. But they also probably know what the ceiling is for them with him, and it's not out of the question a new coach and GM would decide to pursue someone with more upside.
Micah Parsons will win Defensive Player of the Year
The Cowboys' first-round linebacker should have Defensive Rookie of the Year pretty well locked up. Two more sacks in Sunday's 27-20 victory over Washington give him 12 for the season, along with three forced fumbles. The rookie sack record is 14.5, by Tennessee's Jevon Kearse in 1999. Parsons has four games left to try to break it.
And man ... he's not even really supposed to be an edge pass rusher. He's a do-it-all linebacker, and we do mean all. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has wisely designed his defense with Parsons as its focal point, as the rookie out of Penn State has been whatever the Cowboys have needed him to be depending on the week and their defensive personnel injury issues.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The No. 12 overall pick definitely has plenty of competition. Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt (16 sacks) and Cleveland's Myles Garrett (15 sacks) are candidates. J.C. Jackson has been an interception machine in New England (seven), and Parson's teammate Trevon Diggs has been one for Dallas (nine).
This is only a partial list of candidates, but Parsons deserves to be on it. With the Giants on the schedule next week and Washington again the week after that, he has a chance to rack up some stats and bolster his case in the stretch run.
The Bills will miss the playoffs
Full disclosure: We came up with this one when the Bills were down 24-3 at the half in Tampa, so we were totally prepared to tear it up and go with a different one if their incredible comeback to force overtime had paid off. But it didn't, because Tom Brady, and so the Bills are now 7-6 with four games to play. They've lost three of their past four games, all to plausible playoff teams, and while they still occupy the No. 7 spot in the AFC field, this was not a team we expected to be trying to scrap its way into the postseason.
Buffalo was a preseason favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and things have gone very wrong. It now trails the Patriots by two games in the AFC East standings, which makes its Dec. 26 game in Foxborough pretty much a must-win if it is to have any hope of hosting a playoff game.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Yes, there is a strong chance the Bills can win three of their last four games, if not all four. Their non-Patriot opponents include Carolina, Atlanta and the Jets. All games they should win. And while they didn't come out on top Sunday, the way they played in the fourth quarter should give them some confidence that the ability to be a playoff team lives within them.
But the AFC wild-card race is a sloppy jumble -- four other teams also have seven wins -- and the fact that the Bills' playoff chances reside there instead of in the AFC East race is not a good thing for them. Even one slip-up against one of the non-contenders on their schedule could mean a bitterly early January.
So will the Bengals
The other super exciting near-miss of the late-window games Sunday saw the Bengals erase a 20-6 fourth-quarter deficit and actually take a 3-point lead in overtime before Jimmy Garoppolo's winning touchdown pass broke their hearts.
The result left both San Francisco and Cincinnati at 7-6 for the season, though the Niners are a third-place team 2½ games out of first, while the Bengals are tied for second and only a game behind the injury-ravaged, first-place Ravens.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. The reason this is an overreaction and Buffalo's wasn't is because the division title is still very much a viable playoff path for Cincinnati and Joe Burrow. The Bengals are, as mentioned, only a game behind a first-place Ravens team that's almost out of players and lost 41-17 the first time they played the Bengals this season. Cincinnati's 3-1 division record is the best of any AFC North team, and it still has games left against the Ravens and Browns, its direct competition.
Tough as their past couple of losses have been, the Bengals continue to control their own destiny and have shown an ability to beat the team in front of them. Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson to injury Sunday, and if he has to miss more time, the Ravens are almost surely done. (All due respect to what they've been able to do in spite of their injury situation all year.)
Cincinnati does have a couple of tough non-division games left against the Broncos and Chiefs, but if it can win one of those and beat the Ravens and Browns, it should be fine. If you're a Bengals fan and you honestly thought this would be easy ... well, then, you haven't been a Bengals fan for very long.