The NFC is a beautiful, chaotic mess. The conference's top tier is about as orderly as it comes: five teams with at least eight wins, including the four division leaders and the 8-4 Rams, who have a clear path to finishing no lower than fifth in the conference. Each of those five teams will enter Week 14 with at least a 95% chance of making it to the postseason, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
The second tier might as well be thrown into a spin cycle if you want to figure out how things will shake out by Week 18. Seven teams finished the weekend with either five or six wins. Four are 5-7. Two are 6-6. One is 6-7. You could even expand this to include the 4-8 Bears, Giants and Seahawks, each of whom would be favorites to make the postseason if they won out. Realistically, though, we have seven NFC teams competing for two playoff berths. There are seven head-to-head games between these teams coming over the next five weeks. Pretty fun!
Let's run through those seven teams and take a look at their chances of being one of the two teams left standing by the time we get to the postseason. Remember that the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers were 7-5 at this time last season and made it to the playoffs as a wild-card team; all it takes is one of these teams getting hot to dramatically influence the playoffs.
I'll start with the teams that have the longest odds of making it through Week 18, per FPI, and work toward the ones that have the best shot of making it out of this pressure cooker. Nine wins is the target for each of these teams, but which can actually get there?
Jump to a team:
Atlanta | Carolina
Minnesota | New Orleans
Philadelphia | San Francisco
Washington
7. Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 3.2%
Despite coming into Week 13 as the second-worst team in the league by DVOA and losing to the Buccaneers by 13 points, the Falcons still have a plausible path to the postseason. It's difficult to imagine the wildly frustrating Falcons getting hot, but if they could somehow piece together a few wins as the season finishes up, they're still in the thick of the playoff race. They went 4-2 during the best part of their season; they need to get back at that level to have any hope of sneaking into the playoffs.
During that run between Week 3 and Week 9, the Falcons were fueled by their passing game. Matt Ryan ranked third in Total QBR over that span, completing nearly 70% of his passes and throwing 13 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. Arthur Smith's offense converted 48.1% of its third downs, which ranked fourth in the league, and scored touchdowns on two-thirds of its trips inside the red zone. The Atlanta offense ranked seventh in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play. There were signs that the wonders Smith worked in Tennessee were beginning to pop up in Atlanta.
Since then, the Falcons rank 31st in offensive EPA per play. Ryan's 22.6 QBR ranks 31st out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks. The team has thrown one touchdown pass against eight picks over that time frame, including five from Ryan and three more from his backups. The Falcons have been outscored by 71 points in that span, with a seven-point victory over the lowly Jaguars as their only saving grace over the past month. The offense scored an early touchdown on Sunday and had a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line against the Bucs in the second quarter ... and scored a total of three points over the rest of the game. It's difficult to have any confidence that they will have any sustained success on offense from drive to drive, let alone week to week.
With receiver Calvin Ridley away from the team indefinitely, the Falcons simply have to get Kyle Pitts back involved with the offense. The rookie pass-catcher averaged 2.4 yards per route run during that hot stretch, which ranked 13th in the league over that time frame for qualifying players. Over the past month, he is down to 1.4 yards per route run, which ranks 70th. He has one deep catch in the past four games.
The Falcons should really be turning Pitts into a de-facto wide receiver at this point, given what he has to do for their passing game. He takes 28% of his snaps as an inline tight end, and when he has run routes tight to the formation, he has averaged just 0.9 yards per route run. Contrast that to what he does split out, where he lines up 30% of the time. Pitts has averaged 3.0 yards per route run when split out as a wide receiver. It's important for him to develop as an inline tight end, but the team could certainly stand to get him out wide more frequently.
One other factor Smith has surprisingly gotten away from in his first season as head coach is play-action. His offense in Tennessee thrived off play-action, but the Falcons aren't even running it often this season. Over the past month, the league has run play-action about 25% of the time. The Falcons have used a play fake on 21.7% of their dropbacks over that stretch. Play-action isn't going to solve their problems single-handedly, but Ryan has been better as a play-action thrower and tossed all of his picks without a play fake. They aren't built to dominate off play-action in the way that Smith's Titans team once was, but I'm not sure they have a realistic alternative.
Biggest game remaining: Week 14 at San Francisco. Three of Atlanta's seven remaining games come against teams on this list, including road games against the Panthers and 49ers before a home game against the rival Saints in Week 18. The Falcons need to sweep all three of those games and hold serve against the 1-10-1 Lions on Boxing Day, given that their other game is a road trip to Buffalo. If they do win those four games, the Upshot gives the Falcons an 81% chance of claiming a wild-card berth.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 3.4%
The Panthers weren't supposed to be making any news during their Week 13 bye, but in what can only be characterized as a Sunday afternoon news dump, they fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The former LSU assistant coach will be replaced in that role by running backs coach Jeff Nixon, who called plays under Panthers coach Matt Rhule when the two were at Baylor.
Given how the Panthers have played on offense, it's tough to argue with the idea of making a change. After ranking 17th in offensive DVOA a year ago, they rank 29th in the same category this season. Garbage time has helped boost up their raw numbers at times, but by win probability added, the Carolina offense ranks 29th in the NFL. After their 3-0 start to the season, the only offense that has been less helpful in terms of winning games than Brady's attack has been the Texans'. That's not a winning formula for any coordinator to keep his job.
Even going back to Brady's hire, the fit between coordinator and head coach was a bit curious. Rhule brought along key pieces of his Baylor staff but made a splashy hire at coordinator in adding Brady, who had just finished leading LSU's offense to one of the most spectacular seasons in college football history. I couldn't help but think of the wide-open spread attack Brady ran at LSU when I read what ESPN Panthers reporter David Newton mentioned about the sudden decision:
Matt Rhule wanted the Panthers to rush 30-33 times a game. They had only 16 rushes in their last game before the bye. Now former OC Joe Brady just never found the right balance.
— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) December 5, 2021
I have no doubt that Rhule wanted the Panthers to run the ball more, of course, but they lost that game 33-10. Offenses that run the ball at least 30 times do often win football games, but they're running because they're winning, not winning because they're running. The Panthers ran the ball 17 times for 50 yards and four first downs in that loss to the Dolphins. Those runs came with an average of 7.3 defenders in the box at the snap, amounting to the seventh-heaviest average box faced by any offense in Week 12. It's hard to argue that running the ball more would have solved Carolina's problems during the Miami loss.
Of course, the personnel also matters. Brady was hired after a season in which he had Joe Burrow handing the ball to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and throwing to Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Over his two years in Carolina, while Brady had DJ Moore and Robby Anderson at receiver, his other offensive players were either injured or underwhelming. Christian McCaffrey completed just seven games over two seasons. Just one of the five starting linemen the Panthers began the season with in Week 1 were healthy and playing the same spot in the lineup by Week 12.
Most importantly, they haven't had great answers at quarterback. Their starter last Sunday was Cam Newton, who was unsigned as recently as November. They began the season with Sam Darnold before turning things over to XFL product P.J. Walker. The best quarterback Brady has had in Carolina is 2020 starter Teddy Bridgewater, and while the former Vikings starter questioned Brady's practice choices after leaving the organization, it's clear that the Panthers haven't been blessed with a clear solution at quarterback.
Brady's job is to make those quarterbacks better, and I'm sure the organization consulted his opinion on the guys they acquired, but the now-deposed offensive coordinator wasn't the one signing Bridgewater and Newton or trading for Darnold. The Panthers have invested tens of millions of dollars and two valuable picks on finding a quarterback and don't appear any closer to a solution. They're down second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2022 and owe Darnold $18.6 million in guaranteed money next season. Coordinators don't typically get a third season after two subpar years, and I wonder whether Brady was a football culture fit for the offense Rhule envisions in Carolina. It also seems fair to wonder whether Brady's firing really addresses what the Panthers have gotten wrong over Rhule's first two years at the helm.
Biggest game remaining: Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay. Four of Carolina's five remaining games come against the NFC South. The Panthers have the toughest remaining schedule in football, which includes a trip to Buffalo and a home-and-home against the Buccaneers. They need to upset the Bucs at home in Week 15 and then hope that Tampa rests its starters in Week 17.
5. New Orleans Saints (5-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 22.1%
There's a big leap in playoff odds from No. 6 to No. 5, but the reeling Saints have lost five straight while being decimated by injuries. During Thursday's loss to the Cowboys, Sean Payton's team was down its top quarterback, running back, wide receiver and top two offensive tackles.
No team is going to realistically be able to survive losing Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Ryan Ramczyk for long, but owing to their cap woes, the Saints simply don't have the depth they enjoyed in years past at those positions. Replacement-level players such as Mark Ingram, Ty Montgomery and Jordan Mills are being forced to play key roles. The Saints are already on their third starting quarterback of the season, and Taysom Hill spent most of the Cowboys game playing through a finger injury. Things aren't great in New Orleans.
Hill threw four interceptions on Thursday, and while I think it's clear that the 31-year-old offensive player is tough, his next start against the Jets might tell us whether Payton can keep him as the starter for the remainder of the season. Ideally, given their limitations on offense, the Saints would probably be best as a run-first offense running through Hill, especially once they get Kamara, Ramczyk and Terron Armstead back from injury. Their best shot of competing with this roster construction is protecting the football on offense and winning games with their defense, but Hill is already battling that finger injury after dealing with a foot issue and a concussion earlier this season.
Hill lost the training camp quarterback competition to Jameis Winston -- and he hasn't been a factor even when healthy this season -- but he's not going anywhere. The Saints re-signed him in November, and while much of that deal is built around incentives, he is essentially guaranteed $20 million between 2022 and 2023. The team isn't in as dire of a cap situation over the next two years as it was heading into 2021, but it also isn't in a position to be spending $10 million per year on a curiosity, either.
For Payton, a run to the playoffs over the final five games of the season is priority No. 1. Priority No. 2 might be figuring out what to do with Hill. The head coach is clearly convinced that Hill can be a difference-maker for the New Orleans offense, but it's tough to understand how and why Payton feels that way. After starting four games in 2020, Hill wasn't good enough to be the Saints' full-time quarterback to begin the season. He was averaging a little over 22 scrimmage yards per game in 2021 before the loss to the Cowboys, when he was being used as a runner and receiver.
If Hill's not a quarterback, he has never played at the sort of level that would justify a contract with an average annual value of eight figures. He has also struggled to play quarterback at a satisfactory level, and the finger injury won't help matters. It seem like Payton keeps re-signing Hill and hinting that there's some bigger plan afoot with one of the league's most unique players. From the outside, we're still waiting for that plan to reveal itself.
As it is, the Saints are being kept afloat by their performance in the red zone. They've been the second-best team in red zone conversion rate on offense (71.1%) and defense (47.2%). If they can get some of their Pro Bowlers back for the final month of the season and keep that up, they have a shot at the postseason. Sunday's game against the Jets should break their losing streak, but what happens after that depends on Hill.
Biggest game remaining: Week 15 at Buccaneers. After the road game against the Jets this week, the Saints probably have to pull an upset over the likely divisional champs in the NFC South. Winning two straight would get Hill & Co. to 7-7 with home games against the Dolphins and Panthers and a Week 18 trip to face the Falcons. Taking two out of those three games would get them to 9-8, and that should probably be enough for a fifth consecutive trip to the playoffs. I don't think the Falcons will be in playoff contention at that point, but getting a chance to play spoiler against the Saints at home is something Atlanta fans would cherish for years.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 25.4%
Well, you saw what happened on Sunday. A victory over the previously winless Lions would have pushed Mike Zimmer's team back to .500 and set them up as one of the favorites to claim the 6- or 7-seed in the NFC. After sleepwalking through most of the first three quarters, two fourth-quarter touchdown drives from Kirk Cousins seemed to put the Vikings in position for yet another wild victory, only for Lions QB Jared Goff to drive 75 yards in 110 seconds and throw a winning touchdown to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the final play of the game. Take a look at that final play:
I have lots of questions about this play!!!!! pic.twitter.com/UlSklW2Imp
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 5, 2021
There's no subterfuge here. The Lions called four verticals and asked Goff to find an open receiver or a matchup he liked. Zimmer rushed only three linemen and dropped eight men into coverage in the end zone, trusting that he would win a matchup of eight versus four. With all due respect to the guys who made this play for Detroit, this was too easy. It's not like this was Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in terms of arm strength and contested catch ability. Xavier Woods and Cameron Dantzler weren't able to break on the football quickly enough to make the winning play.
The touchdown pass by Goff marked the fourth time in five weeks that the Vikings have allowed the opposing team to score at least 28 points. This is the fifth-worst five-game stretch of the Zimmer era in terms of points allowed, coming in behind four different stretches from the 2020 season. It's one thing to allow an offense with Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback to score, but the Vikings gave up 34 points to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers last week before Goff & Co. hit 29 on Sunday.
In a similar vein to the Saints, the Vikings are feeling the effects of losing their higher-priced stars to injuries. On Sunday, they were without four of their five most expensive defenders in Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. On offense, they didn't have Dalvin Cook or first-round pick Christian Darrisaw and then lost wideout Adam Thielen to a high ankle sprain during the contest.
The Vikings didn't have the depth to overcome those injuries. With an inconsistent pass rush and two backup linebackers on the field, the Lions tormented them. Goff posted a perfect passer rating and threw three touchdowns on passes at the intermediate level, between 10 and 19 yards downfield. He posted a 121.0 passer rating working off play-action, up more than 26 points from his average heading into the game. Minnesota blew a coverage on the long touchdown pass to backup tight end Brock Wright, which came off a Goff play fake.
On a short week, the Vikings now face the Steelers on Thursday night. It's unclear which of the injured starters will be back for that game, although it seems unlikely that the offense will have either Cook or Thielen on the field. Losing and falling to 5-8 would drop the Vikings' playoff chances down to 17%, per The Upshot's playoff model and force them to win out. Anything short of a playoff berth could inspire more wholesale changes in Minnesota, with both Cousins and Zimmer facing uncertain futures. After losing to the Lions, the Vikings are basically facing a must-win with one hand tied behind their back.
Biggest game remaining: Week 16 vs. Rams. Even if the Vikings do beat the Steelers on Thursday night, they'll essentially need to go 3-4 in their four other remaining games to have a realistic chance of making it to the postseason. With a road game against the Packers at Lambeau looming alongside a home-and-home with the Bears, they have to either pull off an upset on the road against Rodgers and Green Bay or beat the Rams at home. The latter seems more likely and comes earlier on the schedule.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 37%
As the Eagles hit their bye, they've been struck with an unexpected conundrum: Is there actually a quarterback controversy? With Jalen Hurts sidelined by an ankle injury, the Eagles turned to former Jaguars starter Gardner Minshew for Sunday's game against the Jets. Minshew wasn't facing the stiffest competition, but it's hard to argue with the results, as the mustachioed signal-caller went 20-of-25 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, posting a 78.4 QBR and a plus-14.0% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Minshew's adjusted completion percentage of 91.4% was the sixth-highest mark posted by any quarterback in a game this season.
Coming off of a frustrating 13-7 loss to the Giants in which Hurts threw three interceptions, it's fair to look at a nearly flawless day from Minshew and wonder whether the Eagles should head in a different direction. It's also fair to consider how Hurts was playing before that Giants game. Over the four-game stretch between Week 8 and Week 11, the Eagles ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play.
Hurts posted a 79.4 QBR over that stretch, which ranked second in the NFL. That number includes his impact as a runner, which was considerable; no player at any position produced more rushing EPA over that four-game run than Hurts, who generated 21.5 EPA on 48 carries. He had 20 first downs against 12 expected first downs as a runner, which also led the league. The Giants game was brutal, but was that more indicative of how Hurts will play than the four preceding contests?
One game also might not be indicative of how Minshew would operate in Eagles colors, but we have a fair amount of evidence that he is a viable quarterback. Between 2019 and 2020, he posted a 44.4 QBR across 23 appearances with the Jaguars. A 44.4 QBR isn't anything to write home about, but over that same time frame, the trio of Nick Foles, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton could muster only a 32.0 QBR with the same organization. Minshew is probably not a starting-caliber quarterback, but he's also not a replacement-level passer, either. If Hurts isn't ready to go after the bye, Minshew should be able to fill in and keep the Eagles in their four remaining games.
For two reasons, I would go with Hurts. One is that the ceiling of the offense is higher with him under center. We've seen the Eagles play at a high level when they built around Hurts as a runner in October and November. Dallas Goedert had one of the best games of his career on Sunday with Minshew at the helm, but do the Eagles really have the personnel to build a top-five offense around passing the football with Minshew? I find that pretty unlikely.
The other is that the Eagles probably would prefer to figure out whether they want to keep Hurts as their 2022 starter before they enter the offseason. Miami's winning streak has dropped its draft pick (which the Eagles own) out of the top five, but the Eagles still currently have the 10th and 11th picks in the 2022 draft, and they're expected to add the 19th pick unless Carson Wentz suffers a season-ending injury. Those three first-rounders should be enough to get the Eagles someone such as Russell Wilson if the veteran signal-caller does hit the trade market after the season. Philly general manager Howie Roseman probably wants to figure out whether he'll use those picks to build around Hurts or acquire his replacement.
Biggest game remaining: Week 17 at Washington. This could just as easily be the Week 15 game against Washington at home, given how important these two head-to-head matchups will be in deciding the race. If the Eagles sweep both games, they'll have a 77% chance of making it to the playoffs, per The Upshot. If they get swept, their season is over. Likewise, Washington has an 80% chance of making it to the playoffs with a Philly sweep and just an 8% chance if it loses both matchups. One reason to prefer Minshew, perhaps: Washington's defense ranks 30th against the pass by DVOA, but it is the seventh-best defense against the run.
2. Washington Football Team (6-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 41%
Left for dead after starting 2-6, Ron Rivera's team has come out of its Week 9 bye and surged to four straight victories. Inexplicably, it has pulled this off despite losing star defensive end Chase Young for the season in the Week 9 win over the Buccaneers; the edge rush duo of Young and Montez Sweat has combined for just 12 defensive snaps during this four-game win streak. I don't think it's realistic to suggest that the injuries galvanized Washington or helped them play better, but it has been incredible to see it succeed over the past month despite losing what was supposed to be the best part of its defense.
What has changed for the Washington defense is pretty simple, actually. When I wrote about this team after its 2-5 start, I mentioned that it was playing well on first and second down and had been one of the worst defenses in recent league history on third down. "Don't be surprised," I wrote at the time, "if Washington corrects things and looks pretty good on defense in the second half of the season."
Well, since then, it has allowed 17.4 points per game, which is the fifth-best mark in football. If you want to figure out why, take a look at how its rankings in defensive EPA per play have changed. Washington has transformed from the worst defense on third down to one of the league's best, even as it has gotten much worse on first and second down:
Washington has gone from allowing teams to convert an unfathomable 56.9% of the time on third down during the first seven games of the season to an above-average 36.5% rate over the ensuing five contests. Teams face more plays on first and second down than they do on third down, but given that a stop on third down can end a drive or turn a touchdown into a field goal, third-down performance has an outsized impact on a defense's results. Washington's defense was worth a league-worst minus-3.39 wins over the first seven weeks of the season; it is 14th in win probability added on defense since then, at minus-0.93 wins.
Getting off the field has helped Rivera's team establish a formula. It has played slow slogs, with an average of just 20 drives per game split between the two teams during this win streak, the second fewest in all of football. It has gotten much better at protecting the football, turning the ball over just once in each of its past four games after four straight games with two takeaways. Washington has generally controlled field position, with the third-best average starting field position difference in football over this run behind the Patriots and Colts.
And then, on top of that, only the Packers and Pats have averaged more yards per drive on offense over the past month than QB Taylor Heinicke & Co. Washington isn't playing pretty football, but when it has had an opportunity to either take the lead or hold on to its lead in the fourth quarter, it has been able to launch a long drive to do so, with the questionable call against Logan Thomas at the goal line on the final drive against Seattle as the lone exception. With all five games left on its schedule coming against NFC East competition, this team should be able to ride this formula back to the playoffs.
Biggest game remaining: Week 15 at Eagles. Washington finishes its season with five games against the NFC East, including home-and-homes with the Cowboys and Eagles. It might be too much to ask it to climb all the way back up the standings to compete with the Cowboys for a division title, but a win at Philadelphia would crush its East rivals and give it a crucial victory against a fellow wild-card contender. Winning its two remaining home games and beating the Eagles on the road would almost certainly get a nine-win Washington team into the postseason for the second consecutive season.
1. San Francisco 49ers (6-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 68.1%
The 49ers are the No. 1 team by a comfortable margin. Even after losing 30-23 to the Seahawks on Sunday, FPI thinks the 49ers are well ahead of the pack on their way to a wild-card berth. The Upshot's model agrees, pegging the 49ers at 64%. Given their record and the fact that the Cardinals and Rams (and a 1-4 record in the West) are blocking San Francisco's path to a division title, I have to admit that I was surprised to see them quite this high.
What gives? FPI thinks they have a relatively soft schedule for the run-in. From here on out, the Niners face the league's eighth-easiest schedule. Three of their final five games are on the road, but they have home games against the Falcons and Texans, who rank 31st and 32nd in DVOA. They will be comfortably favored in both those games, and if they can win both, The Upshot projects that they will have an 82% chance of making it to the playoffs. Winning one of their three remaining road games would get them to nine wins and all but lock up a playoff berth.
On top of that, advanced metrics generally think the 49ers are better than their record. DVOA had them as the seventh-best team heading into the game with the Seahawks, ahead of several teams with better pedigrees, such as the Packers (11th), Ravens (13th) and Titans (all the way down at 22nd). Even after the loss, FPI has the 49ers as the ninth-best team. The only other team on this list in the top half of the FPI rankings after Week 13 is the Vikings, who are 13th. Washington, for reference, is 24th on the FPI charts.
The same could be said for San Francisco's starting quarterback. Sunday wasn't exactly a shining game for Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw two interceptions, but he has played better than his reputation this season. Since returning from injury in Week 10, he has completed more than 70% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and posted the league's third-best QBR (67.2). The 49ers have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league in neutral situations over that span, but Garoppolo has been able to make teams pay when they do target the run.
If anything, I wonder whether the 49ers have been too dependent on the run during this stretch. While they have gone 3-1, their 150 rush attempts have produced minus-1.4 EPA. They're 10th in the NFL in EPA per rush attempt, and while that's fine, Garoppolo has generated 0.24 EPA per dropback over the past four games, which ranks seventh in the NFL. I'm sure that he would be less efficient if the 49ers abandoned the run, but I suspect that they could throw the ball more than they have been and produce more on offense in the process.
The big question for me is whether the 49ers can create the sort of pass pressure we saw during their Super Bowl run in 2019. That year, they generated pressure on 30.4% of their dropbacks, which ranked seventh in the league. Even during this impressive four-game run, they are getting home and pressuring opposing quarterbacks only 25.7% of the time, which is tied for 22nd. Given the injuries and inconsistent play in their secondary, they have to survive on defense by creating pressure. As much as we focus on their offense, the most important player on this roster down the stretch might be Nick Bosa.
Biggest game remaining: Week 14 at Cincinnati. The 49ers have to expect that they'll win the two home games. Their road games, though, are against the Bengals, Titans and Rams. Next Sunday's trip to Cincinnati is likely their best chance of pulling off a road upset. Beat the Bengals and their path to the postseason is clear.