The calendar has turned to December, which means it is the time of year when overreactions turn into ... well, just reactions. We have almost 13 full regular-season weeks of evidence to help us figure out who's good, who's not and who has a chance to raise the Lombardi trophy in early February.
Yes, the playoff races in both conferences remain wide-open. But some teams have begun to separate themselves from the bunch, and it's worth taking a look at what they're doing with the playoffs now five weeks away. All four NFC division leaders are looking good. Monday night's Patriots-Bills game could go a long way toward deciding the AFC East. The past two Super Bowl champs are playing very well, and if you wanted to pick them to return to the Super Bowl for a rematch, it'd be tough to argue too hard against you.
Yet, there's still plenty to figure out. Which means there are still plenty of Week 13 overreactions to sort through. We'll start this week with the team that's played in the past two Super Bowls.
The Chiefs, after all that, will end up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC
The Chiefs won their fifth game in a row Sunday night, beating the division "rival" Broncos 22-9 to maintain a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West. They're allowing an average of 10.4 points per game during their current winning streak, and at 8-4, they're in a four-way tie for the top spot in their conference.
If the Patriots win Monday, they'd take a half-game lead over Kansas City, Baltimore and Tennessee, but pending the outcome of that game, it's a four-way tie.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Look, the Pats and Bills have to play each other twice, which ostensibly dampens the chances of both of those teams unless one of them wins both. The Ravens just lost to the Steelers and are still losing key players left and right. The Titans are as banged-up as anybody. Other than New England (which, again, could easily lose a tough road game Monday night), Kansas City looks the best of any of the AFC's division leaders at this point in the season.
The remaining schedule is rough -- the Raiders at home next week, followed by a road game at the Chargers, a home game against the Steelers and road games in Cincinnati and Denver to close things out. But the way Steve Spagnuolo's defense is playing, Patrick Mahomes and the offense have some time and some leeway to get back to their high-flying ways in time for the postseason. It would surprise absolutely no one at this point for the Chiefs to come out of the AFC's regular season with the conference's lone bye.
Tom Brady will win his fourth MVP award
Brady's day in Atlanta wasn't perfect. He threw a hideous interception inside his own 10-yard line right before halftime that the Falcons returned for a touchdown to cut Tampa Bay's lead to three points. But Brady more than redeemed himself. He was a whopping 38-for-51 for 368 yards and four touchdown passes in a 30-17 victory that widened the Buccaneers' division lead to four games with five to play. The Bucs obviously came out with a pass-heavy game plan in this one. And with just a small handful of exceptions, Brady executed it with precision.
Tampa Bay is 9-3 and on the cusp of a division title that eluded the Bucs even last season, when they went on to win Super Bowl LV.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Sunday was Brady's sixth game this season with at least four touchdown passes. This is the sixth time in NFL history that a player has had six games with at least four touchdown passes. The other five times, that player won MVP. So at this point, it would be bucking history to not give it to Brady.
Moreover, a lot of his competition has faltered of late. Kyler Murray has played at an MVP level when he has been on the field, but he just missed three games and Arizona went 2-1 without him. Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes have all had their struggles. Aaron Rodgers missed a game after testing positive for COVID-19.
Brady's closest competition might be Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who makes an impressive case (18 total touchdowns, 1,348 rushing yards). But if you think a running back is beating a quarterback in an MVP race if it's at all close, you don't know much about the history of the MVP award.
Mike Zimmer is in his final weeks as Vikings coach
Minnesota's up-and-down season hit a new low Sunday, as Zimmer's Vikings became the first team this season to lose to the Lions. The game was loaded with questionable decisions. Zimmer's defense was way too lenient with the Lions even before allowing a 14-play, game-winning drive in the final 1:50.
The 5-7 Vikings are only a couple of weeks removed from an impressive victory over the Packers, and they've had some painful near misses this season, but there's no excusing this latest loss, and questions about whether Zimmer is on the hot seat as his eighth season in Minnesota enters its final stretch are certainly warranted.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. To be clear: I am not saying Zimmer is going to be fired, either now or after the season. The NFC playoff race is a jumble, and the Vikings could potentially be a couple of good weeks away from being right back in the picture. It's too soon to know for sure what the team will do once the season ends.
But it's certainly realistic to think they would make a change. With quarterback Kirk Cousins entering the final year of his contract, it's possible there could be a lot of changes in Minnesota. Sunday's loss to the Lions was a microcosm of a season that tilts toward disappointing, and if the Vikings don't finish with a flourish, it's entirely possible the Zimmer era could end.
Washington will catch the Cowboys and win the NFC East
Washington won its fourth game in a row Sunday with a final-minute field goal to beat the Raiders in Las Vegas. The streak immediately follows a four-game losing streak and improves Washington's record to 6-6 for the season. The defense has begun to play much better, even without its injured star pass-rushers, and the offense has found a ball-control identity behind Taylor Heinicke and Antonio Gibson.
The team is now two games behind first-place Dallas with five games left in the season, but two of those are head-to-head matchups against the Cowboys. Washington also has two games against the Eagles, who sit a half-game behind it in the division standings, and one in Week 18 against the Giants. Amazing as it sounds, Washington controls its own playoff destiny. Win out, and it's the division champ.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. I love, love, love what Ron Rivera's team has done for a turnaround this season. It is firmly in the playoff hunt, as a wild card even if it doesn't end up on top of the division. And it deserves nothing but credit for overcoming what it has overcome. But I still believe Dallas has a far better roster and that the two head-to-head matchups are a better thing for the Cowboys than they are for Washington.
Plus, since they hold the lead, the Cowboys have to win only one of those two to really reestablish control of this thing. When they play next Sunday, Dallas will be the better-rested team, as the Cowboys had a Thursday game this week.
I just don't see Washington beating Dallas twice and winning out, no matter how impressive its turnaround has been. The ESPN Football Power Index agrees, giving Washington an 8% chance to win the division. And maybe more important than all of this: No team has repeated as NFC East champs since the Eagles in 2003-04. There are dark forces at work here against Washington, never forget.
Russell Wilson will be the Saints' quarterback in 2022
The sadly undermanned Saints, you may or may not recall, got the week started with an ugly home loss to the Cowboys. Taysom Hill was the starting quarterback and stayed in even after he messed up the middle finger on his throwing hand because apparently Sean Payton has seen enough of Trevor Siemian and Jameis Winston is out for the year.
The Saints are dealing with a slew of injury issues on the offensive side of the ball, their season appears sunk or close to it, and they will be looking for a quarterback in the offseason. Wilson's Seahawks, meanwhile, finally got their offense going in the second half Sunday in a badly needed victory over the previously hot 49ers. But at 4-8 with five games to play, the Seahawks still face an uphill battle to avoid their first losing season since Wilson became their starter in 2012.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. I do not know where Wilson will be playing next season. I do know that the rumblings about his dissatisfaction with Seattle this past offseason had something behind them, and that his contract is much more tradable this offseason than it was last. We also know that the Saints were one of the four teams on the list his agent gave ESPN's Adam Schefter of teams to which Wilson would accept a trade.
Payton has to be drooling at the idea of coaching a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback just one year after losing Drew Brees to retirement. If -- and that's still a decent-sized "if" -- the Seahawks decide to move on from Wilson in a 2022 offseason that could see a lot of change, New Orleans is a completely reasonable landing spot.