After the first four games of the season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was considered a front-runner for the MVP award. He led the NFL in Total QBR (79.4) and touchdown passes (14) and ranked in the top five in several other passing categories. The Chiefs were 2-2, but Mahomes and the offense were doing their part, averaging 6.9 yards per play (first in the NFL) and 31.8 points per game (third).
Over the past five games, however, Mahomes' level of play has declined. His 33.6 QBR since Week 5 ranks 29th. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes (six) as interceptions. And the Chiefs are averaging just 5.0 yards per play, one of the worst rates in the league. He's not playing like the same quarterback who won MVP in 2018. The tape tells us that the 26-year-old is playing with unnecessary movement, leaving throws on the field and failing to go through his reads with clarity.
Let's take a deeper look at Mahomes -- using the tape and the numbers -- to address five major concerns that have creeped into his game. We'll also discuss how Mahomes and this Chiefs passing game can get back on track given the anticipated defensive approach it will see over the second half of the NFL season.
Pocket presence on the decline
What I've seen on tape: It's the unnecessary movement, which creates a lack of patience inside the pocket. There are plenty of examples of Mahomes voluntarily leaving a clean pocket to go outside of structure, which limits his ability to go through progression reads within the context of the Kansas City route scheme. His timing isn't right.
What the numbers show: During this five-game stretch, when Mahomes has delivered the ball in under three seconds, he is completing 70.5% of his passes. But when he averages over three seconds on the release time? That completion percentage crashes to 41.3%. And with opposing defenses blitzing Mahomes on only 10% of his dropbacks -- down from 21.2% last season -- his lack of pocket discipline has to be brought into question here. Put simply: When Mahomes bails out of the pocket and scrambles to throw -- one of his best traits in previous seasons -- he's not playing efficient football.
How it can be fixed: I would describe Mahomes' playing style as "frenetic" over the past five weeks. And the unnecessary movement reminds me of his college tape at Texas Tech. While Andy Reid and the Chiefs' coaches don't want to limit his natural playmaking traits -- nor his ability to go off script when necessary -- we've seen Mahomes make the rhythm throws in Reid's playbook. To get back on track, he needs more leveled concepts and the quick game -- where he can read it out with speed, getting from one to two, and deliver the ball on time. See it, trust it, throw it. Back to the basics.
Where are the intermediate throws?
What I've seen on tape: Mahomes isn't seeing the field with clarity, missing opportunities to make second-level throws within the offensive structure. This includes the schemed concepts in the Chiefs' playbook, which create windows to target tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill on crossers, in-breakers and flood concepts.
What the numbers show: Mahomes is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt over his past five games, which is down from 8.1 yards per attempt in 2020. If you just look at the intermediate passes (throws with air yards between 11 and 19 yards) over that timeframe, he is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 32nd in the league, ahead of only Taylor Heinicke (6.5) and Sam Darnold (5.4). Mahomes averaged nearly double that on the same throws last season (12.0). This meshes with what I see on tape, as he is leaving throws on the field that are part of his progressions.
How it can be fixed: These routes are available in Reid's playbook. And given that opposing defenses are playing so much 2-high zone coverage -- 50.4% of Mahomes' dropbacks -- to limit vertical throws down the field, this is where the Chiefs want to attack. Reid has the schemes to lift the top of the secondary, which allows Mahomes & Co. to stretch defenses horizontally on high-to-low intermediate throws. Want an example? Here's a breakdown piece we did on NFL Matchup earlier this season.
The @Chiefs 3x1 set was effective against the @Bills
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) October 9, 2021
last year in the AFC Championship. Here, @MattBowen41 shows how the verticals concept w/ Tyreek Hill on the swing creates voids vs. Cover 4 for this throw to TE Travis Kelce on the crosser.#ChiefsKingdom | #NFL | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/fT6HHT1ftn
When Mahomes throws with timing and plays in rhythm, the Chiefs' passing game structure has answers to beat split-safety coverage. He just has to execute.
Patience against zone coverage
What I've seen on tape: Teams are teaching Zone Defense 101 against Mahomes and the Chiefs right now. Align safeties deep, play with zone discipline and limit the explosive ability of Hill, Kelce and the Chiefs' weapons. Plus, with more defenses playing 2-man (two-deep, man-under), we're seeing aggressive, grabby coverage underneath -- especially against Kelce -- with two safeties putting a tent on top of the secondary. With Mahomes unable to hit deep shots and having issues on intermediate throws, his entire game is off.
What the numbers show: For the past five weeks, Mahomes has seen zone coverage on 64.8% of his dropbacks, the second most in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson, and 2-man coverage 14.4% of the time. His 40.5 QBR against zone coverage during this stretch is a steep drop from his 79.9 QBR against zone last season, which ranked first.
How it can be fixed: Pro defenses play with zone discipline to create impatience in opposing quarterbacks and playcallers. Defenses want to force quarterbacks to throw checkdowns, flat balls and unders -- while squeezing verticals over the top. That's when the mistakes happen. And I don't see that defensive script changing against Kansas City.
As we have talked about with Mahomes' movement and inability to remain calm in the pocket, however, he has to find and take those throws when targets make themselves available. As detailed by my NFL Matchup teammate Greg Cosell, Mahomes can take the outlets underneath when they are presented. Those are high-percentage throws with skill players in Kansas City who have the traits to produce after the catch.
The #ChiefsKingdom offense will need to make adjustments as they prepare for the #GoPackGo. Here, @GregCosell explains how the use of both Cover 2 Man and Cover 3 obstructs WR routes, swaying Mahomes from his primary read on pass plays. #NFL @MattBowen41 | @Larrytouchdown pic.twitter.com/eqE7Wi2kSp
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 7, 2021
The rise in 2-man coverage? You can thank coach Brandon Staley and the Chargers, who saw something back in Week 3. They played 2-man on 42.9% of Mahomes' dropbacks -- and every coordinator in the league has watched that tape. For me, this is about the Chiefs using motion, movement and alignment to give Kelce and Hill free access off the ball. Avoid the route disruption and run the staple 2-man beaters we see across the NFL.
Ball security is a problem
What I've seen on tape: There have been a few drops that have led to interceptions, no doubt. Hill and the receivers haven't helped out their quarterback as much as they should. But I also see Mahomes extending plays to his detriment. We can look at the throws into contested windows when he plays outside of structure, or the movement -- both inside and outside the pocket -- where he is simply too loose with the ball.
What the numbers show: Over the past five games, Mahomes has thrown six interceptions and fumbled five times (losing two). He has already turned the ball over 12 times this season, four more than he had all of last season. This is a massive problem.
How it can be fixed: There will always be a sandlot element to Mahomes' game. That's why I don't focus as much on his mechanics or his unique arm slots and throwing platforms as a quick fix to his current issues.
But when he doesn't set his throwing window -- or extends plays when there are opportunities to check it down or throw it away -- it leads to negative situations. Of the six picks he has since Week 5, three of them have come on second-reaction throws. Is it too easy to say that Mahomes has to protect the football and be a better decision-maker when he gets to the edges? No, I don't think so. Because we have seen him be aggressive as a thrower -- especially on the move -- but also calculated. This is something that can be corrected over the next eight games.
Not having a running game hurts
What I've seen on tape: With the amount of Cover 2, quarters and 2-man coverage the Chiefs are seeing every week, the lack of an efficient, meaningful running game in Kansas City has allowed opposing defenses to dictate both coverage and game tempo. With two safeties aligned as a deep as 18 yards off the ball in some instances, the Chiefs' unwillingness to attack six- and seven-man boxes with the run game is concerning.
What the numbers show: If we take out the scramble attempts from Mahomes and simply focus on true rushing attempts, the Chiefs have logged just 98 carries over the past five games. The production? They are averaging only 69.4 rushing yards per game over the past five games, while Mahomes is at 50 pass attempts per game. Reid has to help out his quarterback.
How it can be fixed: This might sound elementary, but getting into 12 (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) and 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs) with a dedicated approach to the run game is a quick fix here. Even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still down with a knee injury, the Chiefs can create efficiency on the ground in both zone and gap schemes. Pound the football. Force defenses to adjust -- and make a tackle.
And if they don't? Hand it off again, while setting up Mahomes on defined throws to vacated zones on under-center play-action concepts. And don't forget about the screen game here as another way to create offensive production for Mahomes. These are easy throws that can pick up chunk yardage.