This week, we wanted to look at the silly, sloppy NFC East -- football's most consistently unpredictable division. When I lived in Florida, they used to say, "If you don't like the weather, just wait 10 minutes." The NFC East is the Florida weather of NFL divisions. There is no geographically grouped NFL quartet that better lends itself to week-to-week overreaction.
Week 2 began with a classically ridiculous NFC East matchup, as Washington beat the Giants when it missed a winning field goal with no time left, but the Giants jumped offsides, and it made good on its second chance. That improved the defending division champions' record to 1-1 and dropped the Giants' to their customary 0-2.
Then Sunday saw the Eagles lose to the 49ers and the Cowboys beat the Chargers on a last-second field goal of their own, and the standings look just the way they're supposed to: three teams tied at 1-1 and the other just one game back. Right on track to crown a 9-8 or 8-9 division champion that everyone will complain shouldn't get a home playoff game.
Because of my longstanding affinity for the NFC East and all of its wildly unpredictable weirdness, I wanted to start the Week 2 overreactions column with this one, which surely will inspire some sort of reaction:
The Cowboys are once again NFC East favorites
When Sunday began, the Cowboys were 0-1 but were already favored by ESPN's Football Power Index with a 43.2% chance to win the division. (The Eagles, the only team in the division that won in Week 1, were second at 30.9%.) The Cowboys won Sunday, the Eagles lost and the other two teams didn't play, so you have to figure the FPI likes Dallas' chances even better now.
The Cowboys survived a series of dazzlingly bad, potentially catastrophic clock-management decisions and won on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein -- 10 days after they lost to the defending champion Buccaneers on a last-second field goal. They could easily be 2-0 or 0-2 or 0-1-1 ... they're a high-wire act so far this season, but they've played pretty well.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Before you say anything: Please understand that I am not saying they are the division favorite. I am saying it's not an overreaction to say they're the favorite, because it wouldn't be an overreaction to say that about Washington or Philadelphia either. Maybe even the Giants, but it's been so darn long since the Giants have been good that I struggle to extend them any benefit of the doubt.
The point is, if you thought before the season that the Cowboys would win the division, and you've watched their first two games, you probably still think that. The DeMarcus Lawrence injury and the La'el Collins suspension are both damaging and likely will cost them games. But they didn't cost them Sunday's game, and the Cowboys are 1-0 without those guys. Tread water until they get back, steal another game here or there, beat the other teams in the division, and they could be in strong position for a big finish come December and January.
Some team has to win this thing, and Dallas does have the best quarterback. If you want to crown 'em, as Dennis Green once said, then crown 'em. Just be prepared to change your mind eight or 10 times before the season's over.
Mac Jones will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jones was a workmanlike 22-for-30 passing for 186 yards in the Patriots' 25-6 victory over the Jets. Not exactly eye-popping numbers, especially when you consider that's only 18 more passes than Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, a fellow rookie, completed to members of the Patriots. Jones did not throw a touchdown pass or an interception.
It was a game in which the Patriots didn't have to do too much work, because the Jets -- who turned it over four times -- were doing the work for them. New England had just 260 yards of total offense, and that was more than it needed. Through his first two career games, however, Jones has completed 73.9% of his passes and hasn't thrown a pick.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. This award tends to lean toward quarterbacks, and if the Patriots have a good team and Jones spends the season keeping the ball out of trouble, he absolutely could win it. The quarterbacks who would be his direct competition aren't off to great starts. Wilson had a brutal day Sunday. Justin Fields didn't show a ton in relief of the injured Andy Dalton in Chicago. Trevor Lawrence's Jaguars had 189 yards of total offense. Trey Lance watched the 49ers' game from the bench.
But the award doesn't have to go to a quarterback. Joe Burrow seems interested in helping receiver Ja'Marr Chase contend for this award in Cincinnati, finding him for touchdowns in two straight weeks. Kyler Murray seems interested in doing the same for Rondale Moore in Arizona. (Moore scored a 77-yard TD on Sunday.) Long way to go here. Jones has been solid but not spectacular. He's set up for success, but early returns indicate the Patriots might not ask enough of him to allow for, say, the numbers Justin Herbert put up last season.
Tom Brady is about to have his best season ever
A week after throwing four touchdown passes in the Bucs' season-opening victory over Dallas, Brady threw five in a victory over Atlanta. That, for all you non-math majors out there, makes nine total and puts Brady on pace to throw 77 touchdown passes this season, which would be a record. I looked it up. He has 17 TD passes over his past four games (including the playoffs), tied for his most in a four-game span.
Yes, Brady is 44, and no one has ever done this stuff at that age. But no one had ever done what he did last year at 43 until he did, so it's not as if you should just knee-jerk bet against him. His wide receiver corps is stacked, his best buddy, Rob Gronkowski, is rejuvenated and catching touchdowns, and Brady appears set up to do just about whatever he wants to do.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Brady's career high in passing yards is 5,235, set in 2011. His career high in touchdown passes is 50, set in 2007. He finished both of those seasons by losing the Super Bowl to the Giants, so he's not going to tell you either of those was his best season ever. When I covered the Yankees, we'd ask Derek Jeter what kind of season he thought he'd had and he'd always respond by saying, "Did we win the World Series?" The implication was that, if the answer was no, he hadn't had the year he wanted.
Brady seems similar in that regard, so he's not likely to consider his age-44 season his best unless the Bucs repeat as champs. But they certainly appear good enough to do that, first of all, and in terms of his individual performance, he's way ahead of where he was this time last season, when he was new in town and there hadn't been a real offseason.
The question we can't answer about Brady is whether he can hold up over an entire 17-game season. So there is much uncharted territory involved. But if you've been watching Brady for the past two decades, you probably think he's capable of anything. A huge year even by his standards is not at all out of the question.
Jon Gruden and the Raiders have finally figured it out
Las Vegas flew across the country on a short week and hung 26 points on the (admittedly banged-up) Steelers' defense. Year 4 of the second Jon Gruden Raiders era has begun 2-0, which is no small thing considering they didn't finish over .500 in any of the first three. The wins have come against perennial contenders Baltimore and Pittsburgh, making this the first time the Raiders have ever started 2-0 with wins against teams that made the playoffs the previous season.
Their next six games don't look overly daunting before they get to their first Chiefs game of the year in Week 10. Quarterback Derek Carr's talented, young pass-catchers seem to be coming of age together, and he looks as good as he ever has. It's possible it just took four years for the whole project to click, no?
The verdict: OVERREACTION. We're going to hold off on anointing the Raiders as Super Bowl contenders for a while. They started 2-0 last season, beat the Chiefs in Week 5 and ran their record to 6-3 before losing five of their last seven and fizzling right out of the playoff picture. During Gruden's current tenure, the Raiders are 7-6 in September games, 2-7 in October games, 7-6 in November games and 5-10 in December/January games. If you want to stay skeptical until you see them actually last the season and cash in on a hot start, I'm right there with you.
In particular, I'll buy that Carr is better than most people often like to assume he is and the group around him is very talented (even, as was the case Sunday, without starting running back Josh Jacobs). But the main thing I'd like to see from the Raiders over the coming weeks is their defense start to look like a consistently formidable unit. Great start, sure, but there's farther than ever to go before we know whether it will finally be more than that.
The Steelers' offense is a major problem
Pittsburgh scored 17 points and had 331 yards of offense in Sunday's loss to the Raiders. A week earlier, it had just 252 yards and 23 points in a victory over Buffalo. (One of its touchdowns in that game came on a blocked punt.) The overhauled offensive line does not, so far, look much better than last year's unit. (It didn't help that Trai Turner got ejected for spitting toward a Raiders player on Sunday.) New offensive coordinator Matt Canada was supposed to have spiced up this operation with a bunch of fun pre-snap motion concepts, but so far the Steelers' offense looks stuck in the mud.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The line issues crushed them in the final weeks of the 2020 season, so the Steelers know what can happen if they don't get things fixed up front. While they do that, part of the plan was to let their defense dominate and stay in games that way. But injuries kept several key defensive players, including Devin Bush, T.J. Watt and Tyson Alualu, on the sideline for all or most of Sunday's game, and Derek Carr and the Raiders lit them up.
If the defense can't get healthy, the Steelers might not be able to weather the putting-it-all-together phase of this offensive retooling. And if that phase takes longer than expected, they could end up falling behind before long.