The NFL's divisional structure remains one of the great bastions of parochialism. Relative leaguewide parity and routine interconference matchups make it a 1-to-32 league, but teams and fan bases still lock in, first and foremost, on the goal of beating out the other teams in their divisions. The schedule necessitates it. Teams play each of the other three in their division twice a year. The rules say a division gets at least one playoff team no matter how bad it is. All politics, as the saying goes, is local.
The fun part is that not all divisions are created equal. Last season, the AFC North put three teams in the playoffs, while the NFC East didn't have a single team finish .500. The Packers and Chiefs were the only teams in their respective divisions to finish over .500. The 49ers were the only team in the NFC West to finish under.
The relative strength of each of the eight divisions lends texture to the playoff race. You might think San Francisco, given improved injury luck, has the best chance of any of the 2020 last-place finishers to win its division this season, and you might be right. But a still-loaded NFC West offers obstacles to that accomplishment that don't confront a 2020 basement dweller like, say, Philadelphia. It's one thing to finish last. It's another to finish last and be only 2½ games out of first.
So with the NFL season a little over three weeks away, we thought it would be fun to rank the divisions from best to worst. As a starting point, we used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) ratings of all 32 teams, but we adjusted off those in some spots for reasons we explain below:
1. NFC WEST
FPI ratings (7.3 overall):
Los Angeles Rams: 2.9 (7th in NFL)
San Francisco 49ers: 2.6 (8th)
Seattle Seahawks: 2.5 (9th)
Arizona Cardinals: minus-0.7 (21st)
It wasn't particularly close for the top spot. The expected quarterback upgrade from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford makes the Rams a narrow favorite, but the 49ers are just two seasons removed from an NFC title and can't possibly suffer the same lousy injury luck as they did last year. Seattle is Seattle -- always in contention and armed with the most accomplished coach and quarterback of any team in the division. And the Cardinals, don't forget, were 6-3 and a strong playoff contender last season following DeAndre Hopkins' ludicrous game-winning Hail Mary catch against the Bills. I doubt many people are picking them to win this division, but it wouldn't be the most stunning upset in league history if they did.
There are only nine teams with an FPI rating over 2.0, and the NFC West has three of them. The new postseason format, which adds an additional wild-card team per conference, makes it possible for a division to send all four of its teams to the playoffs. As long as they don't beat up one another too badly and they make hay in their non-divisional matchups, the NFC West quartet could become the first to pull off that feat.
2. AFC NORTH
FPI ratings (3.6 overall):
Baltimore Ravens: 3.7 (4th in NFL)
Cleveland Browns: 3.0 (6th)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.1 (17th)
Cincinnati Bengals: minus-3.2 (27th)
The Ravens and Browns rank higher than any team in the NFC West, according to the FPI ratings. This is the only division with two teams in the FPI top six, and neither of them is the defending division champion. That would be the Steelers, who started last season 11-0 before running completely out of gas and losing to the Browns in the wild-card round. The division's overall ranking is dragged down by Cincinnati.
But is there another division whose last-place team embarrassed its first-place team on Monday Night Football in Week 15? Is there another division whose third-ranked team -- based on FPI -- has a coach (Mike Tomlin) who has never had a losing season in 14 years and a quarterback who has never had a losing season in 17 (Ben Roethlisberger)? The Browns attacked their defensive deficiencies this offseason and could have as many as nine new starters on that side of the ball. The Ravens' Lamar Jackson was league MVP two seasons ago. The Bengals should get Joe Burrow back healthy and believe they've beefed up his supporting cast in his second season. And the Steelers? Well, they're the Steelers.
FPI hates the Steelers' offense but rates their defense No. 3 overall, behind only the Bucs and the Rams. Where the Steelers are good -- defensive front seven, wide receiver -- they're extremely good. Where they have question marks, they know it. Their offensive line, one of the worst in the league a year ago, is completely overhauled, with the right tackle moving to left tackle, a rookie center, a newly signed veteran guard in Trai Turner and question marks at all five spots.
"That five, how quick they can come together is going to be a big, big part of whether we're good," Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert told me at one of their training camp practices earlier this month. If the 39-year-old Roethlisberger has anything left, if rookie running back Najee Harris can contribute as much as they believe he can, if the secondary and offensive line can get sorted out, the Steelers will have themselves in the mix as always. You might not like them on paper, but they know that, and they're using it for motivation.
3. AFC EAST
FPI ratings (2.4 overall):
Buffalo Bills: 4.4 (3rd in NFL)
New England Patriots: 1.7 (10th)
Miami Dolphins: 1.2 (11th)
New York Jets: minus-4.9 (30th)
Here is the part where you start to tell me I'm an idiot (if you haven't already). The AFC East's overall FPI rating is behind that of the AFC West and the NFC South, yet I'm rating it above both of them. And while you might not agree, I have my reasons.
Fundamentally -- and even FPI backs this up -- this division has more good teams than those two. Miami ranks third in FPI in the AFC East but still higher than the second-place teams in the AFC West and NFC South. Essentially, my argument is that the Jets drag this division's overall rating down more than the Chiefs and Bucs drag their divisions' overall ratings up.
Start with Buffalo, which basically returns the same roster that went 13-3 and lost to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game last season. I asked a bunch of Bills players and coaches about that game when I was at their camp a few weeks ago, and they all remain puzzled why things went so badly for them that day. They had won eight games in a row, 11 out of 12, hadn't played a bad game in three months and took a 9-0 lead in the first quarter before the Patrick Mahomes steamroller got them. Buffalo addressed the pass rush in April's draft and believes it is in a better position to pressure Mahomes the next time it sees him. Couple the Bills' talent with their motivation and they feel like the most significant threat to Kansas City in the AFC.
They'll have to fight their way out of a sneaky-tough division, though. Bill Belichick still coaches the Patriots and spent big this offseason to upgrade their pass-catcher corps. They appear to have a strong offensive line in front of Cam Newton or Mac Jones -- whichever quarterback starts this season -- and also return several key defensive players who opted out of last season for COVID-19 reasons. FPI rates the Patriots' defense the fourth best in the NFL.
Miami finished 10-6 last season and missed the playoffs but is counting on a big jump from 2020 No. 5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa, strong sophomore seasons from several offensive linemen and the help of an upgraded receiver corps that includes Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle, the No. 6 overall pick in April. Former Belichick assistant Brian Flores has impressed in his first two seasons as Dolphins coach, and if Tagovailoa is the player they thought he was when they picked him, this team is a threat to take another step.
The Jets remain under construction with a rookie quarterback and head coach of their own. FPI rates them 27th in defense, 30th in offense and 30th overall. But you know... the only way for them to go is up, right?
4. AFC WEST
FPI ratings (4.0 overall):
Kansas City Chiefs: 6.6 (1st in NFL)
Los Angeles Chargers: 0.1 (7th)
Denver Broncos: minus-0.2 (19th)
Las Vegas Raiders: minus-2.5 (25th)
The fall of the Chiefs' division has to stop here (though it was close between this one and the one just below it). Kansas City is the No. 1 team according to FPI by a solid 1.3 points (6.6 to 5.3) over the Tampa Bay team it lost to in Super Bowl LV and the top FPI team in offense by a healthy margin (5.9 to 3.2) over the Packers. The Chiefs have been to the last two Super Bowls and lost an overtime AFC Championship Game the season before that. Their quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) is the league's best player. Their coach (Andy Reid) is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer who hasn't lost a step. They have the league's top tight end (Travis Kelce) and fastest wide receiver (Tyreek Hill), and their rebuilt offensive line looks like it could be one of the best right out of the gate. The only thing that keeps the Chiefs from being an obvious Super Bowl favorite is that their conference looks much tougher than Tampa Bay's.
But then there's the rest of the division, which doesn't land a single team in the FPI top 17. People have high hopes for the Chargers, but what else is new? People always had high hopes for Charlie Brown's chances to kick the football before Lucy yanked it away at the last second. The Chargers are the classic "fool me nine times, shame on you; fool me 10 times, shame on me" team. I promise you there isn't a bigger Justin Herbert fan in the NFL media than me, but I long ago passed the point where this organization has to show me before I believe it.
Part of the issue with the Chargers is that the entire coaching staff around Herbert is new and unproven. Part of the issue with the other two teams in the division is that their coaching staffs are not new and have not proved to be very successful thus far. Much of the Aaron-Rodgers-to-Denver talk this summer centered on the idea that the Broncos had a ready-made supporting cast for him, but the truth is that the their receiving corps is young and inexperienced and hasn't shown much of a knack for staying healthy. FPI likes their defense a little (14th best), dislikes their offense a little (20th best), and unless Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater is about to have a career year, it's hard to see this group as anything more than middle of the pack.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have gone 4-12, 7-9 and 8-8 in Jon Gruden's second tenure. They boast a middling offense that has yet to find the right mix at wide receiver and a defense that has been atrocious the past few years and ranks 30th in preseason FPI. Basically, you can make an argument for any of the three non-Chiefs teams in the division to be a surprise contender this year and you could turn out to be right. But take away a Super Bowl title Gruden won nearly two decades ago and there isn't a lot on any of their résumés to suggest success is imminent.
5. NFC SOUTH
FPI ratings (2.5 overall):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5.3 (2nd in NFL)
New Orleans Saints: 1.0 (13th)
Carolina Panthers: minus-1.7 (23rd)
Atlanta Falcons: minus-2.1 (24th)
This was a two-team race a year ago, with the Saints coming out on top in the regular season but the Bucs getting the last laugh in the postseason. The retirement of Drew Brees and the uncertainty around the Saints' current quarterback situation, coupled with the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers returning all of their starters on both sides of the ball, has resulted in a pretty big gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the NFC South.
The Saints are one of the most difficult teams to figure out this preseason. A lot of the key components that make them a four-time defending division champion remain in place. FPI ranks them the No. 5 defense in the league. Alvin Kamara still leads the backfield. Sean Payton is still the coach. And it's not as if Brees was operating at his highest level last season, so how big a deal could the QB situation really be? The issue is that, for the first time in a decade and a half, it's an unknown in New Orleans. Payton told me recently at training camp that he's more concerned about the depth he has at cornerback and defensive tackle.
If we were sure the Saints were going to be good, this division probably would rank ahead of the AFC West. If we were sure they were going to be bad, maybe it would fall behind the NFC North. We don't know. FPI is calling the Saints a top-half-of-the-league team, but not by much. The degree to which Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill or some combination of the two can elevate New Orleans will determine how much of a walkover this is for the Bucs.
In Carolina, new quarterback Sam Darnold has too much to prove. He's got a talented supporting cast, and if he plays to his draft pedigree, the Panthers could have an offense much better than the No. 24 ranking FPI is giving it now. But that's a big if. In Atlanta, the coaching staff is new and the defense is a major question mark, but Matt Ryan is at least the second-best quarterback in the division.
6. NFC NORTH
FPI ratings (minus-3.2 overall):
Green Bay Packers: 3.1 (5th in NFL)
Minnesota Vikings: 0.6 (15th)
Chicago Bears: minus-1.5 (22nd)
Detroit Lions: minus-5.4 (31st)
If the Packers had decided to trade Aaron Rodgers -- or if he'd decided to retire or sit out games -- there's a decent chance this division would have been the worst in the league. Hopes are high in Chicago for rookie quarterback Justin Fields, but he might not even be the starter in Week 1. And there are some legitimate questions about the Bears' offensive line situation. FPI ranks their offense 27th and their once-vaunted defense merely 13th. The Bears were an 8-8 wild-card team last season, basically the definition of mediocrity. If Fields is going to lift them out of that, we're going to have to see it before we change our opinions.
Minnesota joins the parade of mediocrity, at least in terms of preseason expectations. Mike Zimmer's defense was uncharacteristically disappointing in 2020, and FPI isn't expecting much of an improvement this season, ranking the Vikings 25th in defense (and ninth on offense). Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is also one of the most prominent players who isn't vaccinated against COVID-19, which means he and potentially other key Vikings players could miss games due to protocols.
Plain and simple, the Lions are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball. FPI ranks them 31st in offense and defense.
Which leaves the Packers, two-time defending division champs and NFC runners-up. Rodgers makes their otherwise deep and talented roster a Super Bowl contender, which elevates the NFC North over the last two divisions listed here.
7. NFC EAST
FPI ratings (minus-5.8 overall):
Dallas Cowboys: 0.7 (14th)
Washington Football Team: minus-0.2 (20th)
New York Giants: minus-2.5 (26th)
Philadelphia Eagles: minus-3.8 (28th)
Surprise! Yes, the one thing about which you were certain when you started reading turns out to not be true. The NFC East, the division in which every team finished under .500 last season, is not the worst division in football.
How can this be? Well, to be honest, it was a tough call. I think (though FPI disagrees slightly) that the top two teams in the AFC South are better than any of the teams in the NFC East. But I also think the bottom two teams in the AFC South are worse than any of the teams in the NFC East. It was kind of a coin flip, but I decided to go with the NFC East because I think there's a better chance of the Giants or Eagles fielding a contender in 2021 than for the Jaguars or Texans to do so. This, I recognize, is not saying much.
As for the division itself, there's not a ton to say that you don't know. These are all high-profile teams whose strengths and weaknesses are quite familiar to a wide swath of the football-watching public. The Cowboys should field an elite offense, but there are major questions on the defensive side of the ball, where they were abysmal last season. Washington should field an elite defense, but it is counting on the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to elevate the offense. Fitzpatrick has a career 1.32 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has never -- not once in 16 seasons -- played on a team that reached the playoffs. Only three of his teams have ever finished with winning records, which is the same number of winning records Ron Rivera has in his 10 seasons as an NFL head coach. It's fun to root for both of those guys, but their track records don't scream "division favorite."
The seasons for the Giants and Eagles depend almost entirely on the extent to which their young quarterbacks make a jump. The teams worked this offseason to improve the receiving corps around Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts, respectively. The Giants still have offensive line questions, but their defense played well last season. The Eagles signed several key veterans on defense, perhaps indicating that they expect to have to lean on that unit in 2021.
8. AFC SOUTH
FPI ratings (minus-10.6 overall):
Tennessee Titans: 1.2 (12th in NFL)
Indianapolis Colts: 0.3 (16th)
Jacksonville Jaguars: minus-4.4 (29th)
Houston Texans: minus-7.7 (32nd)
As you can see, the Jaguars' and Texans' ratings act as an anchor around this division's neck. Tennessee might be a Super Bowl contender if it fixed its pass rush this offseason. And the Colts have a right to feel similarly if coach Frank Reich can unlock the old Carson Wentz (and if Wentz can get/stay healthy and if left tackle Eric Fisher comes back from his Achilles injury quickly). But those are both pretty big ifs, and there is a lot more reason to wonder whether those teams will be great than there is to wonder whether the other two will be lousy.
No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence offers glimmering hope for the future of the perpetually moribund Jaguars, but that future might take a while to coalesce. First and foremost, they're going to have to find ways to protect him behind an offensive line that isn't exactly the league's best. Second, Urban Meyer will have to buck the trend of highly successful college coaches flopping at the NFL level. The offseason has not exactly been free from indications he could struggle.
And the Texans? Where to begin. Deshaun Watson is in camp, but he's not practicing and doesn't want to play for them. The NFL is investigating Watson as he faces 22 active lawsuits with allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, which could result in the quarterback not playing at all this season. Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills are the top choices at quarterback, and while new general manager Nick Caserio signed a ton of players this offseason, a lot of it felt like Band-Aid work for a team that appears to be taking a couple of huge steps backward before going forward. FPI ranks the Texans 32nd in both offense and defense by healthy margins. They are the heavy favorites to be picking first in the 2022 NFL draft.