All right, so Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson didn't get traded, but Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz did. This offseason has, by turns, featured quarterback questions in Houston, Chicago, New England, Carolina, New Orleans, Denver, San Francisco ... Pittsburgh -- for a hot second.
But if you think this has been wild, wait until you see the NFL quarterback landscape next offseason.
There's a lot we don't know, obviously. A year ago, if I had told you the Eagles were going to be changing coaches and quarterbacks in the offseason, you'd have looked at me funny. Much can change between now and the end of the season. But from this distance, we can get at least a general idea of which teams will be in the 2022 quarterback market and which quarterbacks they might be pursuing, even if the top prospects in next April's draft are far from locked in.
Let's look into the crystal ball and evaluate all the teams that could change quarterbacks next offseason. Buckle up -- there are 18 teams. We'll do them in alphabetical order:
Atlanta Falcons
Current starter: Matt Ryan
Signed through: 2023
There was some thought around the league that the rebuilding Falcons would move on from the 36-year-old Ryan this offseason, particularly with the team having the No. 4 overall pick in April's draft.
Atlanta did not, and indications are that the organization plans to have him at least two more years. The contract will be a lot easier to escape next offseason, and if the Falcons have a rough-enough year that they have another top-five pick, it could be time to cut the cord.
Most likely outcome: Ryan comes back for 2022. The Falcons could cut him before his $7.5 million roster bonus is due in March, but even then they'd take on a dead-money cap hit in excess of $40 million (though they could move about $15 million of that into 2023 if they designated him a post-June 1 cut).
Long shot: Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell or some other high draft pick. This assumes things go poorly in coach Arthur Smith's first year and the Falcons are in a position to start the reboot at the position.
Carolina Panthers
Current starter: Sam Darnold
Signed through: 2022
Picking up Darnold's $18.858 million fifth-year option for 2022 doesn't guarantee that he will be the Panthers' quarterback next year, even after they traded three picks to the Jets to get him.
Carolina is paying him only about $4.8 million in 2021, so the way the Panthers look at it, that's about $23.6 million over two years. If he flops and the team can go out and get an improvement, they'd treat the option as a sunk cost.
Most likely outcome: Darnold returns.
Long shot: Deshaun Watson, on whom the Panthers had their eye long before the Darnold deal. The 25-year-old Watson asked the Texans to be traded in January, but his status is up in the air as he faces 22 active lawsuits with allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior.
Denver Broncos
Current starter: Drew Lock/Teddy Bridgewater
Signed through: 2022 for Lock, 2021 for Bridgewater
Denver was the team waiting to pounce if and when the Packers made Rodgers available, but that never happened. Now the Broncos hope Lock or Bridgewater plays well enough in 2021 to keep them out of the 2022 quarterback market.
Unless and until that happens, we have to count them among the most QB-thirsty teams when we look ahead to next year. That means they could look to the draft, but it also means they could make another run at Rodgers in an offseason when he might actually be available. More on that in a minute.
Most likely outcome: Aaron Rodgers via trade
Long shot: Russell Wilson via trade. This assumes Wilson's issues with the Seattle organization deepen between now and next offseason, at which point his contract will be easier to move.
Detroit Lions
Current starter: Jared Goff
Signed through: 2024
The hope is that Goff is more than a one-year stopgap, and it would cost the Lions $30.5 million in dead money to cut him before the 2022 season. But not much is expected of the Lions, and they could be picking near or at the very top of the first round; ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives them the second-best chance (15%) to have the No. 1 overall pick. Should that happen, they'll have to evaluate Goff vs. a prospect at the top of the board.
Remember, the Lions will have two first-round picks next year -- they still have one they got from the Rams along with Goff in the Stafford deal -- and can maneuver up the board if needed.
Most likely outcome: Goff returns.
Long shot: Rattler, Howell or another other high draft pick. If the Lions have as bad a year as many expect them to have, they could have their pick of any prospect in the 2022 class.
Green Bay Packers
Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
Signed through: 2022
Is there a chance the Packers win the Super Bowl and all of the fences can be mended between Rodgers and the organization? Sure, but it's a single-digit-percentage chance. The team reworked Rodgers' deal in July, voiding the 2023 year, but the strong likelihood is that it moves on from him in 2022.
Now, if the Packers do that and 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love isn't ready to take over, they're going to take a bunch of justifiable heat for that pick. They're also not going to be stubborn about it if the kid can't play. Put the Packers down as possible entrants into the 2022 QB market just because of the Rodgers situation.
Most likely outcome: Love takes over.
Long shot: Rodgers. Hey, it's not completely out of the question that the Packers win the Super Bowl and both sides agree to run it back. Right???
Houston Texans
Current starter: Deshaun Watson/Tyrod Taylor
Signed through: 2025 for Watson, 2021 for Taylor
The Texans signed Taylor in March and drafted Davis Mills in Round 3, and yes, Watson is still there. Watson doesn't want to be there, though, and Houston likely will fulfill his trade request at some point, though his on-field future is uncertain because of the 22 lawsuits he faces.
Like Detroit, Houston projects to be picking at the top of the 2022 draft -- FPI gives it a 24% chance to have the No. 1 pick -- so if the Taylor/Mills combo doesn't look promising, it could have an option for addressing the position long term. It's also possible the Texans get back a promising young quarterback prospect in a potential Watson trade. Looking at you, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa ...
Most likely outcome: Rattler, Howell or whoever is most likely to be the No. 1 pick.
Long shot: Watson -- a long shot because a reconciliation between him and the team is unlikely.
Indianapolis Colts
Current starter: Carson Wentz
Signed through: 2024
What? Again?? The Colts hope not. They hope Wentz is the long-term answer. He's only 28, after all, and the reunion with Frank Reich, who was his offensive coordinator in Philly, was looking good before he needed to have foot surgery earlier this month.
Problem is, Wentz has been hurt a lot, and he wasn't good the last time we saw him. There are several possible roads that lead to the Colts moving on next season and changing quarterbacks for the fourth offseason in a row.
Most likely outcome: Wentz. He already has $15 million of his 2022 salary guaranteed, and the remaining $7 million becomes guaranteed in March. The team could get out of the deal and spread some dead money out over 2022 and 2023, but it wouldn't be completely painless.
Long shot: Andrew Luck comes out of ... Hahahahahaha. Sorry, I couldn't do it with a straight face.
Las Vegas Raiders
Current starter: Derek Carr
Signed through: 2022
Yeah, the "Jon Gruden doesn't like Derek Carr" narrative is played out and has kind of been proved false, given that Carr is entering his fourth season as Gruden's starter. But we take a cold, businesslike approach to these kinds of exercises.
Next offseason, Carr will have only one, non-guaranteed year left on his contract. The Raiders have gone 4-12, 7-9 and 8-8 at the start of Gruden's second tenure. Given the way that Raiders ownership feels about him, Gruden might have more job security than just about any coach this side of Kansas City or New England. But another disappointing year would almost have to make the organization reevaluate, right? And that could mean a reboot under a different coach, quarterback or both.
Most likely outcome: Carr, after a contract extension.
Long shot: Russell Wilson. The Raiders were on his list of potential destinations, remember, if he were to demand a trade.
Los Angeles Rams
Current starter: Matthew Stafford
Signed through: 2022
The popular belief here is that Stafford, finally free from the relentless losing atmosphere of Detroit, will thrive under Sean McVay for a playoff-contending Rams team. This is more likely than not. But it's not a 100% certainty, and if Stafford flops in L.A., the team could cut him before paying his $10 million roster bonus in March and take no cap hit whatsoever.
One thing to remember, though, is that the Rams don't have a first-round pick, so if they were to change quarterbacks next offseason, it might have to be a trade or a free agent.
Most likely outcome: Stafford returns.
Long shot: Kirk Cousins. Maybe Minnesota is done with him and the Rams could reunite him with Sean McVay -- his former offensive coordinator in Washington -- without having to give up a first-rounder? Spitballing here, really.
Miami Dolphins
Current starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Signed through: 2024 (if fifth-year option is picked up)
Why is Miami on this list, while the Bengals and Chargers, both of whom also took a quarterback in the first round in 2020, are not? Because the situation with Tagovailoa feels different than those of No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow or 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert. Tagovailoa enters 2021 with a lot more to prove than those two guys since his rookie-year performance was far more uneven. Plus, we know the Dolphins have been eyeing the Deshaun Watson market and imagining life with higher-end options under center.
Tagovailoa could have the type of sophomore season that renders all of those conversations moot. But unless he does, the Dolphins' quarterback eye will continue to wander.
Most likely outcome: Tagovailoa returns.
Long shot: Deshaun Watson. Heck, they could still trade for him this year, if they could get any clarity on his legal situation and potential league discipline.
Minnesota Vikings
Current starter: Kirk Cousins
Signed through: 2022
Cousins is guaranteed $35 million in 2022 salary. This alone makes him likely to be the Vikings' quarterback next season. But is it impossible to imagine them moving on -- even eating some salary as part of a trade?
He and coach Mike Zimmer are at odds over the COVID-19 vaccine issue and its potential impact on the Vikings' season. There's a world in which Cousins plays pretty well this season, but the Vikings miss the playoffs and start implementing changes next offseason. And while he might not be everyone's dream come true at the position, there's always a team or two that takes on an imperfect solution to its QB problem.
The Vikings drafted Kellen Mond in the third round in April, but if they move on from Cousins next offseason, you'd have to think all options are on the table.
Most likely outcome: Cousins returns.
Long shot: Mond. Moving on from Cousins likely would signal a rebuild in Minnesota, so give the 2021 draft pick a shot.
New Orleans Saints
Current starter: Taysom Hill/Jameis Winston
Signed through: 2021 for both Hill and Winston
We still don't know who's going to play quarterback for the Saints this season. We do know they don't have any significant commitments to Winston or Hill beyond this year, and rookie Ian Book is a project/wild card.
If Russell Wilson is making noise about moving on from Seattle again next year, you can bet Sean Payton will remember that New Orleans was on the list of acceptable destinations Wilson's agent put out there earlier this offseason.
Most likely outcome: Winston is back for another year.
Long shot: Russell Wilson. Again, they were on his list!
New York Giants
Current starter: Daniel Jones
Signed through: 2023 (if fifth-year option is picked up)
It's a big year for Jones, a first-round pick in 2019. Yeah, life comes at you fast. Next May, the Giants will have to decide whether to pick up Jones' fifth-year option for 2023. That decision is likely to depend in large part on the way Jones performs in 2021.
If they come out of this year convinced that he is their long-term franchise quarterback, the Giants can use their two first-round picks to continue to build around him. If they come out of this year unconvinced on Jones, they can use those picks to draft a replacement.
Most likely outcome: Jones returns.
Long shot: Rattler, Howell or whoever is the top draft pick. A Jones flop in 2021 likely would be the end for general manager Dave Gettleman's time there -- though we've thought that before -- and a new GM would likely want to choose his own quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles
Current starter: Jalen Hurts
Signed through: 2023
Having moved on from Carson Wentz in February, the Eagles are (for now) turning things over to their second-year signal-caller Hurts. But if Wentz recovers from his foot injury quickly enough and plays 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps, the Eagles would have three first-round picks next year. That puts them in position to draft a quarterback, to trade for Watson or Wilson or Rodgers -- pretty much to do anything they want to do.
They've been connected with Watson for good reason and look like the team most likely to make a push once there's more certainty about Watson's situation. Hurts, a second-round pick last year, has been in similar situations before, and maybe he surprises them with a big year. But in the meantime, the Eagles are in a prime spot to go QB hunting in 2022, if not sooner.
Most likely outcome: Watson. There's no team better equipped to trade for him.
Long shot: Hurts, off a surprising monster season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Signed through: 2021
Roethlisberger's contract voids after this year. The Steelers could bring him back for his age-40 season, but there's just no way to know from here how likely that is. Assuming he moves on, the Steelers don't appear to have a slam-dunk solution in-house.
Mason Rudolph, a third-round pick in 2018, is the only one of their quarterbacks under contract beyond 2021, but that doesn't mean he's the automatic successor. They have 2019 first-rounder Dwayne Haskins in camp with a chance to show them something, and 2017 fourth-rounder Joshua Dobbs rounds out the current Pittsburgh quarterback room. The Steelers have given themselves a bunch of low-cost potential options, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of pursuing someone like Rodgers or Wilson, should either be available.
Most likely outcome: Haskins takes over.
Long shot: Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay, if trading him, would surely want him out of the NFC. Pittsburgh is not the rebuilding type, so a plug-and-play Hall of Famer would make sense.
Seattle Seahawks
Current starter: Russell Wilson
Signed through: 2023
Maybe it was all a bunch of noise. Maybe we overhyped it. Maybe, as Wilson and the Seahawks are trying to make us believe, he never even thought about leaving Seattle. But I keep coming back to the fact that his agent publicly listed four teams to which Wilson would like to be traded if the Seahawks decided to move on.
Seattle plays in a tough division. A rough season could put Wilson in a position to question more seriously whether and how long he wants to be there. In 2022, he will have two years left on his deal and no guaranteed money. A trade would be a lot easier financially for Seattle than it would have been this year, plus the Seahawks will have had a year to figure out where they go next at the position. Don't rule this out as a potential turnover spot until you see news of a Wilson contract extension.
Most likely outcome: Wilson returns.
Long shot: A draft pick with the first-rounder they got from trading Wilson in this hypothetical scenario. Their 2022 first-rounder belongs to the Jets as part of the Jamal Adams trade.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current starter: Tom Brady
Signed through: 2022
I mean, at some point he's going to retire, right?
Most likely outcome: Brady returns.
Long shot: The triumphant return of Jameis Winston as a free agent after a huge year in New Orleans. Hey, it could happen ...
Washington Football Team
Current starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Signed through: 2021
Had Washington been picking higher than No. 19 overall in the draft, it could have been the team that made a move for Justin Fields or Mac Jones in April. Ryan Fitzpatrick, signed in March, is not the long-term answer at the position, and the organization knows that.
No matter how this season goes, expect Washington to be in the quarterback market in 2022. The team is quite cognizant that this is a position it still needs to solidify.
Most likely outcome: A first-round rookie.
Long shot: Deshaun Watson. As with Rodgers and the Packers, the Texans likely would prefer to send Watson to a different conference.