With four-team divisions and only a handful of regular-season games compared to other pro sports, nobody does worst to first like the NFL. Since the league moved to 32 teams and the eight-division format in 2002, 19 teams have gone from the bottom of the division in one season to the top of the division the following year. That's 19 teams in 19 years. Do some quick math and you'll find that means we can expect an average of one team per year to go from the bottom of the division to the top. (I'm not including five teams that finished only third in their divisions because they won tiebreakers.)
Even that number undersells how frequently teams rise up from the doldrums of the NFL. The 2012 Chiefs finished with the worst record in football; after hiring Andy Reid, they went from 2-14 to 11-5 and made it to the playoffs the following season. The 2018 49ers finished 4-12 -- the second-worst record in football then -- but the only team worse than Kyle Shanahan's happened to be the Cardinals, so the Niners finished third in the NFC West. One year later, they went 13-3 and made it to Super Bowl LIV.
Who will be that team in 2021? Let's run through the NFL's eight last-place finishers from last season and rank them in order of likelihood that they'll go worst to first in 2021. First, though, I'll start by going through six common trends that have popped up in looking through the résumés of teams that have done this in the past.
Jump to a team:
ATL | CIN | DET | DEN
JAX | NYJ | PHI | SF
What makes teams go from worst to first?
They make a change at quarterback. Many of these teams didn't run it back with the same quarterback from year to year. Several added a new one and upgraded dramatically, including the 2006 Saints with Drew Brees and the 2016 Cowboys with Dak Prescott. Other teams flipped a QB rotation or had a guy who was a backup on the prior year's team assume a much larger role, as Washington did with Kirk Cousins in 2015. As you might suspect, the most significant driver of a worst-to-first turnaround is significantly better quarterback play.
They make changes to their coaching staff. It's not quite as common as quarterback changes, but teams that finish last usually try to shake up their coaches. Several teams hired entirely new staffs, including the 2018 Bears with Matt Nagy & Co. Others thrive after making a change at coordinator, as the 2009 Saints famously did after Sean Payton helped pay out of pocket to add Gregg Williams as his defensive coordinator.
They were unlucky the prior year. It's not easy to finish last in the NFL. Being bad might not be enough; sometimes, a team has to be bad and have some breaks go against it. Our candidates underperformed their Pythagorean expectation by an average of one win in seasons in which they finished last, which usually means they struggled in one-score games. A few of them were able to turn things around and regressed way past the mean, outperforming their Pythagorean expectation by 0.8 wins in the campaigns in which they finished first.
Take the 2004 and 2005 Bucs. Tampa posted 7.9 expected wins in 2004 and 8.9 expected wins in 2005, suggesting that it was roughly the same team in terms of level of play. In 2004, though, the Bucs went 2-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer and finished 5-11. The following year, they went 6-3 in those same games and finished 11-5. They were better in 2005, but they weren't six games better. (They fell back to 4-12 in 2006.)
They had terrible turnover ratios. It's virtually impossible for a team to win consistently with a subpar turnover differential. The good news for teams that run up an ugly turnover ratio is that it's also difficult to be that bad in the same category year after year. Teams that post turnover margins of minus-15 or worse often improve the following season, sometimes dramatically. This helped spur worst-to-first runs for the 2013 Eagles (who went from minus-24 to plus-12) and 2016 Cowboys (minus-22 to plus-5).
Their schedule got easier. One of the few benefits of finishing last in the NFL is that a team gets to play what is typically the easiest schedule in its division. Teams that finished fourth used to get two games against fellow cellar-dwellers, while teams that finished first go up against the teams that led their respective divisions. The 2006 Buccaneers faced the third-toughest schedule in the league, per Football Outsiders, and finished last, but the 2007 edition helped drive a rise back up to the top of the NFC South by facing the league's third-easiest slate.
With the league moving to a 17-game schedule this season, teams in the basement will get a third game against opponents that finished last, making their schedules even easier and creating a larger disparity between teams that finished first and last.
The rest of the division wasn't very good or declined noticeably. It's easier to finish first if a team doesn't have much competition. The 2011 Broncos went 8-8 and squeaked out the tightest division race in league history by winning a three-way tiebreaker with the Chargers and Raiders and finishing ahead of the 7-9 Chiefs. The 2017 Jags were in a division in which the three teams ahead of them all went 9-7 or 8-8 before seeing two of their starting quarterbacks (Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck) deal with season-ending injuries.
Of course, the classic example of a team winning a division because there wasn't much competition is the one that went from worst to first last season: the 7-9 Washington Football Team. It fit many of the criteria listed above. Washington made changes at quarterback (Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins to a variety of passers, most noticeably Alex Smith, who won five of the team's seven games). Washington brought in coach Ron Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, regressed toward the mean on third down and jumped from 27th to third in defensive DVOA. Throw in the league's second-easiest schedule, a division in which Dak Prescott missed most of the year and Carson Wentz fell apart, and you get a title at 7-9.
Who will be this year's Washington? Let's start with the least likely candidates and work our way up to the top. I'll include each team's chances of winning the division, per ESPN's recently released Football Power Index (FPI) projections for the 2021 season.
8. Detroit Lions
Chances of winning the NFC North, per FPI: 3.5%
The Lions are rebuilding under new management, with coach Dan Campbell and first-year general manager Brad Holmes trading quarterback Matthew Stafford for two first-round picks and Jared Goff. It's also fair to note that they're hardly the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16. Goff was an average-or-better quarterback in his four years with Sean McVay in L.A. This Detroit team projects to have a good offensive line after using the No. 7 overall pick on Penei Sewell in April. Its defense finished last in virtually every category last season under defensive guru Matt Patricia, and it's nearly impossible for it to be that bad again in 2021.
Better, of course, doesn't mean that the Lions actually project to be good on defense. Goff is going from working with some of the best weapons in football with the Rams to a unit I ranked 31st earlier this summer. The Lions are also in a division with a Packers team that went 13-3 each of the past two seasons, while both the Bears and Vikings expect to be around the playoff picture; Detroit is expected to face FPI's fifth-toughest schedule.
Other teams have made unexpected playoff runs at the start of their rebuilds, as the Bills did under Sean McDermott in 2017, but they didn't make it to first place. It's not impossible to imagine any of the other teams in the NFC North imploding, but it would take all three melting down for the Lions to have a path to a 2021 title.
7. New York Jets
Chances of winning the AFC East, per FPI: 2.3%
Only the Texans have less of a chance of claiming their division than the Jets, who are behind three teams that FPI projects to post a winning record this season. The good news for the Jets is that they've made changes in key roles by swapping out coach Adam Gase for Robert Saleh and quarterback Sam Darnold for rookie Zach Wilson. It remains to be seen whether Saleh or Wilson turn out to be difference-makers in their new gigs, but Jets fans would argue that they can't be much worse than the people they were replacing.
Beyond that, the arguments for the Jets aren't strong. They somehow posted an even turnover margin in 2020; while 2-14 teams can be unlucky, this was the worst team in the league by DVOA and the second-worst team by FPI. New York's schedule will be easier, with FPI pegging it for the 10th-easiest slate after facing the league's fifth-toughest schedule, but there are major questions about every level of the defense, and we know how quarterbacks can struggle with the Shanahan/Kubiak offense it will be running before breaking out in Year 2.
The Jets should be more interesting in 2021, but a worst-to-first run seems unlikely.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Chances of winning the AFC North, per FPI: 4.6%
In a different division, the Bengals would have a better chance of making it out of the basement. There's excitement about an offense built around second-year quarterback Joe Burrow and playmakers Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati has made repeated forays into free agency over the past two years to add defenders, including edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, defensive tackle D.J. Reader and cornerback Trae Waynes. The Bengals have been better than their record in both 2019 and 2020; they could be closer to a breakout than most people think, especially if Burrow looks like the uber-prospect we saw in his stunning 2019 season at LSU.
Two things stand in their way. One is Burrow, who has struggled badly in camp after returning from the serious left knee injury he suffered as a rookie. The other problem is the rest of the AFC North, which went a combined 34-13 a year ago. FPI projects the Steelers to fall just below .500 this season, but the Browns and Ravens are still expected to be 10-win teams, which would leave Cincinnati in rough shape.
This would seem to be beyond the Bengals, but remember that Burrow went from looking like a late-round pick to a no-doubter No. 1 overall selection in one year at school.
5. Denver Broncos
Chances of winning the AFC West, per FPI: 12.9%
Speaking of things standing in the way of an unlikely title, any conversation about the Broncos winning the AFC West would seemingly start and end with Patrick Mahomes, who has gone 38-8 as a starter and led the Chiefs to three consecutive division titles. Kansas City is projected to win this division 71.8% of the time, the highest rate of any team.
Stranger things have happened, though. I'll repeat the story of the most unlikely division title in league history: In 2007, the Patriots went 16-0, finishing 15 games ahead of the Dolphins. The Patriots were lucky in close games and the Dolphins were unlucky, but that wasn't going to make up a 15-game difference. You might remember what happened next: The Patriots lost Tom Brady to a torn left ACL in the 2008 opener, while the Dolphins rode salary-cap casualty Chad Pennington to one of just two 16-game seasons. Miami ended New England's 21-game regular-season winning streak when it introduced the wildcat formation in Week 3 and eventually won a three-way tiebreaker at 11-5 to claim the AFC East.
Nobody is rooting for a Mahomes injury, and even if he did miss most of the season, the Broncos would still be expected to finish behind Justin Herbert and the Chargers. With pass-rusher Von Miller returning and the weapons the Broncos have on offense, though, all it would take for Denver to push toward contention is either an unexpectedly impressive season from Drew Lock or a steady campaign from Teddy Bridgewater.
Still, they probably won't again post a turnover differential of minus-17, and they're going from facing the league's fourth-toughest schedule to what is projected as the league's easiest set of opponents in 2021. In a different division (and with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback), the Broncos would be No. 1 on this list. As it stands, their path is a lot tougher.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Chances of winning the NFC South, per FPI: 6.6%
The Falcons -- the only team on this list that got a full season from its quarterback in 2020 and expects to start that same quarterback in 2021 -- need to find their improvements in other places. That starts with their coaching changes; they're counting on first-time head coach Arthur Smith to produce a high-efficiency attack and veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to get the most out of a unit that struggled for consistency.
Atlanta should be better at closing out close games in 2021, if only because it might have been the worst team in recent NFL history at finishing out victories last season. The Falcons should have been a 7.6-win team based on point differential, and DVOA rated Atlanta as the 17th-best team in the league, just ahead of the Browns and Raiders.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, they're stuck in a division with two teams that each won at least 11 games last season. One of those teams is the Saints, who lost Drew Brees to retirement and aren't anywhere near as deep as they were a year ago. The other one is the Buccaneers, who have brought back every single person of consequence from their Super Bowl-winning squad. Counting on Tom Brady to suddenly get old and fall off a cliff hasn't worked well for teams for the past 20 years, but the Falcons probably need that to happen if they want to win the South in 2021.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Chances of winning the NFC East, per FPI: 11.7%
Philly fits just about every one of the criteria I posted above. As I wrote about a couple of weeks ago, Philadelphia's offense should be better -- and healthier -- than it was in 2020. The Eagles turned the ball over 29 times and posted a turnover margin of minus-10; they should be better in both categories in 2021. They'll have a new primary quarterback in Jalen Hurts and a new coach in Nick Sirianni. They were also unlucky last season, going 3-6-1 in one-score games.
The best argument for the Eagles is that the competition isn't likely to be any good. In a year in which just about everything went wrong for the organization, they still came within 2.5 games of winning the NFC East. They actually finished with the 11th-toughest schedule in the league, per FPI, but they're expected to have the sixth-easiest slate in football this season.
FPI has the Cowboys as significant favorites to win the division -- with a total of just 8.9 wins. If Hurts is better than expected, the Eagles will have a viable shot at competing for a title.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Chances of winning the NFC West, per FPI: 33.2%
If FPI had to pick a team to go from worst to first this season, the algorithm would pick the 49ers, whose chances of winning their division in 2021 are projected to be nearly three times as high as any of these teams that finished last. It's easy to understand why, given that they were in the Super Bowl in 2019 before being derailed by what felt like a curse's worth of injuries last season. A healthier team and the possibility of turning to No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance as opposed to Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard at quarterback if Jimmy Garoppolo gets hurt should lead to a higher floor to go along with that Super Bowl ceiling.
They're not my top choice, but Niners fans have good reason to be optimistic. Their quarterback play should improve. San Francisco was 1-3 in one-score games a year ago and turned the ball over 31 times en route to a minus-11 turnover margin. The latter figure alone might have sunk Kyle Shanahan's team, as it was 5-1 when it won the turnover battle and 1-9 when it did not, with its only win coming against the Jets.
I'm a little concerned about the 49ers relying on players with significant injury histories to play essential roles on their roster, but I do think they'll improve in 2021. The only reason they're not No. 1 for me is the quality of their division. The Seahawks and Rams were both playoff teams in 2020, and even the Cardinals finished 8-8 in third place. Each of San Francisco's divisional rivals finished in the top 13 in DVOA.
Then again, the same could be said about the 49ers, who were 11th in DVOA even amid all their injuries. FPI believes in the Niners' level of play and is extremely optimistic about their schedule clearing up. Last season, FPI estimated that they played the league's second-toughest slate. This time around, though, they are expected to face the fourth-easiest run of opponents in football. If they get healthy and the schedule gets much easier, the Niners should be right in the mix atop the NFC West. I wouldn't fault anyone for making them their top pick to go worst to first.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Chances of winning the AFC South, per FPI: 8.4%
Perhaps foolishly, I'm opting for the worst team in football from 2020. The Jaguars came back to win their opener against the Colts and then lost their final 15 games. It wasn't a pretty season, but they were better than their record, posting 3.9 expected wins while playing competitive games against teams such as the Packers, Browns and Vikings. They weren't a good team by any means, but they were probably better on a snap-by-snap basis than, say, the Jets.
Finishing with the worst record in football netted the Jaguars the No. 1 overall pick and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, regarded in some circles as the best QB prospect to come out of school since Andrew Luck. Luck, you might remember, helped immediately turn around a Colts team that had gone 2-14 the prior year while turning to Curtis Painter as their primary quarterback. Gardner Minshew, a rookie sixth-round pick in 2019, was fine in eight starts last season, but the Jags turned their other eight games over to Mike Glennon and Jake Luton. A full season from Lawrence -- while holding Minshew in reserve if Lawrence gets hurt -- means they should have much better quarterback play than your typical last-place team in 2021.
I would be most optimistic about the Jags because I'm not enthused about the rest of the AFC South. The Texans are on another planet. The Colts are already down their two most important players on offense in quarterback Carson Wentz and guard Quenton Nelson and are relying on rookie edge rusher Kwity Paye to be an immediate contributor. The Titans are the AFC equivalent of the Cowboys, a top-heavy team that needs its handful of stars to stay healthy. Running back Derrick Henry's workload suggests that he's extremely unlikely to continue producing at the same level in 2021. The Jags project to face the league's eighth-easiest schedule this season.
Admittedly, the Colts and Titans could take a step backward and still project to be better than the Jaguars, but in researching for this piece, I saw example after example of how much quicker organizations turn things around than it might seem. The Niners were a mess under three different coaches before Shanahan took them from 4-12 to 13-3 and the Super Bowl. The Saints signed Brees and turned their entire franchise around overnight. Washington drafted Robert Griffin III and turned into one of the league's scariest offenses.
The Jaguars just added a quarterback we can expect to make an immediate impact and have a handful of other factors pointing in the right direction. They've got the longest way to go to get out of the cellar, but they have the best shot of making a shocking leap atop their division in 2021.