Every year, we get new reminders for just how important it is to surround your quarterback with the right talent. Just take the quarterbacks from the class of 2018. While Cleveland's Baker Mayfield was thriving in 2020 behind a great offensive line and with the right coaching staff, Sam Darnold's third and final season with the Jets was a waste of time. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson spent most of a playoff loss to the Bills patiently waiting for any one of his receivers to get open, while Buffalo's Josh Allen enjoyed having Stefon Diggs on his side of the field.
Of course, while Super Bowl LV came down to a dismal Chiefs offensive line, let's consider who got there. Kansas City has surrounded Patrick Mahomes with some of the best weapons in football for each of his first three seasons as a starter. Tom Brady looked like a new man in Tampa Bay, where he went from playing with a tired group of receivers in New England to an embarrassment of riches in Florida. This stuff matters.
Let's do something that doesn't really matter but is still fun anyway: We'll rank each of the league's 32 teams by their skill-position talent without including the impact of the quarterback, offensive line or scheme. That's a very important caveat! Imagine if you took each team's running backs and receivers and dropped them into an average offense with an average coach and an average starting quarterback. Who would have the best offense in football?
Here are a few other things to keep in mind before we get started:
This is about only 2021 performance. We're not considering a player's contract status, cap hit or long-term prognosis. We want to field the best possible group of weapons for a 17-game season in 2021. Since we don't know how rookies will turn out, we're using draft status and history to inform their chances of making an impact.
Wide receivers are weighted more heavily than running backs or tight ends. The league values wide receivers by giving players at the top of that market much larger deals than their friends at running back and tight end. The top average annual salary for a running back is Christian McCaffrey's, at $16 million per season. At tight end, George Kittle is tops at $15 million. Twelve different wideouts are on multiyear deals averaging more than $16 million per year. As a result, I've weighted wideout talent as more significant than similarly gifted players elsewhere, although there's a bigger drop-off between the top tight ends and the players in the second and third tiers at that position.
Not everybody who was considered gets mentioned. I focused on a team's top six weapons on offense and used depth beyond that top six as a tiebreaker. In the interest of making it possible to finish this piece before the season begins, though, I'll only be mentioning the most notable or interesting (to me) players on each roster.
We'll start with the bottom of the barrel and work our way to the best group of weapons in football. You can probably guess where we'll begin:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Houston Texans
The Texans might rank 32nd in a lot of categories by the time the season is over. The move to swap DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson and a second-round pick was a disaster on its face and doesn't look much better a year later, with Johnson ranking 41st in success rate in his first season with the Texans. Former Houston coach/general manager Bill O'Brien's swap of a second-rounder for Brandin Cooks looks much better, with the oft-traded wideout producing a 1,150-yard campaign in 2020, but the decision to sign Randall Cobb was even worse than it seemed at the time.
In many cases, the names are bigger than the games on what amounts to a great fantasy football team from 2016. New general manager Nick Caserio signed veterans such as Rex Burkhead, Donte Moncrief and Mark Ingram this offseason to fill out the roster this spring, with Phillip Lindsay as one of the few younger additions to the fold. This is a skill-position group of stopgaps for a franchise stuck in neutral.
31. Detroit Lions
The Lions are at least trying to generate future capital and generally go with younger players. They chose a 2022 third-round compensatory pick over possibly franchising Kenny Golladay, and while that pick might be more valuable to the organization in the long haul than a player who turns 28 in November, the Lions have left themselves with the worst wide receivers room in the league. Nominal top options Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams are both best served as the third or fourth member of a passing attack while running 10-15 go routes per game. Fourth-rounder Amon-Ra St. Brown would be depth-chart fodder in some organizations; here, he might have a chance to lead all wideouts in targets.
Things are better elsewhere in the lineup. Tight end T.J. Hockenson isn't in the top tier at his position, but he finished as the TE5 in fantasy football last season and could amass a preposterous target share from Jared Goff this season. D'Andre Swift showed promise after the Lions finally stopped giving the ball to Adrian Peterson, but the new regime shows little faith in the 2020 35th overall pick, having already imported Jamaal Williams before bringing in Todd Gurley for a visit. Williams was effective for the Packers last season, but new coach Dan Campbell & Co. need to see what they have with Swift. Politely, I will suggest that doing so will not cost the Lions any chance of going to the postseason.
30. New York Jets
General manager Joe Douglas' goal was to get 2021 No. 2 pick Zach Wilson more weapons than his predecessor, Sam Darnold. At wide receiver, the Jets have certainly succeeded. Corey Davis might never live up to being the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, but he racked up 984 yards in 14 games for a run-first Titans offense last season and should be the focal point of a similar play-action scheme for New York this season. Second-rounder Elijah Moore is getting as much hype as any rookie in the NFL this offseason, and veterans Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder are solid options in the slot.
The problem is, well, everything else. Chris Herndon's expected breakout season was DOA in 2020, and while I like the addition of former Bills tight end Tyler Kroft, the Jets aren't thrilling at tight end. They're totally anonymous at running back, where fourth-rounder Michael Carter might win the job by default ahead of Tevin Coleman and La'Mical Perine. It's probably the right idea to save at tailback for a team running the Shanahan/Kubiak offense, but it's hard to get enthused about the backs on new coach Robert Saleh's depth chart.
29. Philadelphia Eagles
The biggest drop-off on this year's list belongs to the Eagles, who will be relying on back-to-back first-rounders at wide receiver to kick-start their offense. I'm wildly excited to watch DeVonta Smith after the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner looked like the best player on the field for most of the College Football Playoff, but if Smith isn't an immediate superstar, this could threaten Detroit's receiving corps. It's way too early to give up on 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor, but the TCU product was anonymous as a rookie. Behind him is disappointing second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward, who the Eagles seemingly plan on moving on from every year, only for Ward to be their No. 1 wideout by mid-November. That can't happen again.
While there are big names elsewhere for the Eagles, we haven't seen steady production out of either running back Miles Sanders or tight end Dallas Goedert. Sanders was efficient as a runner last season, but he struggled with fumbles and had no impact as a receiver. A slight uptick in Goedert's numbers was offset by the fact that he missed the better part of five games with injuries before a Week 17 white flag inactive. Zach Ertz is nominally included here, but he's unlikely to be on Philadelphia's Week 1 roster. There are plenty of possibilities here if the young draftees take a step forward, but seeing will be believing in Philly.
28. Indianapolis Colts
New Colts quarterback Carson Wentz will leave behind those Eagles in 2021, but while he's blessed with an impressive offensive line in Indianapolis, this is another team counting on its young players to develop. The most prominent veteran at the skill-position spots here is T.Y. Hilton, who didn't bounce back in 2020 after injuries impacted his 2019 season. 2019 second-round pick Parris Campbell has basically lost his first two seasons to injuries, with a knee issue costing him the final 14 games of 2020. The hope is that Michael Pittman Jr. breaks through as a No. 1 receiver, but even if he does, will there be much around the 2020 second-rounder? Tight end Jack Doyle has been around seemingly since the Peyton Manning era, but is Mo Alie-Cox going to have a Logan Thomas-style breakout in 2021?
Seven picks after the Colts drafted Pittman, they used the 41st selection on another key contributor in running back Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product broke out over the final six games of 2020, finishing second among all backs with 741 rushing yards over that time frame. While 253 of those yards came in a Week 17 romp over a Jags team that might as well have been on the beach already, the one-two punch of Taylor and Nyheim Hines works. The story at receiver, at least for now, is more about hope than anything else.
27. New England Patriots
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones' weapons at Alabama would have come in ahead of the players he'll line up alongside with the Patriots in 2021. Coach Bill Belichick invested heavily in adding skill-position talent through free agency, but little has been settled. Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are major upgrades at tight end, but neither has ever hit 700 receiving yards even once in their pro careers. Receiver Nelson Agholor's breakout season with the Raiders sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his career, and it still came with one of the highest drop rates in football. Kendrick Bourne is a solid pro, but he plays the same slot role as Jakobi Meyers, who was the one promising receiver the Patriots ran out last season.
The Patriots are unquestionably better than they were on the field a year ago at these positions, but the No. 21 ranking from last year reflected cautious optimism about veteran Julian Edelman (now retired), 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry (requesting a trade) and 2018 first-rounder Sony Michel (forever battling injuries). New England won't run out as many replacement-level players on offense in 2021, but it's difficult to find a player in this offense who has a Pro Bowl ceiling outside of perhaps Henry.
26. Chicago Bears
At least for one season, Allen Robinson's career of playing with overmatched, desperate quarterbacks could come to an end. Justin Fields is, at the very least, a better prospect than any of the passers Robinson has worked with regularly during his NFL career, and it should hopefully unlock a new level from the franchise-tagged receiver. The depth chart behind Robinson is scarily thin, as 2020 fifth-rounder Darnell Mooney attracted 98 targets almost by default a year ago. Veteran tight end Jimmy Graham was actually more of a force in the red zone than we would have expected in an eight-touchdown campaign, but the Bears desperately need Mooney and second-year tight end Cole Kmet to look like viable NFL starters with a new quarterback in the fold.
David Montgomery's impact depends on where you're looking. If you squint and look at a five-game sample in the second half of 2020, you could get excited about a running back who racked up 692 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns behind a middling offensive line. The rest of Montgomery's career to this point has been milquetoast, though, and for a player who doesn't really have the speed to take many long runs to the house, he can't rank 36th in the league in success rate. This season will determine whether Montgomery is a back worth committing to in the long term or just a guy who breaks more tackles than the average runner.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 rank: 31 | 2019 Rank: 32
The big upgrade the Jags made this offseason isn't included as part of this analysis, but No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence won't lack for weapons in his rookie year. There might not be a No. 1 wideout in the mix, but D.J. Chark looked like he was on his way to becoming that guy in 2019, and Laviska Shenault should benefit from playing for a better offensive staff in 2021. Marvin Jones should be a consistent No. 3 target, although it took three 110-plus-yard games last December to get the veteran's 2020 numbers up to respectable. There's absolutely nothing in the cupboard at tight end, so expect plenty of three-wide sets from new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and coach Urban Meyer.
Undrafted free agent James Robinson came out of nowhere and was a totally viable starting running back, which is why the decision to draft Travis Etienne in Round 1 in April felt frustrating. Leaving the draft capital aside, though, a Robinson-Etienne one-two punch could be impressive. I'm not sure I buy the argument that Lawrence somehow needs a former Clemson teammate to succeed when he's likely going to be catching screens and checkdowns, but Etienne was a game-breaker in college (his 78 career touchdowns from scrimmage is tied for fourth in FBS history). If he delivers on that Alvin Kamara-like promise, the Jags will continue rising up the charts.
24. Washington Football Team
There were signs of life around Terry McLaurin last season! At running back, Antonio Gibson was a Week 1 starter and proved to be an effective player despite his lack of experience, averaging 4.7 yards per carry while finishing sixth in the league in DVOA. The other surprising seasons weren't quite as impressive; J.D. McKissic's 80-catch effort was mostly a product of Alex Smith tossing the former Seahawks tailback checkdowns, while Logan Thomas ranked 35th among tight ends in yards per target. They were both more effective in fantasy football than the real thing.
All of those players return to the fold, though, and Washington supplemented this group by bringing in Curtis Samuel, who produced 1,051 yards from scrimmage for Carolina a year ago. Samuel should be more efficient and explosive with his touches than either McKissic or Thomas were in 2020. The more Washington can concentrate the football into the hands of its three top weapons, the better it will be on offense. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had no qualms about tossing the ball up to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in 2019.
23. Atlanta Falcons
2020 rank: 12 | 2019 Rank: 10
As it turns out, trading Julio Jones has deleterious effects on your spot in these weapons rankings. Atlanta still has one star at wide receiver in Calvin Ridley, but if Ridley's foot issues linger into the season, the depth chart at wideout would be absolutely horrific. Russell Gage was a perfectly acceptable third wideout behind Jones and Ridley, but casting him as the No. 1 with Olamide Zaccheaus or Christian Blake as the No. 2 would be the worst set of starting wideouts we've seen in the NFL in several years.
New coach Arthur Smith, who was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, might lean more heavily on 12 personnel, and Falcons fans will rightfully expect No. 4 overall pick Kyle Pitts to be a star in his first NFL season. I'm optimistic about Pitts' long-term chances, but history tells us to be skeptical of even the best tight ends during their rookie years. There's no Derrick Henry in this lineup, either, as Mike Davis hasn't been much more than a replacement-level NFL back and will need to stay healthy to keep the Falcons from going down to one. The Ridley and Pitts duo is a great long-term start, but 2021 could get ugly quickly.
22. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders keep hanging around this spot while they try to find an identity at wide receiver. Of course, their No. 1 weapon is a true superstar in tight end Darren Waller, who followed a 1,145-yard campaign in 2019 with a 1,196-yard season. The former Ravens draftee needed 28 more targets to get those yards, but he did produce nine touchdowns after somehow racking up only three in 2019. Having this sort of advantage at tight end helps push the Raiders up past teams with better wideouts.
With all due respect to wide receiver John Brown and running back Kenyan Drake, Vegas' ability to move out of this range comes down to its first-rounders. The organization brought in Drake because coach Jon Gruden clearly doesn't trust Josh Jacobs in a three-down role, as the starting running back played nearly 69% of the snaps on first and second down but just over 30% of the third-down snaps. Rookie first-round pick Henry Ruggs never seemed to get going in Gruden's offense, as he followed an 118-yard performance in the upset win over the Chiefs with 275 yards over the ensuing 12 weeks. Injuries hampered Ruggs, but the Raiders don't have an impressive player development record under Gruden. If that changes, their players have the potential to push this team higher.
21. Miami Dolphins
Last year in this space, we finished the Dolphins blurb by suggesting that they would add at least one and possibly two starting wide receivers after the 2020 season. Enter Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. The duo should be massive upgrades on Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant, but Waddle is a rookie and Fuller's injury history is as significant as any player this side of Jason Verrett. In terms of their 2021 production, Miami's wideout core is about as high-risk, high-reward as it gets.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins aren't quite as exciting. Mike Gesicki is a tight end in name only, as 80% of his snaps and more than 89% of his targets came with the 6-foot-6 playmaker split out or operating out of the slot. Waddle and Fuller are likely going to take away a large share of his targets. Running back Myles Gaskin was an impressive 12th in Success Rate behind a middling offensive line, but a dearth of big plays left him below average by both DVOA and yards per carry. Speed wasn't supposed to be a problem for Gaskin as he entered the NFL, so if that was just randomness and the long runs come in 2021, the Dolphins could have a more promising situation here than it might seem. Given that Miami reportedly wanted Javonte Williams in the second round, its front office might not feel that way.
20. Los Angeles Chargers
As impressive as Justin Herbert's rookie season was, it's hard to point to one of his weapons as having a similarly exciting campaign. Keenan Allen's 100 catches generated just 992 yards, with the veteran fumbling three times and dealing with a hamstring issue. Mike Williams had his usual mix of mammoth games (wins over the Saints and Chiefs) and whisper-quiet performances (six games of 26 yards or fewer). Hunter Henry, who left for the Patriots in free agency, averaged under 44 yards per game. Austin Ekeler, coming off a breakout season, missed the better part of seven games with a hamstring injury and scored just three times. In true Philip Rivers fashion, Herbert coaxed the occasional big game out of guys on the bottom of the depth chart: Tyron Johnson, Jalen Guyton and Donald Parham.
Now, with Herbert entering his second season and Joe Lombardi taking over as offensive coordinator, Los Angeles' star weapons need to play their part. Allen can't average fewer than 10 yards per reception again. Ekeler doesn't need to be Derrick Henry, but he has to be effective across 200-plus touches. Williams, who is in a contract year, needs to put together his first consistent season as a pro. And with Henry gone, the Chargers need to find a solution at tight end between Parham and Jared Cook. On paper, they should have more than enough talent around their quarterback. Nothing good, however, ever comes from a sentence that starts with "On paper, the Chargers ..."
19. New Orleans Saints
The Saints' situation at the skill-position spots is a microcosm for the moves they had to make to clear out nearly $100 million in cap space this offseason. Are their stars still here? Yes. Sean Payton's two best weapons are Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and they're back for another go-round. Are the pieces around them as good as they were over the past couple of years? Absolutely not. Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook were both released without veteran replacements, leaving New Orleans to be dependent on Adam Trautman, Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway to step in and play more meaningful roles.
As long as Kamara and Thomas are two of the best players at their respective positions, the Saints should be fine. Should we at least be a little concerned about Thomas? The star wideout was sidelined by a high ankle sprain for most of 2020, and while he came back during the second half, he was placed on injured reserve again in December before an anonymous playoff loss to the Bucs. We've seen in previous years both superstar receivers (Odell Beckham Jr.) and older wideouts (Mohamed Sanu and Roddy White) fall off after dealing with high ankle sprains. Thomas should be able to make a full recovery and return toward the top of the receiving charts, but I'll feel better about his future if we see the old Thomas early and often in 2021.
18. Arizona Cardinals
For now, there's DeAndre Hopkins, and then there's everyone else. The Cardinals might hope that Chase Edmonds is a 1A back or James Conner looks better outside of Pittsburgh's putrid rushing attack or that A.J. Green isn't done or that rookie Rondale Moore gives them the spark of speed they desperately needed at the end of last season, but realistically, this is an offense carried by Nuk and Kyler Murray. Hopkins was everything the Cardinals could have wished for last season, as the superstar wideout played 92% of the offensive snaps and brought in 1,407 receiving yards.
Everyone else in the offense, though, is a question mark. Christian Kirk has never taken the leap some expected, although he should have the opportunity to spend more time in the slot in 2021. Green looked past his best in Cincinnati. Moore is an electric playmaker who wasn't able to stay healthy at Purdue. Edmonds and Conner could be a great one-two punch or both spend the entire year struggling with injuries. Hopkins should make everyone else's job easier, but that wasn't enough to get Larry Fitzgerald, Kenyan Drake or Andy Isabella going last season. With a soft reboot around Hopkins in 2021, the lesser Cardinals have to hope that they can take advantage of the opportunities afforded them by the attention on him and Murray.
17. Denver Broncos
What looked like a cast of budding stars heading into 2020 didn't pan out. Courtland Sutton tore an ACL in the opener, and while Tim Patrick had a quietly solid season in Sutton's absence, it took a Week 17 performance against a lowly Raiders defense to get Jerry Jeudy's rookie numbers looking decent. Rookie receiver KJ Hamler was mostly quiet, and while Melvin Gordon averaged a superficially impressive 4.6 yards per carry, he was 44th in success rate, averaged just 4.9 yards per catch as a receiver and fumbled four times. The Gordon signing also marginalized Phillip Lindsay, who got hurt and then left this offseason.
The potential for a juggernaut -- at least in terms of weapons -- is still here. Sutton is back, and after struggling with drops last season, Jeudy should take a step forward and improve his 46% catch rate in Year 2. Second-round pick Javonte Williams and even former Vikings backup Mike Boone should push Gordon. Tight end Noah Fant, a first-round pick in 2019, improved last season and has the skill set to go further. The pieces are here, but unless the Broncos get a breakout season from Drew Lock or trade for Aaron Rodgers, we might not get to see just how talented their weapons really are.
16. New York Giants
For as many promising pieces as the Giants sport, the offense doesn't add up to the sum of its parts. As exciting as Saquon Barkley might look on a highlight reel, the former Penn State star has now missed most of one season with a torn ACL and hobbled through a second with a high ankle sprain. Kenny Golladay, the team's new addition at wideout, missed most of 2020 with hip and hamstring injuries. Darius Slayton repeated his 2019 numbers, but he did so on 176 more snaps. Tight end Evan Engram continues to struggle with drops and averaged just 6.0 yards per target last season. First-round pick Kadarius Toney could be a valuable weapon in the slot, but his presence conflicts with Sterling Shepard's best spot, just as was the case with Golden Tate two years ago.
All of these pieces are being put into an offense by an organization whose espoused philosophy is running the football, which is one of the reasons why the Giants are so frustrating to watch. There's top-six talent here on paper, but counting on everyone to stay healthy and be used properly seems to be too big of an ask. At the very least, they desperately need a healthy, productive season from Barkley -- who said Monday that he's uncertain he'll be ready for Week 1 -- before figuring out whether they want to give the 2018 No. 2 pick a contract extension next spring.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have become a wideout factory in recent years, so perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised when third-round pick Chase Claypool immediately established himself as an impact contributor. Claypool slowed down in the second half, but the Notre Dame product finished with 873 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. It looked like the Steelers were going to expand his role as a replacement for the departing JuJu Smith-Schuster, but a depressed market at receiver and the power of voidable years allowed the Steelers to bring back Smith-Schuster on a one-year deal. Pittsburgh then presumably upgraded by replacing running back James Conner with first-round pick Najee Harris.
So, why did they fall back two spots from where they were a year ago? I'm not as optimistic about Smith-Schuster, who had one of the most spectacular sophomore seasons in league history and then followed it with an injury-hit 2019. He didn't return to his 2018 self in 2020 and averaged just 8.6 yards per reception while fumbling three times. Diontae Johnson needed 144 targets to get to 923 receiving yards; to contrast, Calvin Ridley got to 1,374 yards on 143 targets. Some of that can be pinned on Ben Roethlisberger's arm, but just look at San Francisco's wideouts, who were thrown shorter passes and averaged more yards after the catch. If we somehow get the Smith-Schuster from 2018, the Claypool second-year breakout and the Harris who looked unstoppable at Alabama all at the same time, the Steelers could make this ranking look silly.
14. Baltimore Ravens
After watching Lamar Jackson fruitlessly wait for receivers to come open in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens acted and added Sammy Watkins and first-round pick Rashod Bateman to their receiving corps. The hoped-for leaps forward from Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews simply didn't come; the talented tight end seems to be better playing somewhere around 50% of the offensive snaps, while Brown hasn't been able to consistently make his explosiveness pay at the NFL level. They still may have another gear, but now, the Ravens won't be as dependent on Andrews and Brown to be present and impactful.
And while they get help from the threat of Jackson as a runner, the one-two punch of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards gives the Ravens one of the league's better halfback combos. Dobbins is coming off what might be viewed as a historic rookie season in some ways, as you don't see many runners who take the ball often (134 times) and finish the season with a yards per carry starting with the number "6." Just two backs since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger have posted 100-plus carries and averaged 6.0 or more yards per attempt as a rookie: Dobbins and Alvin Kamara. Dobbins isn't in Kamara's league as a receiver, but if Bateman or Watkins help spur the downfield passing attack, the Ravens won't need him to be.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
I'm always a little skeptical about the impact of rookies when I make these rankings, but it's not hard to be more optimistic about Ja'Marr Chase than the vast majority of other first-year wideouts. The scary thing for the AFC North is that Chase might not even be the team's top target as a rookie, given that Tee Higgins was wildly impressive while Joe Burrow was on the field and Tyler Boyd has settled in as one of the league's top slot receivers. The Bengals also played at one of the league's faster paces while Burrow was in the lineup. While I'm trying to strip out that pace when I talk about each team's talent at the skill-position spots, these three wideouts are going to have plenty of chances to impress.
What about Joe Mixon, though? Is he really the "best back in the league," as Bill Belichick called him toward the end of the 2019 season? Mixon has played behind a dismal line, but after an impressive season in 2018, the former Oklahoma player has produced 1,990 yards from scrimmage with 12 touchdowns and middling efficiency over the past two seasons. Mixon sat out most of 2020 with a foot injury, so with the Bengals expected to give him a three-down workload if healthy, this could be our best chance to see whether he has an All-Pro campaign in his range of outcomes.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Oh, if the 49ers could keep everyone healthy on the field at the same time! The only skill-position player to start 12 games for them last season was fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Tight end George Kittle and hyper-efficient running back Raheem Mostert made it through only eight games each, while 2020 breakout candidate Deebo Samuel managed seven. Rookie Brandon Aiyuk, who averaged more than 62 receiving yards per game while catching passes from backups for most of the year, missed four games. Jalen Hurd, a second-round pick in 2019, missed his second consecutive season, this time with a torn ACL. Tavon Austin and Jordan Reed joined the team and almost immediately went down injured themselves. It just wasn't meant to be for the 49ers last season.
San Francisco should be healthier on the whole in 2021, although it's impossible to project anybody on its roster to play all 17 games with any sort of confidence. As explosive as Mostert and Samuel can be, the real differentiator the Niners have on offense getting them into the top 12 is Kittle, who is the league's best tight end when he's on form. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are better pure receivers, but Kittle makes up the gap by being a (much) better blocker than either player. This team was able to field a functional rushing attack last season with just about anybody in its backfield, but there's no replacing Kittle.
11. Green Bay Packers
If Aaron Rodgers wasn't going to get any new weapons last year, the future Hall of Famer was just going to make some for himself. Out of relative anonymity came Robert Tonyan, who went from catching 14 career passes between 2018 and 2019 to finishing as the TE3 in 2020. It'll be near-impossible for Tonyan to keep up his touchdown rate (21.2%) or catch rate (88.1%) in 2021, but he gave the Packers a second option in the red zone behind Davante Adams.
As for Adams? He was virtually uncoverable for most of the season; I don't think I've ever seen the primary option in an offense wide open more frequently in tight situations than Adams was last season, when he racked up 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns across 13.5 games. He was the best wide receiver in football, and while the guys behind him were prone to mistakes, the Packers still got viable contributions out of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard. With running back Aaron Jones re-signed, the biggest skill-position concern for Green Bay in 2021 is whether AJ Dillon can replace Jamaal Williams, who was effective in a regular role spelling Jones last season.
10. Los Angeles Rams
The offense might not be quite as glamorous or devastating as the peak with Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, but Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp keep plugging along as one of the best receiving duos in football. I'm less enthusiastic about the Rams adding DeSean Jackson to play behind them, given that the former longtime Eagles standout is 34 and successfully completed a total of three games over the past two seasons. If anything, they will likely be more reliant on tight end Tyler Higbee, who had four consecutive 100-yard games in December 2019 and then failed to record even one in 2020. Gerald Everett's departure means they will likely turn to more 11 personnel packages, which could open up opportunities for Jackson or Van Jefferson.
While Matthew Stafford might transform the offense, Cam Akers is the one whose production seems most up in the air. The Rams took their sweet time in getting to Akers as their featured running back; he got 14 carries in the opener and then didn't top 10 carries in a game again until Week 13, at which point they gave him 132 attempts over his final six games. In the divisional-round loss to the Packers, Akers took 96% of the snaps on offense, the sort of workload the Rams gave to Gurley at his most dominant. If Stafford elevates the offense and Akers gets that sort of snap share, he could be one of the most productive backs in the league.
Note: This ranking was done before the announcement on Tuesday that Akers ruptured his Achilles and will miss the 2021 season. Next up on the Rams depth chart is Darrell Henderson, who was a third -round pick in 2019.
9. Buffalo Bills
2020 rank: 8 | 2019 Rank: 25
So much for the inevitable clash between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, huh? Allen found an immediate rapport with his star wideout, who went on to lead the NFL in both receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535). Diggs excelled in his debut season with the Bills, who seemed to find valuable receiver contributors up and down their roster. Cole Beasley had his most productive season out of the slot and Gabriel Davis emerged as an immediate contributor, but this even goes down to Isaiah McKenzie, who scored five touchdowns across 30 catches.
How, then, are the Bills one spot below where they were a year ago? The running back and tight end spots are more about scheme and rotation than standout talent. They swapped out John Brown, who looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver heading into 2020, for 34-year-old Emmanuel Sanders. Beasley has threatened to retire over concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine. Diggs should continue to be a superstar, but there's more of a drop-off between the former Vikings standout and the rest of the group than there was a year ago.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Depending on how you view running back Chris Carson, it's either a big two or a big three for the Seahawks. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were devastating in the first half of last season before the Seattle passing attack fell off during the final two months; the two starting wideouts accounted for nearly 47% of Russell Wilson's pass attempts, as no other player on the roster was targeted more than 50 times. The Seahawks used their top draft selection on 24-year-old wideout D'Wayne Eskridge, who should take over the David Moore role in the lineup, but the competitive advantage here is having two touchdown threats on the field for the vast majority of the snaps.
Carson simultaneously took a step forward and backward. The good news is that he mostly stopped fumbling, with the former seventh-rounder improving from seven fumbles on 315 touches in 2019 to just one on 178 last season. Less exciting is the foot injury that cost Carson nearly five full games, one year after his 2019 season was ended by a fractured hip. Lockett and Metcalf didn't miss any games last season; given their roster construction, the Seahawks need their stars to keep that up in 2021.
7. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers rued the absence of their biggest star last season, as running back Christian McCaffrey reminded us to be cautious about using even a spotless health record to predict future availability. After playing nearly every snap in 2019, CMC missed 13 games with ankle, shoulder and quad injuries. Like Michael Thomas, it's always good to wait and see a player recover from a high ankle sprain before counting on them to return to their prior level of play. It should be telling that McCaffrey missed virtually an entire season and is still the consensus first overall pick in fantasy drafts. There's nobody in the league like a healthy McCaffrey.
If McCaffrey comes back strong, few teams can boast a big three quite as impressive as that of McCaffrey and wideouts Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Anderson reunites with an old teammate in Sam Darnold, and while Moore's 2020 season might not have been as productive as hoped, consider that he averaged more than 10 yards per target and didn't fumble after six of them across the prior two seasons. Positive touchdown regression toward the mean will come for Moore, who has only 10 scores on 208 catches over his first three seasons.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
This is the lowest arsenal ranking for the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era, in which his weapons have previously come in first, second and first again. The drop-off comes after Travis Kelce produced arguably the greatest season by a tight end in league history and Tyreek Hill chipped in with 1,276 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Nobody -- not the Seahawks, not the Vikings, not anybody -- had a better one-two punch of receiving weapons than the Chiefs did a year ago, and they're both back for 2021.
Everything else doesn't look quite as good. The earlier versions of these teams had Kareem Hunt, and while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was expected to be instantly impactful as Kansas City's primary running back, the LSU product was mostly anonymous as a rookie. Mecole Hardman didn't make any sort of second-year leap and might top out as nothing more than a downfield burner. Sammy Watkins is gone -- the oft-injured receiver couldn't be counted on for full seasons of work, but the Chiefs only brought in one replacement in rookie fifth-round pick Cornell Powell. Kansas City would have arguably the league's worst depth chart at wide receiver or tight end if it lost Hill or Kelce.
5. Minnesota Vikings
It's hard to think of a trade that looks more like a win-win for both sides after one season than the swap that sent Stefon Diggs to the Bills and allowed the Vikings to draft Justin Jefferson. All Jefferson did was produce one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie receiver in league history, as he led all receivers in yards (1,330) and yards per target (11.0) after entering the starting lineup in Week 3. Adam Thielen's volume suffered, with the veteran losing a little over two targets per game from his 2018 peak, but he still scored a ho-hum 14 touchdowns.
At this point, everybody's on the same page with Dalvin Cook: When the Vikings' star running back is healthy, he's right alongside Derrick Henry as the most fearsome back in all of football. Counting on him to be healthy can be dangerous. He missed two games in 2019 and had to leave three more with a shoulder injury. Last season, he sat out in Week 17 and missed a game and a half with a groin issue. Cook does more in 13 or 14 games than most backs do in a full season, but if we ever get to see the 2017 second-rounder piece together a full 17-game campaign, he'd be a threat to hit 2,000 yards.
4. Cleveland Browns
While Nick Chubb missed time last season, the biggest obstacle standing in the way of his path toward a rushing title isn't injuries; it's the presence of a second standout back in Kareem Hunt. It's difficult to think of a team that had a top two at running back quite as impressive as Cleveland's duo, and while backs aren't as valuable as wide receivers in the modern league, the Browns get plenty of production out of Chubb and Hunt. They're also deep at tight end, although Austin Hooper's numbers fell back to earth without the benefit of the garbage time he enjoyed in Atlanta.
At wide receiver, though, the Browns might not be quite as impressive as the names suggest. Jarvis Landry finished with career lows in receptions (72) and receiving yards (840) coming off hip surgery. More disconcertingly, Odell Beckham Jr. was off to a slow start even before tearing an ACL in October. He's now four years removed from being a superstar wideout, with his numbers dropping across the board after dealing with an ankle injury in 2017. OBJ is still only 28, but it would be a surprise if he again looked like the guy who tore up the league with the Giants from 2014 to '16. If that Beckham shows up in 2021, the Browns would have the league's best group of weapons on offense.
3. Tennessee Titans
Since the start of 2019, Derrick Henry has 3,567 rushing yards. Dalvin Cook, who ranks second in the league over that time frame, is 875 rushing yards behind. Henry's role in the passing game is limited to catching the occasional screen, but even without that work, he's 315 yards from scrimmage ahead of the other backs. He also leads the league with 35 touchdowns over that spell, and that's without considering his postseason work. I'm scared about his workload, but he had 386 carries between the regular season and the playoffs in 2019 and didn't look any worse for wear in 2020.
Of course, the Titans rose further up the charts after trading for Julio Jones, who will form a potentially devastating top-two receiver duo alongside A.J. Brown. They both have injury concerns -- Jones was out for half of 2020 and Brown is coming off double knee surgery -- but there were 11 receivers in the NFL who averaged more than 10 yards per target on 50 targets or more last season, and two of them now play in Tennessee. The Chiefs will be more explosive because they have Mahomes, but the Titans are about as close as it gets when it comes to the possibility of big plays given their talent at running back and receiver.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Just about everything else besides the weaponry went wrong for the Cowboys last season. Their defense couldn't stop anybody. Quarterback Dak Prescott and their best offensive linemen were injured. Everybody's numbers were down after Prescott was replaced by Andy Dalton and the team used backup tackles for virtually the entire season, but rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb looked like a star. We know what Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup can do with a healthy Prescott, and while tight end Blake Jarwin missed most of the year with a torn ACL, Dalton Schultz stepped in and racked up 615 yards with four touchdowns. That's more receiving yards than Dallas Goedert has produced in any of his three NFL seasons.
The one weapon whose stock is down after 2020 might be Ezekiel Elliott. For all the talk about how Elliott was the guy who made Prescott and the rest of the offense tick, the running back looked entirely ordinary without his star quarterback. Elliott posted career lows in most categories and finished with a below-average DVOA, in part because he fumbled six times on 296 touches. His numbers should bounce back some with Prescott & Co. returning to the fold, but the arguments that he was a scheme- or line-transcendent back are firmly in the past. This is a passing team now.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nobody in the league combines Tampa's combination of top-level talent and supreme depth. Bruce Arians' team has a true No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans. The guys behind him are massively overqualified for their roles; it's an embarrassment of riches to have Chris Godwin as a second wideout and even a limited version of Antonio Brown as the No. 3. Scotty Miller would be a burgeoning starter for some teams; here, he's a No. 4 who averages 9.5 yards per target.
The Bucs might not be quite as impressive at the other spots, but their starters at running back (Leonard Fournette) and tight end (Rob Gronkowski) were legitimate difference-makers during the postseason. They're also blessed with deep depth charts at both spots, given that Fournette will be spelled by Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard, while Gronkowski will split time with Cameron Brate and the returning O.J. Howard. You could make a case for the Cowboys at No. 1 if you think Elliott is still a superstar back, and the Titans have a more impressive top three, but I think the Bucs are as good as it gets for skill-position talent.