Every NFL season comes packed with surprises. If we could predict them ... well, then they wouldn't be surprises.
That said, our jobs do offer us the advantage of touring training camps and speaking, whether in person or on the phone, to the people who operate NFL teams. In doing that, we occasionally learn things that might not be obvious to the football-watching public.
So this preseason piece aims to identify one potential surprise for each team -- something that, based on the information I've been able to gather during this preseason, I think could happen but perhaps you might not expect. I hope you find it educational or at least enjoyable. Hey, some of it might even help you with your fantasy football drafts.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA
SF | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Don't be surprised if ... Chandler Jones leads the league in sacks.
What I'm hearing: Jones was upset earlier in the offseason that the Cardinals hadn't given him a contract extension, and he was interested in being traded to a team that would. But Arizona made it clear that it wasn't going to trade the linebacker, and Jones is back in the building and has been all-in, according to people who've spoken with him.
He had just one sack in an injury-shortened 2020 season -- he injured his right biceps in early October -- but over the five seasons prior, he had 9.5 more sacks than anyone else in the league. Healthy, eyeing free agency and teamed with J.J. Watt, Jones is in position to dominate.
Atlanta Falcons
Don't be surprised if ... Calvin Ridley leads the league in receiving yards.
What I'm hearing: The trade of wide receiver Julio Jones to the Titans makes this almost a little too obvious, but there are multiple reasons to expect the Falcons will lean on Ridley. Their second-best receiver is a rookie -- tight end Kyle Pitts, whom they think is special but like any rookie could have growing pains. Ridley himself has all of the characteristics of a No. 1 wide receiver, which is why they drafted him in the first round in 2018. And the Falcons have big questions on the front and back ends of their defense and could be trailing in games a lot this year as a result.
Many point to how run-heavy Tennessee was when new Falcons coach Arthur Smith was its offensive coordinator. But with no offense intended toward running back Mike Davis, Smith doesn't have Derrick Henry in Atlanta. Smart coaches coach to their rosters' strengths, and this roster's strength is the passing game.
Baltimore Ravens
Don't be surprised if ... the offense gets off to another slow start.
What I'm hearing: No, it's not because of the J.K. Dobbins injury, though that certainly doesn't help. The Ravens will be able to run the ball with Gus Edwards, Ty'Son Williams and of course quarterback Lamar Jackson. The concern for the offense is that health issues have kept Baltimore from doing the work its planned to do on its passing game this offseason.
Jackson missed time early in camp after a positive COVID-19 test, and just about every wide receiver has missed practice time because of injury (Marquise Brown returned to practice this week, but rookie first-round pick Rashod Bateman will miss more time). You have to trust this coaching staff to get it together, as it did in the latter part of the 2020 regular season when the Ravens won their final five games. But it could look rough out of the gate.
Buffalo Bills
Don't be surprised if ... Devin Singletary is the Bills' lead running back ahead of Zack Moss.
What I'm hearing: The Bills say conditioning was the main reason Singletary didn't follow up on his promising rookie year with a strong 2020. They say the lack of a true offseason program last year affected some players more than others, and Singletary was one of them. He's in better shape now and has had a strong camp.
They still like Moss, a third-round pick last year, and will use him. But if last year's split morphs into something that tilts a little more toward Singletary, don't be surprised.
Carolina Panthers
Don't be surprised if ... Brian Burns has his first double-digit-sack season.
What I'm hearing: Over his first two seasons, Burns has often flashed the ability that led the Panthers to draft him in the first round in 2019. But the reason he could take a Year 3 jump is that Carolina feels good about the front-seven group around him. Whether it's the second-year development of 2020 second-round pick Yetur Gross-Matos or the performance so far of free-agent signing Morgan Fox, this team has what its coaches consider to be several positive developments on defense in training camp.
Chicago Bears
Don't be surprised if ... Damien Williams is more than just David Montgomery's backup.
What I'm hearing: Williams, who opted out of the 2020 season after starring for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, is the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. The Bears like Montgomery and can't ignore the fact that he rushed for more yards (598) than anyone but Derrick Henry (948) and Jonathan Taylor (651) over the final six weeks of last season.
Chicago, however, wants to inject some variety into its run game, which struggled in short-yardage situations even once Montgomery heated up. Williams knows the offense from his time in Kansas City with Matt Nagy mentor Andy Reid. And with Tarik Cohen still working his way back from an ACL tear, there's a role for him in it.
Cincinnati Bengals
Don't be surprised if ... the offensive line isn't as bad as you think it is.
What I'm hearing: The Bengals allowed just one sack and seven QB hits in the preseason, and while preseason results aren't predictive, it matters at least a little that they played against Tampa Bay and Washington starters in two of those games.
They've taken a ton of grief for drafting wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase instead of tackle Penei Sewell at No. 5 overall, but they did pick three other offensive linemen in April, sign Riley Reiff in free agency and bring back offensive line coach Frank Pollack to oversee the overhaul. If 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams is who they drafted him to be, the unit protecting Joe Burrow might not be the liability it's so often assumed to be.
Cleveland Browns
Don't be surprised if ... the Browns let Baker Mayfield play out this season without a contract extension.
What I'm hearing: They did pick up Mayfield's fifth-year option for 2022, and they know they can franchise him in 2023 and 2024 if it comes to that. But while they're willing to extend Mayfield's contract at a nice number, they're not eager to do it if he wants to be paid in the upper-$30 million-to-lower-$40 million range like the other quarterbacks at the top of the pay scale, including fellow class of 2018 signal-caller Josh Allen.
The Browns could do with Mayfield what the Cowboys did with Dak Prescott and go year to year.
Dallas Cowboys
Don't be surprised if ... Ezekiel Elliott bounces back.
What I'm hearing: Yeah, it's easy to roll your eyes when you hear the same old "He's in much better shape" stuff. I get it. But by all accounts inside the Cowboys' building, Elliott is motivated to put last season behind him and should benefit from a healthier offensive line than he had. (Elliott rushed for just 979 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.0 yards per carry.)
The team must believe that left tackle Tyron Smith, in particular, is healthier than he has been in years as a result of procedures he had done this offseason to address long-lingering injuries. Especially as Dak Prescott shakes off the rust, count on Elliott to look like the Zeke of old.
Denver Broncos
Don't be surprised if ... Javonte Williams is the lead running back sooner rather than later.
What I'm hearing: The Broncos have been impressed with their second-round pick and project to use him a lot in his rookie year. Melvin Gordon remains an impediment to the clear-cut lead back role for Williams, and the Broncos are likely to use both of them early in the season, assuming good health for both.
But there are plenty who expect Williams to perform in such a way that renders the competition moot. He should get a lot of work.
Detroit Lions
Don't be surprised if ... Jamaal Williams leads the team in rushing.
What I'm hearing: More than once over the years, new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has made it clear he likes to use multiple running backs -- that he models this philosophy on the Carolina teams that used both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Yes, the team has 2020 second-round pick D'Andre Swift on the roster. But it gave Williams a two-year, $6 million contract with $3.5 million guaranteed as a free agent. Detroit definitely plans to use him. Add in the fact that Swift has been dealing with injuries throughout camp, and it's set up for Williams to assume a large role.
Green Bay Packers
Don't be surprised if ... Jaire Alexander gets a contract extension and Davante Adams doesn't.
What I'm hearing: The Packers haven't been able to see eye to eye in extension talks with Adams, their star receiver who is eligible for free agency in 2022. They have Alexander under contract through 2022, but he's scheduled to make $13.3 million in 2022 on his fifth-year option. Knocking down the cornerback's number with an extension would help the Packers with the significant cap problems they'll confront next year, and their history shows they've been much more likely to stretch on second contracts (i.e., Alexander) as opposed to third contracts (i.e., Adams).
This doesn't mean Adams is out of there, just that he doesn't seem likely to get an extension before or during the season.
Houston Texans
Don't be surprised if ... Davis Mills starts some games at quarterback.
What I'm hearing: The Texans like Tyrod Taylor, and let's be honest -- who isn't rooting for Taylor to finally have some good luck and not lose his job to a rookie for once? But for the Texans, this season is about finding out who will form the core of their team for the long term, and the 32-year-old Taylor likely doesn't fit that description.
Mills, their third-round pick in April's draft, certainly could be, and it would behoove them to find out what they can about him before making decisions about the quarterback position next offseason.
Indianapolis Colts
Don't be surprised if ... Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing.
What I'm hearing: The Colts love Taylor and insist he can be not just an every-down back but a dominant workhorse. When I visited their camp, I heard from multiple people about the improvements Taylor has made this offseason in the passing game -- both as a pass-catcher and as a blocker.
The Colts will want to be run-heavy to take pressure off Carson Wentz and lean on their outstanding offensive line, and Taylor could pile up massive yardage totals as a result. He was the NFL's third-leading rusher last season, putting up 1,169 yards and averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Don't be surprised if ... Laviska Shenault Jr. leads the team in catches.
What I'm hearing: You saw a little bit of it in Sunday's preseason finale against Dallas, but the Jaguars know they're going to have to design some ways to mitigate the protection issues Trevor Lawrence will deal with in his rookie season. Shenault is a versatile outlet who can catch the ball near the line of scrimmage and do something with it after he has it in his hands.
Some of that work likely was ticketed for rookie running back Travis Etienne, but he's out for the year after having surgery on a Lisfranc injury. The Jaguars have good wide receivers in Marvin Jones and DJ Chark, but Shenault is going to be an important safety valve for Lawrence and could end up peppered with targets as a result.
Kansas City Chiefs
Don't be surprised if ... Clyde Edwards-Helaire still doesn't get the third-down and goal-line work for Kansas City.
What I'm hearing: The Chiefs signed Jerick McKinnon for his value as a pass protector and pass-catcher. Edwards-Helaire, their 2020 first-round pick, is still a work in progress in some of those roles, and we could see a continuation of last season's rotation that took him off the field in certain situations. He still finished the season with 181 carries and 36 catches on 54 targets.
As for the goal line, it's hard to predict what kind of trick play Andy Reid will dream up when the Chiefs get in close. But his tendency toward creative scoring solutions tells us he's not likely to just slam it in with a power run every time.
Las Vegas Raiders
Don't be surprised if ... Bryan Edwards is the Raiders' top wide receiver.
What I'm hearing: While it's still safe to assume tight end Darren Waller is Derek Carr's go-to guy, the Raiders would like to get more out of their wide receivers this season. Henry Ruggs is the first-round pick from last year and the headliner, but Edwards had an outstanding 2020 camp and was ticketed for a bigger role than you think before injuries derailed him.
The big, 6-foot-3 third-rounder from last April's draft projects as the "X" receiver in the Raiders' offense, and both Carr and coach Jon Gruden are enamored with the mismatches they can create with him.
Los Angeles Chargers
Don't be surprised if ... this is Mike Williams' last season with the team.
What I'm hearing: Williams, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 draft, is playing on a $15.68 million fifth-year option salary and is eligible for free agency next offseason. The Chargers drafted Joshua Palmer in the third round in April, and they've been impressed with what they've seen from him. Palmer should have a role in the offense this season.
He might not supplant Williams, but it's important to remember that (a) Williams has never had a 50-catch season, (b) they haven't given him a contract extension and (c) they're building around a 23-year-old second-year quarterback in Justin Herbert. That doesn't mean they're looking to "go young," but if Palmer strikes them as a building-block piece for the long term, he's certainly going to be a lot cheaper to keep on the books in 2022 and beyond than Williams.
Los Angeles Rams
Don't be surprised if ... Sony Michel gets more carries than Darrell Henderson Jr.
What I'm hearing: It sounds as if the Rams believe Henderson and the newly acquired Michel complement each other stylistically, which indicates they could use both as a committee. But one big reason they acquired Michel after Cam Akers suffered his season-ending Achilles' injury was that Henderson has had a hard time staying consistently healthy.
L.A. is a second chance for the former Patriots first-rounder Michel, and if he can stay on the field and the Rams play with the lead enough, his style and Henderson's health history could combine to make Michel the back on whom the Rams lean the hardest.
Miami Dolphins
Don't be surprised if ... Jaylen Waddle challenges for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
What I'm hearing: Unless and until a significantly better option emerges, the Dolphins have plenty of incentive to make second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa successful. They drafted Waddle No. 6 overall to be an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands, and he's the kind of guy Tagovailoa should be able to find quickly while under duress.
Add in his likely contributions in the return game, and Waddle (assuming health) will be in position for a lot of highlight-reel plays and a lot of yards.
Minnesota Vikings
Don't be surprised if ... rookie quarterback Kellen Mond gets at least one start.
What I'm hearing: Kirk Cousins has missed just one game in the past six years. He's underrated from a number of standpoints, and his durability is one of his obvious strengths. But he's also staunchly anti-vaccine, and if you've been paying any attention this offseason, you know COVID-19 is still likely to affect this season in some way.
The NFL's rules make unvaccinated players far more likely to miss time for COVID-19-related reasons than vaccinated players. All Cousins has to do is be identified as a close contact late in the week of someone who tested positive, and he's out for the game. Mond is a third-round pick who looked raw in the preseason, but if Cousins has to miss a game and the Vikings aren't in the playoff race, they might decide to get a look at him.
New England Patriots
Don't be surprised if ... the Patriots lead the league in rushing -- even though Cam Newton's not the quarterback.
What I'm hearing: They love their offensive line. They love their defense. They believe they have tremendous depth at running back with Damien Harris, James White, J.J. Taylor and preseason standout Rhamondre Stevenson. Rookie first-round pick Mac Jones -- named the starter on Tuesday -- can sling it, no doubt. But the Patriots' identity is likely to be the run game. And if they're good enough that the offense is playing with the lead more often than not, they will lean on it hard.
Bonus note: They like Harris a lot, but not so much in the passing game. Don't be surprised if we're sitting here a year from now talking about Stevenson, who rushed for 216 yards in the preseason, as the lead back in this offense.
New Orleans Saints
Don't be surprised if ... the Saints end up with Stephon Gilmore after all.
What I'm hearing: As of this past week, the Patriots were still open to the idea of trading Gilmore, who now has to miss the first six weeks on the physically unable to perform list. Gilmore is known to be unhappy with his contract, which is up after the season. While there was optimism a month or so ago that he and the Patriots would get something worked out, they still have not.
The Saints have a need at the position and high enough hopes for this year that you can't rule out them making the move for the missing piece if they still have a need as we get closer to the trade deadline. These teams have done high-profile deals before.
New York Giants
Don't be surprised if ... Saquon Barkley plays in Week 1.
What I'm hearing: The Giants' coaching staff and front office are leaving it up to the doctors to clear the running back for game action as he continues to recover from last year's torn ACL, but there does seem to be some optimism that he has a chance to play in their opener.
Whether Barkley would take on a full workload right away or split carries with Devontae Booker is all to be worked out, but after a careful offseason, it seems as if the Giants could get their most important offensive player back in time to play a full season.
New York Jets
Don't be surprised if ... Corey Davis catches 85 passes from Zach Wilson.
What I'm hearing: The two have a real connection and a high level of trust. Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in April, has played better in the preseason than many expected him to, and Jets coaches think their team's defensive line (at least when Carl Lawson was healthy) did a good job making life difficult enough for Wilson in practice that he was prepared to shine once the games started.
Wilson has a big arm and a lot of confidence, and Davis is a former first-round pick (2017) who spent the first couple of years of his career fighting through injuries before being supplanted on the Titans' depth chart by A.J. Brown. It's a connection that could turn out to be a fun one for the Jets and their fans.
Philadelphia Eagles
Don't be surprised if ... DeVonta Smith leads the team in catches and receiving yards.
What I'm hearing: I know, I know -- I said the same thing about Smith's Alabama teammate in the Dolphins blurb. But there is nothing but opportunity in the Eagles' wide receiver corps, and they traded up in the draft to steal Smith from the division-rival Giants (No. 10 overall) with the idea that he would play a major role early on.
Smith's training camp injury was a minor setback, but the team says he'll be ready to go and hit the ground running right away. He's as polished and pro-ready a player as there was in April's draft and should be an asset to Jalen Hurts right out of the gate.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Don't be surprised if ... Alex Highsmith has double-digit sacks.
What I'm hearing: The Steelers expect big things from their 2020 third-round pick, who'll play the edge rush spot opposite superstar T.J. Watt. While Watt will command a lot of much-deserved attention, Pittsburgh indicates Highsmith is ready to be a full-time starter and make up for the loss of Bud Dupree in free agency.
San Francisco 49ers
Don't be surprised if ... they really do rotate quarterbacks during games, at least early in the season.
What I'm hearing: The 49ers gave rookie Trey Lance the opportunity to beat out Jimmy Garoppolo for the starting job in camp, but they didn't feel he progressed far enough to do it. Given Garoppolo's past injury issues, getting him off the field now and then isn't a terrible idea, and rotating the quarterbacks gives coach Kyle Shanahan a chance to play with new concepts and mess with the heads of defensive coordinators.
There will come a time, likely this season, when Lance will take over as the unquestioned starter. But until that time comes, Shanahan is more than willing to apply a creative solution as long as it works.
Seattle Seahawks
Don't be surprised if ... Russell Wilson sets a career high in passing yards.
What I'm hearing: His single-season high is 4,219 yards, set in 2016. Eight NFL quarterbacks surpassed that total in 2020. Wilson was ninth with 4,212, and there's an extra game this season, so you're sitting there saying, "No duh, Dan." The fact is, Wilson has never been a high-volume passer, just an incredibly efficient one. Coach Pete Carroll always wants his offense to lean on the run game as much as possible. But the hiring of new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a Sean McVay disciple from the Rams, signals a desire to play faster and more up-tempo, and Wilson could end up throwing more just because there will be more plays.
If Wilson wants to throw more -- and if Seattle really wants to convince him to stay there long term -- it might be a good idea to let him "cook" a little bit the way he did early last season. The only caveat is that they need to keep winning or else Carroll might decide to order a change back to the old standby.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don't be surprised if ... Antonio Brown is the Bucs' most productive wide receiver.
What I'm hearing: Yeah, I said it. And no, I didn't forget about Chris Godwin or Mike "I have 1,000 receiving yards every season" Evans. But Tom Brady loves Antonio Brown. It's the reason Brown is there.
Brown didn't show up until Week 9 last season because of his suspension, so it took him a while to get going in the offense. But he was still second on the team with 62 targets over the final eight games -- one behind Evans and seven ahead of Godwin. A full offseason together heading into a full season together should only deepen the belief Brady has in Brown's abilities.
This is an embarrassment of riches and could certainly vary week to week, but I don't think it's right to just assume Brown is the No. 3 there. And if he is, it won't be by much.
Tennessee Titans
Don't be surprised if ... Bud Dupree has a big year.
What I'm hearing: Many teams were surprised when the Titans gave Dupree a big contract in free agency, because they worried the linebacker wouldn't be ready for the season coming off a torn ACL. But Dupree was in great spirits and doing a lot of practice work when I visited this camp a few weeks ago, and there's a lot of belief there that he'll be back to himself and ready to go in Week 1.
Only Jacksonville and Cincinnati had fewer sacks last year than Tennessee's 19. This team needs the help.
Washington Football Team
Don't be surprised if ... Taylor Heinicke starts some games in 2021.
What I'm hearing: The outside world is stunningly fired up about Ryan Fitzpatrick coming in as Washington's quarterback, which probably says as much about their 2020 QB situation as their 2021 one. Fitzpatrick has started 16 games in a season three times in his 16-year career, most recently in 2015 for the Jets, and has never played on a team that reached the playoffs. Even over his last two seasons in Miami -- which were regarded as two of the best he has had -- he still threw 33 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions in 24 games. Not exactly superstar numbers, and he turns 39 in November.
Look, we are all rooting for Fitzpatrick to hit it big at the tail end of his fascinating career. It would be great if it happened. But there's little in his history to inspire confidence that it will. Washington poked around on quarterbacks in Round 1 of April's draft because it knows it will need a long-term answer. Don't rule out the possibility that Fitzpatrick has a hiccup or two that leads them to take a look at other options.