In case you missed it, ESPN released 2021 NFL Rank, our annual list of the top 100 players for the upcoming season. It's projected forward and based on expected performance for this season only, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that there weren't any rookies among the elites listed, even though the future is bright for many prospects who were drafted in April. (The last rookie to make it before playing a snap in the NFL was Saquon Barkley in 2018 at No. 87.)
But could some first-years crack the top 100 in a year's time, when we roll out the 2022 edition? You bet. After all, four players entering their second seasons made the top 100 this year. I thought Chase Young (No. 31) and Justin Jefferson (No. 36) would have a good shot when I looked at the 2020 rookies last September, but I was a little surprised that Justin Herbert (No. 38) and Tristan Wirfs (No. 96) excelled in a big way that quickly into their careers.
So who among the 2021 draft picks are best positioned to make the list next summer? Who could have a big enough season this year and be set up for future success in such a way that voters will already group them among the best players in the league? Factoring in talent, opportunity, position, situation and more, I outlined four rookies with perhaps the best chance. We also included Mike Clay's projected stat line for each of those first-year players. Surprise: No quarterbacks were among them -- and I'll explain why at the bottom.
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2021 NFL Rank | Snubs, surprises, more
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
This one isn't complicated. Pitts was the highest-drafted tight end in the common draft era for good reason (No. 4 overall); he is arguably the best non-QB skill player in the entire 2021 class and checked in as my No. 2 prospect in April. And productive pass-catchers have a tendency to break through onto these lists early in their careers. Minnesota's Jefferson did so in 2021, and Tennessee's A.J. Brown did it a year ago.
We used the phrase "matchup nightmare" a lot when discussing Pitts around draft time, and he will be all that and more in Arthur Smith's offense in Atlanta. Sure, he played tight end at Florida, and he will likely spend plenty of time there for the Falcons, but Pitts is really more of a hybrid receiver. He can line up all over an offense and give defenses challenging looks. His versatility and skill set will make him an instant weapon for Atlanta.
Pitts has a 6-foot-6 frame, ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash, displays great hands and runs excellent routes. Linebackers will have trouble staying with him, and defensive backs will struggle to contain his size. Pitts can get separation downfield or muscle down contested catches. And he can turn and tack on yards after the catch, too.
Without Julio Jones in the mix, quarterback Matt Ryan will utilize Pitts early and often, and he could easily be the No. 2 target behind Calvin Ridley. Since Tony Gonzalez retired after the 2013 season, the Falcons rank No. 24 in tight end receptions (464), No. 23 in tight end touchdowns (37) and No. 25 in tight end receiving yards per game (43.6). But Ryan finally has a tight end he can lean on, especially in the red zone. Pitts' 12 touchdowns in 2020 were the second most by a tight end in a season in the history of the SEC -- and he played only eight games. He has All-Pro upside early in his career.
Clay's projected stat line for 2021: 72 receptions, 840 yards, 6 TDs
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
It was close, but I had Chase as my top receiver in this year's talented WR class. He was my No. 3 overall prospect, and he ultimately was taken at No. 5 -- ahead of Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and the rest of the skilled wideouts.
Yes, his training camp and preseason have been rough. He has struggled with drops and been inconsistent in August, and it's clear the long layoff since his last game action will require an adjustment period. But I still expect him to be a star this season.
The LSU product's best trait is probably his body control. He can track and adjust to the ball in the air so well. And once he has the ball, his contact balance is outstanding. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he's a tough open-field runner. And while he isn't the most elusive player, he uses his physicality to add more yards after the catch. In 2019 -- his last season, since he opted out in 2020 -- Chase was sixth in the country in yards after the catch with 699. More impressively, he led the nation in receiving yards (1,780) and was fourth in yards per catch (21.2).
That magical season came with Joe Burrow under center for the Tigers, and Chase is, of course, reunited with Burrow in Cincinnati. Expect the chemistry to catch back on early this season, even if we haven't necessarily seen it just yet. The Bengals will also have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd at receiver -- along with Joe Mixon coming out of the backfield -- but Chase will get his targets, especially later this season once he settles into the offense.
I really like Chase's routes, and he is physical getting off the line of scrimmage. While he isn't a burner, his top-end speed is more than enough to stretch the field and haul in deep balls. Chase will be effective in the red zone for Cincinnati, as well. Eight of his FBS-leading and then-SEC record 20 touchdowns in 2019 came from inside the 20-yard line.
Clay's projected stat line for 2021: 72 receptions, 938 yards, 6 TDs
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Another receiver reunited with his former college quarterback, Waddle makes this list because of his game-breaking big-play ability. There isn't a more explosive and elusive receiver with the ball in his hands in the rookie class than Waddle. He has incredible lateral movement, field vision, acceleration and top-end speed. My No. 7 prospect this year, Waddle will beat you by either tracking the vertical shot or churning out yards after the catch.
And even with the experience and already-built-up chemistry aside, Waddle is in a perfect spot with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Tagovailoa will distribute quick-game throws via screens, options, slants and crossers, which will get the ball in Waddle's hands so he can make things happen. But the second-year QB also has great touch when airing it out, which will lead to chunk plays for Waddle. Over the 2018-19 seasons at Alabama, the duo hooked up for 798 yards and seven scores. They have looked in-sync during camp and preseason, too.
Waddle might be a little undersized at 5-foot-10, but he isn't afraid to work the middle of the field. Press corners tend to have trouble redirecting him because of the acceleration and speed, and Waddle can explode out of his breaks to gain separation. He missed most of the 2020 season with a right ankle injury but has had more than enough time to recover. That's big news for the Dolphins, who will be relying on their sixth overall pick in a receiving room with William Fuller V and DeVante Parker.
Over his three college seasons, Waddle averaged 18.9 yards per catch and forced 26 missed tackles. And through the Crimson Tide's fourth game last season -- when Waddle broke his ankle -- he actually had 74 more receiving yards than teammate and eventual Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, despite catching 13 fewer passes.
Clay's projected stat line for 2021: 64 receptions, 848 yards, 5 TDs
Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Parsons -- the No. 12 overall pick in April and my fourth-ranked defensive prospect in the class -- is NFL-ready. He does it all, and those skills were on full display in 2019, his last college season at Penn State before opting out in 2020. In that season, Parsons had 109 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 4 QB hurries.
The Cowboys will look for that versatility to make a difference in their defense, which disappointed last year. Dallas allowed 5.9 yards per play (23rd in the NFL) and 2.47 points per drive (26th). Parsons is already above Jaylon Smith and Keanu Neal on the depth chart after a terrific camp and will have plenty of opportunity to make his presence felt.
Parsons has great range and length in coverage, showing the speed and size to blanket running backs and tight ends in man coverage or close on pass-catchers in zone. But he also has the burst and balance to disrupt in run defense, shooting gaps and slipping blocks. Once he gets to the ball carrier, Parsons is an excellent tackler. And as an added bonus, he is underrated as a pass-rusher and blitzer, whether it be off the edge or between the tackles.
One area where I think Parsons will have a big-time impact is on third down. Dallas' 46.9% allowed conversion rate ranked in the bottom seven in the league last season, but Parsons has the ability to make plays in those crucial situations and stall opponent drives.
Clay's projected stat line for 2021: 126 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble
OK, but where are the quarterbacks?
Yes, I had five quarterbacks within my top 15 prospects for the 2021 class. And yes, five quarterbacks were drafted in the top 15 picks, including three to begin the draft. But I have concerns about all five of them in Year 1, even though they could be stars for their respective teams within the first few years of their careers. Some might find success this season, but they all would have trouble checking in as top-100 players in the league after just one year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is the most talented QB prospect I have seen come out of college in a decade, and he has all the potential in the world. But there will be an adjustment period in 2021. He has looked a little inconsistent in the early going, and it might take some time for this offense to get in sync. It's also worth remembering that hybrid running back Travis Etienne -- Lawrence's teammate at Clemson -- was expected to be a dynamic part of the Jags' offense, but he's out for the season with a left foot injury. Simply put, the Jaguars need more speed on the outside to help Lawrence excel. And remember: Jacksonville was one of two teams to have zero players at all in this year's top 100.
Then there is the New York Jets' Zach Wilson, the No. 2 pick behind Lawrence in April. He has looked great so far, and I love his second-reaction ability outside of the pocket. But while the supporting cast is undoubtedly improved, it isn't totally there yet. The run game lacks a real game-breaker, and the receiver depth chart behind Corey Davis still needs some work. I think Elijah Moore -- a second-round pick this year -- will eventually become a high-impact player, but Wilson needs more here.
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields has similar problems. Allen Robinson II is on a franchise tag and could be gone after this season. Darnell Mooney is the No. 2 receiver on the depth chart right now. And that's before even mentioning the offensive line. Fields also shares another issue with San Francisco 49ers first-rounder Trey Lance: Their playing time will likely be limited this season, and voters might not see enough to put them among the top players for next season off a small -- and perhaps nonexistent -- sample of pro snaps. The Bears already named Andy Dalton as their Week 1 starter, and there is a strong possibility the 49ers go with Jimmy Garoppolo.
The New England Patriots named Mac Jones as their starter on Tuesday morning, so the reps will be there. But there will likely be a bit of an adjustment period for him, as well.
Again, all five have the chance to be stars in this league. But putting them among the very best 100 players in the entire league after one season might be asking too much. Give them some time to make an impact.