Our 2020 NFL Rank, ESPN's annual list of the top 100 players for the upcoming season, was just released. As a list based around contributions for only the 2020 season, it predictably featured zero rookies. But that doesn't mean first-year guys couldn't be considered top-100 players by season's end.
In fact, five 2019 draft picks made this year's list after only one season in the pros. Nick Bosa led the pack at No. 15, trailed by Kyler Murray (No. 47), Josh Jacobs (No. 88), Josh Allen (No. 91) and A.J. Brown (No. 97). Brown wasn't even a Day 1 draft selection, but his 1,051-yard, eight-touchdown season convinced voters he deserved to be on the list heading into 2020. The last rookie to make it before playing a snap in the NFL? Saquon Barkley in 2018 at No. 87 (he ranked No. 12 in 2019 and No. 16 this year).
So could any 2020 NFL draft picks make the list in a year's time? Will we look back at our top 100 and regret not including any particular rookie? I ranked 10 first-years who have the best chance -- factoring in talent, opportunity, position and more -- to make the 2021 NFL Rank list as one of the league's premier players right out of the gate. And filling in No. 1 on the list was all too easy.
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2020 NFL Rank | Snubs, surprises, more
1. Chase Young, DE, Washington
Young was the No. 2 overall pick in April for a reason. The most important thing for edge rushers is getting to the quarterback, and he did that at Ohio State at an incredible rate. Over his final two collegiate seasons, Young recorded 26.0 sacks, 16 QB hurries, 35.5 tackles for loss and seven forced fumbles -- and he missed two games. He is a long athlete with explosive speed and elite takeoff quickness. As a rookie, he will already threaten opponents with his speed, flexibility and power. Edge rushers need all three to make offensive tackles vulnerable.
The scarier thing for opponents? Young is going to continue to develop. He is going to be even better and more refined in two or three years. But right off the bat, Young is a plug-and-play disruptor for Washington. With Montez Sweat (7.0 sacks as a rookie) opposite him, there's an argument to be made that these two make up the best young edge rushing duo in the NFL. Both are more than capable of dropping double-digit sacks in 2020.
2. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Jeudy was the second receiver off the draft board behind Las Vegas' Henry Ruggs, but I have him here as the top WR, whereas Ruggs didn't even make my top 10. There's no denying Ruggs' burner ability. But Jeudy has plenty of wheels himself, and he is the most polished route runner I've seen coming out of college in 20 years. And in my eyes, route running is the most important trait for wide receivers in smoothly transitioning to the NFL.
The Alabama product runs precise routes and creates good separation with his savviness. He can exploit one-on-one matchups, find soft spots in zone coverage and work back to his quarterback when needed. Jeudy is versatile enough to line up in the slot or out wide, and with Courtland Sutton (15.4 yards per catch in 2019) on the other side of the field, the rookie will certainly get his looks.
The X factor in it all? Will quarterback Drew Lock continue his development and make the jump in 2020, or will he fall victim of the sophomore slump? If it's the former, Jeudy should contend for Offensive Rookie of the Year and be very much in the mix to make 2021 NFL Rank.
3. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Like Jeudy, Lamb runs really mature routes. But his ability to play a physical game stands out even more to me. These things matter for young receivers, and Lamb has the skill set to make contested catches and then the strength as a runner after the catch to grind out additional yards. His 21.4 yards per reception at Oklahoma last season led all players in college football who had at least 35 catches. Lamb doesn't back down to any defensive back, and his instincts and ability to break some tackles will lead to Year 1 success.
Yes, the Cowboys' offense already has Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott. That's a pair of 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,300-yard rusher. But I don't foresee Lamb having any issues getting on the field. New coach Mike McCarthy loves his 3- and 4-WR sets, and during his final season with the Green Bay Packers, his offense was the most pass-happy in the league (71.5% dropback percentage). Dak Prescott is going to throw the ball, and Lamb is going to get a good chunk of those targets.
4. Jeff Okudah, CB, Detroit Lions
OK, to be fair, it is tough to have great success as a rookie corner. But it's doable if you're that good. Jalen Ramsey did it with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2016, and Marshon Lattimore did it in 2017 with the New Orleans Saints. Okudah has that kind of skill level. He has the length and physicality to handle big wide receivers and make open-field tackles. Don't expect him to be overwhelmed by physicality, in coverage or run support -- he will challenge receivers in one-on-one matchups and only get better as the season wears on.
Detroit obviously put its faith in him right away, making him the first Lions defensive back selection in Round 1 since Terry Fair in 1998. And with Darius Slay no longer on the depth chart, there is a huge opening and opportunity for the rookie opposite Desmond Trufant. Expect the No. 3 pick to make an impact this season for a defense in need of an impact player.
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
This is all about the landing spot and opportunity. I didn't think Edwards-Helaire was the most talented back in the draft class -- I had him third and No. 28 overall behind D'Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins -- but wow, what a fit this is in Kansas City. It's hard not to succeed as the primary running back in the Chiefs' high-octane offense, and they wouldn't have used a first-rounder on him if they didn't expect him to be that guy for them.
The former LSU back runs low to the ground with excellent contact balance. He bounces off tackles and can start and stop on a dime. And in the passing game, Edwards-Helaire wasn't just a dump-off target for the Tigers. They moved him around, putting him in the slot and even outside at times. He can run strong routes, has the good hands and transitions smoothly upfield, making him a reliable option for Patrick Mahomes. Watch the numbers pile up for Edwards-Helaire in 2020.
6. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
When I think of Jefferson, I think pro-ready. He excels on contested throws with natural hands and a great ability to adjust to the ball in the air. Just look at the production. His 111 catches tied for the FBS lead last season (James Proche), his 1,540 yards ranked third and his 18 touchdowns trailed only LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase's 20. Jefferson took over games when the Tigers needed it, particularly on third down and in the red zone.
For Kirk Cousins, Jefferson is going to provide a lot of the same things he did for Joe Burrow in college. His instinctive route running, above-average body control and burst after the catch will be welcome opposite Adam Thielen as Stefon Diggs' replacement. Sure, Minnesota might look a little run-heavy at times. But in the passing game, can Thielen stay healthy? If he does, the veteran will steal attention and open up looks for Jefferson. If he doesn't, the rookie will get targets as the top guy. Either way, the No. 22 overall selection needs to take advantage.
7. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Yes, Marlon Mack is there, and there will be competition for touches. And with Philip Rivers under center, the Colts might favor the passing game a bit more than they did with Jacoby Brissett. But Indianapolis wouldn't use a second-rounder on Taylor if it didn't plan on him at least competing for the starting gig, and the Colts' strong offensive line and more respected passing game only open up opportunities and lanes in the run game. And frankly, Taylor won't need a ton of carries to put up good numbers in Year 1.
With outstanding vision and 4.39 speed, the former Wisconsin tailback is a true home run hitter who can take a 10-yard run and turn it into a 25-yarder. That alone makes him a better option at running back in this offense than Mack. Taylor isn't overpowering, but he runs hard and has burst through the hole. The question is whether he can improve his pass protection and hang on to the football.
8. Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
It is a concern area for Taylor, but pass protection is one reason why Akers will be trusted out of the gate. I'd argue that he is the best pass-protecting rookie running back in the NFL, and coaches love to see that skill in the toolbox. That'll help with opportunity, which is already abundant after the Rams moved on from Todd Gurley during the offseason. Once he's on the field, Akers will produce, too. The fourth running back off the board at No. 52, he accelerates quickly, shows sudden quickness to his game and is a hard runner. Akers has speed and is comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield, as well.
At Florida State, nothing came easy for him behind a rough offensive line. But I love this kid's tape, and I think he will excel in Sean McVay's offense.
9. Antoine Winfield Jr., DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winfield was a second-round pick in April, but I was surprised he lasted that long on the board. Sure, there are durability issues that certainly played a part there and could impact whether he indeed breaks through on the 2021 NFL Rank list. But the talent and skill set could put him not only in consideration for that list but also Defensive Player of the Year.
To start, Winfield is versatile, and with sub packages in nickel and dime being such large parts of NFL defenses now, he will be on field. He is also one of the most complete defensive backs from the 2020 draft class. He is an excellent wrap-up tackler, and his instincts and recognition ability are high-end. He takes such good angles to the ball, both in run support and in coverage.
One of the stats that best and most frequently translates to NFL success for defensive backs coming out of college is takeaways. Winfield had seven interceptions at Minnesota last season, and he could pluck five or six out of the air this year. Seriously. His ball skills are that good. And thanks to what should be an improved offense with Tom Brady, opponents will be throwing plenty.
10. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Think about the receivers who have had success with Philip Rivers -- guys like Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. The veteran QB loves big receivers who generate late separation, knowing how to use their bodies and timing jumps to get the advantage on defensive backs. When quarterbacks trust a receiver can do that, he will feed them him the ball. The 6-foot-4, 223-pound Pittman doesn't have tremendous speed, but he's physical enough to get that late separation. He won't get pushed around in press, and he can pick up yards after initial contact.
While I'm by no means suggesting Pittman will be putting up similar numbers, the USC product reminds me a bit of how we looked at Michael Thomas when he came out of college. Former Trojans teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster is another one. The elite second gear might not be there, but these guys are sure-handed and know how to adjust their bodies to make tough catches. That will translate to the NFL for Pittman.
Wait, no quarterbacks?
I thought about both top-five quarterbacks from April's draft. But while both Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) and Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) have the potential to be truly great, I think they will struggle a little in 2020.
The big question is can their teams protect them? Cincinnati has some playmakers on offense, but can the Bengals keep Burrow upright? This isn't a great team, and while the line welcomes back Jonah Williams from injury, the protection is going to be a massive concern. In Miami, Tagovailoa has plenty of injury worries. No one knows what to expect there, and the supporting cast isn't fantastic. If you promised me a healthy Tagovailoa for all 16 games -- which means not only health but also starting right away in front of Ryan Fitzpatrick -- I'd be more inclined to put him on my list here. But the Dolphins shouldn't rush the Bama star out there, and health is far from a guarantee once he does debut.
Burrow and Tagovailoa will go through struggles early in their careers. That's only reasonable. Quarterbacks navigate ups and downs as rookies. And when you throw in extremely questionable pass protection, I can't expect either to play well enough to be top-100 guys by this time next year. But that's not to say they won't both be on many of these top-100 rankings throughout their careers.