Who's the NFL's best quarterback? Wide receiver? Cornerback? What about the second-best defensive tackle -- after Aaron Donald? To preview the 2021 NFL season, we set out to answer those questions and much more.
We surveyed more than 50 league executives, coaches, scouts and players to help us stack the top 10 players at 11 different positions, from edge rusher to interior offensive linemen and all the way through tight ends. This is the second edition of these rankings, and there are several players who moved up and dropped from last year's lists.
Here's how our process worked: Voters gave us their best 10 to 15 players at a position, then we compiled the results and ranked candidates based on number of top-10 votes, composite average, and interviews, research and film-study help from ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen. We had several ties, so we broke them by isolating the two-man matchup with additional voting and follow-up calls. Each section is packed with quotes and nuggets from the voters on every guy -- even the honorable mentions.
The objective is to identify the best players right now for 2021. This is not a five-year projection or an achievement award. Who's the best today? Pretty simple.
We'll roll out a position per day over 11 days. Here's the schedule:
Week 1: edge rushers (July 5), interior defensive line (July 6), off-ball linebackers (July 7), cornerbacks (July 8), safeties (July 9), offensive tackles (July 10), interior offensive line (July 11)
Week 2: quarterbacks (July 12), running backs (July 13), wide receivers (July 14), tight ends (July 15)
The list of traits for today's elite quarterback is long. Cracking the top 10 of the NFL's best requires accuracy, anticipation and timing on throws; the range to play in multiple schemes; explosive-play ability; high-level arm strength; pocket awareness; and the ability to create plays on the move when things break down.
And being 43 years old, because somehow you can still be good at that age if you're Tom Brady.
Or being mad at your team, because two of the top four quarterbacks from this year's crew have gone through it with their respective employers this offseason.
Elite passers come in all styles and personalities, and these 10 players below embody that reality. If you're building a team from scratch, you start here.
Editor's note: The original quarterback ballot sent to voters included Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans, who finished fourth in last year's poll. Watson was removed from the rankings, however, due to his uncertain status for the 2021 season. He faces 22 active lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior. At least eight of those accusers have spoken to police, according to reports. The NFL is investigating the matter.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 3
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 1
The clear-cut No. 1 for the second consecutive year gave up a little ground. Mahomes earned 64% of the first-place votes, compared to nearly 100% in 2020. Aaron Rodgers' MVP campaign and Tom Brady's championship run in Tampa swayed some voters. Many remain undeterred.
"Still causes more problems than just about anyone," an AFC exec said. "You've got to keep him in the pocket and make him go through his progressions, but that's so hard to do. Once he gets on the move, you're done."
There's zero drop-off in Mahomes' performance on paper. He has produced a passer rating of 105 or higher in each of his three years as a starter, averaging 307.7 yards per game.
According to ESPN Stats & Information research, since becoming the Chiefs' full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes leads the NFL in Total QBR (80.6) and passing touchdowns (114), trailing only Matt Ryan in passing yards (13,868 to Ryan's 13,971).
The challenge for the game's premier passer is taking the single when he wants the home run play.
"Taking care of his body, take less hits, understand he may have to kill a defense with a thousand cuts rather than the explosive blows," an AFC exec said. "A lot of teams are forcing him to check down and take the intermediate throws, and it frustrates him. It gets boring."
Many voters point out Mahomes has the best supporting cast and coach combo, which helps his cause. But that's not Mahomes' fault.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 4
Age: 37 | Last year's ranking: 3
We said last year that Aaron Rodgers was due for a "spite season" -- an all-out attack on NFL defenses -- after the Packers selected quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft.
The results were spectacular, with Rodgers running away with the MVP -- and nearly 30% of the first-place votes in our poll this offseason.
The incredibly efficient performance -- 121.5 passer rating, 48 touchdowns to five interceptions -- confirmed what many understood during last year's voting despite a few underwhelming seasons: He's still that dude.
"If I need to win one game, he's the guy I'm picking," an AFC exec said. "I just think he's far and away the best. And with all the stuff going on, I think his teammates will back him up so I don't expect a drop-off when he goes back."
Over the past two regular seasons, no quarterback has won more games as a starter than Rodgers (26). His touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two years (8.22) is the league's best by a wide margin.
"There's probably never been someone who can throw the ball like he does," a veteran NFL quarterback said. "It's effortless, a Marino release; only he can do it while rolling to his left."
Rodgers skipped the Packers' offseason mandatory minicamp and missed the offseason program, and he has been coy about his status for the 2021 season.
3. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 6
Age: 43 | Last year's ranking: 7
Brady's playing peers are still in disbelief.
"What he did last year at age 43 is ridiculous," a veteran NFL quarterback said. "They know they can win when they have Tom."
Added an NFL tight end: "[The Bucs] built the team around him and he won the whole damn thing for them."
Some voters thought Brady was on his way out last year, picking him seventh because of a perceived declining skill set. Age will take Brady down eventually, but he quelled the questions about his game with authority.
Brady's Total QBR with Tampa was 72.6 (up from 55.7 in his final season in New England). He improved his yards per attempt (7.6) by 1 yard and threw 40 touchdowns -- 16 more than his 2019 total. He embraced Bruce Arians' deep-ball offense, tying for fourth in completions of at least 40 yards (12) compared to his 26th ranking the previous year (six).
"He was not throwing the ball as well [in 2019], but his arm looked stronger," an AFC scout said. "The dude is an anomaly."
4. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 9
Age: 32 | Last year's ranking: 2
Wilson was strengthening his case as a top-two or top-three quarterback before the "Let Russ Cook" movement burned the Seahawks' dinner late in the year.
Wilson's 13 interceptions last season were more than he had in 2018 and 2019 combined. He'd never been a volume turnover guy.
"First however many games, you were saying he's best in the league," said a veteran NFL offensive player. "But when you rely so much on the off-schedule stuff, that's where you can get into the interceptions."
Most evaluators don't expect that trend to continue, as Wilson's consistency is hard to ignore. Over the past three years, he ranks fourth in QBR (70.0) despite taking 146 sacks over that stretch. And many point to a new offense, implementing the system offensive coordinator Shane Waldron carries over from his Rams tenure, as a catalyst for improved play.
"He'll have easier throws to make and won't have to be the hero as much," an NFL coordinator said. "I think the main thing is he just has to get rid of the ball faster. If he does that, he should have a good year."
Still, some evaluators aren't sure what to make of the trade rumors surrounding Wilson, who voiced his frustrations with the team's offensive line and efforts to return to the Super Bowl and is under contract through the 2023 season.
"There's something going on there," said a high-ranking NFL official. "I just don't get the sense they are sold on him long-term."
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 9
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: Unranked
Allen wasn't much of a consideration for the top 10 rankings a year ago. Now, the majority of voters have him in their top five after a massive third season in Buffalo.
"The growth was pretty impressive," said an NFL offensive coach. "There were times when he was so in command of the offense, and when he's on top of his protections pre-snap, he's incredibly tough to beat."
Allen ranked third in the NFL in QBR (81.7) after a pedestrian 49.5 over his first two seasons, which was 27th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks. His 37 touchdown passes surpassed his previous two-year total (30).
Evaluators point to his four-touchdown performance on Monday Night Football against the 49ers and his 324 yards in the playoffs vs. the Colts as growth examples. Indy's zone defense made him escape the pocket and throw from the near-sideline, and he handled it all game.
"His biggest weakness is also what makes him so good -- his competitiveness, and wanting to make the best play," an AFC scout said. "He'll hold onto the ball a little too long or bail on the pocket too early. He often gets away with that because he's so strong and can break tackles, but against good defenses, he might press, and it gets him into trouble."
6. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: 13
Age: 33 | Last year's ranking: 10
And to think the "friends of Sean McVay" boost doesn't apply to just coaching. Stafford moved up four spots for no other reason than his move to the Rams via trade could align him closer to the greats.
"Him going to L.A. with Sean and that offense will be great for his already massive abilities," a veteran NFL quarterback said. "This will be the deciding factor on who he is."
Stafford's up-and-down time in Detroit is still central to his standing among the game's best. Some knock him for zero playoff wins in 12 years; others applaud him for leading an oft-moribund franchise to four winning seasons and three playoff appearances. As one NFC exec said, he has been in a bad place long enough that he doesn't know what a winner looks like. Stafford is coming off a solid 26-touchdown, 10-pick season that was spent almost entirely without top receiver Kenny Golladay.
What can't be debated: Stafford has always been an aerial threat. In the post-Calvin Johnson era of Lions play (2016-20), Stafford averaged 265.7 passing yards per game, eighth among NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 games played. With Johnson as a receiving target from 2009 to '15, Stafford averaged 279.3 yards, fifth in the NFL.
"He's always been top 10 because of his talents, and his ceiling is how he makes plays when [the Rams] need it late in the year," an AFC scout said. "Some feel he'll let you down at some point. Maybe that's true, maybe not. We're about to find out, and he's got the ability and the smarts and the system to make it happen."
7. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Highest ranking: 7 | Lowest ranking: 14
Age: 27 | Last year's ranking: 9
Prescott surpassed Lamar Jackson in a close race that prompted an isolated matchup with new voters for good measure. For some, the reasoning was simple.
"Lamar is a better all-around football player, Dak is the better QB," one AFC exec said.
Prescott's ankle injury didn't hurt his standing. In fact, it might have helped, placing a focus on his stellar production in the five games before the injury. Prescott threw for 1,856 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions before falling to the turf in Week 5. The Cowboys were first in passing yards per game with Prescott (381.4) and 28th without him (204.9).
"He, individually, was pretty impressive," said a veteran NFL quarterback. "Couldn't do better than that. It was high-level play."
Prescott, however, has not always been great against high-level teams. In 2019, Dallas was 1-6 against opponents that made the playoffs, with Prescott throwing for eight touchdowns to eight interceptions in those matchups. Against non-playoff teams, Prescott cleaned up, with 22 touchdowns to three interceptions and a 7-2 record. For his career, Prescott is 9-17 against eventual playoff teams. Of course, the Cowboys' defense has been a major issue the past few seasons too.
That record will change with better a Dallas defense around him, some voters say.
"He can throw it deep into the playoffs because of his ability to be accurate from the pocket at all levels and also extend plays with his legs," a veteran NFL quarterback said.
8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Highest ranking: 5 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: 6
Still the toughest evaluation on the list, Jackson earned more top-five votes than Prescott and Stafford combined, yet many left him off the ballot altogether. He remains one of the game's most breathtaking playmakers, and his intangibles as a tough, vocal, team-first leader resonate.
But since entering the NFL in 2018, Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 22 of his 37 starts, the most in the NFL during that span. The next closest is Sam Darnold with 19.
"People are figuring him out a little bit," said a veteran NFL offensive player. "Those guys on the list, in the two-minute drill, they can go do it. Not sure he's there yet. The running is great, but when you have to play from behind and throw, that can be very tough."
Many believe those issues aren't all on Jackson. The offense must change to help him evolve, one NFL quarterback said.
"He can become a better passer if they put more on him to do so," the quarterback said. "But if they continue to build a fence around him that's RPO gimmick type of stuff only utilizing his running skills, I think they will never score enough to make a deep run."
An AFC scout said Baltimore had failed in the past to surround Jackson with the same arsenal that in-his-prime Colin Kaepernick got in San Francisco. That mobile quarterback who was also coached by coordinator Greg Roman had Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis.
"[Jackson] might not be that accurate, down-in, down-out passer, but you can tailor things around him and he can have more success in that area," the scout said. "It's not like he can't make the throws. He can."
9. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 23 | Last year's ranking: Unranked
Herbert has the NFL's attention in a big way, appearing on as many ballots as Prescott and Stafford. He didn't have any top-five votes, but evaluators had a difficult time keeping him off after an explosive rookie year with the Chargers.
He's hard to ignore in person, too.
"Big as hell. Looks like Megatron," a Pro Bowl running back said of the 6-foot-6, 237-pound passer. "He's going to be a factor for a long time."
Herbert broke several NFL rookie passing records, including passing touchdowns (31) and completions (396). He was dominant in six wins, with an 82.1 Total QBR, 304.2 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to one interception, punctuating a stellar year with a 72.1% completion rate over the final four weeks.
"He and Josh Allen are very similar -- that's the way the league is going, the prototype," a veteran NFL quarterback said. "Huge arm, can stand in there and throw, and [he's] athletic to make plays.
"The throws he was making as a rookie, to hang in there and deliver, almost 60 yards in the air off his back foot while getting drilled, rookies don't make those types of plays unless [they're a] special player."
10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Highest ranking: 8 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 23 | Last year's ranking: Honorable mention
After NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019, Murray looked destined to crack the top 10 after Year 2. He did, but not convincingly. The voting drop-off after Herbert was significant, with Murray winning a tiebreaker with Matt Ryan.
The playmaking quarterback tied for the NFL lead with 14 completions of 40-plus yards, and his 819 rushing yards trailed only Jackson among quarterbacks. Murray's arm strength and release are impressive, with one NFL quarterback saying he can "throw the s--- out of the ball."
But his play faded late in the season, with a 57.0 Total QBR over the season's final seven weeks, ranking 19th out of 32 eligible quarterbacks. Murray was ninth over the first 10 weeks, at 76.9.
"He's very talented. Some of issues are outside of him -- I don't think [the Cardinals'] style of play is conducive to winning big games late in the season," an AFC scout said. "Even though the NFL is more open with more passing, really good teams still put an emphasis on defense and running the ball. They are the complete opposite."
Fair or not, questions about Murray's leadership ceiling exist in some league circles. Some wonder if he's the type of player behind whom teammates rally, though they aren't in the locker room with him every day. Others say he's simply reserved or quiet, which isn't a terminal flaw, but underscores the importance of letting his play talk for him.
Quarterbacks also receiving votes
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: "Always been disrespected in the media. Still the truest, outside of [Brady], drop-back passer in the NFL. Does it with his mind and his arm." -- veteran NFL quarterback
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: "He finally cut it loose as a passer last year. He was much more willing to challenge the defense. He was a high-percentage guy who didn't attack tight windows. But he did that this year." -- NFL personnel evaluator
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: "He's not what he once was but he can still be elite in spurts. He made a few throws in that [Colts] game last year that were high level. He can still do it." -- NFC scout
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: "He's solid -- not elite, but incredibly efficient. You can win big with that, with the right supporting cast." -- NFL coordinator
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: "How he stands in the pocket even though he knows he's going to get smacked -- really impressive. It's hard enough to play as a rookie, [I] couldn't imagine running an offense and having full control like he does." -- veteran NFL tight end
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: "He's a good player. He's easy to nitpick, but he's productive and great for that system." -- NFC exec
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns: "I could see him getting into that Dak class eventually. He doesn't have all the athletic tools of some other quarterbacks, but he's developing into a good passer." -- AFC scout
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts: "The culture in Indy with [Chris] Ballard, Frank [Reich] ... completely different vibe there [compared to] Philly. Don't care about how well you play week-to-week, they are feeding the consistency. Good line and running game. Will be absolutely perfect for Carson." -- veteran NFL offensive player