Who's the NFL's best running back? Wide receiver? Cornerback? What about the second-best defensive tackle -- after Aaron Donald? To preview the 2021 NFL season, we set out to answer those questions and much more.
We surveyed more than 50 league executives, coaches, scouts and players to help us stack the top 10 players at 11 different positions, from edge rushers to interior offensive linemen and all the way through tight ends. This is the second edition of these rankings, and several players moved up or dropped from last year's lists.
Here's how our process worked: Voters gave us their best 10 to 15 players at a position, then we compiled the results and ranked candidates based on number of top-10 votes, composite average, interviews, research and film-study help from ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen. We had several ties, so we broke them by isolating the two-man matchup with additional voting and follow-up calls. Each section is packed with quotes and nuggets from the voters on every guy -- even the honorable mentions.
The objective is to identify the best players right now for 2021. This is not a five-year projection or an achievement award. Who's the best today? Pretty simple.
We'll roll out a position per day over the next 11 days. Here's the schedule:
Week 1: edge rushers (July 5), interior defensive line (July 6), off-ball linebackers (July 7), cornerbacks (July 8), safeties (July 9), offensive tackles (July 10), interior offensive line (July 11)
Week 2: quarterbacks (July 12), running backs (July 13), wide receivers (July 14), tight ends (July 15)
Paying running backs is supposed to be a gamble. We've heard for years about the position's short shelf life and cautionary tales of declining play after cashing out.
This year's top-10 running back class defies that logic. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook signed massive deals worth more than $180 million in total, and they rewarded that faith with stellar production in 2020. They surpassed 5,700 yards as a trio, along with 55 total touchdowns and a collective vault up this year's rankings.
Meanwhile, last year's top three battled injuries and production drop-offs, while talented backs out of Green Bay and Indianapolis stated their cases.
Here, league execs, coaches and players try to separate fact from fiction, resulting in a few surprises along the way. Let's start with the No. 1 back:
1. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 6
Age: 27 | Last year's ranking: 5
It's tough to vote against a member of the 2,000-yard club. Henry became the eighth NFL player to crack that threshold thanks to a massive workload (378 carries) and 34 broken tackles, tops in the league.
Some coaches and scouts prefer versatility in the passing game, which isn't Henry's strength. He has never caught more than 20 passes in a season. But Henry is so overwhelming as a pure runner -- with an offense built around his every move -- that he didn't slip past sixth on any ballot.
His 1,073 yards after contact topped all tailbacks by more than 300 yards.
"If you're comfortable staying patient with 2- and 3-yard gains in the first half, knowing those same runs will turn into 8-yard runs in the second half, then he's by far the best player at this position," an NFC offensive coach said.
An NFC scout added: "He wears your ass out. He's a train."
And a stat to hop aboard: Henry averages 10.87 mph when crossing the line of scrimmage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. No other running back with 150-plus carries surpassed that (though quarterback Lamar Jackson did, at 13.45). Henry's 80% third-down conversion rate is also absurd.
One thing to watch with Henry this season is his workload. Since 2018 and including the playoffs, Henry has put up 997 carries, 102 more than the next-highest back (Ezekiel Elliott). Will that workload catch up to him?
2. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 8
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 4
Last summer, enough evaluators preferred Kamara to Christian McCaffrey to prompt a double take, though McCaffrey finished two spots ahead of the Saints tailback, at No. 2.
A year later, Kamara has surpassed McCaffrey convincingly, with several first-place votes and a healthy push of Henry for the top spot.
"His balance is incredible. One of the smoothest players in the league, but he also plays with power," an NFC exec said.
It's wild that the league's second-best rusher doesn't own a 1,000-yard-rushing season over a four-year career. But Kamara simply needs the ball more than he needs a rushing title. He is one of three NFL players with at least 80 receptions in his first four seasons in the NFL, joining two receivers -- teammate Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry -- in the exclusive club. His 711 yards after the catch led all NFL players.
Kamara's 9.1 yards per catch was the most among running backs with at least 50 targets (and higher than receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster), and his 11.7 rushes per touchdown also led all tailbacks.
"If I was building a team, he would be my running back," a high-ranking NFL exec said. "He's the perfect modern back."
3. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 7
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 6
Cook followed a contract extension with his best season yet, posting career highs in attempts (312), rushing yards (1,557), rushing touchdowns (16) and yards per carry (5.0).
He did all this despite missing two games. A full season would have pushed him closer to an 1,800-yard clip.
"I always look for versatility -- catch the ball out of the backfield, run outside the tackles and display explosive traits," said an AFC exec who voted Cook at No. 1. "Cook exhibits that better than anyone else."
Cook's 91 rushing first downs are second to Henry's 98 despite 66 fewer carries (378 to 312). He has caught at least 40 passes in each of the past three years and is a one-cut dynamo in the red zone, producing 222 yards on 58 carries inside the 20, highest among backs with more than 30 red zone attempts.
4. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 8
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 7
After he ranked seventh last year, Chubb's dominance was on full display during Cleveland's playoff run, helping him jump three spots. Evaluators wanted to see more and got it, with Chubb averaging 5.6 yards per carry for 1,067 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 12 games.
"Best pure runner in football," an NFC exec said. "I'd take him over Henry because he's a little more explosive."
Chubb is good for a 20-plus-yard run nearly every week, with 12 such runs on 190 attempts, or once every 15.8 runs. Henry averaged 20-plus yards on every 23.6 carries.
The Browns lined up and gave Chubb the ball when they wanted to reach the end zone. Chubb's 15.8 rushes per touchdown led the league among volume backs.
5. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 11
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 2
McCaffrey was never going to fall far. He's just 18 months removed from becoming the third tailback ever to post 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.
"He can do it all," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "Complete back. Footwork and lateral quickness, there's probably nobody better."
But missing 13 games last season with a high-ankle sprain and a shoulder injury affected his standing. Some evaluators aren't quite sure what to expect in 2021.
"If you value durability as far as criteria, then I'm not sure he's going to hold up," an NFL offensive coach said. "Love the player, but at that size (5-foot-11, 205 pounds) with the injuries, I'm just not sure."
Supporters expect McCaffrey to anchor the Panthers' offense as an elite slot receiver and big-play machine for new quarterback Sam Darnold. More explosive plays will be the answer. None of McCaffrey's 59 rushes last season went for more than 15 yards.
6. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 12
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: 1
Barkley broke a tie with McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott for last year's top spot because he had the most No. 1 votes by a wide margin.
He still found his way atop a few ballots this year, but his recovery from a torn ACL is a concern. Having a big 2021 is hardly a slam dunk, at least early on, as running backs often need time to regain explosion. And Barkley wasn't impressive in limited action in 2020, with 34 yards on 19 carries and an average of 0.84 yards per rush after first contact, worst among the top 10 on this list.
He is still an eye-test guy for many: Watch him play, how defenses assign four or five defenders to his every move, and you'll understand.
"Still has the rare combination of speed and explosion and size and elusiveness," an AFC scout said. "He's kind of been a victim of a bad supporting cast. He does things as well or better than anybody on the list."
The Giants added a few offensive playmakers this offseason, which should help take some of the focus off Barkley.
7. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 12
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 3
Some teams still view Elliott as the most natural downhill rusher in the game because of his combination of speed, power and balance.
"They need to give Zeke some of Dak's money," an AFC defensive coach said. "He scares you the most on that offense."
Why Elliott fell in this year's rankings is easy to answer: lack of juice. He has seven rushes of 20-plus yards since 2019 and zero runs of more than 40. That's the worst explosive-play production on this list. Some personnel people believe Elliott appears less explosive on film since signing his $75 million extension before the 2019 season.
"Doesn't look the same, and he fumbles too much," an NFC offensive coach said.
Elliott has fumbled five or more times in three of his five NFL seasons.
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told The Dallas Morning News that Elliott is in "the best shape of his life" entering 2021, so perhaps the talented back will return to his form from 2016-18, when he had a combined 30 rushes of 20-plus yards.
8. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: 13
Age: 26 | Last year's ranking: Honorable mention
Jones narrowly missed the list last year but qualified in convincing fashion this year, earning a top-10 vote on nearly every ballot.
He needed only 201 carries to produce 1,104 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, thanks in part to a stellar 2.44 yards per rush after first contact. Jones also produced as a pass-catcher with 47 receptions for 355 yards.
"A little bit a product of the [Green Bay] scheme but has big-play ability," an NFC exec said. "Can make plays on the perimeter and does a nice job on screen game. Has the juice to alter games."
Jones is one of the best stories of the group, a former fifth-round pick who mushroomed from third-stringer to Pro Bowler on a $48 million contract.
9. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: 8
Mixon's staying power was one of the more surprising developments at the position. He was a fixture on top-10 ballots despite playing six games last season and averaging a pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry.
But those were six more games in which to view Mixon as an all-around back with ideal size (6-1, 220 pounds) and the ability to run through or past defenders.
"The more teams that play against him, the more respect he gets," an NFC offensive coach said. "He has all the tools to be really good. He just plays on a bad team, and that's probably holding him back. I'm curious if the scheme, once they solidify that line a little more, will use him in more effective ways."
10. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 23 | Last year's ranking: 9
Jacobs and Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor were locked into a 10th-place tie, with Jacobs earning a slight edge after a series of tiebreaker votes.
Taylor's explosion is undeniable. He posted seven runs of 20-plus yards, including three of more than 40, and his maximum speed while crossing the line of scrimmage was 20.97 mph, second to Philadelphia's Miles Sanders (21.09).
Meanwhile, Jacobs, despite a sluggish 3.9 yards per carry in Year 2, is a determined back, with 479 rushing yards after contact last year (sixth in the NFL). And Jacobs has 46 broken tackles since 2019, ranking no lower than eighth in either season.
One AFC exec said Jacobs is more decisive between the tackles than Taylor at this point, though Taylor is coming.
"Jacobs is a load," the exec said. "Taylor is still learning, but he'll be there soon."
Honorable mention
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: "He'll be a top-5 back by the end of the season. Watch him in the second half of last year. He's coming." -- AFC scout
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns: "He might be the best overall back in Cleveland. He's a combination of [Dalvin] Cook and [Derrick] Henry." -- AFC exec
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: "He was my favorite back in the draft last year -- strong and powerful but has lateral movement. Great fit with Andy Reid." -- NFC exec
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles: "He's underrated. In a better scheme for backs, he'd be a prominent guy. Great burst." -- AFC defensive coach